- Joined
- Mar 28, 2005
She has no chance IMHO. The next U.S Olympic team will surely be 3 (or 2 depending on results of 2009 Worlds) out of Meissner ,Zhang, Nagasu, Flatt, and Wagner. You could disagree with me but that is how I feel.
Emily Hughes shooting for Vancouver
- Thread starter R.D.
- Start date
- Joined
- Mar 28, 2005
Sarah Hughes was never "counted out". She was what she was, a very consistent and solid skater who gradually worked her way up the ranks to the point she was a consistent contender, but not a favorite, who could certainly medal if she delivered or 1 or 2 others made mistakes. At the Olympics it turned out to be an unusual mass of mistakes from the favorites and she won it all. She was never counted out per say though, people had a pretty accurate accessment were she fit into the grand scheme of things.
The same is true of Emily, but it just isnt nearly as strong a place, and unlike Sarah who gradually worked her way to her peak from age 13 to 16 (so reached her apparent peak at a much younger age then Emily is now), Emily Hughes appears to have already hit her peak about half a year ago, now at 18 going on 19.
- Joined
- Nov 16, 2005
Plus I know Sarah has fllawed technique. She has some light airy jumps. Emily's jumps look wild and heavy. She looks like she fights for every landing.
Sarah Hughes with all her faults (underrotated jumps, egregious flutz, mule kick into the pick jumps, hunched posture) was a very consistent skater who very rarely fell. She won many, many medals at both Junior and Senior international competitions: two JGP silver medals, a JGPF silver medal, Junior World silver; Vienna Cup gold; 1 gold, 4 silver and 2 bronze GP event medals, and two bronze GPF medals; and won World bronze before winning her OGM.
In contrast, Emily never finished high enough at US Nationals at the Junior level to get any international assignments. In the 3 years since she came on the Senior scene, Emily has just 3 international medals: 2005 Junior World bronze, one bronze medal from the 2006-2007 GP, and one silver medal from 2007 4CC. While Emily has good posture and doesn't flutz or have weird jump entrances, she seems to share her sister's tendency to underrotate jumps. Starting in last year's GP, she was underrotating her lutz and flip, and that has not only continued, but gotten worse, as in this year's GP, she got ur calls on her salchow as well.
With her reduced training schedule while in college, it's unlikely that Emily's going to improve her skating and it may deteriorate further. She's probably safe for Worlds 2008, but from 2009 onward she may find it tough to make the World team. Ashley Wagner already has surpassed Emily by winning a medal in her first GP season, and Caroline Zhang has won two GP medals and possibly a spot in the GPF. While it is possible that puberty may affect the currently underage trio of Flatt, Zhang and Nagasu, it is highly unlikely that all three would be wiped out by the puberty bug at the same time.
Unless Emily puts school on hold, IMO she won't be on the US team for Vancouver. But she may be able to make it to the Olympics if she decides to skate for Canada. The USFS can't stop her because she holds dual citizenship.
In contrast, Emily never finished high enough at US Nationals at the Junior level to get any international assignments. In the 3 years since she came on the Senior scene, Emily has just 3 international medals: 2005 Junior World bronze, one bronze medal from the 2006-2007 GP, and one silver medal from 2007 4CC. While Emily has good posture and doesn't flutz or have weird jump entrances, she seems to share her sister's tendency to underrotate jumps. Starting in last year's GP, she was underrotating her lutz and flip, and that has not only continued, but gotten worse, as in this year's GP, she got ur calls on her salchow as well.
With her reduced training schedule while in college, it's unlikely that Emily's going to improve her skating and it may deteriorate further. She's probably safe for Worlds 2008, but from 2009 onward she may find it tough to make the World team. Ashley Wagner already has surpassed Emily by winning a medal in her first GP season, and Caroline Zhang has won two GP medals and possibly a spot in the GPF. While it is possible that puberty may affect the currently underage trio of Flatt, Zhang and Nagasu, it is highly unlikely that all three would be wiped out by the puberty bug at the same time.
Unless Emily puts school on hold, IMO she won't be on the US team for Vancouver. But she may be able to make it to the Olympics if she decides to skate for Canada. The USFS can't stop her because she holds dual citizenship.
- Joined
- Mar 28, 2005
Despite her own issues I expect Joannie to be beating Emily in the coming years more often then not. I also doubt that at Canadian Nationals an import would be placed over a true Canadian unless she were clearly superior which Emily is not.
In the US, Belbin/Agosto were #1 long before Tanith got her citizenship and before that, Lang/Tchernyshev before HE got his citizenship.
I noticed that Weaver/Poje got to go to Worlds 2007 and she isn't a citizen of Canada.
Mr. Hughes is Canadian and his family (Emily's grandparents) has always lived in Canada. Emily and Sarah got their Canadian citizenship by virtue of the fact they have spent summers and vacation time in Canada with their grandparents year after year.
If Emily did happen to outskate Joannie at Canadian Nationals, I can't imagine that Skate Canada would be so unsportsmanlike as to deny the title to a Canadian citizen just because she wasn't born there.
And I am SURE Emily would have no problem outskating Mira Leung.
I noticed that Weaver/Poje got to go to Worlds 2007 and she isn't a citizen of Canada.
Mr. Hughes is Canadian and his family (Emily's grandparents) has always lived in Canada. Emily and Sarah got their Canadian citizenship by virtue of the fact they have spent summers and vacation time in Canada with their grandparents year after year.
If Emily did happen to outskate Joannie at Canadian Nationals, I can't imagine that Skate Canada would be so unsportsmanlike as to deny the title to a Canadian citizen just because she wasn't born there.
And I am SURE Emily would have no problem outskating Mira Leung.
- Joined
- Mar 28, 2005
They were clearly the best and the best hope for the U.S on the international scene anyway, and they didnt suddenly attempt to compete for another country well into their careers (or partnerships). Most of the good U.S dance teams of late have an immigrant anyway (Peter and Naomi, Tanith and Ben, Melissa
and Denis).
No argument there. They are a young team though, #3 dance team for Canada last year was no big deal, it was a crapshoot, and Poje has skated for Canada at the junior level always anyway.
Sure, I doubt she would outskate Joannie at Canadian Nationals though, since as I said I expect Joannie to beat Emily more often then not from this point on though. I think both might even be on the downside of their career, but Emily even moreso. Also if it were close, like it was between them at Four Continents and Worlds last year were Hughes barely beat her, the nod would still go to Joannie IMO. If Emily clearly outskated Joannie she would get the nod, but I think that is unlikely in the years to come.
I agree, but who knows if Canada has a 2nd spot by then or not.
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Emily is nearly 19 and Joannie, nearly 22. I would say that Emily is still more likely than Joannie to overcome her deficiencies, because they are technical in nature, whereas Joannie's are emotional. If Emily took a hiatus from school, she might be able to get back in good fighting trim, while it appears to me that Joannie's skills seem to have peaked and she is reluctant to take a step up.
And if Canada is down to one Ladies spot in 2010, whose fault would that be? Mira has improved enough to be sure of staying out of the bottom 6 going into the FS. So if Canada lost the second spot, it would be because Joannie finished out of the top 10, and pretty close to Mira. Under those circumstances, Canada might want to go with a new shooter.
And if Canada is down to one Ladies spot in 2010, whose fault would that be? Mira has improved enough to be sure of staying out of the bottom 6 going into the FS. So if Canada lost the second spot, it would be because Joannie finished out of the top 10, and pretty close to Mira. Under those circumstances, Canada might want to go with a new shooter.
- Joined
- Mar 28, 2005
Given that Emily was 9th at Worlds last year and Joannie 10th, and that there will likely 2 added U.S women stronger then both by 2009, and other new/improving faces as well by then, it is quite conceivable neither would be top 10 calibre at Worlds by 2009. We will see though.
The US could also be down to two entries as well the way things are going this year...which would further reduce Hughes' chances here in the States. So sounds like she has her work cut out regardless of who she wants to skate for, although it would definitely be easier (although not by much) to go the Canadian route.
But the fact is this: we Americans really need Emily because the other folks aren't of age yet. Imagine a US world team that contained Kimmie, Alyssa and BeBe!! No offense to the two latter skaters but that would be the weakest team we'd send in over a decade and we'd surely be down to 2 entries next year. Even with Hughes that might still happen but she is still much more consistent than either Alyssa or BeBe.
But the fact is this: we Americans really need Emily because the other folks aren't of age yet. Imagine a US world team that contained Kimmie, Alyssa and BeBe!! No offense to the two latter skaters but that would be the weakest team we'd send in over a decade and we'd surely be down to 2 entries next year. Even with Hughes that might still happen but she is still much more consistent than either Alyssa or BeBe.
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- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
Alissa matches her all-time best, 168.32 (good enough for 5th at Worlds last year, ahead of Nakano and Kostner).Bebe hits her all-time best, 159.91 (she would have got 9th at 2007 Wortlds, ahead of Highes and Rochette).
No worry, Ashley Wagner to the rescue! I have real faith in her. She is a steady competitor, hard worker, and she has sound basic technical skills, and constantly improving on both her technical (adding a 3/3 this year) and presentation aspects. She skated cleaner than Emily in the GP series, and now that she has a GP medal, and no longer a totally unknown figure, I think her PCS will also go up to a more reasonable level. I think she has very good chance to outskate Emily at both National's and World's -- if they both get there.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
RD - Did you watch Ashley Wagner on ESPN? She is the back up for Kimmie and no one else. Hope she goes to 4CC and takes on that group.
Joe
Joe
Emily Needs a 3/3
It still would be great to see Emily step up technically this year. Even a triple toe half loop salchow would demonstrate that she is attempting stay stay competitive internationally. Also, Kimmie needs to watch out. Is it me or has she taken out the second triple triple in her long?
It still would be great to see Emily step up technically this year. Even a triple toe half loop salchow would demonstrate that she is attempting stay stay competitive internationally. Also, Kimmie needs to watch out. Is it me or has she taken out the second triple triple in her long?
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
Thanks for posting, Denknny. Welcome to the forum.
As far as I can tell, Kimmie still plans a triple Lutz/triple toe as her second triple-triple. But the problem is, she has not been able to land the Lutz well enough so far to squeak any kind of combination out of it. At both Skate America and Eric Bompard she managed only a solo 3Lutz and then a pop into a solo single Lutz at the end.
Also, the second jump of her 3F/3T has been downgraded in both events.
Kimmie didn't skate that well in the 2005-2006 GP or the 2006-2007 GP, yet she still had a great showing at both Worlds. She is simply not a good early-season skater.
I agree that the US will do fine with Kimmie and Ashley at 2008 Worlds and they'll hold onto the 3 spots for the US.
I agree that the US will do fine with Kimmie and Ashley at 2008 Worlds and they'll hold onto the 3 spots for the US.
:no: I don't get ESPN- I do not have cable. However, I'd appreciate a Youtube link if there is one.
I must say, I can't help but think that people are jumping the gun with this Ashley Wagner. Unproven...plus this will be her first Nationals in seniors, no?
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