Which layout does Trusova need to win?

Skatesocs

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Long post, intended for a very much sports-oriented debate. Please don't turn this into a bash fest.

This is not a thread for "how much value should jumps get vs spins/skating skills/step sequences" philosophy or something like that. I agree with the ISU that jumps are hardest and deserving of higher BV. It's definitely more of a thread about quality/judging/PCS/tech calls/if the SoV currently assigned is correct etc.

Having said that, how many quads does Trusova need to win with her skating quality? I agree that she should have won, say, the Russian junior nationals she used to win against the 7 triple programs we used to see there vs everyone else who skated there, or maybe even the junior world title she won when she was the only skater to be attempting quads there (her second title over Shcherbackova is perhaps more debatable). BUT I think arguments can be made that she shouldn't be scoring more than someone who attempts a 3A as their hardest element, but has more quality on their elements and skating than Trusova does. Let's consider how Trusova was skating this season, and with the programs she had. Here is how I break it down:

Yuna Kim, 2013 Worlds: Kim should be outscoring Trusova on the SP, no questions asked, with much better skating quality on everything, and with comparable tech content to boot. It's the LP where it's more debatable, with Kim going for 6 triples and no 3Lo. Her PCS should be far outscoring Trusova's best performance, and she has better quality on everything she attempts too, but I think Trusova with three fully rotated quads (even considering she doesn't attempt triple axels) should be beating her LP. Overall, it is surprising to me how close Kim gets to be with this set of performances despite no 3A or quads with simply the quality she put out. But Kim should lose here.

Mao Asada, 2014 Worlds: Asada should again be outscoring Trusova in the SP. And this time with the LP, despite a UR call I'd give her, and the step out she had, I'd still give her performance with a single 3A in it a slightly higher score than Trusova with three fully rotated quads. Overall, Asada should be beating Trusova with three rotated quads.

With those two out of the way, let's get to her main competition this season. None of them skated a legendary program, and all of them have lower skating quality than Kim and Asada.

Rika Kihira: I admit that I thought Kihira losing narrowly at SCI was the right result without looking at the tech calls with a fine-toothed comb - she attempted three 3As and has much better skating quality and programs, yes, but she didn't do any lutzes, and compared to Trusova attempting four quads, landing three of them - one of them a 4T+1Lo+3S - I felt her victory was right despite the fall, even though the margin was way overblown. BUT if Kihira's full layout with her 3Lz is to be considered, I think she should be beating Trusova even if she does 4 quads and lands all of them rotated.

Alena Kostornaia: Similar to Kihira, Kostornaia with three triple axels should also be coming out to a victory against a four-quad Trusova, but with the programs she had this season, the margin should be narrower than that of Kihira.

Anna Shcherbackova: Shcherbackova could have been the topic of this thread instead. But in her case, the analysis is easy. With two rotated quads, she should definitely be beating a 3 quad Trusova, and maybe even a 4 quad Trusova. Her skating quality is lower than Kihira's and perhaps Kostornaia's, but better than Trusova's.

So the question is, what kind of layout would have Trusova needed to secure a victory no matter which competition she entered? Or do you disagree with what I said here, in which case I'd like to hear why. Which other current skaters should have been considered?
 

Arbitrary

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Trusova needs 7 quads and 2 trixels. All with max possible positive GOE. On condition that everyone of her competitors land not a single jump.
Her PCS will be negative...
 

GINO

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Trusova needs 7 quads and 2 trixels. All with max possible positive GOE. On condition that everyone of her competitors land not a single jump.
Her PCS will be negative...

Perhaps the first time I agree with your irony. The author of this thread presents Trusova as a person who can do nothing but jumps. So even too lazy to respond to this provocative post, where Sasha must jump 5 or 6 quads to win.
 

YuBluByMe

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Trusova needed either 4 quads and a 3A in the SP or to hit five quads cleanly in the FS. This may change next season, but I don’t think it will. Improving on the second mark will help her, but the real game changer is not learning a 3A (unless she does it in the FS, as well). The real game changer is Kihira or Kostornaia getting a consistent quad. If they do, she’ll be in the same boat as she was in last season.

Kihira. Trusova’s 11-point margin of victory in Skate Canada is correct, but it’s actually a small one considering that her base value was 20 points higher than Kihira’s. Kihira also had a mistake on her opening 3A in the FS and skated without a 3Lz. A clean 4 quad Trusova is really not that much ahead of a clean Kihira with a 3Lz. I said this multiple times throughout the season. The numbers are closer with Kostornaia. It’s why Trusova starting going for five quads in the first place. She can do math.

Shcherbakova. She doesn’t need a 3A as much as Trusova, but it’s another game changer if she does. She’ll be better off solidifying her 4F. She’s already winning the free skate with mistakes. But if she also gets a 3A or adds another quad to her FS, Trusova will need to be clean with a Nathan Chen layout. And...well...good luck with that.

Trusova already needed a lot to win. If Kihira, Kostornaia, or Shcherbakova up their game next season, she’s still going to need a lot, even if she ups her own.

...My prediction is clean with 4 quads with a 3A in both programs.

...and 70+ PCS.
 

kolyadafan2002

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I tried to add a comment earlier, but it didn't work so I'll try again:

for me here are acceptable winning layouts:
1 3A in SP, 2 3A and 3 quad in LP (6 difficult elements between 2 programs).
1 3A in SP, 1 3A and 4 quad in LP (6 difficult elements)
13A in SP, 5 quad in LP (6 difficult elements).
no 3A in SP, 6 quad in LP ( 6 difficult elements).
no 3A in SP, 1 3A & 5 quad in LP (6 difficult elements).
no 3A in SP, 2 3A & 4 quad in LP (6 difficult elements).
^ These layouts for me would win if skated clean.

And time for layouts which could win, but might rely on other skaters making mistakes:
1 3A in SP, 3 quads and 1 3A in LP (5 difficult elements).
1 3A in SP, 4 quads in LP (5 difficult elements).
0 3A in SP, 5 quad in LP (5 difficult elements).
You get the idea.

I feel she needs 4 difficult elements between 2 programs to even be a contender, and then 5 for a good chance to win.
All of this depends on how she improves with SS etc, and how other people improve as well.
 

kolyadafan2002

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A Tredecuple Axel! :eek: I'll give you she might be crazy enough to try! ;)

I'd expect it more from her than any of the men.

What I didn't add is that there is the possibility that she might go for 7 or 8 difficult elements (1 in SP, then 6 or 7 in LP)
I guess she is a lot more like Plushenko than people realize.
 

Skatesocs

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I'd expect it more from her than any of the men.

What I didn't add is that there is the possibility that she might go for 7 or 8 difficult elements (1 in SP, then 6 or 7 in LP)
I guess she is a lot more like Plushenko than people realize.

If Trusova does all those many elements, it's another story vs these skaters.
 

yume

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Well, the scores last season showed that Trusova needed to be clean with 4 quads FS to hope to beat a clean Kostornaia.
Kostornaia SBs: 85 + 162 = 247+
Trusova's SB: 74 + 166 = 240+ (the actual is 241).
That's a 6-7 points gap that could have been erased by a clean 4th quad. But then they would have been basically tied. Even if Trusova had won it wouldn't have been by a decisive margin.
I think that a clean Kostornaia at worlds would have probably won with something like 250+ while a clean Trusova would have been close 2nd with 248+ or even 3rd as Shcherbakova could score that high too. All three it would have been extremely close, within 2 points.

So to decisively win i think Trusova needed a 3A in the short. Clean she would have won no matter what.

So if things stay the same next season, same layouts, same execution, same SS, etc. Trusova needs a SP with 3A and a FS with 4 clean quads (+3lz-3lo) to be sure to win against Kostornaya and Shcherbakova.
She doesn't need that much to win against a Kihira who has only 3As. Kihira will never get 245+. 235-240 is her max. But if she gets a quad that can change.


SHOULD she lose to all of them(+ Kim and Asada) with with a clean 4 FS?

I'm kinda divided. By the rules, yes, she should probably lose to Kostornaya, Shcherbakova and Kihira.
But ideologically, my response is no. Because i'm more sensible to difficulty than artistry. Difficulty is measurable, artistry no. She should get lower pcs and GOEs than any of them but, imo, if you can master 5 ultra elements (4 type of quads + 3lz-3lo) you should win against someone who have only one ultra element (3A: Kostornaya, Kihira, Asada), you should win by some margin against someone who hadn't any of that and who doesn't even meet the standard 7 triples (Kim). No matter the level of execution. I would be okay only with Shcherbakova beating her. IDEOLOGICALLY.

Having a 3A in SP and 3 quads in FS while improving her pcs and landings would be a better idea and would make her a better skater imo. But i read somewhere that she wants 5 quads in FS next season....
 

drivingmissdaisy

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The most important thing for Sasha is to actually complete the elements she plans successfully. A fall on a < quad, with the negative GOE, makes that element worth less than a successful triple. The quad attempts are also more exhausting, which affects not only the performance (measured through PCS) but also makes the late program triples harder to do on tired legs. So if she's able to get two or three solid quads landed and have the energy to do everything else well, she's going to be in far better position than trying five and missing four.

As far as matching up to the competition, if Anna lands everything including two 4Lz and one 4F, there isn't a lot that Sasha (or anyone else) can do to beat Anna in the LP. However, I don't think it will be a common occurrence that Anna will actually land three quads every time she skates the LP. Sasha should focus on delivering the content she can accomplish consistently, because her scores towards the end of the season could be topped by others outside the top three, such as Alina.
 

Skatesocs

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Just as a note, I thought it would be interesting to debate because while there's one other quadster on the circuit who can be directly compared, neither does a 3A despite all their other technical achievements. OTOH, Kostornaia and Kihira are better quality and have 3A, but no quads. It's somewhat a question of where the balance lies that I thought would be fun to debate.

There is also the question about SoV - IMO combos like +3Lo, 4+1Lo+3 should be getting bonuses and we should see when the jumps actually happen to judge overall difficulty - another cool point to debate to me.

Apart from that, there's the question of tech calls and ideology/philosophy. I made sure to mention one rotates quads for simplicity, but 2018-19 season, I don't believe Trusova rotated her quads (she only ever did three quad LPs IIRC). IMO given the quality of what she was showing, maybe she shouldn't beat even Kim's 2013 performances overall. It's another thing to debate here - where this balance lies for a skater - on what amount of quality vs quantity one should focus on. And what one would assign more value to, etc (example, yume thinks difficulty should take precedence, but even they talk about four rotated quads - where I can see a lot more easily where they're coming from). How to judge the skaters currently in the ladies field for their efforts also can be talked about.

I hope people won't take the thread personally. I am just treating it like game design and fun.
 

kolyadafan2002

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Just as a note, I thought it would be interesting to debate because while there's one other quadster on the circuit who can be directly compared, neither does a 3A despite all their other technical achievements. OTOH, Kostornaia and Kihira are better quality and have 3A, but no quads. It's somewhat a question of where the balance lies that I thought would be fun to debate.

There is also the question about SoV - IMO combos like +3Lo, 4+1Lo+3 should be getting bonuses and we should see when the jumps actually happen to judge overall difficulty - another cool point to debate to me.

Apart from that, there's the question of tech calls and ideology/philosophy. I made sure to mention one rotates quads for simplicity, but 2018-19 season, I don't believe Trusova rotated her quads (she only ever did three quad LPs IIRC). IMO given the quality of what she was showing, maybe she shouldn't beat even Kim's 2013 performances overall. It's another thing to debate here - where this balance lies for a skater - on what amount of quality vs quantity one should focus on. And what one would assign more value to, etc (example, yume thinks difficulty should take precedence, but even they talk about four rotated quads - where I can see a lot more easily where they're coming from). How to judge the skaters currently in the ladies field for their efforts also can be talked about.

I hope people won't take the thread personally. I am just treating it like game design and fun.

4+eu+3S requires less energy than 4+3T, as with eu you can reload and get more power into the 3S.
 

kolyadafan2002

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Thats why 4T-eu-3S worth less BV points than for example 4T-3T-2T. I mean, euler combo is counted as a three jump combo, so

I know, but the difficulty isn't the reason,
the reason is the added jump bv, nothing more or less.
Skatesocs stated that there should be bonus for +eu+3S which I disagree with, as it's not more difficult than +3T.

I agree with a bonus for +3Lo combos though.
 

Shayuki

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I don't think that a specific layout is the issue, I think that she just needs to stick to one layout and stop changing it for every single competition.

What I think should be within her abilities is a triple quad layout, with one 4Lutz and two 4Ts. She doesn't really need anything else as long as she can skate clean. In any case, however, the important thing for her is to be consistent.

If we just look at the 166.62 point free skate, that'd become a ~170 point skate with a triple instead of the quad fall, and a 171.3 point skate with full levels(which she might get with less exhaustion due to only 3 quads). Then add some extra PCS due to her being consistent and that'd be around 174 points, I'd say.

As for the SP, I doubt she'd stay at 74 points. IMO likely would be around 78 points, which even is a relatively low score for a clean program with a -3Lo combo nowadays.
 

Thrashergurl

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I think a clean skate by Trusova with her quads would win. At least last season. She made too many mistakes and her coaches weren’t doing her any favors with her programs, packaging and changing her jump layouts.
 

lzxnl

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Well, the scores last season showed that Trusova needed to be clean with 4 quads FS to hope to beat a clean Kostornaia.
Kostornaia SBs: 85 + 162 = 247+
Trusova's SB: 74 + 166 = 240+ (the actual is 241).
That's a 6-7 points gap that could have been erased by a clean 4th quad. But then they would have been basically tied. Even if Trusova had won it wouldn't have been by a decisive margin.
I think that a clean Kostornaia at worlds would have probably won with something like 250+ while a clean Trusova would have been close 2nd with 248+ or even 3rd as Shcherbakova could score that high too. All three it would have been extremely close, within 2 points.

So to decisively win i think Trusova needed a 3A in the short. Clean she would have won no matter what.

So if things stay the same next season, same layouts, same execution, same SS, etc. Trusova needs a SP with 3A and a FS with 4 clean quads (+3lz-3lo) to be sure to win against Kostornaya and Shcherbakova.
She doesn't need that much to win against a Kihira who has only 3As. Kihira will never get 245+. 235-240 is her max. But if she gets a quad that can change.


SHOULD she lose to all of them(+ Kim and Asada) with with a clean 4 FS?

I'm kinda divided. By the rules, yes, she should probably lose to Kostornaya, Shcherbakova and Kihira.
But ideologically, my response is no. Because i'm more sensible to difficulty than artistry. Difficulty is measurable, artistry no. She should get lower pcs and GOEs than any of them but, imo, if you can master 5 ultra elements (4 type of quads + 3lz-3lo) you should win against someone who have only one ultra element (3A: Kostornaya, Kihira, Asada), you should win by some margin against someone who hadn't any of that and who doesn't even meet the standard 7 triples (Kim). No matter the level of execution. I would be okay only with Shcherbakova beating her. IDEOLOGICALLY.

Having a 3A in SP and 3 quads in FS while improving her pcs and landings would be a better idea and would make her a better skater imo. But i read somewhere that she wants 5 quads in FS next season....

Just to defend Kihira, consider her Skate Canada SP but put in a lutz instead of a loop. That gets her to 82 points in the short fairly easily. Then, consider her 4CC free skate in which she basically zeros out a 3A. While she partially made up for it with a second 3T, in total it cost her about 8 points (including any PCS lost). Thus, she could realistically score near 160 points in a clean FS without a quad, giving her a total score of 242. Higher if she figures out a way to get more GOE on her jumps.
 

Skatesocs

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I know, but the difficulty isn't the reason,
the reason is the added jump bv, nothing more or less.
Skatesocs stated that there should be bonus for +eu+3S which I disagree with, as it's not more difficult than +3T.

I agree with a bonus for +3Lo combos though.

I also believe there should be a bonus for 4+3T jumps. But I don't see how Euler would make it easier. Ideally, it's just an edge change, with the +3S lifting up like Ito's used to, maintaining good rhythm. The fact that most cheat the Sal with spinning it off the ice and losing most rhythm should instead be penalised.
 

Blades of Passion

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I would like to see:

4Lutz
4Toe+3Toe
3Axel
4Toe
3Lutz+3Loop
3Lutz+half loop+3Sal
3Flip

She should probably just ignore the 4Sal forever, it's too swingy for her and the 3Axel is worth more between SP + LP. 4Flip is maybe worthwhile, but again the 3Axel should be given more importance than it, and this content is plenty. She should go for consistency.
 

Skatesocs

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I would like to see:

4Lutz
4Toe+3Toe
3Axel
4Toe
3Lutz+3Loop
3Lutz+half loop+3Sal
3Flip

She should probably just ignore the 4Sal forever, it's too swingy for her and the 3Axel is worth more between SP + LP. 4Flip is maybe worthwhile, but again the 3Axel should be given more importance than it, and this content is plenty. She should go for consistency.

So when you say this, you are saying so because they will be rotated and also because you even think her 4T and 3Lz+1Lo+3S combos should be picking up GOE? I think I agree that this layout with a 3A in the SP makes her much more competitive. But at the same time, she'd need to land and rotate everything too (ignoring the trivial statement of how she can be doing much better skating next season anyway... Or your favourite GoT program :p).

I was even very annoyed she dropped the 3Lz+3Lo in the SP. I thought she gets great snap on it, and also it went better with the music than the 3Lz+3T that really killed any rhythm and flow. I'm actually not a fan of her +3T.

Agree on 4S.

Also curious, what about Shcherbackova? I don't know if I think she could do a 3A actually...
 
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