Senior Ladies Ranking predictions: 2019-2020

[SkateSkates]

Why, though? Realistically, everything points in the other direction (re Alina) She won Worlds, ended the season with the only title she was missing, has less problems with her knees (new spin variations in shows that require flexibility and strength in the knees and her wearing less tapes) and the pressure will all be on the new junior to senior wonders and whether they will land their quad jumps. She won‘t be in the spotlight as much and she won‘t be the one people expect to carry the entire team. This was what made her stumble last year, the insane expectations. Now she goes into the new season as the World Champ, yes, but also next to the quad wonders Trusova and Shcherbakova. The only question is what kind of programs she gets and how much she’s training at the moment. I’m still wondering whether the training camp in Novogorsk still going on or whether they are all already back in Moscow.

I know sometimes we just have a feeling that something’s going to happen and we can’t explain it. For me it‘s difficult to say, I have no feeling other than that Trusova is going to dominate. I don’t know about Kihira and the others but I guess (and hope!!!) they will do just fine and we‘ll see some great rivalries. In the end, though we will only realistically be able to make some predictions by the start of the new season, test skates and challenger events. Until then - it‘s all about feelings and speculations.

Based on Daniil’s Latest IG post they are still in novogorsk. I believe the camp is going on for 2 more weeks - it’s about a month an a half and began in early June. They will be back in moscow a couple of weeks before jr test skates.

 

[machaco17]

Why, though? Realistically, everything points in the other direction (re Alina) She won Worlds, ended the season with the only title she was missing, has less problems with her knees (new spin variations in shows that require flexibility and strength in the knees and her wearing less tapes) and the pressure will all be on the new junior to senior wonders and whether they will land their quad jumps. She won‘t be in the spotlight as much and she won‘t be the one people expect to carry the entire team. This was what made her stumble last year, the insane expectations. Now she goes into the new season as the World Champ, yes, but also next to the quad wonders Trusova and Shcherbakova. The only question is what kind of programs she gets and how much she’s training at the moment. I’m still wondering whether the training camp in Novogorsk still going on or whether they are all already back in Moscow.

I have a feeling Alina doesn't do well when 3A's around example Russian Cup and I don't see any problem with those juniors going senior , see Kihira she has spectacular senior debut ( but I really dunno, suppose this is a prediction thread), I'll just saved this post for my future reference and see if I'm right.

 

[zenskate]

I have a feeling Alina doesn't do well when 3A's around example Russian Cup and I don't see any problem with those juniors going senior , see Kihira she has spectacular senior debut ( but I really dunno, suppose this is a prediction thread), I'll just saved this post for my future reference and see if I'm right.

I don't agree with this. You probably mean the Russian National Competition, and at that one Alina was skating with the skin of her ankle peeling off horribly due to burns so you can't say that the results of that competition were because of mental problems.

The 3A going senior adds pressure, but also removes pressure. Last season, Alina had to defend not only her own position as top lady, but also Russia's position as the country with the top ladies and Eteri's reputation as the coach of the top ladies. And when it counted, Alina did exactly that. Worlds was a test of her mental strength as much as her skating, and she has 3 gold medals to prove how great she is in both .

The next medal that matters for Alina is in 2022. I think she and her coaching team understand that.

 

[Jontor]

I have finally made my GPF predictions. This is going to be superhard but here goes...

Trusova
Kihira
Shcherbakova
Zagitova
Sakomoto

and the last place will be a battle between Kostornaia and Tursynbaeva - I think Kostornaia gets it.

 

[Roast Toast]

Out of the 3A, I still think Shcherbakova is more of a wild card than Kosto tbh. If she were to miss the quad at the wrong time it could really mess with her PCS and GOE growth.

 

[YuBluByMe]

Out of the 3A, I still think Shcherbakova is more of a wild card than Kosto tbh. If she were to miss the quad at the wrong time it could really mess with her PCS and GOE growth.

Agreed. I haven’t forgotten that Shcerbakova was off the podium at JGPF, almost placing last. It will be miraculous if all three Russian girls have a successful senior season, but my money’s on Kostornaia being the breakout. My premature predictions for GPF Final are as follows:

Rika Kihira
Alina Zagitova
Alena Kostornaia
Alexandra Trusova
Kaori Sakamoto
Wakaba Higuchi

 

[Jontor]

Agreed. I haven’t forgotten that Shcerbakova was off the podium at JGPF, almost placing last. It will be miraculous if all three Russian girls have a successful senior season, but my money’s on Kostornaia being the breakout. My premature predictions for GPF Final are as follows:

Rika Kihira
Alina Zagitova
Alena Kostornaia
Alexandra Trusova
Kaori Sakamoto
Wakaba Higuchi

Interesting! Higuchi is a wild card for me this season as we didn't see much of her last season. But if she does well I will be delighted

 

[figurefan0726]

Agreed. I haven’t forgotten that Shcerbakova was off the podium at JGPF, almost placing last. It will be miraculous if all three Russian girls have a successful senior season, but my money’s on Kostornaia being the breakout. My premature predictions for GPF Final are as follows:

Rika Kihira
Alina Zagitova
Alena Kostornaia
Alexandra Trusova
Kaori Sakamoto
Wakaba Higuchi

Ahhh that would be my dream GPF! However, something tells me Mai will be there instead of Wakaba.

 

[neud]

Agreed. I haven’t forgotten that Shcerbakova was off the podium at JGPF, almost placing last. It will be miraculous if all three Russian girls have a successful senior season, but my money’s on Kostornaia being the breakout. My premature predictions for GPF Final are as follows:

Rika Kihira
Alina Zagitova
Alena Kostornaia
Alexandra Trusova
Kaori Sakamoto
Wakaba Higuchi

Do you predict that literally nobody from Cup of China (even winner) will qualify to GPF? And 4 ladies from Internationaux de France will qualify? How is that possible mathematically?

 

[Ice Dance]

Do you predict that literally nobody from Cup of China (even winner) will qualify to GPF? And 4 ladies from Internationaux de France will qualify? How is that possible mathematically?

Well, it probably is mathematically possible. We've seen winners miss the GPF before. And we've seen athletes with 4th place finishes qualify, usually when they have a win as well. But the odds are very low as it requires a great deal of volatility in the field--more than we usually see among the ladies. A win & a 4th place will supersede a 2nd & a third. So . . .

Say Higuchi won SA
Kostornaia won IDF
Zagitova won NHK
And Sakamoto earned two 2nd places.

Their odds would still be decent to qualify for the GPF. Then the winner at CoC finished fifth or below in a second event. Which, you know, is not impossible. Tursynbaeva's, Mihara's, Tuktamysheva's, & Daleman's results have certainly spanned that gauntlet relative to other ladies in the GP field. Miyahara is generally a rock, but could be outjumped by at least three ladies at COC if they have a great day. And Scherbakova was kind of up & down herself last season so among the deeper senior fields, that kind of variability is not impossible. It's just not likely.

 

[YuBluByMe]

Do you predict that literally nobody from Cup of China (even winner) will qualify to GPF? And 4 ladies from Internationaux de France will qualify?

Yup, that’s exactly what I’m predicting.

How is that possible mathematically?

It’s possible. I’m predicting that two of the Tuktamysheva-Tursynbaeva-Scherbakova trio will place below 4th at Skate America. When you consider the lack of quality in their skating and inconsistency and lack of quality of their big money elements, then it’s actually not such an unlikely scenario. If this happens and Kostornaia beats Zagitova in France, then both she and Higuchi can qualify. However, Higuchi has to either win Skate America OR Tuktamysheva place below bronze position in China. Certainly not impossible if you have an imagination. And you must have one if you are a fan of figure skating. Rarely do things go as expected!

 

[neud]

Well I don't have imagination enough to predict Higuchi (181) placed higher then Tuktamysheva (233), Tennell (226), Tursynbaeva (225), Sakamoto (224), Shcherbakova (220) and Lim (206).

 

[Ziotic]

Well I don't have imagination enough to predict Higuchi (181) placed higher then Tuktamysheva (233), Tennell (226), Tursynbaeva (225), Sakamoto (224), Shcherbakova (220) and Lim (206).

She was injured last season, but has a world silver medal and cracked 200 on several occasions. She’s also landed 3A before so you must have very little imagination.

 

[yume]

I dont think it's accurate to compare the score of someone who performed far fom her best/potential and didn't compete in 2nd part of the season, with scores of other skaters who performed better or where clean (and scores got at WTT alias candies competition)
Higuchi has more potential scoring than that. Not saying she would necessarily score higher than theses skaters but she's definitely a 200+ skater if she's near clean. She scored 200+ at all her competitions in olympic season, even with mistakes.

 

[icetug]

Well I don't have imagination enough to predict Higuchi (181) placed higher then Tuktamysheva (233), Tennell (226), Tursynbaeva (225), Sakamoto (224), Shcherbakova (220) and Lim (206).

Seriously, it's not that easy predict who's at GPF just on a base of the previous season results.

Based on 2016/2017 season's best there should have been Medvedeva, Miyahara, Mihara, Osmond, Higuchi and Pogorilaya at 2017 GPF while we had Medvedeva, Zagitova (10th at SB list), Kostner (8th), Osmond, Sotskova (14th) and Higuchi.

Again in 2018 we had Kihira (18th at the SB list), Tuktamysheva (20th) and Samodurova (below 20th) instead of Medvedeva, Higuchi and Sotskova who got better results in 2017/2018 season.

It seems that one half of the GPF composition is quite unpredictable

 

[nussnacker]

I can only make my prediction for a few events now:

1. Skate Canada: 1)Trusova, 2)Kihira, 3)You
I think Trusova is most likely to win this event. To me personally she's a very brave and determined girl, and an epitome of a true fighter. Nerves, competition, those things don't get to her, she goes out to show what she's got every single time.
I don't know if Rika will be at her 100%, feels like pressure sometimes gets to her and she stumbles or misses things. But overall, I have more belief that Trusova will go out and deliver with fewer falls and pops than Rika.
I'm making a prediction (well more like really hoping) that Young will deliver a clean program with quads and 3A next season. She only has 1 event to worry about as of now, and I think that can push her to show her best skate because she's going to aim to peak for that event. As TomZ has been losing some students, I believe he'll focus more on Young in the coming season.

2. IdF: 1)Zagitova, 2)Kostornaya, 3)Sakamoto
With new found confidence after last season with some major wins for both, I expect Alina and Alyona take first two spots due to higher TES and PCS of Alina, and PCS and consistency of Alyona.
Kaori has been experiencing problems with delivering clean performances the whole last season, and there was always some sort of costly mistake to expect from her. With hew new PCS boost she got at worlds last season, I expect her to be third even if she makes mistakes.

3. RosT: 1)Trusova, 2)Medvedeva, 3)Konstantinova
Trusova has very little competition to her at this event, so I expect her to finish first.
Medvedeva was previously known for her consistency as her main weapon, has been experiencing some problems last season. By worlds it seemed like she largely managed to fight her demons and make a resurgence. However, I don't feel like it will be enough to beat Trusova even with falls.
Konstantinova seems like a skater, who rarely performs clean internationally. But maybe a home crowd will help her to deliver a clean performance at once.
Satoko has been experiencing some problems with her jumps in the latter half of the season compared to the first one, and also her show performances although shouldn't be used for conclusions, were looking very shaky in terms of her jumps. This leads me to believe that she might experience some problems in the new season.
I also believe that just like any home event, there might be some advantage for home athletes, so I guess also due to this Satoko might miss the podium.

 

[Elucidus]

1. Skate Canada: 1)Trusova, 2)Kihira, 3)You
I think Trusova is most likely to win this event.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Alas, as previous season showed - Sasha tends to underperform when being met with jetlag issues. Hence, her losing to Kostornaya at JGPF in Canada. It's hard to land quads consistently while not being in perfect physical form. And the fact the she grew couple of cms and wasn't able to entertain us with quads at last show in Japan, as usual - concerns me, tbh.. Puberty issues is still very real threat for all new Eteri princesses. This season and the next. Also, despite You's instagram quads - I would be more sure in Tennell's prospects. She was very strong at WTT. Also, picking first two GP events allows her to manage her form to peak just then - which can be quite convenient for her.

2. IdF: 1)Zagitova, 2)Kostornaya, 3)Sakamoto
With new found confidence after last season with some major wins for both, I expect Alina and Alyona take first two spots due to higher TES and PCS of Alina, and PCS and consistency of Alyona.

Alyona is not going to have high PCS at once because it's her first serious senior event (CS before is not going to influence judges much, I think). Remember how much PCS had Samodurova in her first GP event, for example?

3. RosT: 1)Trusova, 2)Medvedeva, 3)Konstantinova

I also believe that just like any home event, there might be some advantage for home athletes, so I guess also due to this Satoko might miss the podium.

You seem to forgot about the fact that ISU don't like podium sweeps by one country. Home advantage or not. Which was the main reason why Kostner's disaster skate scores were boosted so much at her last Euro, I believe. If they are ready to manipulate the scores this much for such reasons - why they can't do it again? Most likely they will try.

 

[nussnacker]

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Alas, as previous season showed - Sasha tends to underperform when being met with jetlag issues. Hence, her losing to Kostornaya at JGPF in Canada. It's hard to land quads consistently while not being in perfect physical form. And the fact the she grew couple of cms and wasn't able to entertain us with quads at last show in Japan, as usual - concerns me, tbh.. Puberty issues is still very real threat for all new Eteri princesses. This season and the next. Also, despite You's instagram quads - I would be more sure in Tennell's prospects. She was very strong at WTT. Also, picking first two GP events allows her to manage her form to peak just then - which can be quite convenient for her.


Alyona is not going to have high PCS at once because it's her first serious senior event (CS before is not going to influence judges much, I think). Remember how much PCS had Samodurova in her first GP event, for example?



You seem to forgot about the fact that ISU don't like podium sweeps by one country. Home advantage or not. Which was the main reason why Kostner's disaster skate scores were boosted so much at her last Euro, I believe. If they are ready to manipulate the scores this much for such reasons - why they can't do it again? Most likely they will try.

1) Sasha‘s 4T from the show practices
https://www.instagram.com/p/BzRsYnwF3-g/
I‘d dare to say it looks even better than before!
You might be right about jetlags, it’s very true, it happens. But I believe that this season this girl is coming with vengeance
And Young landed 3A in her summer broadmoor competition recently! I think she can do it

2) i don’t think Alyona‘s PCS would be very high in her first competition. But I think it can be high enough to outskate Kaori with a fall/pop. I expect at least 70-72, and I hope judges won’t lowball Alyona too much.
And those PCS marks are still pretty high, I meant more so that Alyona isn’t going to get 65 all of a sudden.

3) Russian sweep happened at Rostelecom before with Adelina making the podium and I remember Kaetlyn getting very generous marks at skate Canada once
I think it happens from time to time.

 

[macy]

Alyona is not going to have high PCS at once because it's her first serious senior event (CS before is not going to influence judges much, I think). Remember how much PCS had Samodurova in her first GP event, for example?

I don't think any of the 3A will have to worry too much about PCS because of all the hype and past results that are coming with them. Aliona is already a 2x Russian National medalist, JWC silver medalist, and most recently JGPF champion, Sasha once again won everything (except JGPF) this year, and Anna is JWC silver medalist and Russian National champion. these girls are expected to do very well and have much more momentum coming into seniors than Sofia had. while i don't expect them to be given the PCS of Alina, if they are lowballed I will be surprised.

 

[SkateSkates]

I don't think any of the 3A will have to worry too much about PCS because of all the hype and past results that are coming with them. Aliona is already a 2x Russian National medalist, JWC silver medalist, and most recently JGPF champion, Sasha once again won everything (except JGPF) this year, and Anna is JWC silver medalist and Russian National champion. these girls are expected to do very well and have much more momentum coming into seniors than Sofia had. while i don't expect them to be given the PCS of Alina, if they are lowballed I will be surprised.

Yes they will be starting from a much higher point - even if scores are lower at the beginning of the season, there’s no way any of the 3A will receive less than 30pcs in the SP like Sofia did at the start of the season. This is of course assuming they skate clean - a bombed program would obviously lower their PCS scores somewhat