- Joined
- Sep 22, 2010
There is really no one who can challenge a clean Kim. I believe Carolina Kostner comes closest--if she skates clean & Yuna makes a major mistake. Otherwise I don't see another real challenge at Sochi, but ice is slippery and Olympiads play head tricks! Just think Ladies' 1998 (Michelle a shoo-in, but Tara won); 2002 (Michelle again, or Irina, but Sarah with the skate of a lifetime); 2006 (likely Sasha, but Arakawa instead); 2010 (Yuna, & Yuna won!). So, a one in four odds that the favorite will win? Not the best odds. The post-figures era of Figure Skating (with perhaps the current judging system thrown in) really complicates prediction-making in closely contested races. However, barring a Kim injury, or poorly-chosen programs, I don't forsee the 2014 Ladies' FS Olympics event as being closely contested.
From a broader view going way back before the end of figures, it's actually the case that favorites are very likely to win--in particular, it's extremely likely for the reigning world champion to win the Olympics. Michelle Kwan and Irina Slutskaya were the outliers. Michelle really blew it at 2002 SLC Games. (Likewise for Irina in Torino.) Tara was not the biggest favorite but she was nevertheless the reigning World champ. The reigning world champ can be said to be the "judges' favorite" (as opposed to the audience/media), and from this perspective favorites very often win. Of the 20 Olympic champions in ladies figure skating since 1908, only FOUR were not reigning world champs when they won: Anett Potzsch, Dorothy Hamill, Sarah Hughes and Shizuka Arakawa.