Zhang's GPF only if Ando wins NHK / Prediction on Who to Torino

ChrisH said:

It might be disaster. OTOH, that would be perfect for Caroline as long as two of these four ladies also beats Rochette: Kim, Sebestyen, Korpi, Liang. Or Kim wins and Suguri beats Rochette. In those cases both Rochette and Nakano will be ranked below Caroline and she'd be 99% certain to go to the GPF. Rochette doesn't just need to beat Nakano. She needs to outskate Nakano and 9 other ladies.

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And as I said before if Nakano does what she's capable of doing the only two skaters that can beat her are Kim and Rochette.

Nakano is the third highest scoring lady this season, and in the last two season, she hasn't finished off the podium once at a GP event...

ChrisH said:

Recall that in the case that Kostner finishes second at NHK, she still needs at least 165.83 points to win a tie-breaker against Caroline.

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Oh. I thought you were talking about the automatic entry of Zhang to GPF.

BTW, what are the basis of your percentages which are each very particular?

I think a clearer picture is needed for the 'IFs'.

There are 6 places to be filled in the Final.Asasa with 30 and Meissner with 28 have already secured 2 of those places.

(Certain skaters are already out of the standings: Hughes and Wagner.)

So who among the top challengers will fill those 4 places:

Zhang has completed her run of the GPs with a finish of 24 pts.

Ando needs a bronze at NKH to tie Zhang

Rochette needs a silver at COR to tie Zhang

Costner needs a silver at NKH to tie Zhang

Kim needs any medal at COR to surpass Zhang

Nakano needs a bronze at COR to tie Zhang

It will be difficult for skaters like Meier, Sebestyen, to top 3 of the above but they can prevent someone in the running to fall behind.

My own analysis does not go all the way. Mao, Kimmie, YuNa for certain. Miki and Yukari for probability, leaving me with Zhang, Costner and Rochetter for a tie for the last place to be filled.

There will be extra nerves at these last two GPs.

Joe

sorcerer said:

Oh. I thought you were talking about the automatic entry of Zhang to GPF.

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Understood. I could've have said the 6th spot was reserved for Caroline or Kostner, but I just didn't feel like typing in the latter.

BTW, what are the basis of your percentages which are each very particular?

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I'm in complete agreement with what Joesitz posted. (As you know) While it's possible for a skater to fall short of Caroline and still make the finals, it's highly unlikely. So Caroline is the current benchmark. The other ladies need to jump over her to make the finals.

To be more specific about those ties:
* Kim can tie Caroline with a 4th at the CoR and would win the tiebreaker due to having the better medal.
* Ando can tie Caroline with a bronze and 147.80 points at NHK.
* Nakano can tie Caroline with a bronze and 140.26 points at the CoR. While Nakano needs less points than Ando to beat Caroline, she faces a deeper field in Russia than Ando does in Japan. The points will be easy to come by, but not the medal. Nakano has less room for error.
* Rochette can tie Caroline with a silver and 141.51 points at the CoR. Rochette got a slight PCS edge over Nakano at SC. I think that will be largely reversed at CoR. Not only will the audiences be different, I think the judges didn't adjust enough to Nakano reducing her wrap (on her jumps.) I think that Rochette will be just as motivated as she was for SC, though.
* Kostner can tie Caroline with a silver and 165.83 points at NHK. I think that Ando will score at least that many points, so Kostner will need to score at least that many points to beat Caroline (or Ando). Given the greater scrutiny concerning under-rotated jumps and wrong edges, that score is harder to get this year, even for Kostner. However, I just looked at these stats and they do favor Kostner. Still, she recently had a 143.86 performance and does not have a good GP record. I'll bump her odds up a bit and drop the odds of the other ladies down a bit accordingly.
* Meier can tie Caroline with a gold at NHK and would win the tiebreaker due to having the better medal.
* Suguri can tie Caroline with a gold at the CoR and would win the tiebreaker due to having the better medal.
* Sebestyen will fall below Caroline no matter what she does at the CoR. She needs to win and have lots of luck to make it to the finals.
* Everyone else is in a situation worse than Sebestyen.

Caroline's odds were calculated based on the remainder, a process of elimination. Except for Asada and Meissner's chances, they're all guesses of course.

I feel for Suguri. She'll need a great performance to make the GPF. Can she qualify for the Worlds?

Cup of Russia will make everything clearer. after that predictions and calcs will be more accurate.
However, I have the feeling CoR will be Yu-Na, Nakano, Rochette. this would leave the fight Carolina vs Caroline.
It will all depend on what kostner does. She has high scoring potential since she almost never underrotate or take off from wrong edges, plus she gets high pcs. The problem is what CaroK is showing up: the "Euro champion" or "nerves are killing me"... At Nebelhorn she got 173 with a decent short (doubled second jump) and a decent long (only 4 triples and some minus goe). She could easily repeat that, since it's not a good performance. Even allowing for 3-4 points less in Pcs (assuming at Nebelhorn were inflated - while however they are in line with what she always gets - ) her total score with a silver at NHK would be higher than Zhang.

As I said, it all comes down to CaroK. Poor girl: as if she isn't nervous enough usually, she will have to skate with even more pressure in Japan! (knowing that the qualification depends form her)

I wish CoR will have very strage results, taht way it will be even more exciting!!

Not to jinx OO, nor to appear to be guilty of too much schadenfreude
but things are looking kinda good for Caroline right now. Joannie is 10 points behind Yukari, interposed by a fit looking Kiira Korpi & Fumie Suguri. Joannie is quite capable of scoring 91+ on the LP (what she needs to beat Caroline's total), even on an off day. The question is whether she can beat out all three of Yukari (+10), Kiira (+8) & Fumie (+6).

It will come down to the chips falling into place at NHK next week...

feraina said:

So the most promising scenario for Caroline to be in is if:
1) Wagner beats Meier for bronze @ TEB
2) Nakano beats Rochette for silver @ CoR
3) Kostner beats Meier for silver @ NHK

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So 2 of your 3 conditions are fulfilled.

As I wrote, your condition #3 should be reversed to:
3) Meier beats Kostner for silver, Ando gold @ NHK
...which might happen for an automatic GPF entry to Zhang,
but not sure.

For Zhang, the worst scenario now is :
Kostner gold, Ando silver, anyone else bronze @ NHK.

Yes, the best possible scenario for Caroline at NHK is
1. Ando
2. Meier
3. Kostner

And it'd be a bad scenario if either Meier or Kostner wins gold, and Ando gets silver.

I really don't care how, but I need to see Caroline there.

Tinymavy15 said:

I really don't care how, but I need to see Caroline there.

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You got your wish. Caroline Z is going to the GPF. Great news.