The Leading Ladies at the forthcoming US Nationals

My thoughts:

Rachael, Ashley, and Alissa have all been on the international scene for awhile now and have yet to make a big breakthrough, or well I guess Rachael's 5th at the 09 Worlds was pretty impressive, but anyways, I think they have all peaked already and won't be a factor come 2014. Rachael will be in college and will likely either have given up skating or dropped down the intensity a lot, Alissa will either be retired or if she isn't she will be 26 and almost definitely past her prime, and likely still inconsistent. With Ashley it's harder to tell, she's still young enough that come 2014 at age 22 she could still be skating well, and she has also made improvements recently that suggest perhaps she isn't past her prime. That being said, she does have a history of running hot and cold in competitions, which is a bit concerning.

Mirai has proven to be the top US lady internationally and has shown she can be a medal threat and keep up with the big names when she skates well. I think the USFSA will want her on the Worlds team this season so she can gain more recognition and experience and also because she is the best shot at a medal. She also has a good shot at making the Olympic Team in Sochi if she can keep up the good work, she's still so young.

Gao and Zawadzki are newcomers, but both have the potential to be international medal threats in the future. Further, they will be 19 and 20 come Sochi and will therefore be prime candidates. While Alissa, Rachael, and Ashley all have big flaws which prevent them from being in the top echelon of skaters internationally (Alissa - nerves/inconsistency, low jumps, URs Rachael - poor spins, lowish PCS, low jumps, URs Ashley - inconsistency, chronic flutzing/2footing, URs), Christina and Agnes both have decent flexibility, big jumps which are usually rotated, ideal body types, and seemingly good competition nerves/consistency thus far (or Agnes did until this season). I'd have Christina heavy edge for now because she has been more consistent this season, but Agnes at her best could probably outscore Christina due to the strength of her spins, PCS for both I assume would be comparable at nationals. I think the USFSA recognizes these two girls are likely the future of US figure skating and big hopes for Sochi, and will want to name one of them (whoever skates better at nationals) to the World Team so they can start building up a good international reputation, so long as they skate well enough at nationals to earn the Worlds berth.

So basically I think the Worlds Team will be Mirai and Christina/Agnes (my money is on Christina but who knows what will happen), unless Christina and/or Agnes don't skate well at nats, in which case one of Rachael/Ashley/Alissa (whoever skates the best at nationals) will be named to the team with Mirai.

Basically I don't think we'll be seeing any holding up of Rachael, Alissa, or Ashley because if Christina or Agnes skates well I think they will make a very good impression on the judges and will make a convincing case for being sent to Worlds. Last season I think Christina's marks were held down because the USFSA didn't want to have to name her to the team when she was so young and a bunch of other ladies had waited a long time to try and make the Olympic team, but this year I don't think that will happen. I mean, for example, Alissa is lovely but if she skates a 4 triple LP with her usual mistakes, low jumps and lipping and then Christina knocks it out of the park and lands 7 rotated triples in her FS and does the 3f-3t and 2a-3t combo, it makes more sense to send Christina because even though her PCS will be lower and her spins aren't the best, the USFS can count on her to put up a strong TES score that should lend itself to a good placement at Worlds, whereas Alissa potentially COULD medal at Worlds but could also end up in 12th or lower.

Joesitz said:

Now you're talking.

I was hoping to see the fans' pairing of two skaters here, but the hold of the National's competition is for most, the best way to decide selection for Worlds. Even a preference for two personal picks is out of the question.

The top international skaters at Worlds will be: Mao Asada (not sure); Miki Ando; Kanako Murakami; Akiko Suzuki. also Yuna Kim, Kira Korpi, Laura Lepisto, Ksena Makarova, and Carolina Kostner. That makes eight plus 2 unknown Americans. Can the two unknowns squeeze in with their placements totalling 13?

(if 6 of those internationals hold the top 6 places, it will be tough for the unknowns.)

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Honestly, I think a lot of the girls could get the spots back if they skate well. Mirai and Rachael certainly can - they didn't last year but they proved they more than had it in them at the Olympics. If we send Mirai and Alissa and they skate well - no problem. I think Ashley could finish top 10 if she skates well at worlds, too. I'm curious to see Christina and Agnes at nationals, especially Christina. I don't see why she can't make top 10 at worlds if she skates well.

So, who is most likely to skate well at worlds? Well, who knows? Rachael may be the most consistent but she didn't do that well at last year's worlds... So I just think it is too tricky to play that guessing game ... But as for the skaters who have it in them - I think several of them do.

Now. Who among our ladies have the best shot at winning a world medal if they are at their best? I say Mirai and Alissa A clean Mirai and Alissa seem to post the biggest scores internationally. However, I think Rachael also has very good shot as one of the few ladies doing all the five triples.

Not surprisingly - these three are our last three champions. I think there's a reason...

silverlake22 said:

My So basically I think the Worlds Team will be Mirai and Christina/Agnes (my money is on Christina but who knows what will happen), unless Christina and/or Agnes don't skate well at nats, in which case one of Rachael/Ashley/Alissa (whoever skates the best at nationals) will be named to the team with Mirai.

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What do you think will happen if Mirai skates badly at Nationals? Will the USFSA hold her up in first or second place anyway?

Or will they give her the placement she earns, and then put her on the Worlds team regardless?

Thanks Silverlake for eloquently expressing my thoughts. And I do think it's worth sending a break out youngster, if they earn it by placing 1st or 2nd, even it potentially risks 3 spots for 2012. To the above point, as a Mirai supporter, I just hope she skates well and if she doesn't I'm fine with her missing Worlds. If she places 3rd with questionable judging I'll be sad but that the way the ice slides sometimes.

Its kind of interesting to have a Ladies competition where we aren't exactly sure what will happen with five or six skaters having the ability to change the game... I'm ready for the next generation of skaters to take over and force the issue with those who've been hovering around the top nationally but haven't been able to put it together on the big stage. If the US has no choice but to send not quite ready for primetime skaters to Worlds with the expectation that we probably won't get three spots - then I'm all about sending those with potential vs. those who can't keep it together. Mirai is the best shot but her teenage angst is getting old. Just go skate Mirai. Please, pretty please with a cherry on top? Just skate - that's all we ask. Alissa is a dear, sweet young woman, but she hasn't gotten it done. Ashley and Rachael deserve their shot but they too can be frustrating. I don't even know what to think, feel or say about Caroline... If the newbies need experience and the big guns can't get it done - well maybe its time to re-evaluate the game that is the Nationals...

^ Are you saying that the judges at Nationals should give low scores to the old skaters that haven't got it done at Worlds, and give high scores to the promising up-and-comers?

Or are you saying that the USFSA should send the promising youngsters to Worlds regardless of the results at Nationals?

Mathman said:

What do you think will happen if Mirai skates badly at Nationals? Will the USFSA hold her up in first or second place anyway?

Or will they give her the placement she earns, and then put her on the Worlds team regardless?

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Here's what I think, Mirai can't afford to bomb, because there are a LOT of strong ladies competing at nationals this year. That being said I think she can get away with making a few mistakes, having just two good performances, or a great SP and decent FS, and still make the team due to PCS and her great spins. I think the judges might hold Mirai up a little bit, not excessively, but a little if she makes a few mistakes at nationals. I think in earlier years Czisny would be in the same situation but where she's so inconsistent and has skated a clean FS so few times in her career, and has bombed at Worlds both times she's gone, and is now probably past her peak and will likely be a non-factor come Sochi, she won't get held up and will have to really skate well to be on the World Team this year. I think the only way a pretty good Mirai would NOT be on the World Team this year is:

1.) If one of Christina or Agnes AND one of Ashley/Alissa/Rachael skates 2 clean, great programs - in that situation the team would be made up of the 2 girls who skate really well. This situation seems fairly plausible.

OR

2.) If by chance 2 of Ashley/Alissa/Rachael skate 2 clean, great programs then even if Gao and Zawadzki are clean, and Mirai is pretty good, the World Team will consist of the 2 of Ashley/Alissa/Rachael who skate clean (PCS would give them the edge over the newcomers). This situation though, IMO, seems pretty unlikely.

So basically Mirai has the best shot at making the team and probably only has to be good at nationals to make the team, whereas the others probably have to be great at nationals to make the team. But it's still by no means a garauntee Mirai makes the team, I just think she's the person the USFSA most WANTS to be on the team.

^ This discussion is starting to depress me. If the National championship is decided by who gets held up unfairly and who doesn't, and by who the USFSA wants to send somewhere, then it will lose its interest as a competition.

Why can't they just hold the competition and judge it fairly to the best of the judges' abiltities, letting the chips fall as they may?

Is that just hopelessly naive?

Mathman said:

^ Are you saying that the judges at Nationals should give low scores to the old skaters that haven't got it done at Worlds, and give high scores to the promising up-and-comers?

Or are you saying that the USFSA should send the promising youngsters to Worlds regardless of the results at Nationals?

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Newcomers have to earn it, but if they do I tend to think they would be sent to Worlds just to see what placements they can earn if they skate well there. I mean, look at Mirai at the Olympics, most people probably didn't predict she would come in 4th there or win the SP at Worlds, but when she did, most people weren't surprised either. The other thing to consider is that say Gao goes to Worlds and places say 9th, to me that looks better than sending Czisny, Flatt, or Wanger to Worlds and having one of them place 9th, because it means Christina who is still very young and has some growing up to do and needs more polish can be in the top 10 at Worlds as a 17 year old new to the scene - she'll be noticed as "one to watch" just as Ksenia and Mirai were last season with their good results at senior international events. Conversely, if Flatt, Czisny, or Wagner goes and earns a similar placement, it will look ok, but as long as they skate pretty well there it means we can't really expect much better of them.

So if you look at last year's results at Worlds, with 7th and 9th place finishes we didn't get 3 spots back, but say the same thing happened this season at Worlds. If Christina and Agnes were the ones to finish in 7th and 9th, we wouldn't get 3 spots back but it would still be impressive and serve to put their names on the map, but if say Rachael and Ashley or Alissa were the ones to finish 7th and 9th, it wouldn't seem very impressive and people would be upset we didn't get 3 spots back. With Mirai on the team it would be in-between, Mirai's still young enough that we can expect her to improve in the future, but not so new to the senior scene that a placement in the mid to lower top 10 would seem as impressive as it would if earned by Gao or Zawadzki.

Mathman said:

^ This discussion is starting to depress me. If the National championship is decided by who gets held up unfairly and who doesn't, and by who the USFSA wants to send somewhere, then it will lose its interest as a competition.

Why can't they just hold the competition and judge it fairly to the best of the judges' abiltities, letting the chips fall as they may?

Is that just hopelessly naive?

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But you see in the case of Mirai I don't think she would be held up unfairly because:

- Her PCS are usually higher than Gao and Zawadzki, and Rachael and Ashley for that matter
- Her spins are just as good as Alissa and better than everyone else's
- Her jumps when rotated are of better quality than Alissa, Rachael, and Ashley

So in a sense, a good Mirai could still deserve to beat a clean Rachael. I mean at Worlds she still managed to beat Rachael even though she made more mistakes. I don't think it's unfair if the scores can be justified.

Sorry, but no, Mirai's spins are not as good as Alissa's.

Mirai LP spins at TEB:
4 LSp1 1.50 -0.69 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 -2 -3 0.81
11 FSSp4 3.00 0.50 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 3.50
12 CCoSp4 3.50 0.79 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 4.29

Alissa's LP spins at TEB
4 FCSp4 3.20 0.86 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 4.06
10 CCoSp4 3.50 1.43 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4.93
12 LSp4 2.70 1.50 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4.20

Every one of Alissa's spins scored better than Mirai's. (Even ignoring that Mirai will probably never mess up her layback spin again).
In fact, note that Alissa got all GOE +3 from every judge on her layback

And Alissa is the only one who looks good rotating around her leg pointed straight up.

Meanwhile Mirai does that vile sideways spin that is similar to the one Yu-Na does for a layback.

No contest on Spinning. Alissa for Spinmistress

Wasn't this what the speculation thread was for?

Anyway, we have to wait on results from the GPF to even begin to have an idea here.

dorispulaski said:

Sorry, but no, Mirai's spins are not as good as Alissa's.

Mirai LP spins at TEB:
4 LSp1 1.50 -0.69 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 -2 -3 0.81
11 FSSp4 3.00 0.50 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 3.50
12 CCoSp4 3.50 0.79 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 4.29

Alissa's LP spins at TEB
4 FCSp4 3.20 0.86 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 4.06
10 CCoSp4 3.50 1.43 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4.93
12 LSp4 2.70 1.50 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4.20

Every one of Alissa's spins scored better than Mirai's. (Even ignoring that Mirai will probably never mess up her layback spin again).
In fact, note that Alissa got all GOE +3 from every judge on her layback

And Alissa is the only one who looks good rotating around her leg pointed straight up.

Meanwhile Mirai does that vile sideways spin that is similar to the one Yu-Na does for a layback.

No contest on Spinning. Alissa for Spinmistress

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Mirai did receive +3s across the board for both her laybacks at Worlds last year. I believe that there have only been three ladies who have received +3s across the board for their spins (all laybacks): Alissa, Mirai, and Caroline- All American ladies :thumbsup:.
Though I agree, the I-spin that Alissa (and Mao) do are far more attractive... Alissa even does that A-frame spin in her SP. Though one problem I have with one of Alissa's spins is in her camel, how she has to drop twice, once for the donut, once to raise up the leg in the "bielmann" catchfoot.

What "vile sideways spin"? Doesn't Alissa do that too? Or are you talking about the I-spin that nobody really but Sasha can do justice

dorispulaski said:

Sorry, but no, Mirai's spins are not as good as Alissa's.

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At nationals, Mirai's spins will receive the same GOEs as Alissa's - +2s and +3s across the board. Internationally, yes Alissa may get slightly higher GOEs than Mirai but at nationals everyone is always going goo-goo gaga over Mirai's spins. And regarding the layback, though Alissa has a better classic and side layback position, Mirai has a better biellman position (she tips her head back to almost her butt which Alissa does not) and haircutter position ( Mirai's is essentially Caroline's pearl position and Alissa's is not), at least IMO.

I mean we see this happen internationally all the time - Yuna winning the GPF with a 4 triple FS and 09 Worlds with a 5 triple FS, Miki Ando winning CoC and COR with 5 triple FSs, low scoring SPs, and no attempt to interpret the music, Lepisto winning world bronze with a 3 triple FS, Chan winning SC with 4 falls. If a skater is good enough and better than the other competitors baseline, he/she can afford to make some mistakes and still come out on top (or in Mirai's case, finish in the top 2). Now I think we see this practiced a little too liberally in a lot of international competitions, but a certain level is acceptable, for example I think Yuna deserved to win the GPF last year even though she didn't skate her best because she did skate fairly well there and was better baseline than the other competitors there so she was able to win.

Lol, I see everybody slyly putting forth their favorite skater to make the World Team, even me.

Ah, but like I just mentiond in the other thread you're only as good as your last competition.

None of them is Michelle Kwan, so if they don't skate lights out at Nationals, nothing will save them, not winning a GP or even the GPF, and I mean that with all sincereity, especially after taking a look back at US Nationals history, as it should be.

p.s. age doesn't matter either, whether you're 14/15/16/17/18/19/23/25, they all have a fair shot at making it, a chance to show the US what they're made of.

arty:BRING IT ON, BRING IT ON!!!!arty:

Those thinking that somehow at US Nationals the kid always wins should think upon the career of Rudy Galindo who beat Todd Eldredge for the US Championship in 1996 the year Todd won Worlds. While I am willing to entertain a certain amount of conspiracy theories about judges at US Nationals, if someone has a really magical competition (which BTW includes the practices) as Rudy did in San Jose, even if they have never medalled at US Nationals, they will win, even if not the youngest skater out there.

And the vile sideways layback that Mirai does normally scores very well indeed, I just hate the way it looks, sort of like the agitator in my washing machine. I also hate the way that the Sasha pencil spin looks, except when Alissa is doing her version. And the girls doing the Rudy Galindo shotgun spin don't look so hot either, most days. And then Lord forbid, there's the Rachael Flatt version of a camel while grasping her foot. IMO, COP has not improved ladies' spins one bit.

Nadine said:

Lol, I see everybody slyly putting forth their favorite skater to make the World Team, even me.

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Well...What does one expect? It's always like that, isn't it? People's hopes become their "predictions" as they simply want to see their favorite win.

Ah, but like I just mentiond in the other thread you're only as good as your last competition.

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Disagree. I think you're as good as your results from the past season (and no further than that). However, that said, a bad showing at one competition can have a negative effect on confidence and it's up to the skater to shake it off and move forward.

dorispulaski said:

And the girls doing the Rudy Galindo shotgun spin don't look so hot either, most days.

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yeah, well, it doesn't look good on him (or any guy really) either. Some spins just should not happen.

Essentially I think Mirai is the only lady we MAY see partial treatment given toward at nationals. As for everyone else - Rachael, Ashley, Christina, Agnes, Alissa, etc - they have to skate really well and earn their spot on the World team if they hope to go.

silverlake22 said:

Essentially I think Mirai is the only lady we MAY see partial treatment given toward at nationals.

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we didn't see it last year when many believed she clearly outskated Rachael... Rachael has done everything the USFSA has asked, and is solid when Mirai still has her "bipolar" moments on the ice...