USFS to Send Liu, Zhou to Nebelhorn Trophy | Page 3 | Golden Skate

USFS to Send Liu, Zhou to Nebelhorn Trophy

readernick

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Vincent is most likely to win Nebelhorn. But confirming the 3rd Olympic spot or not, he’ll get picked to the US Olympic team. There’s no chance usfs wouldn’t select someone who could, misses allowed, land 5 quads in the Olympic team event, 7 quads in the Olympic individual events and score over 300 to the Games.
I would not be so certain. If Vincent confirms the 3rd spot, then yes. It is hard to imagine him being left off the team. However, looking at Jason's body of work, I think he has a stronger argument to be put on the team.
 

mrrice

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 9, 2014
I would not be so certain. If Vincent confirms the 3rd spot, then yes. It is hard to imagine him being left off the team. However, looking at Jason's body of work, I think he has a stronger argument to be put on the team.
I agree about Jason however, If Vincent is on the Podium, I can't see the Committee passing over him. There is not another active US Man with a World Medal other Nathan.
 

Tahuu

On the Ice
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Dec 3, 2014
I would not be so certain. If Vincent confirms the 3rd spot, then yes. It is hard to imagine him being left off the team. However, looking at Jason's body of work, I think he has a stronger argument to be put on the team.
What really count is the potential to medal. The federation won’t care a top 10 certainty when there’s a medal possibility. If Vincent fails to deliver, so be it. If he delivers, that’s a medal count. 300 is a real medaling possibility.
 

SnowWhite

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Nov 30, 2016
Country
Canada
What really count is the potential to medal. The federation won’t care a top 10 certainty when there’s a medal possibility. If Vincent fails to deliver, so be it. If he delivers, that’s a medal count. 300 is a real medaling possibility.
If he fails to deliver at Nebelhorn, then he's going to have been responsible for the US not having a 3rd spot for the Olympics twice. That will absolutely count against him with the selection committee.

I absolutely expect Vincent to get the spot at Nebelhorn, and most likely be on the Olympic team, for the record. But acting like what he does at Nebelhorn doesn't matter at all for his chances is silly. Of course it does.
 

Amei

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Nov 11, 2013
If he fails to deliver at Nebelhorn, then he's going to have been responsible for the US not having a 3rd spot for the Olympics twice. That will absolutely count against him with the selection committee.

I absolutely expect Vincent to get the spot at Nebelhorn, and most likely be on the Olympic team, for the record. But acting like what he does at Nebelhorn doesn't matter at all for his chances is silly. Of course it does.

Delivering at Nebelhorn and losing the Olympic spot can be 2 separate things though, my understanding is to qualify the third spot he has to finish in the top 7 at Nebelhorn to earn the third Olympic spot. Looking at the current field for Nebelhorn, I could see Zhou messing up on multiple quads and still finishing in the top 7. The only skater that should be a challenge to Zhou for first place is Dmitri Aliev, if Zhou finishes lower than second in this field, IMO that would be failing to deliver at Nebelhorn even if he does finish in the top 7 and should count against him with the selection committee.
 

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode
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Delivering at Nebelhorn and losing the Olympic spot can be 2 separate things though, my understanding is to qualify the third spot he has to finish in the top 7 at Nebelhorn to earn the third Olympic spot. Looking at the current field for Nebelhorn, I could see Zhou messing up on multiple quads and still finishing in the top 7. The only skater that should be a challenge to Zhou for first place is Dmitri Aliev, if Zhou finishes lower than second in this field, IMO that would be failing to deliver at Nebelhorn even if he does finish in the top 7 and should count against him with the selection committee.
This is somewhat disingenuous. If this was a regular Nebelhorn, or Zhou was going as a non-qualifier, then sure, we could talk about "not delivering" meaning failing to medal or failing to beat Aliev or whatever. And in terms of BOW, a Challenger event is still going to mean less than the GP and last year's Worlds results.

But this is the Olympic season Nebelhorn. And he is going as a qualifier. That means "delivering" at Nebelhorn means only one thing: the Olympic spot. It doesn't matter if he gets that spot by winning or by finishing 8th. Everything else is superfluous. The only thing that matters is that he comes back with that spot. As far as the USFS are concerned he can fall on his butt or underrotate as many jumps as he likes as long as he gets that spot.

He should finish easily in the top 7. He could easily win this. He should accomplish his task without any concerns at all.

But he should have made the free skate in Stockholm, too.
 

dorispulaski

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Vincent is most likely to win Nebelhorn. But confirming the 3rd Olympic spot or not, he’ll get picked to the US Olympic team. There’s no chance usfs wouldn’t select someone who could, misses allowed, land 5 quads in the Olympic team event, 7 quads in the Olympic individual events and score over 300 to the Games.
The Olympic team event only has one skater for each discipline in the short program and one in the free skate. They are usually the same skater. I expect to see Nathan in both programs. He is extremely consistent, and the US needs those two first places if they are to have any hope to win a team medal.
 

dorispulaski

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Just curious. Since the discussion is all about Vincent, I take it you all are ok with Alysa being assigned to Nebelhorn?
 

Tavi...

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Feb 10, 2014
The Olympic team event only has one skater for each discipline in the short program and one in the free skate. They are usually the same skater. I expect to see Nathan in both programs. He is extremely consistent, and the US needs those two first places if they are to have any hope to win a team medal.

Since US took bronze in the 2018 team event despite despite Nathan’s 4th place finish in the SP and Adam’s 3rd place finish in the FS (and bronze in 2014 despite Jeremy’s 7th place SP/Jason’s 4th place FS), I’m curious why you’re so pessimistic about their chances for a team medal in 2022 absent two first place finishes by Nathan? Is it because you think other teams have improved so much? Because given Nathan is a strong contender for gold in the individual event, he may not want to skate both programs in the team event.
 

dorispulaski

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Since US took bronze in the 2018 team event despite despite Nathan’s 4th place finish in the SP and Adam’s 3rd place finish in the FS (and bronze in 2014 despite Jeremy’s 7th place SP/Jason’s 4th place FS), I’m curious why you’re so pessimistic about their chances for a team medal in 2022 absent two first place finishes by Nathan? Is it because you think other teams have improved so much? Because given Nathan is a strong contender for gold in the individual event, he may not want to skate both programs in the team event.
I was just pointing out that Vincent being on the Olympic team is immaterial to the US's medal chances in the team event.- Their best chance for a team medal is to have Nathan skate in the team event, and that's what I think they will do.

The non Olympic team event has 2 different Men. The Olympic event does not.
 

Spiralgraph

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I had this whole post that I have now edited to ask.. when were the rules changed for the team event? I wasn't aware only one man could be entered for both portions of the team event. Have I misunderstood something?
 

el henry

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I am also confused, but I may be misunderstanding.

The US has always entered two men in the Olympic team event: 2014, Jeremy/Jason, 2018, Nathan/Adam. I also think it unlikely that Nathan will want to skate both events, if he has the option, given that he has a good chance of medaling individually. (deliberately downplaying his chances).

:scratch2:
 

ladyjane

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I think @dorispulaski is referring to the World Team Trophy (the non Olympic team event) where you have 2 single skaters in men and women, 1 pair and 1 ID couple per team. All skaters in the 6 teams get to skate both a SP/RD and a FS/FD.

In the OG team event there's 1 single skater in men, 1 in women, 1 pair and 1 ID couple per team (10 teams). Only the 5 top teams (of the 10) get to skate the FS - again 1 man, 1 woman, 1 pair and 1 ID couple. However, a team may choose to have a different man skating the FS than the SP, a different woman, pair or ID couple with the restriction that you may only do 2 of these exchanges. In 2018 the US had different men and women skating the FS than the SP, while the pairs and ID couples skated both (there was only one pair present in any case).
 

Tahuu

On the Ice
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Dec 3, 2014
I was just pointing out that Vincent being on the Olympic team is immaterial to the US's medal chances in the team event.- Their best chance for a team medal is to have Nathan skate in the team event, and that's what I think they will do.

The non Olympic team event has 2 different Men. The Olympic event does not.
If consistent, Vincent skating the FS in the Olympic team event will be relevant. He can score higher than anyone other than Nathan and Yuzuru in the FS. However if he is not consistent throughout the season, Jason would be a better choice. Team USA would want to ensure a silver medal while keeping an eye on Team Russia or whatever name they’ll use and the gold.
 

Amei

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Nov 11, 2013
This is somewhat disingenuous. If this was a regular Nebelhorn, or Zhou was going as a non-qualifier, then sure, we could talk about "not delivering" meaning failing to medal or failing to beat Aliev or whatever. And in terms of BOW, a Challenger event is still going to mean less than the GP and last year's Worlds results.

But this is the Olympic season Nebelhorn. And he is going as a qualifier. That means "delivering" at Nebelhorn means only one thing: the Olympic spot. It doesn't matter if he gets that spot by winning or by finishing 8th. Everything else is superfluous. The only thing that matters is that he comes back with that spot. As far as the USFS are concerned he can fall on his butt or underrotate as many jumps as he likes as long as he gets that spot.

He should finish easily in the top 7. He could easily win this. He should accomplish his task without any concerns at all.

But he should have made the free skate in Stockholm, too.

No my post is not 'disingenuous'. Yes, in the grand scheme of things to the USFS what matters most is Vincent finishing in the top 7, which secures (based on my understanding) the third Men's Olympic spot, they don't particularly care too much if Vincent finishes first or seventh as long as they get that third spot for team selection. However, a second component to this is that Vincent needs to make his case for Olympic team (like every other US man not named Nathan Chen) and his last international competition which happened to be Worlds (the biggest non-Olympic event in figure skating) was a complete and total disaster, and based on the current list of participants if he finishes lower than second at Nebelhorn then he likely has had another disastrous skate which is failing to deliver under pressure (once again). So if he finishes 3-7th, he may deliver in securing that third spot for the US Olympic team, but he could also be delivering a debilitating blow to his shot at making the Olympic team because he's showing once again an inability to perform in an important competition.
 

Apple1078

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 6, 2020
I am also confused, but I may be misunderstanding.

The US has always entered two men in the Olympic team event: 2014, Jeremy/Jason, 2018, Nathan/Adam. I also think it unlikely that Nathan will want to skate both events, if he has the option, given that he has a good chance of medaling individually. (deliberately downplaying his chances).

:scratch2:
I agree. Besides, I think there could be a scheduling issue with the men's FS in the team event taking place the day before the men's SP in the individual event. I think it's the next day or only one day in-between. So I could see the U.S. entering 2 men in the team event (with Nathan only doing the sp).
 

Dawn825

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 19, 2021
I agree. Besides, I think there could be a scheduling issue with the men's FS in the team event taking place the day before the men's SP in the individual event. I think it's the next day or only one day in-between. So I could see the U.S. entering 2 men in the team event (with Nathan only doing the sp).
Agreed. Whatever the fed may want, Nathan has to agree to doing both events. Considering how stressed he's probably going to be for the individual SP bec of how last time went, I can't imagine him agreeing to do both portions of the team event right before it.
 

Tavi...

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 10, 2014
I was just pointing out that Vincent being on the Olympic team is immaterial to the US's medal chances in the team event.- Their best chance for a team medal is to have Nathan skate in the team event, and that's what I think they will do.

The non Olympic team event has 2 different Men. The Olympic event does not.

Hi Doris -

Not quite sure what you mean regarding the non-Olympic team event, but unless the rules have changed for the 2022 Olympic team event, countries are allowed to substitute skaters in 2 of the 4 disciplines. It’s the fed’s choice what disciplines to substitute, if any.

I think what the US does in 2022 will depend partly on medal strategy, but also on what their top skaters (eg Nathan) want to do. If Nathan opts out of one program in the Olympic team event, I’d guess the US will take that into consideration when deciding who else to name to the Olympic team.
 
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