Russia World Team

[chasingneverland]

I would like to see the Russian men do well enough where they can get a 3rd spot for the Olympics.

My goodness! 11th s so deserving of a world spot over someone who won Europeans and nationals last year. I guess it's the Russian federation working their magic again.

Even Yagudin is dubious about this move and said Aliev would be able to score higher than Semenenko. But what does Yags know? Hes only one of the all time greats. Yes hes a pain in the you know but he was a great great skater and knows the sport inside out.

I think most of us thought Mark K would get the nod over Dimitri if it went to they went with one of the younger guys. I guess the fed didn't see Mark skate at the team competition.

Whatever happened to Russian nationals being the end all deciding world spots and I'm not talking about junior's? Junior nationals is for junior worlds.

Russia should be favored to win the team gold in the Olympics next season. But the men could cost them the team gold again.
The good news is the Russian team will have ladies and pairs to dominate and I guess keep their fingers crossed about dance and men.

Will both lady alternates Alyona and Nugu go to Stockholm as well? I think they both have to be there in case of injury or sickness and the Corona virus world we live in my have to be ready to go they have to train like they are actually one of the 3 at worlds. Especially Alyona because she's 1st off as an alternate.

Well Aliona is also the reigning Euros champion. (And GPF champion and placed second at RusNats last year.) And they chose to send Liza T over her. (It's deserved but the same principle applies.)

Well none of the men are consistent. Dimitri is still recovering from first a back injury and then COVID (and he didn't go to RusNats at all). As for Mark, well he placed well at Channel 1 Trophy and the RusNats but struggled at the CupFinal. Dimitri also struggled at the Russian Cup final. (Both Mark and he placed 8th and 9th in the SP which is arguably the most important for World's because you have to get the FS.) And Evgeni won the RusCup Final. (And won jr RusNats.) Also keep in mind, it's not like any of the men (including Mikhail are consistent - it's super risky no matter who you take so you go with the person who won the event you said would determine the spots.

For both Liza T and Evgeni (as well as M/G) they went with RusCup Final results, where Evgeni and M/G won and Liza T did the best of all the skaters who weren't juniors so not eligible to go. And this WAS KNOWN AHEAD OF TIME.

Because of COVID being a weird year and because there were no international competitions AND because THE ENTIRE RUSSIAN NATIONAL TEAM (or at least the ones in legitimate contention for spots) got COVID/pneumonia/injured/or something else, they said before RusNats that they would be looking at other competitions (meaning the entire season) when naming the team for Worlds and that RusNats was no longer the sole indicator - because pretty much everyone withdrew from something or if they didn't withdraw they struggled somewhere - especially because a not insignificant amount across all four disciples weren't at RusNats or if they were weren't back to form yet.

RusNats would determine the first spots - all the champions were named to the team then - Mikhail, Anna, T/M, S/B. And technically Sasha and B/K and Z/G based on RusNats/body of work. (They weren't officially named but didn't have to go to the Cup Final as they were told they had spots already.)

Therefore, RusCup Final was to name the last spots in all four disciplines.

They were consistent and named the winners of the RusCupFinal which everyone knew - you won and you got to go - unless something crazy happened or it was waay to close to call. It wasn't and Aliona and Dimitri struggled to get back to form which was all they really were waiting for. You're arguing that the RusFed is working their magic and what happened to RusNats being the deciding factor?? It's because the RusFed were "working their magic" that Dimitri and Aliona had a shot at all. (They both missed RusNats but the Fed wanted them to have a chance to make the team.)

So, for men the spot came down to Dimitri vs everyone else pretty much haha. Evgeni won, so he was going.
For ladies, the spot came down to Aliona vs Liza T (and kinda others?? but really just them). Liza T won (of the eligible seniors), so she was going.
For pairs, the spot came down to M/G vs P/K. M/G won, so they were going.
For ice dance, the spot was S/K but they missed nationals. RusFed was definitely not going to name the bronze team haha. Anyway, S/K won here, so they were going. (Once again they really really really wanted their Euro champions to make it..but you actually had to win at Cup Final and show you were on an upward trend.)

Things make a lot of sense when you look at all the disciplines and remember EVERYONE was seriously ill or seriously hurt this season and RusFed wanted to give their RusNational team time to recover so refused to name the team at RusNats. (Of course, it would have been better if they moved RusNats back and even better if they had taken precautionary steps to prevent everyone from getting sick..but...lol)

 

[chasingneverland]

Hasn't Dima been ill since then? That may have factored into the decision, although I am sad for him.

Yeah, he's had an Alionaesque year.

He missed test skates because of his back injury. And then withdrew from the 5th stage and RusNats because of COVID.

(I actually think it was a little easier for Aliona to make World's because she just had to beat Liza T. Dimtri had to beat like 6 people to get the World's spot.) While the ladies are more top heavy, the men have less spots and have more skaters in realistic contention for a spot - so it's a bloodbath (or a splatfest for the men) and a tall order either way.

But yeah, they've both had injuries and both got COVID - hard year for reigning Euros champions. Both were part of the Rostelecom/birthday party super-spreader ensuring both got COVID and missed at least the next two events (Aliona also missed Channel 1 Cup). It's super unfortunate both got COVID but neither were back to form even before the additional setback. Both do not make it to World's (although at least Dimitri's been before) as neither could recover completely in time.

 

[chasingneverland]

Speaking of alternates, I was surprised to see only one alternate named for pairs. Can anyone enlighten me as to the reasoning?

They don't really have anyone after P/K.

The others are juniors/just left juniors/don't have the tech minimums. P/R are arguably next but they were juniors last year so haven't debuted internationally as seniors yet. K/B definitely don't have their tech minimums as they've only competed domestically and she was a singles skater as recently as 2019. I think if they have to replace two teams they're waaaaay better to only have 2 teams.

 

[Amei]

I would like to see the Russian men do well enough where they can get a 3rd spot for the Olympics.

My goodness! 11th s so deserving of a world spot over someone who won Europeans and nationals last year. I guess it's the Russian federation working their magic again.

Even Yagudin is dubious about this move and said Aliev would be able to score higher than Semenenko. But what does Yags know? Hes only one of the all time greats. Yes hes a pain in the you know but he was a great great skater and knows the sport inside out.

I think most of us thought Mark K would get the nod over Dimitri if it went to they went with one of the younger guys. I guess the fed didn't see Mark skate at the team competition.

Whatever happened to Russian nationals being the end all deciding world spots and I'm not talking about junior's? Junior nationals is for junior worlds.

Russia should be favored to win the team gold in the Olympics next season. But the men could cost them the team gold again.
The good news is the Russian team will have ladies and pairs to dominate and I guess keep their fingers crossed about dance and men.

Will both lady alternates Alyona and Nugu go to Stockholm as well? I think they both have to be there in case of injury or sickness and the Corona virus world we live in my have to be ready to go they have to train like they are actually one of the 3 at worlds. Especially Alyona because she's 1st off as an alternate.

Well consider that Aliev has not competed much this year: Channel 1 Cup placed 4th of the men, Cup of Russia Final placed 3rd lost to Semenko, and Rostelecom Cup - he placed 5th vs. Semenko's sixth. Semenko has competed a lot this year (especially when you consider the season): won Jr nationals, Sr. Cup Final, 1 Cup stage, placed 4th at the other cup stage, placed 11th at Nationals (I'm aware that 11th isn't something fantastic to put on his resume), 3rd at Ice Star and 6th at GP Russia and this is his first real senior season.

Plus Aliev has been injured and sick this season (otherwise I'm sure he would have competed more) so there's no guarantee he's in decent shape to do well. All of the Russian men are just as likely to pancake it vs. light it up, so if you are going to gamble why not go with a skater that has been put through their paces at competition vs. someone whose barely competed - Russia has had a pretty decent number of competitions for their skaters, either these competitions matter domestically or they were useless and picking Aliev who has not been to many competitions this season and hasn't been stellar in the ones he has been to would be spitting on the season the Fed did put together and in the face of skaters who have competed and put up decent results in the competitions they've had this year.

 

[Scott512]

Well consider that Aliev has not competed much this year: Channel 1 Cup placed 4th of the men, Cup of Russia Final placed 3rd lost to Semenko, and Rostelecom Cup - he placed 5th vs. Semenko's sixth. Semenko has competed a lot this year (especially when you consider the season): won Jr nationals, Sr. Cup Final, 1 Cup stage, placed 4th at the other cup stage, placed 11th at Nationals (I'm aware that 11th isn't something fantastic to put on his resume), 3rd at Ice Star and 6th at GP Russia and this is his first real senior season.

Plus Aliev has been injured and sick this season (otherwise I'm sure he would have competed more) so there's no guarantee he's in decent shape to do well. All of the Russian men are just as likely to pancake it vs. light it up, so if you are going to gamble why not go with a skater that has been put through their paces at competition vs. someone whose barely competed - Russia has had a pretty decent number of competitions for their skaters, either these competitions matter domestically or they were useless and picking Aliev who has not been to many competitions this season and hasn't been stellar in the ones he has been to would be spitting on the season the Fed did put together and in the face of skaters who have competed and put up decent results in the competitions they've had this year.

Probably so. But 11th at senior national should disqualify you for worlds team. Unless the competition is so mediocre it doesn't disqualify you.

Either way I guess they can't count on any of the men. I certainly hope these 2 guys come up big enough where they could get 3 and the Olympics next year. But I'm not sure how likely that is.

 

[chasingneverland]

Probably so. But 11th at senior national should disqualify you for worlds team. Unless the competition is so mediocre it doesn't disqualify you.

Either way I guess they can't count on any of the men. I certainly hope these 2 guys come up big enough where they could get 3 and the Olympics next year. But I'm not sure how likely that is.

That haha

And considering that Mikail isn't exactly a beacon of consistency either - he's had some shaky skates too particular at the Challenge cup in the SP recently - and combined their placements need to equal 13 or less....it's a bit of a tall order..they'll need some luck.

Fortunately for them everyone else is also a disaster waiting to happen haha. Basically after Nathan and Hanyu, there are like 10 skaters who could win bronze but could also get 13th place haha.

 

[Scott512]

Well Aliona is also the reigning Euros champion. (And GPF champion and placed second at RusNats last year.) And they chose to send Liza T over her. (It's deserved but the same principle applies.)

Well none of the men are consistent. Dimitri is still recovering from first a back injury and then COVID (and he didn't go to RusNats at all). As for Mark, well he placed well at Channel 1 Trophy and the RusNats but struggled at the CupFinal. Dimitri also struggled at the Russian Cup final. (Both Mark and he placed 8th and 9th in the SP which is arguably the most important for World's because you have to get the FS.) And Evgeni won the RusCup Final. (And won jr RusNats.) Also keep in mind, it's not like any of the men (including Mikhail are consistent - it's super risky no matter who you take so you go with the person who won the event you said would determine the spots.

For both Liza T and Evgeni (as well as M/G) they went with RusCup Final results, where Evgeni and M/G won and Liza T did the best of all the skaters who weren't juniors so not eligible to go. And this WAS KNOWN AHEAD OF TIME.

Because of COVID being a weird year and because there were no international competitions AND because THE ENTIRE RUSSIAN NATIONAL TEAM (or at least the ones in legitimate contention for spots) got COVID/pneumonia/injured/or something else, they said before RusNats that they would be looking at other competitions (meaning the entire season) when naming the team for Worlds and that RusNats was no longer the sole indicator - because pretty much everyone withdrew from something or if they didn't withdraw they struggled somewhere - especially because a not insignificant amount across all four disciples weren't at RusNats or if they were weren't back to form yet.

RusNats would determine the first spots - all the champions were named to the team then - Mikhail, Anna, T/M, S/B. And technically Sasha and B/K and Z/G based on RusNats/body of work. (They weren't officially named but didn't have to go to the Cup Final as they were told they had spots already.)

Therefore, RusCup Final was to name the last spots in all four disciplines.

They were consistent and named the winners of the RusCupFinal which everyone knew - you won and you got to go - unless something crazy happened or it was waay to close to call. It wasn't and Aliona and Dimitri struggled to get back to form which was all they really were waiting for. You're arguing that the RusFed is working their magic and what happened to RusNats being the deciding factor?? It's because the RusFed were "working their magic" that Dimitri and Aliona had a shot at all. (They both missed RusNats but the Fed wanted them to have a chance to make the team.)

So, for men the spot came down to Dimitri vs everyone else pretty much haha. Evgeni won, so he was going.
For ladies, the spot came down to Aliona vs Liza T (and kinda others?? but really just them). Liza T won (of the eligible seniors), so she was going.
For pairs, the spot came down to M/G vs P/K. M/G won, so they were going.
For ice dance, the spot was S/K but they missed nationals. RusFed was definitely not going to name the bronze team haha. Anyway, S/K won here, so they were going. (Once again they really really really wanted their Euro champions to make it..but you actually had to win at Cup Final and show you were on an upward trend.)

Things make a lot of sense when you look at all the disciplines and remember EVERYONE was seriously ill or seriously hurt this season and RusFed wanted to give their RusNational team time to recover so refused to name the team at RusNats. (Of course, it would have been better if they moved RusNats back and even better if they had taken precautionary steps to prevent everyone from getting sick..but...lol)

I can't compare the Russian men to the Russian women. One discipline is great 1 is mediocre I guess.

Who is Evgenis coach?

Evgeni won what? The Russan cup final among men? Damn. Lol. That supposed to overcome his eleventh at nationals? Aliev has won Europeans and is the defending champion. That title is like 50 times more important than the Russian cup final. Oh wait it was a year ago so it doesn't count.

Rukavicin skaters keep getting bleeped on by the fed. Lol. But it's sad.

Are you going to tell the reigning and defending European champion you have to beat some kid after coming off ankle surgery and Corona virus? Aliev is fine now. He is finding his form. If Evgeni pulls a Stasya at worlds alot of people will be unhappy.

I hope both guys do well at worlds. I certainly don't trust either of them. But how is someone who finished 11th at nationals in a mediocre field a couple months ago going to possibly make the top 10 at worlds? Kolyada could make the top 5. I'm hoping he does that at the very least.

 

[Scott512]

That haha

And considering that Mikail isn't exactly a beacon of consistency either - he's had some shaky skates too particular at the Challenge cup in the SP recently - and combined their placements need to equal 13 or less....it's a bit of a tall order..they'll need some luck.

Fortunately for them everyone else is also a disaster waiting to happen haha. Basically after Nathan and Hanyu, there are like 10 skaters who could win bronze but could also get 13th place haha.

Yes you last paragraph really sums it up. There's a lot of hit a mess there outside of the talk to men.

 

[Scott512]

Hasn't Dima been ill since then? That may have factored into the decision, although I am sad for him.

The Russian Figure Skating Fed strategy thus far has been pretty bad, Evgeni S seems to be gaining momentum rather than having peaked at Nats. I think it's worth sending him.

Then there's the added benefit that if it all goes wrong then the Fed can blame and blacklist Evgeni S rather than Dima, which sounds like just the sort of thing they'd do.

I'll take that take of yours. Maybe Semenenko has momentum since nationals. But you would never see whoever finished 11th at ladies Russian nationals be placed on to the world's team at number 2.

The Russian fed can not afford to blacklist any of these men. That discipline isn't exactly loaded like the ladies is.

Eteri needs a male skater. Maybe Dima will go to her at least she has some political power on her side that his current coach 2 who coaches many fine skaters does not. Rukavicin skaters always get lowballed and usually the short end of the stick. Dima had a fine year last season but a tough one physically this year. And if he caught Corona virus by partying with friends gatherings and things like that that would bother me. I think a lot of the Russian skaters did not take along a virus and seriously as they should have. I suppose that's to be expected because we could say the same or even worse about the federation and their handling of Corona virus.

What would these 2 Russian men need to do to get 3 spots for Olympics and worlds next year? Both in the top 51 in the top 3 one 5 or 6?

 

[chasingneverland]

I can't compare the Russian men to the Russian women. One discipline is great 1 is mediocre I guess.

Who is Evgenis coach?

Evgeni won what? The Russan cup final among men? Damn. Lol. That supposed to overcome his eleventh at nationals? Aliev has won Europeans and is the defending champion. That title is like 50 times more important than the Russian cup final. Oh wait it was a year ago so it doesn't count.

Rukavicin skaters keep getting bleeped on by the fed. Lol. But it's sad.

Are you going to tell the reigning and defending European champion you have to beat some kid after coming off ankle surgery and Corona virus? Aliev is fine now. He is finding his form. If Evgeni pulls a Stasya at worlds alot of people will be unhappy.

I hope both guys do well at worlds. I certainly don't trust either of them. But how is someone who finished 11th at nationals in a mediocre field a couple months ago going to possibly make the top 10 at worlds? Kolyada could make the top 5. I'm hoping he does that at the very least.

The first point isn't a fair comparison.

For the Russian men, everyone who is competitive has a quad and a 3As (and some have more than one quad) in their SP. There are only two ladies who currently even have 3As in their SPs - Liza (and Liza's isn't completely stable) and Kamila (and Kamila is a junior). And while the rules prevent them from adding a quad to their SP - there are only three ladies that can do quads reliably - Anna, Sasha, and Kamila (and once again Kamila is a junior.)

For the FS it's the same but the difference is even more. Essentially the entire field does both quads and 3As and anyone who plans on being a contender does at least 4 ultra-c elements. Sasha and Kamila are the only ones who can match that technically. Sasha's only skated 4 ultra-c elements (4 quads) cleanly once (and it's been a disaster every other time and the only reason she wasn't 11th is because she still has the BV to beat everyone who doesn't have a ultra-c element which is the entire field). Kamila has also never skated 4 ultra-c elements cleanly - the cleanest she's been is on her 3 ultra-c element program (3A, 4T-2T, 4T) which she's also only skated cleanly once. Anna has also only skated 3 ultra-c elements (4Lz-3T, 4F, 4Lz) cleanly once.

So it isn't a fair comparison. The men have to do more difficult elements and as we've seen with them and as we're starting to see with the ladies, the more difficult elements you attempt the harder it is to skate cleanly. Fortunately for the ladies, they don't NEED ultra-c elements quite yet. And they also don't need more than one especially to make the national team. To win yes, but Anna won RusNats with two quads. Mikhail won RusNats with two quads and 2 3As (one backloaded.) (Evgeni whom you're upset came in 11th attempted a 4Lo, 4T, 4S, and two backloaded 3As - Nathan Chen would struggle to land that cleanly.)

Another reason it isn't a fair comparison is Anna is 16, Kamila is 14, Sasha is 16. Liza is 24 but she's also behind 2 other 14 year olds (one of whom doesn't have any ultra-c elements and one of whom has only landed hers cleanly once). Mikhail is 26, Makar is 20, Dimitri is 21, Samarin is 22, Petr is 18 - Mark, Andrei, and Evgeni are the babies at 17. We don't even know if the ladies can keep their quads at 17 - although we hope so for Anna and Sasha's sake. Aliona at 17 hasn't managed to reach her previous peak and that was even before she got COVID.

Aliev wasn't even at RusNats so is 11th really worse? And Aliev placed below Evgeni the RusCup Final - which they SAID was the deciding factor - I don't understand why that's so hard to understand. And they were essentially tied the only other time they met - Rostelecom - which was before COVID anyway.

And yes, Aliev did have to? Same with Aliona. And they knew that. They gave them every chance to make the time by NOT naming the team at RusNats. And the fact is, no you're wrong, Aliev isn't back to form yet.

And as for Evgeni he also won against that mediocre field at RusCup Final a couple months later. Like I don't get your argument? Do you need to win against the RusNats field? Well technically Evgeni DID DO THAT two months later with the only exceptions being Mikhail (who btw also faltered at the Challenge Cup - only scoring about 5 points higher than Evgeni did here) and Samarin (who withdrew as he's clearly not in an competitive shape.)

I don't trust any of them to be consistent BUT that applies for Dimitri as well.

 

[chasingneverland]

Eteri needs a male skater. Maybe Dima will go to her at least she has some political power on her side that his current coach 2 who coaches many fine skaters does not. Rukavicin skaters always get lowballed and usually the short end of the stick. Dima had a fine year last season but a tough one physically this year. And if he caught Corona virus by partying with friends gatherings and things like that that would bother me. I think a lot of the Russian skaters did not take along a virus and seriously as they should have. I suppose that's to be expected because we could say the same or even worse about the federation and their handling of Corona virus.

What would these 2 Russian men need to do to get 3 spots for Olympics and worlds next year? Both in the top 51 in the top 3 one 5 or 6?

Haha. Eteri has yet to get a male skater who doesn't break and not make it to seniors. She's had star juniors who have dominated at the junior levvel (Adian, Illia, Alexei) and she has Daniil now but none of them have made it to seniors. She did have Sergei for two years but he was already an established senior having been to Euros and World's for years before she got him. She also has Morisi but he's not Russian and wouldn't be competitive if he was (the highlight of his career is a bronze at Euros where he scored a 246 - that would be 9th at the previously stated mediocre RusNats.)

I still don't understand why you want to make an exception for Dima? Would you sent Aliona to World's? It's the same case.

And to get three spots they need to have their placements add up to 13 or less. So some combination of at worst: 1-12 (not happening), 2-11 (also not happening), 3-10 (super not likely but possible), 4-9, 5-8, and 6-7 (the last 3 are possibilities even if unlikely). Essentially they both need to place in the top 10 (but not like 9-10, 8-9, 7-8) - but really they need Mikhail to be 3rd or 4th and Evgeni hang on and to place in the top 10 (depending on what Mikhail is at) and he has the tech to do so which I think is what they're hoping for. (It's not v likely to happen but Dimitri wouldn't make a difference). There are like 10 men that could all get bronze but could all easily be 13th and that's without a meltdown haha - fortunately that makes is a bit likely to happen haha because everyone else is also just as likely to be 13th too haha. There are also 10 men who Dimitri wouldn't be guaranteed to outscore anyway.

So really, they're hoping to keep the two spots so it doesn't matter who you send (and 3 spots would be an unexpected surprise). And for that they just need their total placements to be less than or equal to 28.

There's also the hope that Dimi and Sasha S will be better for next year to try to make the Olympics team. (They just need to not lose spots here - they're not really aiming to gain them haha.)

 

[FayD]

There's really no Russian man number 2 at the moment, they all had some good performances and some disaster ones, so I don't see a problem with going by RC Final results. Advocating for Dima to be sent based on reputation is kinda ironic given the usual outrage when feds disregard their selection criteria.

 

[DizzyFrenchie]

(...) Aliona at 17 hasn't managed to reach her previous peak and that was even before she got COVID.

(...)

I had absolutely to answer to that.
We haven't seen her, after even four months of on-ice training without a long interruption (2 weeks or more) (as a reference, other Ladies had 3½ months on-ice training at... test skates), she's grown at least 5cm, and in spite of that she said at Rostelecom Cup (after her longest on-ice period of the season) that she had then a 20% success rate at her 3A, too low to include it in a program, but only CoViD prevented her from recovering it enough to jump it at competitions. And if you saw her skate at Cup of Russia final, her 2As were great (but even if she had already her 3A back at practice, she couldn't jump it in a program if she wanted to hold on to the end) and her skating skill progress was impressive, just she was still early in convalescence. I am so impressed by her achievements, considering what was really her 2020-2021 season (general confinement until 26/05, team switching confinement 17/07 to 02/08, CoViD confinement second half of November, sore throat three weeks ago).
Although a big Aliona fan, and considering that when she's back to her top (for which she chiefly wants breathe) she will beat a clean Elizaveta Tuktamysheva by far (unless the latter gets an operational 4T), it would be too big of a risk to send her hoping she's recovered enough by Worlds to skate two perfect programs which, anyway, would place her fourth if everybody skate clean, like Elizaveta Tuktamysheva; both would be medallable if they skate clean and if one of the top three have falls. Of course, there is little to no likelihood that Russia could lose their third spot for Ladies, so this main risk is limited, but at the date of Worlds, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva is a better insurance at having at least two Russian Ladies on the podium, than Aliona Kostornaia. They are without a doubt the Top 4 with Rika Kihira, while an Aliona Kostornaia still at the level she skated last Weekend (and how to assess her progress in the next 3 weeks?) would maybe not be in this Top 4. So, for Ladies, the choice was evident, unlike in 2019 when they chose Sofia Samodurova whose maximum score could hardly pass 210 over the same Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, who clearly could score much higher, just because the former had just won Europeans out of a series of unexpected events. Plus, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva knows perfectly well this is her last Worlds unless she gets 4T AND 4S, and she has proven lately she was eager to grasp that sort of opportunity. Great for her, and for her federation.

I don't find the answer just as evident with Men, I find there are valid arguments both ways.

 

[Veronica245]

If you have seen Russian men skate all year, the choice of Semenenko isn’t dubious at all. He is probably the most stable one of all of them, he had one bad performance, short in nationals, while both Aliev and Ignatov have been shaky and very inconsistent. Aliev also got greatly overscored at the Russian cup finals. And he isn’t in his best form, injuries and corona cost him greatly, it’s unfortunate, but he did not earn this spot. This is clearly not Semenenko’s Olympics his would be next cycle, but exposure to international judges would do him a world of good, and at 17 he doesn’t feel the pressure like the rest of them and obviously has the best coaching team behind him.
P.S. Eteri can’t coach boys this has been proven oh several occasions.

 

[Scott512]

The first point isn't a fair comparison.

For the Russian men, everyone who is competitive has a quad and a 3As (and some have more than one quad) in their SP. There are only two ladies who currently even have 3As in their SPs - Liza (and Liza's isn't completely stable) and Kamila (and Kamila is a junior). And while the rules prevent them from adding a quad to their SP - there are only three ladies that can do quads reliably - Anna, Sasha, and Kamila (and once again Kamila is a junior.)

For the FS it's the same but the difference is even more. Essentially the entire field does both quads and 3As and anyone who plans on being a contender does at least 4 ultra-c elements. Sasha and Kamila are the only ones who can match that technically. Sasha's only skated 4 ultra-c elements (4 quads) cleanly once (and it's been a disaster every other time and the only reason she wasn't 11th is because she still has the BV to beat everyone who doesn't have a ultra-c element which is the entire field). Kamila has also never skated 4 ultra-c elements cleanly - the cleanest she's been is on her 3 ultra-c element program (3A, 4T-2T, 4T) which she's also only skated cleanly once. Anna has also only skated 3 ultra-c elements (4Lz-3T, 4F, 4Lz) cleanly once.

So it isn't a fair comparison. The men have to do more difficult elements and as we've seen with them and as we're starting to see with the ladies, the more difficult elements you attempt the harder it is to skate cleanly. Fortunately for the ladies, they don't NEED ultra-c elements quite yet. And they also don't need more than one especially to make the national team. To win yes, but Anna won RusNats with two quads. Mikhail won RusNats with two quads and 2 3As (one backloaded.) (Evgeni whom you're upset came in 11th attempted a 4Lo, 4T, 4S, and two backloaded 3As - Nathan Chen would struggle to land that cleanly.)

Another reason it isn't a fair comparison is Anna is 16, Kamila is 14, Sasha is 16. Liza is 24 but she's also behind 2 other 14 year olds (one of whom doesn't have any ultra-c elements and one of whom has only landed hers cleanly once). Mikhail is 26, Makar is 20, Dimitri is 21, Samarin is 22, Petr is 18 - Mark, Andrei, and Evgeni are the babies at 17. We don't even know if the ladies can keep their quads at 17 - although we hope so for Anna and Sasha's sake. Aliona at 17 hasn't managed to reach her previous peak and that was even before she got COVID.

Aliev wasn't even at RusNats so is 11th really worse? And Aliev placed below Evgeni the RusCup Final - which they SAID was the deciding factor - I don't understand why that's so hard to understand. And they were essentially tied the only other time they met - Rostelecom - which was before COVID anyway.

And yes, Aliev did have to? Same with Aliona. And they knew that. They gave them every chance to make the time by NOT naming the team at RusNats. And the fact is, no you're wrong, Aliev isn't back to form yet.

And as for Evgeni he also won against that mediocre field at RusCup Final a couple months later. Like I don't get your argument? Do you need to win against the RusNats field? Well technically Evgeni DID DO THAT two months later with the only exceptions being Mikhail (who btw also faltered at the Challenge Cup - only scoring about 5 points higher than Evgeni did here) and Samarin (who withdrew as he's cleanly not in an competitive shape.)

I don't trust any of them to be consistent BUT that applies for Dimitri as well.

Dimas covid should not be held against him.

No question if he did not catch Coronavirus or need ankle surgery Dima would be on the world's team.

If Semenenko is bombing practices at worlds will they pull him for Dima?

To answer your question yes 11th is really worse than not skating in a somewhat mediocre men's field. But you make many excellent points and would make a good attorney.

 

[chasingneverland]

I had absolutely to answer to that.
We haven't seen her, after even four months of on-ice training without a long interruption (2 weeks or more) (as a reference, other Ladies had 3½ months on-ice training at... test skates), she's grown at least 5cm, and in spite of that she said at Rostelecom Cup (after her longest on-ice period of the season) that she had then a 20% success rate at her 3A, too low to include it in a program, but only CoViD prevented her from recovering it enough to jump it at competitions. And if you saw her skate at Cup of Russia final, her 2As were great (but even if she had already her 3A back at practice, she couldn't jump it in a program if she wanted to hold on to the end) and her skating skill progress was impressive, just she was still early in convalescence. I am so impressed by her achievements, considering what was really her 2020-2021 season (general confinement until 26/05, team switching confinement 17/07 to 02/08, CoViD confinement second half of November, sore throat three weeks ago).

These need to be addressed point by point:
(1) (as a reference, other Ladies had 3½ months on-ice training at... test skates): That's not true. Anna, Kamila, etc had only returned back to their ice rink at Crystal the beginning of August. Test skates were September 12-13, 2020. That's only one month later not 3.5 months later. (They did do a summer camp but Aliona was there too - it's when she got her new programs. Also no one got their jumps back then. And regardless it's a moot point because it was the same for Aliona as it was for Anna.)
(2) she's grown at least 5cm: Everyone else grew too. (Except for Liza haha but Anna, Sasha, Kamila (especially) also grew a lot as well.) Anna and Kamila especially have at least started to go through puberty.
(3) Rostelecom Cup (after her longest on-ice period of the season) that she had then a 20% success rate at her 3A, too low to include it in a program, but only CoViD prevented her from recovering it enough to jump it at competitions: This is the most egregious timeline mistake. Aliona didn't get COVID until AFTER Rostelecom Cup. (Technically she caught it AT Rostelecom Cup.) So she could not be prevented from recovering from something that she didn't have yet. Unless you mean that her training was interrupted not her health in general and to that I say that applies to ALL of them.
(4) general confinement until 26/05, team switching confinement 17/07 to 02/08, CoViD confinement second half of November, sore throat three weeks ago: Alright but let's look at what applies for everyone. General confinement until 26/05 - that applies for literally EVERYONE. She was still at Sambo here so that applies for ALL her competitors and not just Sambo skaters, ALL skaters - so that's a wash right there. Team switching confinement 17/07 to 02/08 - That's fair but Anna didn't return to the Sambo rink until August 3 (ish) so that's pretty close anyway. The difference is that Sambo was planned out and this switch wasn't so she had to start with everything anew but the time off ice is similar. COVID confinement second half of November: Anna missed Rostelecom due to pneumonia so she was already sick by the 20th of November but likely earlier. She potentially was sick from any time after the last week in October (after her second stage.) Anna also skated with a fever at RusNats the last week in DECEMBER. So we know she wasn't still just recovering - she was still sick as she said she'd had fevers for a month by the end of December. And Anna wasn't doing runthroughs yet - she was too sick to do them - her first runthrough after first getting sick was AT RusNats December 26-27, 2020. So we know Anna had pneumonia for at least a month to 1.5 months. Now Liza got COVID at Rostelecom (Novemeber 20-22) - the same place and the same time Aliona got COVID. (And others - this event was a super-spreader.) So she was also confined due to COVID and barely made it through her programs as she was still recovering at RusNats - one month later. Mishin - like Eteri/doctors/parents with Anna - wanted to withdraw her from RusNats as she was still recovering.

As for was she impressive? Eh, she made it through her skates but her skating skills, spins, etc (ignoring her jumps) weren't anywhere near what she can do or for that matter what plenty of others not in contention could do. At the Cup Final,she was thoroughly out-skated by Kamila, Maiia, Daria, Liza T, and Anna F. And not just in terms of jumps. Performance-wise she was well behind several others as well. Even if she hadn't made that mistake in the SP she would still be 6th in the SP. Overall she can count her lucky stars that the RusFed had no intention of sending Ksenia T, Liza N, or Sofia S to Worlds and therefore hammered them.

Although a big Aliona fan, and considering that when she's back to her top (for which she chiefly wants breathe) she will beat a clean Elizaveta Tuktamysheva by far (unless the latter gets an operational 4T), it would be too big of a risk to send her hoping she's recovered enough by Worlds to skate two perfect programs which, anyway, would place her fourth if everybody skate clean, like Elizaveta Tuktamysheva; both would be medallable if they skate clean and if one of the top three have falls. Of course, there is little to no likelihood that Russia could lose their third spot for Ladies, so this main risk is limited, but at the date of Worlds, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva is a better insurance at having at least two Russian Ladies on the podium, than Aliona Kostornaia. They are without a doubt the Top 4 with Rika Kihira, while an Aliona Kostornaia still at the level she skated last Weekend (and how to assess her progress in the next 3 weeks?) would maybe not be in this Top 4. So, for Ladies, the choice was evident, unlike in 2019 when they chose Sofia Samodurova whose maximum score could hardly pass 210 over the same Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, who clearly could score much higher, just because the former had just won Europeans out of a series of unexpected events. Plus, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva knows perfectly well this is her last Worlds unless she gets 4T AND 4S, and she has proven lately she was eager to grasp that sort of opportunity. Great for her, and for her federation.

I don't find the answer just as evident with Men, I find there are valid arguments both ways.

As for where Aliona would place if she were sent to Worlds? She's not getting her 3A back for World's. She would need to work on getting all her triples back consistently first.

And even if she did she would definitely not be 4th if everyone is clean haha. Even if Anna and Sasha and Rika aren't clean they'll still score 225-240 with some huge mistakes. Anna scored almost 238 at Euros and she was no where near clean. She under-rotated her 4F, fell on a downgraded 4Lz, and under-rotated her 3Lo. Sasha was even less clean as she popped her 3A into a 2A and stepped out of it in the SP. She also fell on her 4Lz and fell on a downgraded 4T in the FS. Sasha still scored 225 with 3 huge mistakes. Rika at 4CC did a 3S instead of a 4S and popped her 3A into a single 1A in the FS and still scored a 232.

Aliona (without her 3As but if clean) is around 215. Anna, Sasha, and Rika are untouchable even with large mistakes and their PCS will be higher this year.

Then let's look at everyone else:

Kaori and Bradie are about 220-230 even when not completely clean. Aliona can't touch that. Also Kaori will be number 2 for her Fed and Bradie will be number 1. Aliona will be number 3.

So here Aliona will be 6th. And that's if she's clean.

She's also have to look out for:
Sakoto - around 210 (even when she gets some calls).
As well as several others who can score around 200-205ish (even when not completely clean):
Karen, Yelim, Loena and potentially Hae-in.

But yeah, Aliona would most likely be 6th at World's- if she was clean and could stabilize her other triples. LIza T has a realistic shot for 4th in a battle with Kaori and Bradie as she's also around 220-230. (Aliona wouldn't.)

 

[Scott512]

If you have seen Russian men skate all year, the choice of Semenenko isn’t dubious at all. He is probably the most stable one of all of them, he had one bad performance, short in nationals, while both Aliev and Ignatov have been shaky and very inconsistent. Aliev also got greatly overscored at the Russian cup finals. And he isn’t in his best form, injuries and corona cost him greatly, it’s unfortunate, but he did not earn this spot. This is clearly not Semenenko’s Olympics his would be next cycle, but exposure to international judges would do him a world of good, and at 17 he doesn’t feel the pressure like the rest of them and obviously has the best coaching team behind him.
P.S. Eteri can’t coach boys this has been proven oh several occasions.

But Eteri has what some of the Russian men need and that's clout and power and reputation. She has also coached a male junior world champion. That's nothing to sneeze at. Yes her focus is girls and women because she has coached more elite girls and women in the last five years than any coach has in the history of the sport in one discipline. But at some point EG is going to want to turn her attention back to men or a man and Aliev is the obvious choice if he can handle her sometimes hard hitting criticisms. Rukavicin is an excellent coach for both sexes. But he ain't Eteri the Fed fears her they don't fear Rukavicin. If an Olympic spot is on the line for Aliev he would have a better chance of going if Eteri was his coach. That matters. Hell under the same circumstances he would be going to Worlds this year if EG was his coach.

But it is what it is and we could only wish them much success and good health.

 

[Scott512]

I had absolutely to answer to that.
We haven't seen her, after even four months of on-ice training without a long interruption (2 weeks or more) (as a reference, other Ladies had 3½ months on-ice training at... test skates), she's grown at least 5cm, and in spite of that she said at Rostelecom Cup (after her longest on-ice period of the season) that she had then a 20% success rate at her 3A, too low to include it in a program, but only CoViD prevented her from recovering it enough to jump it at competitions. And if you saw her skate at Cup of Russia final, her 2As were great (but even if she had already her 3A back at practice, she couldn't jump it in a program if she wanted to hold on to the end) and her skating skill progress was impressive, just she was still early in convalescence. I am so impressed by her achievements, considering what was really her 2020-2021 season (general confinement until 26/05, team switching confinement 17/07 to 02/08, CoViD confinement second half of November, sore throat three weeks ago).
Although a big Aliona fan, and considering that when she's back to her top (for which she chiefly wants breathe) she will beat a clean Elizaveta Tuktamysheva by far (unless the latter gets an operational 4T), it would be too big of a risk to send her hoping she's recovered enough by Worlds to skate two perfect programs which, anyway, would place her fourth if everybody skate clean, like Elizaveta Tuktamysheva; both would be medallable if they skate clean and if one of the top three have falls. Of course, there is little to no likelihood that Russia could lose their third spot for Ladies, so this main risk is limited, but at the date of Worlds, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva is a better insurance at having at least two Russian Ladies on the podium, than Aliona Kostornaia. They are without a doubt the Top 4 with Rika Kihira, while an Aliona Kostornaia still at the level she skated last Weekend (and how to assess her progress in the next 3 weeks?) would maybe not be in this Top 4. So, for Ladies, the choice was evident, unlike in 2019 when they chose Sofia Samodurova whose maximum score could hardly pass 210 over the same Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, who clearly could score much higher, just because the former had just won Europeans out of a series of unexpected events. Plus, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva knows perfectly well this is her last Worlds unless she gets 4T AND 4S, and she has proven lately she was eager to grasp that sort of opportunity. Great for her, and for her federation.

I don't find the answer just as evident with Men, I find there are valid arguments both ways.

There are valid Arguments for both sides. But coronavirus for some of these skaters has muddled things quite a lot and if not for Coronavirus I think Aliona and Dima would have made the worlds team.

I also wish the Russian Federation had taken coronavirus more seriously because as we know now athletes are not immune to it even though they have great immune systems add are in phenomenal shape.

 

[chasingneverland]

Dimas covid should not be held against him.

No question if he did not catch Coronavirus or need ankle surgery Dima would be on the world's team.

If Semenenko is bombing practices at worlds will they pull him for Dima?

To answer your question yes 11th is really worse than not skating in a somewhat mediocre men's field. But you make many excellent points and would make a good attorney.

They didn't hold Dima's COVID against him. They allowed him to make his case by taking the Cup Finals into account - if he had won he would be going. He placed 3rd and was 9th after the SP.

Yes, that's true. Also I was under the impression it was Dima's back not ankle. Regardless, Aliona got COVID and they're not sending her. Liza T also got COVID and she recovered enough to go. If it was JUST Dima they might have but essentially the entire national team (and all the pairs got COVID). There comes a point where it's not exception and merely a part of the season.

And if Aliona hadn't gotten COVID and injuries she would be on the World's team. If Liza T hadn't gotten COVID she might have her 4T back for RusNats. If Sasha hadn't gotten injured she'd have her 3A and a 3-4 quad program for RusNats. If Anna hadn't gotten pneumonia she would have her 3 quad program back from RusNats. If Mikhail hadn't gotten sinusitis he wouldn't have missed the 2019-2020 season - and he did get sick when Liza T got COVID although apparently not with COVID?? If the World's hadn't been cancelled last year one of Anna, Sasha, Aliona, or Rika (likely Aliona but you never know) would be World's champion and two others would be medalists. If the international junior season wasn't cancelled Kamila would likely defend her World Junior title and Daria and Maiia might be medalists. If Liza hadn't gotten pneumonia after the GPF in 2018 she would have gone to World's in 2019. If Anna hadn't broken her leg in 2017 she might have been known as the groundbreaker rather than or with Sasha - she had a 4T before it happened which she had in combo in practice (she could do a 4T-3T and a 4T-3T-3Lo) and she would likely have more junior medals. Her injury also prevented her from training the 4T again until potentially now.

If. If. If.

And no, they won't. Because Dima also bombs practices and so does everyone else.

There is something that needs to be said for Evgeni's 11th at nationals. That's that (1) it was never planned he would make the team and (2) he approached nationals like Kamila did RusNats and the CupFinal. As a chance to attempt a harder layout in competition not something he would actually do unless he could stabilize it.

At the SP at RusNats, he did a 4S, 3A, and a backloaded 3F-COMBO-3T mess where he invalidated his 3T and fell on his CSSp - he basically did a Kamila Valieva at the FS of the CupFinal. It was his first senior nationals and he was there just for the experience. It's also important to note that his SP at Juniors a month later was a 3A, 3Lz, and a backloaded 3F-3T - where he was perfectly clean. And then at the Cup Final a month after that he did a 4T-3T, 4S, and a backloaded 3A - where he was also clean.

At the FS at RusNats, he fell on a downgraded 4Lo, fell on an underrotated 4T, landed a 4S, and had two backloaded 3As (3A-3T and 3A) where he landed the first and fell on the second. (This was another attempt at kinda throwing all difficulty at a program just for fun - like Sasha has done and Kamila did at the Cup Final). For the record, Nathen Chen wouldn't land this cleanly all the time haha. At juniors, he landed his 4T, popped his 4S into a double, landed his 3A-3T, landed his backloaded 3A, and then kinda messed up his next jump with a weird downgraded Eu in his 3F-Eu-3S. (And then did the patented 3Lo-3A-Seq haha.) But here already a month later he wasn't just throwing things and was cleaner. He only made one major mistake - a pop on the 4S. (And all the men make at least one major mistake haha.)
I think it's important to remember the Cup Final was 2 months AFTER RusNats and it was his first RusNats. At RusNats he wasn't thought of as a potential team member. As that changed, he changed his layout and improved. And now we come to the FS at the CupFinal. Here he landed a 4T-3T, landed a 4S, popped a 4T into a 2T, landed a backloaded 3A-2T, landed a backloaded 3A, and then fell on his 3F-Eu-3S where the 3S was under-rotated. So here again he was mostly clean - at least for the men haha and he even upgraded his difficulty. For reference his FS TES was actually 4 points higher than Aliev's even with the pop although Aliev had an invalidated 3T because he popped too. The only reason Aliev won the free skate was because his PCS were more than 5 points higher - that won't happen internationally. Fun little fact: In the SP Dima had the lowest TES of the entire field (over 3 points lower than the next lowest) and the highest PCS of the entire field (by about a point higher than the closet one). Dima's SP PCS were 3 points higher than Evgeni's. The RusFed really did ALL they could to try to send him to World's. He had an 8 point PCS advantage to Evgeni over both programs!!

 

[chasingneverland]

Basically there is no clean frontrunner for the men, so I get why they would go with the champion of the most recent competition especially when they said ahead of time they would - and there is precedent - Liza T v Evgenia in 2019.

Also it's irrelevant. Their hopes live or die with Mikhail - the second person just needs to not fall out of the top 10. And that won't matter anyway if Mikhail can't get 3rd of 4th.

It is kinda funny that there is this outrage that Evgeni was chosen and that people want the RusFed NOW to break the rules they said ahead of time.

Especially because with the men, it makes even less sense. They're not leaving a potential bronze medalist at home..they're leaving someone who will be at best 7th at World's but could be 13th-15th without even a catastrophe.

If you can't manage to win Cup Finals with an 8 point PCS advantage which you won't have internationally..when you KNOW you need to do so to go to World's....

I love Dima but he hasn't put together a clean skate all season.