Who do you send as the second U.S. ladies’ skater to Worlds?

[drivingmissdaisy]

And yes Amber finished 2nd over Karen. But it was less then two points! It was hardly a convincing beating. She also has by far (without question!) the weakest body of work of all the top 5 finishers. She's actually really lucky the USFSA made her the 1st alternate. They could have easily given her the Ross treatment and made Mariah the 1st alternate instead despite her 5th place.

Last two seasons:
Amber - Nats: 2nd and 5th, GPs: 5th, 6th and 7th, Challenger: 3rd
Karen - Nats: 3rd and 4th, GPs: 4th, 8th, and 9th, Challengers: 2nd and 4th

You think Amber's body of work is by far and without question weaker than Karen's? Their average Nationals and Challenger placements are identical, while Amber's average GP placement is 6th and Karen's is 7th. I really hope this had nothing to do with Amber coming out as bisexual and the USFSA frowning upon that.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

That combined with being a former national champion and once top 4 at worlds is what made her the obvious choice.

She got 4th at Worlds with a score of 199. When she improved upon that with a 201 at Four Continents last year, it was only good enough for 7th. I'm not sure why results from four years ago matter when Ashley was two years removed from a world silver medal and didn't get favorable treatment to get picked for the Olympic team.

 

[Amei]

Based on Nationals placement, Amber should have the spot. Based on body of work, Mariah should have the spot. The USFSA picked a skater who wasn't the most deserving on either.

I know the published criteria supposedly only included Nationals and 4ccs from last year, in addition to the competitions this year but I can't help but wonder if Mariah's history of under-performing at the last 3 Worlds affected the "body of work" argument to go against her.

 

[alexocfp]

If you insist on using that dreaded “body of work” the National Championships should count for more in that equation.

And obviously there should be automatic berths. The champion should have a worlds spot, and the champion in an Olympic year should get an olympic spot.

If an American wins the 4CC, then they should get a spot in the next one.

 

[Mathman]

I know the published criteria supposedly only included Nationals and 4ccs from last year, in addition to the competitions this year but I can't help but wonder if Mariah's history of under-performing at the last 3 Worlds affected the "body of work" argument to go against her.

I don't think so. Placement at Nationals is the number one criterion. I think that the Federation is willing to bend a little and push the 3rd-place finisher ahead of the second-place finisher, especially when it is close. It was not possible for them to do anything for Mariah way down in fifth.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Last two seasons:
Amber - Nats: 2nd and 5th, GPs: 5th, 6th and 7th, Challenger: 3rd
Karen - Nats: 3rd and 4th, GPs: 4th, 8th, and 9th, Challengers: 2nd and 4th

Why are you leaving out Four Continents? Karen not only placed higher there, but also would have received a better score under the ruleset for this season and next season, because she received multiple < calls that would very likely only be 'q' now.

Karen has outskated Amber EVERY season, and she outskated her at this Nationals too. The fraudulent hype for Amber's 3Axel (plus a non-skating related factor, LOL at suggesting coming out hurt her, when it's been something that benefitted her) skewed the scores incorrectly. She is not going to get anywhere close to those PCS Internationally, Karen will be ahead of her by several points there, whereas at Nationals there was barely any separation.

And as for Mariah, she has been outskated by Karen every season up through 2018 and now again this season, with Karen's stronger overall Nationals + Skate America. Mariah has actually NEVER had the better season, any time Karen has been sufficiently trained.

 

[Amei]

Why are you leaving out Four Continents? Karen not only placed higher there, but also would have received a better score under the ruleset for this season and next season, because she received multiple < calls that would very likely only be 'q' now.

I think drivingmissdaisy accidentally labeled 4ccs as a GP event.

 

[Blades of Passion]

I think drivingmissdaisy accidentally labeled 4ccs as a GP event.

Amber was 9th at 4CC, which does not show up on their list.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Why are you leaving out Four Continents? Karen not only placed higher there, but also would have received a better score under the ruleset for this season and next season, because she received multiple < calls that would very likely only be 'q' now.

Karen has outskated Amber EVERY season, and she outskated her at this Nationals too. The fraudulent hype for Amber's 3Axel (plus a non-skating related factor, LOL at suggesting coming out hurt her, when it's been something that benefitted her) skewed the scores incorrectly. She is not going to get anywhere close to those PCS Internationally, Karen will be ahead of her by several points there, whereas at Nationals there was barely any separation.

And as for Mariah, she has been outskated by Karen every season up through 2018 and now again this season, with Karen's stronger overall Nationals + Skate America. Mariah has actually NEVER had the better season, any time Karen has been sufficiently trained.

You're right, I did forget to include their 4CC, where Karen was 7th and Amber 9th. So their head-to-heads the last two seasons were:

2019 Skate America: Amber
2020 Nats: Karen
2020 4CC: Karen
2020 Skate America: Karen
2021 Nats: Amber

I'm not sure how you think Amber's coming out benefitted her in any way whatsoever. She was left off a world team despite a relatively close competitive record with the finisher behind her. No one has displaced a higher Nationals finisher on a world team with a body of work like Karen's the last two years. Ever.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Amber does not have a "relatively close competitive" record. That is a very flawed twisting of history. Again, Karen has outskated her EVERY season.

Amber's coming out benefitted her because it generated favorable publicity, creating a storyline the federation can build upon with her if she's able to skate very well. But she didn't. The 3Axel attempt was completely blown, which is what she needed to be considered someone especially exciting, and in the LP it was a rather tentative skate with clearly lesser polish than what Bradie and Karen did. She's made good strides to improve but there is much work to be done still, she's not there yet.

 

[Tahuu]

Karen is the right selection. She had >10 pts advantage over Amber internationally.

 

[Mathman]

For better orworse, the USFSA over the past decade or so has slowly but surely moved away from the "Nationals is everything" position and more and more in the directions of, "give the Selection Committee more leeway to do what they think is best."

Here is the quote from the official 2020-2021 version of the selection process:

It has been the experience of U.S. Figure Skating that the athletes who have had success at the international level are those who have demonstrated consistent performances as opposed to the athletes who have only a single great performance. Therefore, by not having the selection process based solely on one event, U.S. Figure Skating can select the best athletes to represent the United States at the ISU World Figure Skating Championships.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

That doesn't sound like a process. It sounds like "we'll just pick whoever we want and just say her 4th-9th place international finishes demonstrate consistency."

 

[macy]

i think no matter who they picked for the 2nd spot, they can't win. people are going to be upset if Mariah was picked with an inconsistent season and a 5th place finish, Amber who has been inconsistent for years who finally put together a medal worthy performance, or Karen who has also been inconsistent for years and finished behind Amber. there would have been reasoning to not send anyone for the 2nd spot. there was no clear choice and there would have still been people upset no matter who got it.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

i think no matter who they picked for the 2nd spot, they can't win. people are going to be upset if Mariah was picked with an inconsistent season and a 5th place finish, Amber who has been inconsistent for years who finally put together a medal worthy performance, or Karen who has also been inconsistent for years and finished behind Amber. there would have been reasoning to not send anyone for the 2nd spot. there was no clear choice and there would have still been people upset no matter who got it.

Personally, what I'd like to see are clearer rules around the selection process going forward since the team is now already picked. It's unfair to the skaters to be in the dark about what they need to do to get a spot, and I think the USFSA owes it to the athletes to explain their thought process here. It's become a situation in which there are usually one or two more skaters than number of spots available who feel like they are entitled to an assignment based on their interpretation of the rules, and it's a huge problem because these kids sacrifice so much for those big event opportunities.

 

[kirauza343]

Can we please leave Amber’s sexuality out of this and can we definitely not make claims that coming out has benefited her when figure skating is still a very conservative sport

I’ve said this elsewhere but I can see exactly why Karen was picked: Amber may have placed 2nd at Nationals but Karen was within a point of her making it nearly a tie, and at the only other live competition they’ve had (Skate America) Karen beat Amber by 15 points. It’s that simple.

I would’ve loved to see Amber go especially with her tech but Karen is a logical choice.

 

[Blades of Passion]

It's unfair to the skaters to be in the dark about what they need to do to get a spot.

Skaters aren't in the dark. They know there is no guarantee of anything unless they consistently show results, or show a level of skating that blows the field away. Karen has consistently beaten Amber, by wide margins, aside from finishing half a point behind her at Nationals (which was bad judging anyway).

 

[margiemo]

I don’t think world’s should happen.Not all countries are able to skate regularly and compete in person due to covid.Is it fair to have world’s with vaccinations only starting.The ISU is doing a poor job during the pandemic.I feel bad for the skaters example having competitions with audiences some Russian skaters getting covid.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Skaters aren't in the dark. They know there is no guarantee of anything unless they consistently show results, or show a level of skating that blows the field away. Karen has consistently beaten Amber, by wide margins, aside from finishing half a point behind her at Nationals (which was bad judging anyway).

Their head-to-head record is 3-2 over the last two seasons in favor of Karen. You may think Karen is better, and I'd probably agree that she is the better overall skater, but I don't think having one more win over another skater over the time frame we're supposed to look at is what I'd call "consistently" beating. That some people are trying to justify the pick by pointing out that Karen placed second in the free skate at Skate America indicates that her competitive record isn't really that strong.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Their head-to-head record is 3-2 over the last two seasons in favor of Karen.

At the events that matter, and with correct judging, Karen has never lost to Amber. It's not just about the superficial record either, but the actual point gaps. Karen is far ahead. Add up the points for yourself.