U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

[janetfan]

One strange thing is that since 2004, winning the U.S. championship has been the kiss of death at Worlds. Only once from 2004 to 2010 was the U.S. champion the highest-placed U.S. skater at the World Championship.

2004 Michelle 4th at Worlds, Sasha 2nd.
2005 Michelle 3rd, Sasha 2nd.
2006 Sasha 3rd, Kimmie 1st.
2007 Kimmie barely nipped Emily Hughes for the U.S. title, finished 4th Worlds, Emily 9th..
2008 Mirai -- too young for Worlds; Kimmie 7th.
2009 Alissa 11th, Rachael 5th
2010 Rachael 9th, Mirai 7th.

It happened at the 1998 Olympics with Tara, and 2002 with Sarah and 2010 with Mirai. Only Sasha managed to place highest at Natls and the Olympics in 2006 in recent years.

ETA - what about in the mid to late 80's into the early 90's - didn't Debi, Jill, Caryn and Krisit take turns beating each other at Natls and Worlds?

 

[Layfan]

I believe Kwan was 3rd in 2004, 4th in 2005.

But yes, it's an interesting trend. And notice ever since Cop took effect, it's been like that...

Interesting point about COP but I think the rise of the Asian skaters have more do with it than anything else. They are just so good and it's not just the Americans who have had trouble keeping up, the European ladies too. Yuna, Mao and Shizuka - they are all the full package in a way that figure skating rarely sees. They are brilliant jumpers but also have artistry.

I don't think Michelle's 3rd place finish or Sasha's 3rd place finish or even Kimmie's fourth place finish in 2007 is comparable to the low placements we have seen most recently though. American fans would have been thrilled to see Alissa or Rachael or Mirai or get a bronze or silver medal.
Also, it's hard to talk about the national championship being the kiss of death recently because the national champion before that was Michelle for so long. She didn't always follow up with a world medal gold but often did. What if Sarah or Sasha had become the national champion one of those years? We will never know.

If COP does have to do with, interesting that Sasha has been our most successful COP skater at the international level. I have a feeling Kimmie would have done well under COP too if her body changes hadn't been so detrimental. But if we were still under 6.0 would Rachael or Alissa or Mirai have done better at worlds? I doubt it. It would still be hard for them to hope with for a gold or silver medal with Yuna and Mao around... Those two have taken skating to a new level and USA girls are not there --- Yet.

 

[R.D.]

If COP does have to do with, interesting that Sasha has been our most successful COP skater at the international level.

But it's not surprising. The judges obviously saw things in her- she knew how to work the (early) system, that's for sure. And as for wiggle room, she had plenty of it. For someone who was never able to skate a clean FS, she did rather well.

Every year since then the National champ has failed to be the top American at worlds, as MM pointed out. I'm not sure if it comes down to differences in judging (we all know how wacky National judging can be at times) or additional pressure from being the champ, etc. And I think this is happening in the men's event as well, but I know less about that.

 

[Layfan]

Peggy, Janet, Dorothy and Linda ruled Natls and were the best international performers in their day.
I am not so sure if after Linda retired, that we haven't seen some of this trend mm pointed out.

Not so sure how Elaine, Roz and Tiffany did from Natls to Worlds/Olympics or the others I mentioned in the previous post.

I dunno. Kristi, Nancy, Michelle, Tara, Sarah, Sasha, Kimmie. We've had an awful lot of Olympic gold and silver and bronze medalists in the past two decades. And in that time period there have been three Olympics that the U.S. has had two ladies on the podium. Honestly, I think in the 90s and much of 00s the USA was the formidable country in ladies skating. And then it wasn't. The current slump came suddenly and it has been rather prolonged. But I don't think it will last. I am hopeful that in the next Olympic one or two of our ladies will be medal favorites.

 

[janetfan]

I dunno. Kristi, Nancy, Michelle, Tara, Sarah, Sasha, Kimmie. We've had an awful lot of Olympic gold and silver and bronze medalists in the past two decades. And in that time period there have been three Olympics that the U.S. has had two ladies on the podium. Honestly, I think in the 90s and much of 00s the USA was the formidable country in ladies skating. And then it wasn't. The current slump came suddenly and it has been rather prolonged. But I don't think it will last. I am hopeful that in the next Olympic one or two of our ladies will be medal favorites.

My point was based around mathman's,,,,

Look at the 80's - before CoP and the Ladies podiums were a jumble. Before that the best USA Lady typically had a "reign" of sorts where she was our best domestic and Intl skater and for several years. The USA ladies won lots of of Olympic and Worlds medals in the 80's. Maybe after Linda there really wasn't a dominant skater like we had seen before until Michelle came along.

 

[MikiAndoFan#1]

*ruh roh*

What does "ruh roh" mean?

:

 

[janetfan]

What does "ruh roh" mean?

:

I don't know either. I think it means he has no opinion......

 

[MikiAndoFan#1]

I don't know either. I think it means he has no opinion......

 

[R.D.]

What does "ruh roh" mean?

:

it's based on the cartoon Scooby Doo- shorthand talk for "uh oh".

I would post the urban dictionary link but it has language that might be offensive to some here.

 

[aftertherain]

What does "ruh roh" mean?

:

Scooby Dooby DOOOOOO!

Oh c'mon guys. You can't pull "not my generation" on this one! (But you can pull the "I'm not American" argument. Haha.)

:disapp:

The "random American girl" happens to be the 2009 U.S. National champion, the best spinner in the World, a fabulous skater and a gorgeous young lady.

*coughLucindaRuhcoughcoughStephaneLambielcough*

She is very pretty though. Very nice wide smile.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Yep. In 1990 and 1991, the US took five of the six spots on the podium. The impressive thing? These were FIVE SEPARATE LADIES (Trenary, Cook, Yamaguchi, Kerrigan, Harding). I think the current breadth of figure skating means that that level of achievement is unlikely to happen again, but I don't think this slump (which lets be realistic, has been a four year run without a medal. I took Japan nearly a decade to go from Ito and Sato to Suguri/Arakawa, Manley to Rochette was beyond two decades, and some countries: Austria, Germany - never returned) will last forever either.

 

[MikiAndoFan#1]

*coughLucindaRuhcoughcoughStephaneLambielcough*

I didn't forget them. I consider Alissa the best female spinner in the World that is still competing.

 

[janetfan]

I didn't forget them. I consider Alissa the best female spinner in the World that is still competing.

Lambiel might still be the best among the Men - retired or not.

 

[silverlake22]

And who place higher in the LP ?
Who scored better on spins and spirals?

SilverLake - you act like figure skating is no different than barrell jumping when you answer that way.

As I said I enjoy Alissa's skating and despite all of the grumbling and bombing her SP she didn't do much worse at '09 Worlds than our 2010 champion did at Worlds.

Laura won bronze last season at Worlds which does not add much credence to the point you raised.

You can't compare Alissa to Laura though. If Alissa was from Europe or even Canada it would be different, she likely would have tons of national titles/medals and European medals to her name and that would boost her international reputation and give her higher PCS. But because she lives in the US, she is just another American girl, and only has 1 controversial US title and 1 US bronze medal to her name. She never puts 2 programs together, she went to Worlds twice and failed to make the top 10 both times despite being talented enough to place top 5 both times. She's qualified for the GPF once and finished last. Most of the time she doesn't even place that well at nationals, does this girl really deserve to get the marks Lepisto does? Keep in mind Laura has won gold or silver at the past 4 Finnish nationals - was the champion in 2008 and 2010, has medaled at Europeans for the past 3 years - winning the title in 2009, has placed in the top 10 at Worlds for the past 3 years and won bronze there this past spring. Alissa's competitive history is nowhere near as impressive and thus, she remains a tier 2 skater internationally.

Re Worlds. Alissa's FS at the 2009 Worlds was one of her best skates of the season, and that was a 3 ratified triple FS earning her 106 points. Rachael's FS at 2010 Worlds was one of her worst skates of the season, but she managed to rotate 4-5 triples and match Alissa's score from last year. Rachael isn't my favorite skater but when she skates well, which she usually does, she can score near 120 points for the FS - Alissa has yet to prove that she can do the same. Her PB score for the FS is 109 and she earned that 5 years ago before the judges got strict on URs. I know she may not be *as* inconsistent as someone like Kostner or Verner, but they at least have a more impressive competitive history consisting of many national titles, multiple Europeans medals and trips to the GPF, high finishes at Worlds and for Carolina 3 World medals.

 

[R.D.]

Czisny at her best more than likely would not have done better than 8th at 2009 worlds.

Like Kostner, you really don't know what to expect from her. Good Alyssa or bad Alyssa? Even "good" Alyssa flubs up maybe once or so.

 

[janetfan]

You can't compare Alissa to Laura though. If Alissa was from Europe or even Canada it would be different, she likely would have tons of national titles/medals and European medals to her name and that would boost her international reputation and give her higher PCS. But because she lives in the US, she is just another American girl, and only has 1 controversial US title and 1 US bronze medal to her name. She never puts 2 programs together, she went to Worlds twice and failed to make the top 10 both times despite being talented enough to place top 5 both times. She's qualified for the GPF once and finished last. Most of the time she doesn't even place that well at nationals, does this girl really deserve to get the marks Lepisto does? Keep in mind Laura has won gold or silver at the past 4 Finnish nationals - was the champion in 2008 and 2010, has medaled at Europeans for the past 3 years - winning the title in 2009, has placed in the top 10 at Worlds for the past 3 years and won bronze there this past spring. Alissa's competitive history is nowhere near as impressive and thus, she remains a tier 2 skater internationally.

Re Worlds. Alissa's FS at the 2009 Worlds was one of her best skates of the season, and that was a 3 ratified triple FS earning her 106 points. Rachael's FS at 2010 Worlds was one of her worst skates of the season, but she managed to rotate 4-5 triples and match Alissa's score from last year. Rachael isn't my favorite skater but when she skates well, which she usually does, she can score near 120 points for the FS - Alissa has yet to prove that she can do the same. Her PB score for the FS is 109 and she earned that 5 years ago before the judges got strict on URs. I know she may not be *as* inconsistent as someone like Kostner or Verner, but they at least have a more impressive competitive history consisting of many national titles, multiple Europeans medals and trips to the GPF, high finishes at Worlds and for Carolina 3 World medals.

You took all that time to say if Alissa was European she would have more titles and medals - and then say because she is American her record is not comparable :think:

Watching Laura and Aliss'a LP at '09 Worlds there was little to choose from. I think Laura completed one more triple and their LP score was pretty close. They skate differently but both are very stylish which to me sets them apart from other skaters who rely more on jumps and less on artistry.

ETA: It looks to me like Carolina K has two Worlds medals and not the three you keep claiming.
I might add both of Caro's Worlds medals were somewhat disputed.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

I really think if Czisny flubs Skate Canada, she should probably retire after this season.

 

[janetfan]

I really think if Czisny flubs Skate Canada, she should probably retire after this season.

Maybe she will and maybe she might want to continue.
When did Skate Canada ever become so important that skaters base career decisions on their results there? I would think Alissa will consider her results at Natls as being way more important than any GP event.

I hear this talk that Fumie must go and Alissa has to do well at one event or should retire....

I think skaters should decide based on results of a full season, how they feel healthwise, and if they still have a desire to compete. But not over the results of one GP event.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Not so much that. If, based on your ability, you should be the clear winner and you don't do well, you should really reconsider the reason you're competing and what you hope to get out of it. It has nothing to do with Skate Canada and everything to do a competition itself. For example, if 2010 Plushenko/Takahashi/Chan was to go skate at World Juniors and lose, I'd suggest the same thing. Keep in mind that I'm predicting a GREAT year for Czisny, so I think this is a moot point.

Nationals is a lot more competitive than Skate Canada from what I can tell.

Obviously, skaters know what they should do, want to do, and will do moreso than any fan/non-fan posting on an internet board.

 

[Mathman]

You can't compare Alissa to Laura though. If Alissa was from Europe or even Canada it would be different, she likely would have tons of national titles/medals and European medals to her name and that would boost her international reputation and give her higher PCS. But because she lives in the US, she is just another American girl, and only has 1 controversial US title and 1 US bronze medal to her name. She never puts 2 programs together, she went to Worlds twice and failed to make the top 10 both times despite being talented enough to place top 5 both times. She's qualified for the GPF once and finished last. Most of the time she doesn't even place that well at nationals, does this girl really deserve to get the marks Lepisto does? Keep in mind Laura has won gold or silver at the past 4 Finnish nationals - was the champion in 2008 and 2010, has medaled at Europeans for the past 3 years - winning the title in 2009, has placed in the top 10 at Worlds for the past 3 years and won bronze there this past spring. Alissa's competitive history is nowhere near as impressive and thus, she remains a tier 2 skater internationally...

This argument seems backwards. You seem to be saying that Laura deserves to receive higher marks than Alissa because in the past Laura won a bunch a stuff.

Shouldn't it be the other way around? Laura won a bunch of stuff because the quality of her skating deserves high marks?