Jason Brown

[Mrs. P]

It's great that Jason placed fourth .

But you are doing Jason no favors by claiming that Hersh's point about the large scoring gap is not a valid one.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/subur...wn-figure-skating-st-0331-20150331-story.html​

Whether Hersh had written about the gap or not, I'm sure that Kori and USFS have thought long and hard about it.
Everyone keeps talking about Kori taking the long view. Her long-term vision includes a world (and/or Olympic) medal for Jason, does it not?
Although Jason's placement came very close this year, his score did not. So Kori should be -- and I firmly believe that she is -- calculating (in a good way ) how to add points to his programs. And being realistic as to how large the gap is obviously is important for her planning.

And I'm sure she's also taking into account that he would have been a lot closer had it not been for that darn 3A<< error. That was 10 points right there.

I'm sure Jason and her are having a nice discussion along the lines of "Why did you miss that when you've done 40 clean programs in practice with that 3A just fine?"

Of course that gap could have be wider had the top 3 been absolutely perfect.

 

[ice coverage]

And I'm sure she's also taking into account that he would have been a lot closer had it not been for that darn 3A<< error. That was 10 points right there.

I'm sure Jason and her are having a nice discussion along the lines of "Why did you miss that when you've done 40 clean programs in practice with that 3A just fine?"

Of course that gap could have be wider had the top 3 been absolutely perfect.

:agree:

Also ... being realistic on Hersh's part serves Jason's long-term interest regarding fan expectations.

Hypothetically: say that Jason places fourth at Worlds next year, but only six points behind the bronze medalist.
Although the placement might seem like a repeat of this year, the score would be a sign of good progress .

 

[StitchMonkey]

I feel, in general, that Phil is far too pessimistic in his view of U.S. men.

And perhaps too optimistic about the rest of the men in skating. . .

 

[Mrs. P]

And perhaps too optimistic about the rest of the men in skating. . .

FWIW, I agree to some extent, but for now, there's nothing to discredit Phil's viewpoint. A US man has not made the GPF since 2011 (though yes, Jason came close in the last two years). A US man has medaled in just half of its GP events. And of course, the US men's medal drought has been extended another year (though again Jason was just on the outside looking in in 4th).

Jason is where he needs to be, though not at the timetable that many want him to be. Might as well cheer for continued progress and not worry too much about the criticisms.

 

[Mrs. P]

USFS reposted this clip from 2014 as in honor of MLB's opening day.

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/47149716/v32707915/stlchc-olympian-brown-throws-out-the-first-pitch

 

[ice coverage]

Jason got to throw the first pitch at Wrigley Field as part of the opening day for the Chicago Cubs:

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/47149716/v32707915/stlchc-olympian-brown-throws-out-the-first-pitch

But the Jason vid is from his first pitch at a game last season (May 2014)?

Not Opening Day.

But not diminishing the honor/thrill of a first pitch at any MLB game.
I remember last year when Jason got some "training" to prep for the first pitch ... as many of the chosen few do.

 

[Mrs. P]

But the Jason vid is from his first pitch at a game last season (May 2014)?

Not Opening Day.

But not diminishing the honor/thrill of a first pitch at any MLB game.
I remember last year when Jason got some "training" to prep for the first pitch ... as many of the chosen few do.

Doh! you're right.

Didn't look at the date very carefully--- USFS just posted the video under the guise of "Opening Day" activities.

Was wondering why the heck Jason was back in Chicago with WTT coming up, lol.

 

[Tavi...]

Okay, I have to laugh. Did y'all notice that in the WTT Predictions thread, most people are now picking Jason tp place 3 or 4, and some as high as 2? After Nats there were similar predictions from many for 4CCs. After 4CCs, everyone picked Josh to place high at Worlds and Jason disappeared from view. Now in this post-Worlds world, Jason is back in favor but I don't think Max has made anyone's top 6.

Which probably means Max will win and Jason will drop to 20th or something.

I sincerely hope that's not the case for Jason, and that for once predictions for Jason coincide with reality! Seriously, I hope both Jason and Max skate beautifully and have the time of their lives.

 

[Mrs. P]

Well FWIW, here's the SB list for the men at WTT

2. Yuzuru Hanyu 288.16
6. Han Yan 259.47
9. Takahito Mura 256.47
10. Sergei Voronov 252.00
11. Jason Brown 248.29
12. Maxim Kovtun 243.35
----
13. Nam Nguyen 242.59
15. Max Aaron 240.22
24. Florent Amodio 229.71
36. Jeremy Ten 212.64

No ISU SB:
Nan Song: 209.41 (at Winter Universiade)
Romain Ponsart: 182.73 (at Winter Universiade)

Jason would be 8th at worst, me thinks and only if he totally bombs.

 

[StitchMonkey]

Okay, I have to laugh. Did y'all notice that in the WTT Predictions thread, most people are now picking Jason tp place 3 or 4, and some as high as 2? After Nats there were similar predictions from many for 4CCs. After 4CCs, everyone picked Josh to place high at Worlds and Jason disappeared from view. Now in this post-Worlds world, Jason is back in favor but I don't think Max has made anyone's top 6.

Which probably means Max will win and Jason will drop to 20th or something.

I sincerely hope that's not the case for Jason, and that for once predictions for Jason coincide with reality! Seriously, I hope both Jason and Max skate beautifully and have the time of their lives.

I did notice how few people had Jason even in the top six for worlds. People are weird and think that the most recent comp a skater has had is their likely performance from then to retirement. I think some were bitter about him messing up the 4CC predictions. He likely could have medaled if he had not tried the quad, though long term his plan likely was the better one. Maybe some thought Jason was trying the quad at worlds and based their predictions on that. Who knows.

I think he will do well, it is a good competition format for him.

 

[andromache]

Okay, I have to laugh. Did y'all notice that in the WTT Predictions thread, most people are now picking Jason tp place 3 or 4, and some as high as 2? After Nats there were similar predictions from many for 4CCs. After 4CCs, everyone picked Josh to place high at Worlds and Jason disappeared from view. Now in this post-Worlds world, Jason is back in favor but I don't think Max has made anyone's top 6.

Which probably means Max will win and Jason will drop to 20th or something.

I sincerely hope that's not the case for Jason, and that for once predictions for Jason coincide with reality! Seriously, I hope both Jason and Max skate beautifully and have the time of their lives.

I also think it has to do with the number of skaters Jason competes against. I love Jason so I don't want this to sound like a criticism, but his scoring potential is lower than some of the quad men. The more quad men he skates against, the higher the likelihood that he'll place lower. Of course, that logic doesn't consider the quad men bombing, which threw off a ton of predictions. In a smaller field like 4CC or WTT, Jason has a higher chance of success. Skating and results doesn't ACTUALLY work like this since anyone can skate gorgeously or totally bomb on any given day, but people try to make their predictions as "rationally" as they can even though the whole thing is a crapshoot anyway .

Anyway, go Jason! I can't wait to see him skate and be supportive in the KnC. He'll be a ton of fun to watch both on and off the ice.

 

[katmari]

Okay, I have to laugh. Did y'all notice that in the WTT Predictions thread, most people are now picking Jason tp place 3 or 4, and some as high as 2? After Nats there were similar predictions from many for 4CCs. After 4CCs, everyone picked Josh to place high at Worlds and Jason disappeared from view. Now in this post-Worlds world, Jason is back in favor but I don't think Max has made anyone's top 6.

Which probably means Max will win and Jason will drop to 20th or something.

I sincerely hope that's not the case for Jason, and that for once predictions for Jason coincide with reality! Seriously, I hope both Jason and Max skate beautifully and have the time of their lives.

I noticed as well, papagena.

I don't want to jinx him but Jason has never finished lower than 9th (2011 Nationals, 2012 Nationals, 2014 Olympics) in any competition from 2006-2015 (according to his results on icenetwork). I don't expect him to finish lower than 5th at WTT. We all know he doesn't have the highest technical content, but he's mentally tough and for the most part (pesky 2nd triple axel aside) maximizes the points on each element he does. More importantly, he doesn't implode or give up after making a mistake.

Go Jason!

 

[Mrs. P]

I also think it has to do with the number of skaters Jason competes against. I love Jason so I don't want this to sound like a criticism, but his scoring potential is lower than some of the quad men. The more quad men he skates against, the higher the likelihood that he'll place lower. Of course, that logic doesn't consider the quad men bombing, which threw off a ton of predictions. In a smaller field like 4CC or WTT, Jason has a higher chance of success. Skating and results doesn't ACTUALLY work like this since anyone can skate gorgeously or totally bomb on any given day, but people try to make their predictions as "rationally" as they can even though the whole thing is a crapshoot anyway .

Anyway, go Jason! I can't wait to see him skate and be supportive in the KnC. He'll be a ton of fun to watch both on and off the ice.

Haha, exactly ---which is why my college basketball bracket was in shambles, along with 90 percent of America since most of them had Kentucky winning it all -- and they are WAY more consistent than most of the men in figure skating.

All that said, it is probably worth seeing how much scoring potential Jason has by maxing out +GOEs vs. increasing BV. I think the reason most of the men opt to do the quad, even somewhat poorly, because there's an assumption there's more to gain that way rather than trying to improve the execution of other elements.

I noticed as well, papagena.

I don't want to jinx him but Jason has never finished lower than 9th (2011 Nationals, 2012 Nationals, 2014 Olympics) in any competition from 2006-2015 (according to his results on icenetwork). I don't expect him to finish lower than 5th at WTT. We all know he doesn't have the highest technical content, but he's mentally tough and for the most part (pesky 2nd triple axel aside) maximizes the points on each element he does. More importantly, he doesn't implode or give up after making a mistake.

Go Jason!

And aside from the 2014 Olympics, he's never finished lower than 5th since debuting as a senior internationally, so yeah, I agree with your projection that he should finish in the top 5 with his usual caliber of performances.

That 2012 Nationals FS is probably the most falls from Jason I've ever seen. Three falls in one program. That about equal to the number of falls he's had in an ENTIRE season (and I think he's only had 2, both at Skate America?).

 

[Tavi...]

Haha, exactly ---which is why my college basketball bracket was in shambles, along with 90 percent of America since most of them had Kentucky winning it all -- and they are WAY more consistent than most of the men in figure skating.

All that said, it is probably worth seeing how much scoring potential Jason has by maxing out +GOEs vs. increasing BV. I think the reason most of the men opt to do the quad, even somewhat poorly, because there's an assumption there's more to gain that way rather than trying to improve the execution of other elements.

Yes, I would really love to see Jason get more +GOE in both programs. He has plenty of room still to improve the 3A as well as the GOE he gets for it - would love to see him do one so well that they have to award him +2 in GOE. And for some reason he's messed up different combos at different times, missed spin levels etc. so plenty of places to improve his scores even without adding the quad.

I'm really curious to know how Kori is pacing Jason post worlds for this comp. obviously it's not nearly as important as worlds and I'm sure he knew he would be going quite a while back, but it's really a quick turnaround. How do you recover physically while still keeping in close to peak form? The thing is, as a comp it's more fun than important ( right?) but because he made such a splash at worlds it seems like he needs to keep himself at that level.

It will be interesting to see what happens. A part of me imagines that real exhaustion could set in post worlds but I guess you just have to push it off a few weeks. Well, he won't be the only skater who has to solve this problem.

 

[ice coverage]

Doh! you're right.

Didn't look at the date very carefully--- USFS just posted the video under the guise of "Opening Day" activities.

Was wondering why the heck Jason was back in Chicago with WTT coming up, lol.

No worries, Mrs. P. I see now that USFS tweets today were unclear -- it tweeted also some old pics of Ashley W throwing a first pitch.

https://twitter.com/USFigureSkating/status/585151046554488832​

While USFS is at it, I'd love a throwback tweet re Felicia's first pitch as Nate was lifting her.

... Which probably means Max will win and Jason will drop to 20th or something.

I sincerely hope that's not the case for Jason, and that for once predictions for Jason coincide with reality! Seriously, I hope both Jason and Max skate beautifully and have the time of their lives.

Good thing only twelve men at WTT .

Looking forward to more bro photos of Jason and Max together. Like this one:

https://twitter.com/jasonbskates/status/390662469200662529​

 

[matscol]

...The thing is, as a comp it's more fun than important ( right?)...

From the ISU website:
The teams will compete for a total prize money of 1,000,000 US$, made available by the organizing ISU Member, Japan Skating Federation (and secured through ISU agreements).

So fun, yes, but the purse makes it serious.

 

[Mrs. P]

Yes, I would really love to see Jason get more +GOE in both programs. He has plenty of room still to improve the 3A as well as the GOE he gets for it - would love to see him do one so well that they have to award him +2 in GOE. And for some reason he's messed up different combos at different times, missed spin levels etc. so plenty of places to improve his scores even without adding the quad.

I got curious, so I looked at some +GOE numbers.

SP-
Best +GOE internationally - Worlds (6.58)
Best TES - Worlds (44.18)

Total of +GOE season wide internationally - 8.44 -- i.e. combing season best +GOE for each element.
Possible TES score with highest BV achieved - 46.54

Nationals +GOE- 10.80
Nationals TES - 48.90

FS
Best +GOE - 4CC (10.58)
Best TES - 4CC (84.23)

Total of +GOE season best elements - 14.9
Possible TES score with highest BV achieved this season - 91.13

Nationals +GOE -14.89
Nationals TES - 89.20

I had come into this thinking there wasn't a lot of points he left on the table, but between even his best scoring efforts this season, he could have realistically scored another 9.26 points. If you take his season's best 248.29 , that equals a total score of 257.55.

So inching closer, but I think he probably needs to have one quad to have a more definite chance at medals if everyone brings their A game. Still, yes, he has the potential to score even higher even sans quad.

Of course all these numbers are speculative at best and of course your'e at the mercy of a tech panel and set of judges.

Still some good higher targets to aim for WTT (assuming PB ISU PCS scores):
87.35 (SP; current PB is 86.00)
176.97 (FS; current PB is 167.35).
264.32 (Total; curent PB is 248.29)

Go for the stars, Jason!

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Thx Mrs P!

Any chance hell try a quad at WTT?

 

[andromache]

I got curious, so I looked at some +GOE numbers.

SP-
Best +GOE internationally - Worlds (6.58)
Best TES - Worlds (44.18)

Total of +GOE season wide internationally - 8.44 -- i.e. combing season best +GOE for each element.
Possible TES score with highest BV achieved - 46.54

Nationals +GOE- 10.80
Nationals TES - 48.90

FS
Best +GOE - 4CC (10.58)
Best TES - 4CC (84.23)

Total of +GOE season best elements - 14.9
Possible TES score with highest BV achieved this season - 91.13

Nationals +GOE -14.89
Nationals TES - 89.20

I had come into this thinking there wasn't a lot of points he left on the table, but between even his best scoring efforts this season, he could have realistically scored another 9.26 points. If you take his season's best 248.29 , that equals a total score of 257.55.

So inching closer, but I think he probably needs to have one quad to have a more definite chance at medals if everyone brings their A game. Still, yes, he has the potential to score even higher even sans quad.

Of course all these numbers are speculative at best and of course your'e at the mercy of a tech panel and set of judges.

Still some good higher targets to aim for WTT (assuming PB ISU PCS scores):
87.35 (SP; current PB is 86.00)
176.97 (FS; current PB is 167.35).
264.32 (Total; curent PB is 257.55)

Go for the stars, Jason!

Thanks for all the number crunching! Are the "higher target" numbers based on a +3 GOE on each element? Just wondering!

 

[Mrs. P]

Thanks for all the number crunching! Are the "higher target" numbers based on a +3 GOE on each element? Just wondering!

No, which is the beauty of all this. These are simply based on the combined +GOE had he scored his season's best GOE on each individual element.

So for the SP for example.
3A - 1.14 (Worlds)
3F-3T 1.2 (Skate America)
CSSp 1.07 (4CC)
StSq 1.7 (4CC)
3Z(x) 1.4 (Nebelhorn)
FCsp 1.00 (4CC)
CCoSp .93 (4CC)
Total = 8.44

The max +GOE for each element with +3s across the board based on scale of values is
3A -3.00
3F-3T- 2.1
CSsp - 1.5
StSq - 2.1
3Z- 2.1
FCSp - 1.5
CCoSp - 1.5
Total = 13.8

So an all level 4, perfect executed SP under his current layout (and PB PCS) would be 92.71.