U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

dorispulaski · Oct 14, 2010

You missed the triple loop. Granted, it wasn't clean at either Nationals or Worlds. But in 1994, she landed it in combo in the SP. She was so thrilled!

In 1981, her walley wasn't that great, but by 1984, it was much cleaner.

And I am still amazed by the energy of that final jump sequence combination at both Nationals and Worlds!

janetfan · Oct 15, 2010

R.D. said:
I think Wagner is most likely to do the best out of the three of them. Flatt usually gets off to a slow start, and Zhang as we all know is trying to pick herself up after a major slump.

I tried to bring this thread back to the current USA Ladies - but there seems to be as much interest in some of our skaters from the past.

Why is that :think:

I hope we see a "new Caroline" at NHK and I will be glad to overlook some mistakes if she is showing progress.
It will be interesting and hope Caroline surprises us.
Go Caroline!

PolymerBob · Oct 15, 2010

I'm not sure it was a good idea to put Rachael and Caroline in two GP events together. It makes it very difficult for both of them to make the Final. One will most likely eliminate the other.

janetfan · Oct 15, 2010

PolymerBob said:
I'm not sure it was a good idea to put Rachael and Caroline in two GP events together. It makes it very difficult for both of them to make the Final. One will most likely eliminate the other.

Don't forget Ashley is at NHK and I would not be surprised at all if she finishes ahead of Rachael and Caroline.

FlattFan · Oct 15, 2010

janetfan said:
Don't forget Ashley is at NHK and I would not be surprised at all if she finishes ahead of Rachael and Caroline.

Ashley has NEVER finished ahead of Rachael. Not going to happen. She was very lucky last year to advance to the final. I don't think she will luck out again.

janetfan · Oct 15, 2010

FlattFan said:
Ashley has NEVER finished ahead of Rachael. Not going to happen. She was very lucky last year to advance to the final. I don't think she will luck out again.

Ashley made the GPF and Rachael did not. I don't know how much luck was involved other than the normal amount of the luck we see every year at the GP series. Rachael had a very easy assignment at SA but she still had to skate well enough to finish second there. Had she skated better at COC then Rachael might have gotten "lucky" like Ashley did and made the final.

Mathman · Oct 15, 2010

Ashley could easily finish ahead of both Rachael and Caroline in the first Grand Prix event. On the other hand, with Mao Asada, Kiira Korpi and the unpredictable Carolina Kostner in the mix, the U.S. ladies might be shut out of podium spots altogether.

Alissa has the best shot to spring out of the gate early. She could conceivably win the gold at Skate Canada against a relatively undistinguished field (but watch out for Cynthia Phaneuf on home turf.)

Polymer Bob raises the annual question of what is the best strategy for federations like USFS to give as many skaters as possible a chance to make the finals. The skaters are "invited" by the host country, rather than "placed" by their home federation. Still, we presume that there is a certain amount of bargaining and favor-mongering in selecting the roster.

Mao does not have to compete either Miki or Akiko in either of her two events.

Layfan · Oct 15, 2010

Ashley could easily finish ahead of both Rachael and Caroline in the first Grand Prix event. On the other hand, with Mao Asada, Kiira Korpi and the unpredictable Carolina Kostner in the mix, the U.S. ladies might be shut out of podium spots altogether.

Alissa has the best shot to spring out of the gate early. She could conceivably win the gold at Skate Canada against a relatively undistinguished field (but watch out for Cynthia Phaneuf on home turf.)

Polymer Bob raises the annual question of what is the best strategy for federations like USFS to give as many skaters as possible a chance to make the finals. The skaters are "invited" by the host country, rather than "placed" by their home federation. Still, we presume that there is a certain amount of bargaining and favor-mongering in selecting the roster.

Mao does not have to compete either Miki or Akiko in either of her two events.

:yes: Alissa will be the favorite at skate Canada. Unfortunately, that never seems to be a good position for her to be in... hopefully she'll handle the pressure. Then she'll have a much tougher assignment in Paris, facing Mao and Mirai and others who can't be dismissed like Phaneuf and Hecken.

Still, it's hardly inconceivable that Alissa could medal at both her events and be the only U.S. lady to advance to the final :eek:

Really, the only thing working against her at the GP this year is ... herself.

I'm curious to see if Alissa makes any progress under Yuka Sato or if she's pretty much peaked.

Go Alissa!!!!!

FlattFan · Oct 15, 2010

janetfan said:
Ashley made the GPF and Rachael did not. I don't know how much luck was involved other than the normal amount of the luck we see every year at the GP series. Rachael had a very easy assignment at SA but she still had to skate well enough to finish second there. Had she skated better at COC then Rachael might have gotten "lucky" like Ashley did and made the final.

Head to head competition. What made you think Ashley would place higher than Rachael at the NHK this year?
Ashley's scores for both events were about 15-20 points lower than Rachael's at SA, and roughly the same as Rachael's in China. Had she skated better at COC, then she would have gone to the GPF, and no one would say she's lucky because she had the results to back it up.

R.D. · Oct 15, 2010

Layfan said:
:yes: Alissa will be the favorite at skate Canada. Unfortunately, that never seems to be a good position for her to be in... hopefully she'll handle the pressure. Then she'll have a much tougher assignment in Paris, facing Mao and Mirai and others who can't be dismissed like Phaneuf and Hecken.

Still, it's hardly inconceivable that Alissa could medal at both her events and be the only U.S. lady to advance to the final

Really, the only thing working against her at the GP this year is ... herself.

I'm curious to see if Alissa makes any progress under Yuka Sato or if she's pretty much peaked.

Go Alissa!!!!!

Fanboys(girls)

Anyway- I think she has peaked. She'll be on and off as usual, a sort of Caro Kostner Lite if you will- but as far as really shaking things up on the national scene, I think she'll be a non-factor. On the GP, now, if she skates well and lucks out, she COULD conceivably get into the final- where she will be doomed, of course.

Mathman · Oct 15, 2010

R.D. said:
Fanboys(girls)

We'll see who has the last laugh.

Who is going to beat the lovely and talented Alissa from this list (Skate Canada)?

LaCoste
Phaneuf
Samson
Marchei
Imai
Suguri
Makarova
Lafluente
Meier
Gilles
Zawasski

(Don't get me wrong, they're all lovely and talented... :yes: )

FlattFan · Oct 15, 2010

^ Agnes Zawasski landed 7 triples LP and scored 124+.

R.D. · Oct 15, 2010

I was directing that comment to the last line of that post...aha!

(emphasis added)

ImaginaryPogue · Oct 15, 2010

FlattFan said:
Head to head competition. What made you think Ashley would place higher than Rachael at the NHK this year?
Ashley's scores for both events were about 15-20 points lower than Rachael's at SA, and roughly the same as Rachael's in China. Had she skated better at COC, then she would have gone to the GPF, and no one would say she's lucky because she had the results to back it up.

I wonder about Flatt's dedication, truth be told. I don't think Wagner's beating her this year, and I'm a little surprised at the number of people who are convinced the Worlds team will be Nagasu and Wagner. But when you have one skater who's mentality is for the long haul vs one who has options and is clearly considering one of then very seriously... well, I don't think it's that farfetched.

SamuraiKike · Oct 16, 2010

Mathman said:
We'll see who has the last laugh. Who is going to beat the lovely and talented Alissa from this list (Skate Canada)?

LaCoste
Phaneuf
Samson
Marchei
Imai
Suguri
Makarova
Lafluente
Meier
Gilles
Zawasski

(Don't get me wrong, they're all lovely and talented... :yes: )

Well Czisny does have the highest average international score from last season out of those ladies but Phaneuf and Makarova had personal bests 14 and 6 points higher than Alissa respectively, so I wouldnt exactly call her the top favorite going into Skate Canada. Plus Cynthia has home advantange and Zawadski is capable of crashing them all in the LP.

janetfan · Oct 16, 2010

FlattFan said:
Head to head competition. What made you think Ashley would place higher than Rachael at the NHK this year?
Ashley's scores for both events were about 15-20 points lower than Rachael's at SA, and roughly the same as Rachael's in China. Had she skated better at COC, then she would have gone to the GPF, and no one would say she's lucky because she had the results to back it up.

You are basing everything on last year. This is a new season. Flatt has not exactly impressed with her new programs and did not skate that well at her two summer competitions. I am sure she will be in better shape for NHK and see her with a strong chance to medal if she skates well.

If Ashley skates well I see her with a chance to medal as well. Not sure about Caroline but hope they all do their best.

bigsisjiejie · Oct 16, 2010

I'm a bit concerned about Ashley Wagner and the last 2 months of training...or not. Between illness, practicing some show programs for ATS LA show, and Vlogging, I'm wondering exactly how much quality time has been spent on getting competitive programs in shape.

Guess we're about to find out.

R.D. · Oct 16, 2010

bigsisjiejie said:
I'm a bit concerned about Ashley Wagner and the last 2 months of training...or not. Between illness, practicing some show programs for ATS LA show, and Vlogging, I'm wondering exactly how much quality time has been spent on getting competitive programs in shape. Guess we're about to find out.

Even if she bombs NHK, it's hardly time to push the panic button IMHO. Remember Mao Asada last year? Who would have thought after COR that she would be the Olympic Silver Medalist?

janetfan · Oct 16, 2010

R.D. said:
Even if she bombs NHK, it's hardly time to push the panic button IMHO. Remember Mao Asada last year? Who would have thought after COR that she would be the Olympic Silver Medalist?

International fans have to remember that if Ashley bombs or does well in the GP it means very little when it comes to making the US Natl Team and skating at Worlds.

Her fate - like the other USA Ladies will be determined at Natls - and not the GP.

R.D. · Oct 16, 2010

janetfan said:
International fans have to remember that if Ashley bombs or does well in the GP it means very little when it comes to making the US Natl Team and skating at Worlds.

Her fate - like the other USA Ladies will be determined at Natls - and not the GP.

Fans are quick to freak out whenever their favorite doesn't start off the season well, often forgetting that they really don't need to have it all together until December/January. All I have to say is CALM DOWN PEOPLE

U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl

janetfan

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PolymerBob

janetfan

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FlattFan

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janetfan

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Mathman

Layfan

FlattFan

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R.D.

Mathman

FlattFan

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R.D.

ImaginaryPogue

SamuraiKike

janetfan

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bigsisjiejie

R.D.

janetfan

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R.D.

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