Senior Ladies Ranking predictions: 2019-2020

[monochrom3]

I am not brave enough to make my own predictions yet - still, I have my doubts about Alina's future prospects, tbh. Seeing how much struggle she had with jumps all last season - and how much she struggles with them even now, at shows - and considering her rather fragile psyche and certain weariness from two very hard seasons and lack of sport ambitions/motivation she had before - and is definitely having now even more (and missing majority of Novogorsk training too) - I wouldn't be surprised that she can bomb her RusNat performance again and miss national team spot despite all help from judges. It rather plausible scenario, btw.

I didn't leave her out. I have her top 3. I have a feeling Alina may withdrawl from the GP and take this year off. I don't think Zhenya will factor into the top. I think 3A, Rika and Lilbet for the top, with either Kaori , Young You or Liza sneaking in for the last spot. Overall, I think this will be the year of Rika.

I don't understand why Alina withdrawing from GPs is still an argument now. Girl chose her assignments, had her name submitted for them and is training every moment that she isn't doing shows. Even during shows, she's training. Elucidus making implications about her not being motivated enough because she isn't at trainings or the current state of her jumps is, in all honesty, premature. She's doing 3Lz-3Lo-3Lo and 3Lz-3T-3Lo in practices while in Japan for FaOI a couple of weeks back(with videos), and while she doesn't land all the jumps in shows, so does basically everyone else, even the ones who've been in training the whole summer. Skater Adam Rippon once likened jumping in exhibition lighting as trying to jump in the dark, and add to that show lighting, there's also the fact that show rinks are also hella tiny. Also to say that she has a fragile psyche or lacks "sport motivation" – this is a skater who won Gold at worlds after a hell of a tough season, and stuck it together when it mattered most while every other major contender, bombed. This is a skater who has herself said she can't leave Figure Skating, that she tried to, to leave and live a normal life, but found she was drawn back to it, again and again and that's why she's still competing today.

Like it or not, she's still got the most competitive layout out of all the ladies without a quad, and has made it a point to come back to compete for a full season after an Olympic Gold medal (that no other skater has done) and WON. Its fair to think she may not win Gold again, or even podium, that's your opinion and fair game to speculate and that's what this thread is about. But to discount her as a non-entity because "she's probably going to withdraw"? Seriously?

 

[Ulrica]

... and has made it a point to come back to compete for a full season after an Olympic Gold medal (that no other skater has done)...

Just want to point out that this is not true, Yuzuru also competed the full season after his first olympic gold.

Regarding everything else, it really makes no sense to argue with people who seem to predict the future, truth is we don't know what will happen or what it's going on on the minds of these athletes, we'll just have to wait and see (and be optimistic about it, of course).

 

[Skater Boy]

I think the talk was about ladies in respect to competing. Not everything is about Yuzuru lol. Still remember peoplegave up on Evgenia last year - you just never know.

 

[MrECartman]

Here are my Senior Ladies Ranking prediction for the upcoming season:

1. Trusova (different quads + nerves of steel + fearless determination + Senior PCS bump)
2. Scherbakova (4Z + Senior PCS bump - seems a bit fragile/inconsistent)
3. Kihira (3A + 4S + high PCS - inconsistency)
4. Tursunbayeva (4S + 3A - lower PCS)
5. Tuktamysheva (3A - lower PCS)
6. Zagitova (3Z3L + high PCS - inconsistency)
7. Kostornaya (consistency with 3-3's + Senior PCS bump)
8. Sakamoto (consistency with 3-3's + good PCS)
9. Tennell (3Z3L/3Z3T + consistency - lower PCS)
10. Medvedeva (3S3L + high PCS - inconsistency/lower tech content)

Now let's see how it all works out..can't wait for the season to commence!

 

[skatingfan200]

I hate doing microscopic analyses, but oh well..

Anna doesn't have a perfect lutz technique, but her edge seems outside to me.
Moreover, it seems outside enough to escape being called a let alone flat-edge, and obviously a flutz
https://imgur.com/pX0dtVt

For people judging lutzes, it's important to see the edge at the moment second foot hits the ice, picks in, (not the moment skater leaves the ice!), because prerotating doesn't equal a wrong edge.
For Anna, if we take a screen shot a little later, when she's already taking off, the edge will in fact seem flat at worst (which isn't a flutz btw).

Important is also the camera angle. The best view is from behind to judge a lutz edge.

https://s2.imagebanana.com/file/190309/FTFZPEU9.PNG

 

[[email protected]]

I fear the Russian ladies might find themselves in a tough spot. If puberty hits the new Russian threats and Alina, Evgeni still struggle then it rests upon Liza to land the 3A since doesn't have he components. Japan could dominate the GP finals Kaori, Rika, Wakaba and or SAtoko, then add ET and Bradie. Though I do think or hope one would at least make it even if Alina and Evgenia can't compete with the quadsters.

Your doom and gloom forecasts regarding Russian ladies are one of the visiting cards of this board. They are going since when, 2015? So far, the only big setback Russian ladies had was during post Olympic worlds, which, well, do not mean a lot. So that based on the recent past I could assure you: everything will be OK!

 

[Fluture]

Your doom and gloom forecasts regarding Russian ladies are one of the visiting cards of this board. They are going since when, 2015? So far, the only big setback Russian ladies had was during post Olympic worlds, which, well, do not mean a lot. So that based on the recent past I could assure you: everything will be OK!

The Russians have 7 ladies who could make the team and medal at most competitions. And they only have three spots. I doubt all of them will go through puberty at the same time lol.

If I had to make a guess, I‘d say rusfed will want Alina and Sasha as a lock for the Russian team. Then Zhenya, Alena, Liza, Anna and Sofia can battle for the remaining spot. Anna and Liza have the TES, so if they deliver it will be one of them. Zhenya and Alena will get very good PCS but they have lower technical content. If others make mistakes and they have a solid GP season, they could make the team. Sofia, I feel like, won‘t have the best chances. She‘s consistent but there will be more ladies in Russia next season who are like that. She‘d need something more to make the team. Overall, I feel like Russia has one of the best, if not the best shots at gold at every major competition. Only Japan can compete with them, imo. (Edit: I forgot about Tursynbaeva. Sorry, Lil’Bet. After Worlds, it‘s obvious that she‘s a serious contender as well. ) Rika, Satoko, Mai, Kaori, Wakaba are strong as well even though I could only see Rika going for the Worlds Gold she missed last year. But who knows. It will be a fierce battle indeed.

My prediction is that Rika, Alina and Sasha will be the main contenders. Do we know anything about Kaori? Is she planning to introduce a 3A? This could change her placement in predictions and rankings as well.

 

[SkateSkates]

I think it will be hard to rank the ladies in a definitive order next season. Gone are the days where a single skater will dominate for an entire season. I think (and hope) that there will be a serious fight for all podiums, which will be rotated among the top ladies throughout the season. It’s much more interesting that way (in my opinion).

Contenders include:
Russia: Alina, Liza, Evgenia, Sasha, Anna, Alena
Japan: Kaori, Rika, Mai
USA: Bradie
Kazakhstan: Elizabet
Outside contenders: Satoko, Wakaba, Eunsoo, Young, Mariah, Sofia. Did not include them in the main list due to URs (Satoko), injury recovery (Wakaba), lower scoring potential (Mariah/Sofia), unclear coaching situation (Eunsoo), inconsistency (Young)

 

[Dreamer57]

I'm guessing it's just me who thinks that the most probable skaters to reach GPF are Alina and Elizabet?

Elizabet has had a phenomenal rise in the last season from 5th & 6th in her GP events to winning silver in the universiade, 4CC and Worlds. She's 19 now so more likely to have consistency than her younger peers?

Alina won worlds and has the highest total score without needing any quad or triple axel. Most of the other skaters I've seen listed need these jumps in order to be competitive.

My prediction is that Rika, Alina and Sasha will be the main contenders. Do we know anything about Kaori? Is she planning to introduce a 3A? This could change her placement in predictions and rankings as well.

Yes, Kaori has said in an interview somewhere that she wants to bring in a 3A by nationals!

 

[Fluture]

I'm guessing it's just me who thinks that the most probable skaters to reach GPF are Alina and Elizabet?

Elizabet has had a phenomenal rise in the last season from 5th & 6th in her GP events to winning silver in the universiade, 4CC and Worlds. She's 19 now so more likely to have consistency than her younger peers?

Alina won worlds and has the highest total score without needing any quad or triple axel. Most of the other skaters I've seen listed need these jumps in order to be competitive.

Yes about Alina. She has probably the best reputation of all the ladies as she‘s the reigning Worlds AND Olympic Champ. If she lands her stuff, she‘ll be in the run for the gold every single time. Her GP events also are pretty doable. Of course crazy things can happen all the time but barring disaster, she should be a definite lock for the GPF.

I‘m a bit more hesitant about Elizabet, however. Yes, she is a Worlds medalist and deservedly so. But she peaked later in the season, her GP events weren‘t very strong. Her Worlds spot is safe, so she doesn‘t need to be on at every single competition. If she keeps the momentum she built last season and competes like she did at Worlds I‘d say she has great chances. However, she‘s facing the likes of Liza and Anna at her GP events, so she‘ll need to be consistent.

The one lady I think is most likely to make the GPF, however, is the following: Sasha Trusova. She’s moving up now, first senior season, and she’ll be hungry. Say what you want about her but she has what it takes - the right mindset. It very much reminds me of a young Evgenia’s. She’s confident, hardworking, determined and has a true fighting spirit. Maybe she‘s not going to land every quad she attempts but she‘ll make sure to get every single point on all her other elements every single time. I‘d put her at the very top of every single prediction for this season, simply for the fact that I see the head of a champion on her shoulders. And this is what you need. Quads won‘t help you if you don‘t know how to compete. Sasha does.

So, personally, I believe that Sasha and Alina have the best chances for the GPF. Alina because of momentum, reputation and relatively “easier“ GP events and Sasha because... well... she is Sasha.

Yes, Kaori has said in an interview somewhere that she wants to bring in a 3A by nationals!

Well, that could change the game then. She improved greatly in PCS by Worlds so if she adds a 3A to that - watch out! We‘ll have to see how her first attempts are but if she really does a 3A, she‘ll be in the mix for a Worlds medal, maybe even Gold.

But honestly, I feel like predictions are harder than ever this year. There are like 10 girls who could make the podium at Worlds on an given day... The predictions game will be fun this year.

 

[ruga]

I think that Alina and Sasha T. have rather easy paths to GPF. Alina could lose to Kostornaia only in case of a meltdown and to Kihira, but only if Rika is squeaky clean, so she will get 2+2 at worst, which basically guarantees the final.

Sasha will also face Kihira once and Medvedeva twice. Medvedeva should not be hard to beat for her if she does at least one cleanish quad and keeps +3Loop combo. Kihira may beat her if she makes a mistake, but that won't make a big difference. Trusova will go 1+1 or 1+2. At worst, 2+2 or 1+3.

When it comes to Tursynbaeva, I'm not so sure. Her components are rising, but are not high enough to keep her at the top of she makes mistakes. And she wasn't very consistent at the beginning of this season. She will face Shcherbakova and Tuktamysheva twice and Sakamoto once. On a good day she could beat them all, but on a worse one she could finish 4th or 3rd. Her main opponents aren't that consistent either, so you can put them in any order when making predictions. So she could make the final with 1+1 or 1+2 but may as well get 3+3 or 3+4 and miss it.

 

[yume]

At 2015 GPF, all ladies had qualified by winning gold +Silver. So everyone had won a GP. Maybe this year too skaters will need to do 1+2 at least to get in. Since the field is very competitive.

 

[ruga]

At 2015 GPF, all ladies had qualified by winning gold +Silver. So everyone had won a GP. Maybe this year too skaters will need to do 1+2 at least to get in. Since the field is very competitive.

I feel like in a competitive field it's even harder to get such good results, because each mistake is costly and there are quite a few competitors ready to take your spot. This year's America, Canada and Japan GP fields are very good examples with 3-4 girls who could make the podium in any order. Although the total qualifying scores of the finalists will be 15-20 points higher than last year.

 

[SkateSkates]

I feel like in a competitive field it's even harder to get such good results, because each mistake is costly and there are quite a few competitors ready to take your spot. This year's America, Canada and Japan GP fields are very good examples with 3-4 girls who could make the podium in any order. Although the total qualifying scores of the finalists will be 15-20 points higher than last year.

It’s crazy to think that you might need to be able to exceed 215 to even make the podium at every event

 

[yume]

Yes, crazy when you think that Samodurova got her ticket with less than 200 points at both events last year.

 

[SkateSkates]

Yes, crazy when you think that Samodurova got her ticket with less than 200 points at both events last year.

Very crazy. Even if we take into account lower scores at the start of the season, I don’t see how it will be possible for a similar scenario to take place this season. 200+ will probably be needed for top 5 at skate America

 

[voolfee]

Here are my Senior Ladies Ranking prediction for the upcoming season:

1. Trusova (different quads + nerves of steel + fearless determination + Senior PCS bump)
2. Scherbakova (4Z + Senior PCS bump - seems a bit fragile/inconsistent)
3. Kihira (3A + 4S + high PCS - inconsistency)
4. Tursunbayeva (4S + 3A - lower PCS)
5. Tuktamysheva (3A - lower PCS)
6. Zagitova (3Z3L + high PCS - inconsistency)
7. Kostornaya (consistency with 3-3's + Senior PCS bump)
8. Sakamoto (consistency with 3-3's + good PCS)
9. Tennell (3Z3L/3Z3T + consistency - lower PCS)
10. Medvedeva (3S3L + high PCS - inconsistency/lower tech content)

Now let's see how it all works out..can't wait for the season to commence!

I don't agree with such a low place of Alina. She isn't inconsistent, she had health problems at the Nationals and Euro, before FS at GPF. She also had chronic knee pains, this could be seen from the tapes on them. There were no tapes at the Worlds and on show, so there may be a problem with the knees is gone, because the growth has passed. I would put Alina in 2nd place.

1. Trusova (3 quads in LP + Senior PCS bump)
2. Zagitova (3Lz3Lp + very high PCS)
3. Kihira (3A + 4S + high PCS - inconsistency)
4. Scherbakova (4Lz + Senior PCS bump - inconsistent 4Lz)
5. Kostornaya (consistency with 3-3's + Senior PCS bump)
6. Tursynbayeva (4S + 3A - lower PCS - questions to consistency on 4S and 3A)
7. Tuktamysheva (3A - lower PCS - some inconsistency on 3A)
8. Sakamoto (high PCS - some inconsistency)
9. Miyahara (high PCS + new rules about URs - URs)
10. Medvedeva (high PCS + new rules about URs and edges - inconsistency/lower tech content)

 

[machaco17]

For some reason, I have a feeling this will be the worst season for Alina ( due to nerves) and this season will just be 3A vs Kihira.

 

[Lunalovesskating]

For some reason, I have a feeling this will be the worst season for Alina ( due to nerves) and this season will just be 3A vs Kihira.

We will see. I think this could also be a good season for Alina mentally, she ended the season on a high note after a difficult season, this could be a confidence booster. Also seems like her knees are less bothering her, haven't seen her wearing tapes during Worlds or at shows.

Don't forget Young You she has a 3A in her programs and landed one in her SP at competition last week. She supposedly lands 4Sals and 4Lutzes (also 4Ts?) In practices, attempted a 4Sal even in a practice at a competition last season.

I think at this point it is hard to predict who will dominate. Wakaba also wants to pull out her 3A, we have seen her land a clean one one or two years back. Kaori wants to pull out a 3A which is quite possible. I think until we haven't seen the Challenger competitions it is difficult to say who has potential to dominate this season.

 

[Fluture]

For some reason, I have a feeling this will be the worst season for Alina ( due to nerves) and this season will just be 3A vs Kihira.

Why, though? Realistically, everything points in the other direction (re Alina) She won Worlds, ended the season with the only title she was missing, has less problems with her knees (new spin variations in shows that require flexibility and strength in the knees and her wearing less tapes) and the pressure will all be on the new junior to senior wonders and whether they will land their quad jumps. She won‘t be in the spotlight as much and she won‘t be the one people expect to carry the entire team. This was what made her stumble last year, the insane expectations. Now she goes into the new season as the World Champ, yes, but also next to the quad wonders Trusova and Shcherbakova. The only question is what kind of programs she gets and how much she’s training at the moment. I’m still wondering whether the training camp in Novogorsk still going on or whether they are all already back in Moscow.

I know sometimes we just have a feeling that something’s going to happen and we can’t explain it. For me it‘s difficult to say, I have no feeling other than that Trusova is going to dominate. I don’t know about Kihira and the others but I guess (and hope!!!) they will do just fine and we‘ll see some great rivalries. In the end, though we will only realistically be able to make some predictions by the start of the new season, test skates and challenger events. Until then - it‘s all about feelings and speculations.