Who Will Throw the Cat Amongst the Pigeons?

[Seven Sisters]

What’s your best guess for the biggest upset/most unexpected result at Nationals? What result would you consider most likely to upset USFS’—and our—expectations as to who will make the Olympic team? Discuss!!!

I would say that off-the-podium finishes for Alysa Liu and/or Knierim/Frazier would not be inconceivable, and would certainly qualify. And while ice dance is perhaps the most predictable of disciplines, I would still watch out for Green & Parsons, whose FD is easily the class of the field.

 

[Lamente Ariane]

Pairs seems ripe for an upset to me-- I think Knierim/Frazier aren't as far ahead of the field as they were assumed to be early on, and they haven't necessarily built up an unassailable body of work to keep them on the team if they seriously underperform.

 

[yuumagical]

I wonder if Ilia Malinin (or possibly Yaroslav Paniot? Haven't seen him since that freak accident) could pull off an upset in the men's competition...

Honestly, I'm just posting this because I really love the title of this thread.

 

[figureskatingandrainbows]

I think Audrey/Misha will win pairs thanks to their solid SBS elements, and then USFS will have a serious conundrum over whether to send them to the Olys or not.

 

[Seven Sisters]

I wonder if Ilia Malinin (or possibly Yaroslav Paniot? Haven't seen him since that freak accident) could pull off an upset in the men's competition...

Honestly, I'm just posting this because I really love the title of this thread.

Why, thank you! I love the British Eurosport uncles.

 

[mrrice]

Well, after reading the reports from Jackie Wong, I'm going to say Gracie Gold. I guess she's looking great in the practices and win or lose, I'd be thrilled to see her skate well here. I don't think anyone can upset Alysa, and the way that Mariah and Lindsay have been looking, I'd be hard pressed to see Karen or Gracie beat them but, you never know. Isabeau is not eligible for the Olympic Team but, I could see her on the podium if she skates well.

 

[Seven Sisters]

Well, after reading the reports from Jackie Wong, I'm going to say Gracie Gold. I guess she's looking great in the practices and win or lose, I'd be thrilled to see her skate well here. I don't think anyone can upset Alysa, and the way that Mariah and Lindsay have been looking, I'd be hard pressed to see Karen or Gracie beat them but, you never know. Isabeau is not eligible for the Olympic Team but, I could see her on the podium if she skates well.

Not so much a question of somebody beating Alysa as much as a fear that Alysa may beat herself, with all that has been going with her. And I would never count Karen out, she does tend to rise to the occasion when most needed!

And, you go Gracie! Show em what you’ve got!

 

[mrrice]

Not so much a question of somebody beating Alysa as much as a fear that Alysa may beat herself, with all that has been going with her. And I would never count Karen out, she does tend to rise to the occasion when most needed!

And, you go Gracie! Show em what you’ve got!

You know, I love Karen's skating, especially her spins. Her 4th place at Worlds last year had me on the Karen train. However, she has not had a great season and unlike last year, I don't think the committee will step in for her this year. Another question mark for me is Amber Glenn. After her Silver from last season, I can't see them leaving her off the team for the second year in a row should she medal again this year.

 

[moonvine]

Gracie E Gold. Pewter medal. Moonvine has spent the morning cleaning up partially digested bird pieces and is ready to be cheered up.

 

[mrrice]

Gracie E Gold. Pewter medal.

I sure hope you're right. That could mean a trip to 4CC and possibly worlds if any of the Olympians decide to skip worlds this year.

 

[Seven Sisters]

I sure hope you're right. That could mean a trip to 4CC and possibly worlds if any of the Olympians decide to skip worlds this year.

AFAIK Gracie does not have the required minimums for either comp. That would indeed throw the cat amongst the pigeons in your scenario, because USFS would have to find somewhere to send her to gain those minimums posthaste—not easy to do when time is short and you are in the midst of a worldwide pandemic!

 

[mrrice]

AFAIK Gracie does not have the required minimums for either comp. That would indeed throw the cat amongst the pigeons in your scenario, because USFS would have to find somewhere to send her to gain those minimums posthaste—not easy to do when time is short and you are in the midst of a worldwide pandemic!

I'm still confused about minimum scores. Can Gracie earn them at Nationals. If she gets the pewter medal, shouldn't that qualify her for 4cc

 

[StitchMonkey]

I'm still confused about minimum scores. Can Gracie earn them at Nationals. If she gets the pewter medal, shouldn't that qualify her for 4cc

No, the TES needs to be earned at an international competition. So domestic does not count. Similarly even if Ilia wins, he still needs the minimum TES for worlds

There is an event (Usually the Bavarian Open) that is the same weekend as 4CC that she could go to and get the minimum TES. But i don't think it is in time for the Olympics. However worlds she could qualify for.

If she does well I hope they do send her to something, even if to just try to get a season best... then again, not sure Bavarian counts for that.

 

[LoisAGOEs]

No, the TES needs to be earned at an international competition. So domestic does not count. Similarly even if Ilia wins, he still needs the minimum TES for worlds

There is an event (Usually the Bavarian Open) that is the same weekend as 4CC that she could go to and get the minimum TES. But i don't think it is in time for the Olympics. However worlds she could qualify for.

If she does well I hope they do send her to something, even if to just try to get a season best... then again, not sure Bavarian counts for that.

Season best scores can only be earned at Challengers/Grand Prix/Championships.

 

[skylark]

Pairs seems ripe for an upset to me-- I think Knierim/Frazier aren't as far ahead of the field as they were assumed to be early on, and they haven't necessarily built up an unassailable body of work to keep them on the team if they seriously underperform.

K/F are the only pair in "Group 2," which relates to their scores and completed competitions. I have seen it posted elsewhere that even if they were to be as low as 5th place at Nationals (not likely), they could still be sent to the Olympics. Maybe someone who keeps up with these things can confirm and reference that. Meagan Duhamel also said it, on her recent appearance on TSL.

But I agree with you that they're not as far ahead of the field as was assumed. They may not be a lock for gold. It will be an exciting contest ... or extremely nerve-wracking, depending on your point of view!

 

[skylark]

I think Audrey/Misha will win pairs thanks to their solid SBS elements, and then USFS will have a serious conundrum over whether to send them to the Olys or not.

Some have been talking about this in the US Pairs thread. You're invited to join in! Two things: they haven't (yet) been scored as highly by international judges as a couple of other pairs have been, but they've been consistent this season, as have Ashley and Timothy. But is there a rule that if they win Nationals, they're sent to the Olympics? Not sure, maybe someone can help with this.

 

[skylark]

I wonder if Ilia Malinin (or possibly Yaroslav Paniot? Haven't seen him since that freak accident) could pull off an upset in the men's competition...

Honestly, I'm just posting this because I really love the title of this thread.

Me too! I miss listening to the Eurosport uncles; I try to find their commentary on youtube. Being from Oklahoma, I love it when I hear them say what I always thought were southernisms, such as for example "by a country mile." Many expressions came directly from England to the southern at-that-time colonies.

@Seven Sisters
What’s your best guess for the biggest upset/most unexpected result at Nationals?

I think the biggest upset would be Yaroslav or Ilia on the podium, but I rather doubt that would change the Nathan/Vincent/Jason lineup for the Olympics. But Yaroslav did beat Jason in the FS at 2021 nationals and came within half a point of Vincent, and I think Ilia could possibly, as well.

 

[readernick]

Season best scores can only be earned at Challengers/Grand Prix/Championships.

Yes, but you can get TES minimums at Senior B events. It just won't count for SB.

 

[moonvine]

AFAIK Gracie does not have the required minimums for either comp. That would indeed throw the cat amongst the pigeons in your scenario, because USFS would have to find somewhere to send her to gain those minimums posthaste—not easy to do when time is short and you are in the midst of a worldwide pandemic!

She has the LP score. She just needs the SP. That stupid short at Cranberry

 

[moonvine]

Some have been talking about this in the US Pairs thread. You're invited to join in! Two things: they haven't (yet) been scored as highly by international judges as a couple of other pairs have been, but they've been consistent this season, as have Ashley and Timothy. But is there a rule that if they win Nationals, they're sent to the Olympics? Not sure, maybe someone can help with this.

I don’t think there is an iron clad rule, as opposed to another judged sport, gymnastics, where it is actually a rule written into the selection process. . But I can’t remember a time when it didn’t work out that way. This is a job for @ice coverage. The only reason I could think of is if a skater who was not age eligible won, as when Alysa won but was not put on the World team due to age.