U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

[janetfan]

Here is Michelle's SP from 1998:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMSZI3irY9w

How does it compare with what we saw from USA Ladies at 2010 Natls?

I read some strong arguments for the CoP on another thread.

I have to wonder if this program makes a strong argument for 6.0 ?

I dunno - but something about doing as many elements as beautifully as possibe as opposed to just reaching a level but leaving so much of the beauty behind leaves me cold at times.

In 2010 Rachael showed a more difficult jump layout and Mirai showed magnificent spins.

But who showed such a beautiful lyrical quality and wove the elements together in a seamless tapestry that left us breathless?

Sometimes less is more :yes:

 

[Olympia]

We were spoiled. When you think that people like Sasha Cohen and Angela Nikodinov were looked down on a bit because they weren't good enough to be at the pinnacle of American skating--because good as they were, Kwan was that much better--you realize how spoiled we were. I know that this thread is supposed to speculate and predict, but I'm waiting for someone to capture my imagination so that I want to speculate and predict. Of course I'll support the American team, but at the moment, it's not ringing any bells.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Maybe that's part of the issue, but the crux of it is that we no longer have a world/Olympic gold medal contender, and we almost always have had one in the past.

Why do you think that is?

 

[janetfan]

Why do you think that is?

Is that the million dollar question

Actually that is a very good question and I hope to read some interesting replies.

We should remember that there were grumblings in the past particularly during the 16 years between Dorothy's OGM in '76 and Kristi's OGM in '92.

But in 80, 84 and 88 US Ladies were on the Olympic podium and also won a few (6) WC's.

This feels a little different because we have not had a Lady on the Worlds podium since '06 - when in more typical fashion we had two. And an Olympic Silver medal as well.

So this dry spell from '07 up to the present feels unprecedented.
Are we the new Canadians

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Mon dieu, don't think such horrible thoughts.

 

[R.D.]

We were spoiled. When you think that people like Sasha Cohen and Angela Nikodinov were looked down on a bit because they weren't good enough to be at the pinnacle of American skating--because good as they were, Kwan was that much better--you realize how spoiled we were. I know that this thread is supposed to speculate and predict, but I'm waiting for someone to capture my imagination so that I want to speculate and predict. Of course I'll support the American team, but at the moment, it's not ringing any bells.

I think that it's possible that Cohen never really received the type of support she did in Spokane throughout her entire career. It was only after Kwan had left and there was this huge void in American skating that many fans seemed to want her back.

Why do you think that is?

I hope it's as simple as a dry spell, maybe a transition of sorts and we'll continue to have talent coming up the ranks.

Could be a variety of factors, but I think somewhere along the way we lost our edge...I think maybe girls saw skaters like Lipinski and Hughes win the Olys primarily on technical prowess and figured as long as they learned the jumps (no matter if they did them properly or not), they would have the advantage even if their other skills were average. They didn't count on SLC happening, and the adoption of the Code of points, where everything must be done well. Also, you had really talented skaters from Japan and Korea coming up the ranks who could do the jumps AND do all the other elements well...and in the meantime, for the moment at least, we're stuck in the old 6.0 mentality of "Land the jumps, wear a smile on your face and you're good". Look at our top skaters and I think you'll see a pattern...strong jumpers (nevermind cheats/edge takeoffs for a moment), competent in everything else. What is really hurting our skaters IMHO is DGs and edge calls. That didn't matter 10 years ago when these girls first started out, but now it does. I think once we get a new generation of girls brought up completely under these new rules, we'll be fine.

But it's not just us. The Russians are going through a similar period as well.

 

[Olympia]

There's one aspect to it we haven't considered. Kids don't train themselves. Coaches train kids. It's up to coaches to know what's required of skaters, and if there are still any coaches saying, "Just land the jumps and smile," those coaches should pass the more promising skaters on to another coach.

Michelle was a gem, but she was also in the hands of a master jeweler, Frank Carroll. He made sure she had meticulous jumping and skating technique. (I heard somewhere at the beginning of CoP that footage of Michelle's edging was given to technical coaches as an exemplar. I don't think I made this up.) He took care to keep her footwork and other ankles-down technique at the highest level. And of course he obtained the services of Lori Nichol, who elevated Kwan's routines beyond the realm of the ordinary. Kwan was their greatest muse. They in return (to mix a metaphor) were her Merlins. The three of them certainly deserved one another. Lucky for all of us!

Sasha had an amazing amount of promise. She didn't always hold up under stress, but she did miles better than most other "head-case" skaters: multiple world silver medals, Olympic silver, top-five finish at least all through her senior career. She had John Nicks in her formative years, and as a result she not only skated jumps well enough to land them most of the time, but she had s gorgeous layback position and pointed toes. Dick Button and Peggy Fleming praised her when she was fourteen, and they weren't wrong.

Caroline Zhang was also a gem. Who let her get away with that gosh-awful jump technique? Can you believe that this girl at the age of fourteen would have told a coach, "This is how I skate, and you have to live with it"? I doubt that. A coach should have been telling her what to do. So how did she end up falling down off the precipice after such a promising start? Puberty doesn't begin to explain it. I'm not entirely sure CoP explains it either, because Miki, Mao, and YuNa seem to be doing just fine even with CoP. (And Miki has been around since the days of 6.0.)

We have to look at the skaters coming up, but I think at this point, we may also have to look at the coaching. Thank goodness Mirai is now with Frank, and Alissa seems to have made a promising move. For the rest, I hope the U.S. program cottons to whatever we're not doing enough of and can change as needed.

 

[janetfan]

I think once we get a new generation of girls brought up completely under these new rules, we'll be fine.

.

I think that might be easier said than done. Is it out of the question to wonder if CoP 10 years from now might be quite a bit different? The changes from 2006 to 2010 were considerable and this season there are more changes. I am sure there will be more changes by 2014 and more changes by 2018.

The 3A may go up again - and then may drop. Edge calls and UR penalties will probably continue to change as well (they don't have it right yet imo).

I am not so sure a 7 year old girl training now or her coach can look at the rules for this season as such a reliable blueprint for what to focus on in training leading into the 2018 Olympics. The changes will continue and under CoP it appears the skaters will have to be able to evolve with the changes or suffer the consequences.

 

[R.D.]

^ Another valid point. However, what I don't think will change is the emphasis on doing jumps correctly, and the penalties for doing them incorrectly may be reduced, or changed, but I don't think they'll be eliminated.

 

[PolymerBob]

Caroline Zhang was also a gem. Who let her get away with that gosh-awful jump technique?

The coach who let her get away with it is in China coaching their ladies. So I don't think we'll need to worry about the Chinese for a while.

I figure it's only a matter of time before a U.S. lady steps up and delivers. We just don't know who or when. I suspect it will be more sooner than later.

 

[janetfan]

^ Another valid point. However, what I don't think will change is the emphasis on doing jumps correctly, and the penalties for doing them incorrectly may be reduced, or changed, but I don't think they'll be eliminated.

I don't think the CoP scoring looked the same just going from the Olympics to Worlds even with the same rules.

I don't think the system will remain static and would not be surprised to see mm's same edge rule applied in the future.
Blades has made many suggestions that could be adopted.

A system this intricate is always going to be questioned. Just look at the wide range of disagreements over the way it judges and scores jumps.

As fans leave or if popularity grows rules could be changed. I am not against rules changing but think changing them every year makes it tough on the coaches.

Wasn't Agnes supposed to be working on a 3A last season? Did Tom Z stop it - and would he have continued if he knew the points would be boosted and the penalty lessened?

Rule changes can have very big effects on skaters. Just ask Mao Asada.......

 

[feraina]

The coach who let her get away with it is in China coaching their ladies. So I don't think we'll need to worry about the Chinese for a while.

Except two Chinese girls just won bronzes on the JGP, and they both have big jumps and good speed/edging/flow. I think Caroline got her bad habits under the previous coach, and Mingzhu Li just wasn't ever able to help her correct them. I hope Tammi is able to work on this with her better.

 

[Blades of Passion]

So far Rachael is 0 for 2. She lost to a Jr skater a couple of weeks ago - I think the one who just placed third at a JGP event and then she lost a showdown with Tom Z's new senior skater Agnes last week.

I don't see it as a big deal because she is surely preparing herself for the season and doesn't need to prove much at summer competitions.

Still, we don't normally see supposedly elite top threat senior skaters like the US Champion losing to middle of the road jr skaters. The problem is that Rachael missed jumps at these events. We know Yuna and Mao can miss jumps and still be hard to beat. That is not really the case with Rachael though.

Flatt didn't really miss any jumps at the second event, actually. She did 7 Triples and a Double Axel, and all the other doubles in combination, and still lost to Agnes (who had an easier jump layout). That's a big, big problem and it speaks to the fact that the quality of her jumps is lacking, the quality of all her non-jump elements is lacking, and her overall skating is lacking. Like I've said before, Flatt needs to stop focusing on trying to do something like a 3Lutz-3Loop and start working on every other aspect of her skating. There was nothing at all wrong with her jump layout last year.

 

[janetfan]

Flatt didn't really miss any jumps at the second event, actually. She did 7 Triples and a Double Axel, and all the other doubles in combination, and still lost to Agnes (who had an easier jump layout). That's a big, big problem and it speaks to the fact that the quality of her jumps is lacking, the quality of all her non-jump elements is lacking, and her overall skating is lacking. Like I've said before, Flatt needs to stop focusing on trying to do something like a 3Lutz-3Loop and start working on every other aspect of her skating. There was nothing at all wrong with her jump layout last year.

I agree with your thoughts on this - but Rachael lost to Agnes because she messed up her SP where did did miss jumps. I think Rachael won the LP and lost the SP by a wide margin.

 

[Olympia]

So what you're saying, Blades, is that it seems that quality still counts more than quantity, even in CoP. That's a heartening thought. Though one can certainly be a "Code of Points skater" and milk the code for every last point, there is an ineffable something that needs to be present for someone to excel and be rewarded. It gives me hope for the future of skating, if not for the near future of American ladies' skating.

 

[Mathman]

Though one can certainly be a "Code of Points skater" and milk the code for every last point, there is an ineffable something that needs to be present for someone to excel and be rewarded.

Although, I think the goal of the code of points is turn all those ineffable sometimes into effable somethings -- that is, to eff the ineffable.

Even in categories like Interpretation and Performance, in principle you gain points by satisfying a list of prescibed "bullets."

 

[Blades of Passion]

So what you're saying, Blades, is that it seems that quality still counts more than quantity, even in CoP.

Well, when comparing one "CoP" program to another "CoP" program, sometimes yes. But in terms of skating as a whole...

 

[Mathman]

I have to say, I am not worried about the future of U.S. ladies at all.

First, if a Japanese or a Finish skater can simultaneously touch our hearts and deliver the technical goods, and if she ends up winning a gold medal – what’s so bad about that?

Second, I do not quite see the point in using the reputations of famous skaters of the past to beat up on the current generation. They are doing the best they can. It seems a little weird to rag on about, “You’re not as good as Peggy Fleming, how dare you call yourself U.S. champion!”

And third, we’ve got Mirai, the second best active skater in the world, after Mao. Today, world silver – tomorrow, maybe Mao will break her leg.

 

[Mathman]

in reference to (so called bashing of rachel) she had dorothy hamill as mentor and skates in broadmoor which wanted to bring to prominence again. so let use rachel as the vehicle.

Pardon the consecutive posts, but I wanted to go back and thank fairly4 for this contribution. I don't know whether it is true or not (I hope not), but at least it offers a reason -- however speculative -- why some factions in the USFSA might want to promote Rachael's fortunes at the expense of others'.

I have been racking my brain throughout this discussion trying to come up with any straw to base a conspiracy theory on (I guess I am not imaginative or devious enough).

 

[silverlake22]

I agree with your thoughts on this - but Rachael lost to Agnes because she messed up her SP where did did miss jumps. I think Rachael won the LP and lost the SP by a wide margin.

No, Agnes won the LP too. They both landed 7 triples and Agnes scored 124+ while Rachael scored 117+.