U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

[janetfan]

Sunny, like you, I hope that pro skating and show skating finds more venues again, so audiences can enjoy people like Gordeyeva, a gorgeous skater without jumps. This applies to our topic because I think only if American ladies can become really accomplished internationally will American audiences get interested enough in skating to make TV broadcasting of "extra" shows worthwhile to producers. So I really hope that Gao and the other up-and-comers can revive the dynasty! The general American public seems unimpressed with men's champions, ice dancers, or pairs. Ask anyone who won the Olympic silver ice dancing medal or even the Olympic men's gold, and most people will look at you blankly. But everyone knows Dorothy Hamill.

An interesting point Olympia - and I basically agree with you.
But it has not always been that way. Scott and Brian B. were way more popular than Roz or Debi - and not only because they won OGM's. Certainly that was a big factor but not the only factor.

After Torino I thought B/A would become more popular with the public. But seeing them this year they looked almost unrecognizble to me. The packaging - turning them into E. Euro type skaters did them no favors at at all. I remember the ridiculous costumes for their OD - and how the American public must have thought Ben looked like a circus clown. And why have Tanith dressed so conservatively? It made no sense to me at all.

Back in the late 70's there was this team - and they were the most popular skaters in America.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qm0Zl4Dzcg0&p=9AE8996FE59E004C&playnext=1&index=8

They did commercials, and appeared on the talk show circuit. It had alot to do with John Nicks and the way he packaged them, but their skating style itself was so fresh and innovative and not just another imitation of the Protopopovs.

So we have seen Men's skaters and a Pairs team capture the imagination of the American public.

Evan and even Johnny, who tries so hard to be a star just don't have "it."
Randy and Tai had "it" and of course it helped that they won the WC in '79 and were favorites to medal heading into Lake Placid in 1980.

I do agree the tradition of "Ice Queens" has been a big part of skating to the American public. But I would not rule out champions or even contenders in the other disciplines reaching a level of popularity that we have seen in the past. Maybe it goes in cycles and maybe it also depends on certain factors coming together at the right time.

As to Evan not being nearly as popular as Brian Boitano my expanation would be that it was easy to see that Brian was a great skater, the best in the world. Evan is a CoP champion. He is not the best skater in the world, but was the best at using the CoP in Vancouver.

Whether the American public bothered to check the IJS protocals is not the issue. One does not have to be a proponent of the CoP or a rabid fan to see that Evan is no Brian Boitano.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omJ3CrJf-PQ

Unfortunately no matter what score the judges gave Rachael at Natls it is all too apparent that she is no Dorothy Hamill or Michelle Kwan. She is not even a Linda Fratianne or Roz Sumners because she is simply nowhere close to being the best Lady skater in the world.

So yes, I agree our Ladies need to step it up. Scott and Brian may have been more popular than Roz and Debi - but the fact that Roz and Debi were so competitive and legitimate challengers for Gold most likely helped keep the public interested.

 

[R.D.]

Ah, I forgot, here's the actual link to Wagner's vlog on Youtube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y61y6KF50Uk

 

[FlattFan]

Unfortunately no matter what score the judges gave Rachael at Natls it is all too apparent that she is no Dorothy Hamill or Michelle Kwan. She is not even a Linda Fratianne or Roz Sumners because she is simply nowhere close to being the best Lady skater in the world.

Again, Dorothy Hamill or Michelle Kwan or Linda Fratianne or Roz Sumners wouldn't be the best lady skater if they compete with Mao Asada throughout their competitive career. They are lucky because in those period, there wasn't a great skater outside of America. All great skaters were in America.
You can't compare Rachael situation with those girls.

 

[janetfan]

Again, Dorothy Hamill or Michelle Kwan or Linda Fratianne or Roz Sumners wouldn't be the best lady skater if they compete with Mao Asada throughout their competitive career. They are lucky because in those period, there wasn't a great skater outside of America. All great skaters were in America.
You can't compare Rachael situation with those girls.

You are right - I can't compare Rachael to the other girls. Dorothy was the Olympic and World Champion and a fine professional skater. Your favorite is a great young lady and a good skater. She is just not a great skater by today's standards and doesn't compare with the best in the World.

That was the point of the conversation. Rachael, Mirai, Ashley, Alissa, Caroline are not like Linda, Roz, Debi, Kristi, Nancy or Michelle.

Are you saying Kristi had no competition Or Roz and Debi? Or Nancy? That is as odd as saying Sonja had no competition. Read Nadine's post about Sonja if you think she just showed up and was presented with the OGM.

Being the best in the world in your era counts and nothing will ever change that. Nobody gave Dorothy the OGM. As a matter of fact she had to beat a very good skater who also happened to be the defending WC. In those days there was also a little thing called the school figures that often determined outcomes.

If your point is that Mao in 2010 is a better skater than Dorothy was in 1976 all would agree with you.
But most are also capable of recognizng that would be comparing skaters from eras separated by more than three decades. :sheesh:

Dorothy, Peggy, Tenley, Carol, Mirabel, etc all competed against Japanese skaters. In that era our girls were the best or could compete with the best. Today many can point to the excellence of Mao and other Japanese skaters and say they are currently the best. Many are excited about new Russian Ladies developing and are predicting they will be the best.

One thing is certain and that is USA Ladies need to get more competitive. We saw Rachael skate her best in Vancouver and it simply was miles behind the Ladies on the podium. Mirai atleast made it interesting and came much closer to carrying on the grand tradition of US Ladies skating. Her skating impressed fans all over the world.

 

[Olympia]

In fact, Dorothy, Linda, and Roz competed against what was then a huge skating power: East Germany. Linda and Roz were beaten by East Germans. Dorothy skated against not one but two current or former World Champions: Dianne de Leeuw of the Netherlands (actually she was an American who was qualified to skate for the Netherlands) and Christine Errath of East Germany (WC in 1973 or 1974, I believe). Dorothy had actually never been World Champion at the time of the Olympics. She became the 1976 WC, I believe. None of those three girls was in first place after the school figures, by the way, though they all stood solidly in the rankings so were not eliminated on the strength of the figures score. (A West German named Isabella de Navarre, I seem to recall, was in first place. She was good at school figures and school figures alone. Poor girl had to execute her free skate in front of the TV cameras of the world because she ranked so high. More falls than jumps, as I recall.) So Dorothy wasn't a shoe-in (or is that spelled shoo-in?) for any gold she won.

The point is that everyone in an era has to compete against other good people in that era. And, as we've seen with Michelle, Kurt Browning, and other "sure things," the ice is slippery.

But it's not relevant to say that Rachael would skate circles around Sonja Henie or Dorothy Hamill, anymore than it matters that Don Schollander, a 1964 multiple-gold-medal-winning swimmer, wouldn't have won bronze in the 2008 women's swim events. Time marches on. That's how sport works.

 

[Mathman]

Time marches on. That's how sport works.

You know, I thought of that when I read janetfan's post quoting a newspaper article on Janet Lynn. The reporter was in rapture at how pretty Lynn's blond hair looked while she was skating backward.

I think those times are forever past. You get what you pay for. Now athletes are paid by the piece -- 5.3 for a triple flip, 2.1 for a level three camel spin. OK, there are the program components. But still...

 

[janetfan]

In fact, Dorothy, Linda, and Roz competed against what was then a huge skating power: East Germany. Linda and Roz were beaten by East Germans. Dorothy skated against not one but two current or former World Champions: Dianne de Leeuw of the Netherlands (actually she was an American who was qualified to skate for the Netherlands) and Christine Errath of East Germany (WC in 1973 or 1974, I believe). Dorothy had actually never been World Champion at the time of the Olympics. She became the 1976 WC, I believe. .

Here is an interesting clip from 1976. It shows Dorothy's Worlds SP and then afterwards has Button talking to her and Carlo Fassi.
It was risky that Dorothy competed in Worlds after winning the OGM in '76. She explains why she did it and as fans today know it is rare for OC's to compete at Worlds let alone win them.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r42MTdTTCc

 

[janetfan]

You know, I thought of that when I read janetfan's post quoting a newspaper article on Janet Lynn. The reporter was in rapture at how pretty Lynn's blond hair looked while she was skating backward.

I think those times are forever past. You get what you pay for. Now athletes are paid by the piece -- 5.3 for a triple flip, 2.1 for a level three camel spin. OK, there are the program components. But still...

My feeling is that quote about Janet defines skating from 1970 up until the CoP era.
Have you ever read such a brief comment that better captures the essence of why so many of us love skating?

 

[Mathman]

Public service announcement by Mathman

Janet Lynn was the most influential skater of the second half of the twentieth century (Sonia Henie for the first half.) Virtually singlehandedly Janet made the entire figure skating establishment stop dead in its tracks and take a fresh look at what the essence of the sport is and forever ought to be.

It is impossible to overestimate Janet's influence on succeeding generations of skaters, in particular, Michelle Kwan. Lori Nichol sat Michell down with her library of Janet Lynn tapes and told her, "see, that is what you must aspire to if you are serious about this sport."

I hope that the current and future generations of skaters will be able to continue Janet's legacy despite the requirements of the CoP that seem to tug in the opposite direction.

 

[chloepoco]

You know, I thought of that when I read janetfan's post quoting a newspaper article on Janet Lynn. The reporter was in rapture at how pretty Lynn's blond hair looked while she was skating backward.

I think those times are forever past. You get what you pay for. Now athletes are paid by the piece -- 5.3 for a triple flip, 2.1 for a level three camel spin. OK, there are the program components. But still...

That is a unique way of putting it...and so very true!

 

[R.D.]

Different times, folks. The past is the past. Let's now look to the future, which in honesty is really the heart of this thread.

 

[janetfan]

Different times, folks. The past is the past. Let's now look to the future, which in honesty is really the heart of this thread.

RD, it becomes more difficult to predict the future if one does not understand the past. Believe it or not there was skating before Kimmie Meisner (who I always liked) and as you have noticed it continues on after her.

The long history and tradition of US Ladies Figure skating is worth learning about and acknowledging.
To ignore it, to think it is meaningless leaves a vacuum so vast it makes me sad.

I wrote earlier about creativity and not getting boxed in by a scoring system.
Tell you what - I see that happening from the Japanese Ladies in the past few years.

Mao is a continuation of the Japanese skating tradition. It is older than some of us might think - but no doubt Midori is a big part of it. But there were good Japanese skaters before Midori, going back to the era of Sonja.

And in case you didn't realise this Janet Lynn was a major influence on the Japanese nation and skating culture.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8ZND...eature=related

Since Michelle retired I see more of Janet in Mao Asada than any of today's current skaters.
It is not an accident that Mao feels the 3A is part of a tradition to carry on and neither is her exquiste skating to Debussy and Chopin. Such detailed, at times immaculate attention to body positions and line are not an accident but something that is worked on for countless hours. But it sure helps to have a model. :yes:

Is this important or worth knowing and discussing?
I think it is because the best thing about Golden Skate is how much we can learn here if we keep and open mind. I think if one cares about something they also care about it's history.

If not - to me it feels like something is missing............

 

[R.D.]

RD, it becomes more difficult to predict the future if one does not understand the past.

While that's true- all I see here is reminiscing (sp?) and expression of nostalgia- which is different from actually using what happened in the past (e.g. trends) to speculate about the future. But nevermind that.

Believe it or not there was skating before Kimmie Meisner (who I always liked)...

Of course there was. And there was skating before Kwan...and Lynn, too, for that matter.

...and as you have noticed it continues on after her.

"As I have noticed"...WTH??? Look at my registration date...and yes, I know many people here have been following skating for more years than I have experienced life, but to insinuate that I didn't know skating existed until Meissner came along- I just find that :sheesh: to say the least. First of all I've been following LONG before she even popped up on the scene. Yes, 1996 was the year. Then I took a hiatus and watched Tara Lipinski win the 1998 Olys. Took another hiatus, watched the Salt Lake Games, and then after that the internet allowed me to be much closer and connect with fans. Eight years later, here I am. Of course, my interest has hit high and low points, but the point is, it's always been there.

And why choose Meissner out of everybody to mention? Curious minds, you know.

rest of post

Point taken. IMHO, it's for another thread but I really don't wish to fight this any longer.

 

[miki88]

Without the present, there is no future. Without the past, there is no present.

 

[Mathman]

^ Well then, back to the present...

In discussions of the prospects of U.S. ladies I always feel obliged to stick up for Rachael Flatt because she seems to have become the designated whipping girl on the boards since last year. I do not agree with Janetfan that there was a sinister conspiracy to favor Rachael at Nationals -- what would the USFSA possibly have to gain by that? Tom Zakrajsek cannot be imagined to have more political pull than the dean of U.S. coaches, Frank Carroll!

If Rachael can hit her seven triples, including all of the 3Lz and 3F combos that she is working on, she can continue to be a top threat. Points are points.

 

[fairly4]

this is what i see- if all the us ladies, that means, caroline zhang, rachel flatt, mirai nagasu, ashley wagner skates their best or to their potential they will be a threat to medale and possible win in all the events they skate in. not to mention the up and comers who knows. if they just skate well we will hope for the best.
the other country skaters will try their best lets just hope the us ladies go for it at all the mee
mao is a good skater no doubt, but she is human and might have off days.
in reference to (so called bashing of rachel) she had dorothy hamill as mentor and skates in broadmoor which wanted to bring to prominence again. so let use rachel as the vehicle.
most of the us ladies has to present to program not just skate it.

 

[janetfan]

^ Well then, back to the present...

I do not agree with Janetfan that there was a sinister conspiracy to favor Rachael at Nationals -- what would the USFSA possibly have to gain by that? Tom Zakrajsek cannot be imagined to have more political pull than the dean of U.S. coaches, Frank Carroll!



If Rachael can hit her seven triples, including all of the 3Lz and 3F combos that she is working on, she can continue to be a top threat.

A top threat to who - the champions of Estonia and Turkey
Do you expect fans at GS to actually believe the JSF is plotting on ways to beat Rachael Flatt?

Are you really serious that the best skaters and federations see her as "top threat" ?
Based on what? Vancouver or 2010 Worlds? :think:

Sinister: Suggesting or threatening evil

Obvious: easily seen, recognized, or understood; open to view

The scoring at the 2010 US Ladies Figure Skating Championship could never be seen as sinister.

 

[R.D.]

^ Well then, back to the present...

In discussions of the prospects of U.S. ladies I always feel obliged to stick up for Rachael Flatt because she seems to have become the designated whipping girl on the boards since last year.

I actually agree, and feel the same way. And I would hope that people wouldn't label me as a fan of hers just because I chose to come to her defense once or twice. Just like some posters lately have been doing for a certain other skater (hint: scroll up)

_____________________________________________

Yes, Flatt has been getting a bad rap, but I actually think it seems to have eased a bit. I remember Wagner also got it a little over her ambitious comments to the press just before the Olympics.

I do not agree with Janetfan that there was a sinister conspiracy to favor Rachael at Nationals -- what would the USFSA possibly have to gain by that? Tom Zakrajsek cannot be imagined to have more political pull than the dean of U.S. coaches, Frank Carroll!

Conspiracy? No. Coincidence? Perhaps. She just "happened" to get a good score at SA...and then just "happened" to get a good score again at Nationals. Hmm...?

And lest we forget, this is the same skater who got placed behind a 3-triple program from Czisny despite skating clean.

If Rachael can hit her seven triples, including all of the 3Lz and 3F combos that she is working on, she can continue to be a top threat. Points are points.

Certainly, but will she be less of one? Seems to be turning out that way so far...

 

[Mathman]

I meant a threat to contend for a top spot at U.S. Nationals. But since janetfan mentioned Turkey and Estonia -- Go Tugba, go Elena!

http://www.tugbakarademir.org/

http://www.elenaglebova.com/en/

(Sorry to go off topic again, R.D. )

 

[R.D.]

I meant a threat to contend for a top spot at U.S. Nationals. But since you mentioned Turkey and Estonia -- Go Tugba, go Elena!

http://www.tugbakarademir.org/

http://www.elenaglebova.com/en/

(Sorry to go off topic again, R.D. )

...and there is a thread for that indeed

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...(i.e.-non-US)-Ladies-Speculation-Thread/page4

(but if I may for a sec...some of those shots of Elena in that gallery...wow )