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Thread: GP Speculation-2013-2014: THE LADIES

  1. #31
    Miserere Nobis
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    After reading all of these insightful analyses, here are my GP predictions for the Russian ladies:

    2 spots: Lipnitskaia, Sotnikova*, Tuktamysheva*, Radionova, Pogorilaya, Leonova
    1 spot: Makarova, Gosviani, Korobeynikova
    No spots: Biryukova, Agafonova

    And for the US ladies:

    2 spots: Gold*, Wagner*, Zawadzki, Gao, Nagasu
    1 spot: Hicks, Cesario, Wang, Miller, Zhang, Czisny (if she returns)
    No spots: Siraj, Cain

    * Guaranteed 2 spots due to placement at Worlds

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Sure, Russia could get 3 spots in every event, but that's doubtful. Last year, for nine ladies, Russia got 3 spots at SC, CoR and TEB, but 2 at USA, CoC and NHK.
    I wasn't saying anything about the spots being guaranteed. I was saying about what the Federation will probably push for. The Federation can influence it up to some extend, for example by not submitting the weaker skaters such as Makarova and Byriukova. Last year the Russian Federation was able to get in total 16 spots (Shelepen got two but withdrew from one because of injury, but she did get two) which meant that eight eligible ladies all got two spots. Based on that I am hoping that Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaya, Radionova, Pogorilaya, Leonova, Gosviani and Korobeynikova could with a bit of luck all have two (and then Makarova, Biryukova and Agafonova will be without), or Gosviani and Korobeynikova just one and then Biryukova and Agafonova (or Makarova) may get one too.

  3. #33
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    Leonova, Makarova and Korobeynkova all finished 6th and 7th at their 2012 GP events, and 7th, 8th and 10th, respectively, at 2013 Nationals. Leonova finished the season with 13th place at Worlds with a score 5 points higher than what Gosviani scored at Euros. Gosviani obviously didn't impress the Russian federation with her Euros performance, so they didn't send her to Worlds. Why should any of these ladies be considered for GP assignments by their own federation?

    Russia won only 4 medals in the 2012 GP, and they were won by Lipnitskaia, Tuktamysheva and Sotnikova.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Leonova, Makarova and Korobeynkova all finished 6th and 7th at their 2012 GP events, and 7th, 8th and 10th, respectively, at 2013 Nationals. Leonova finished the season with 13th place at Worlds with a score 5 points higher than what Gosviani scored at Euros. Gosviani obviously didn't impress the Russian federation with her Euros performance, so they didn't send her to Worlds. Why should any of these ladies be considered for GP assignments by their own federation?

    Russia won only 4 medals in the 2012 GP, and they were won by Lipnitskaia, Tuktamysheva and Sotnikova.
    Leonova will because she still has the world standing, so she will get the GP events.

    Korobeynikova will get it because last season they secured it for Byriukova, and I think Byriukova was at that time seen weaker than Korobeynikova is now.

    Gosviani will get at least one because I think last year the Russian Federation learned last season not to underestimate her, and they want to keep their options open. I think actually Gosviani did impress the Russian federation with her Euros performance. It was unexpected for them.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Russia won only 4 medals in the 2012 GP, and they were won by Lipnitskaia, Tuktamysheva and Sotnikova.
    Not enough for you? Should we check how many medals in ladies was won by Canada or US?

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Sure, Russia could get 3 spots in every event, but that's doubtful. Last year, for nine ladies, Russia got 3 spots at SC, CoR and TEB, but 2 at USA, CoC and NHK.
    Eight Ladies.
    1.Biryukova
    2.Korobeynikova
    3.Leonova
    4.Lipnitskaia
    5.Makarova
    6.Sotnikova
    7.Shelepen
    8.Tuktamysheva

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    This year, only two in the top 12 at Worlds are guaranteed two events.
    The same as past season.

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Five ladies are in the top 24 lists: Lipnitskaia, Leonova, Korobeynikova, Radionova and Pogorilaya.

    Makarova, Gosviani and Biryukova are not guaranteed any GP events; Agafonova is not eligible except for a host pick because she has no SB ranking:

    Makarova 28 SB, 26 WR - might get substitute event, if submitted
    Gosviani 32 SB, 71 WR - might get substitute event, if submitted
    Biryukova 61 SB, 91 WR - probably not submitted
    Agafonova no SB, 75 WR - ineligible for invitation
    Yes.

    Makarova (if she will compete) and/or Gosviani may have two Events by substitute. Or may not.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Cesario may be near the top of the SB list, but that is not a guarantee that she would be chosen as a substitute. When there is a withdrawal, the host country is given a list of top 24-list skaters who haven't received two events yet, and a list of the top 5 skaters on the SB list with no GP invitations yet. Mirai Nagasu was a top-24 skater with one GP event and also the top skater on the SB list, but 9 other skaters received substitute events before Mirai was finally chosen to replace Alissa Czisny at NHK just 10 days before that event.
    Nagasu replaced Shelepen, not Czisny. Czisny's place was lost (as somebody told - lost not to be for Osmond).
    At all, this looked as operation of RusFed, USFS and JFS against SkateCanada.
    1. Shelepen (bad results of previous competitions and injury) WD at last moment when substitute is possible.
    2. Nagasu has spot.
    3. Alissa WD when substitute is impossible.

    And as I heard - Nagasu's second place USFS assigned to other skater (and ISU agreed). And only because of this Nagasu had her second GP Event so late.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by hanca View Post
    There is six GP events and in each of them there can be max 3 skaters per country, so there is max 18 places for any country.

    As I see it, from Russian ladies 2 spots will go to: Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaya, Radionova and possibly (but not for sure) to Pogorilaya. (Last year Lipnitskaya and Shelepen dominated in Juniors and this season they ended up with two spots, so I think the same will be for Radionova and Pogorilaya next season).

    That leaves 8 available spots. The remaining ladies are Leonova, Makarova, Biryukova, Gosviani, Korobeynikova and Agafonova.
    RusFed is interested in Gosviani and Leonova, not Makarova, Biryukova, Korobeynikova and Agafonova.
    So most probably Gosviani and Leonova will have GP Events, two for each.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    And for the US ladies:

    2 spots: Gold*, Wagner*, Zawadzki, Gao, Nagasu
    1 spot: Hicks, Cesario, Wang, Miller, Zhang, Czisny (if she returns)
    No spots: Siraj, Cain

    * Guaranteed 2 spots due to placement at Worlds
    Yes, it looks most probable.
    But some of them (Wang, Miller, less probably Hicks) may be at JGP, not GP.

  10. #40
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    Canada won one, Osmomd's gold in SC.
    US medaled in 4 out of 6 events and had a total 6 medals. Ashley got gold at SA and TEB, Gracie got silver at CoR, Christina got silver at SA, Agnes bronze at CoR and Mirai at NHK. Including Ash's silver at GPF, that's 7.

    Including GPF, US is tied with Japan with the most medals at 7 each, but Us had more skaters medal at 5 vs. 3 (Mao. Akiko and Kanako).

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Leonova finished the season with 13th place at Worlds with a score 5 points higher than what Gosviani scored at Euros. Gosviani obviously didn't impress the Russian federation with her Euros performance, so they didn't send her to Worlds.
    I believe, Gosviani was sent to Euro at first to stimulate Leonova skate better.
    Her result at Euro is not impressive.

    Leovova won Gosviani at Final of Russian Cup and because of this earned Worlds.
    But Leonova did not impressed RusFed at Worlds.

    I don't know who is less (or more) impressive for RusFed - Leonova or Gosviani.
    If possible, RusFed will make two GP Events for both. For whom first - it is the question.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Russia won only 4 medals in the 2012 GP, and they were won by Lipnitskaia, Tuktamysheva and Sotnikova.
    Quote Originally Posted by hanca View Post
    Not enough for you? Should we check how many medals in ladies was won by Canada or US?
    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Canada won one, Osmomd's gold in SC.
    US medaled in 4 out of 6 events and had a total 6 medals. Ashley got gold at SA and TEB, Gracie got silver at CoR, Christina got silver at SA, Agnes bronze at CoR and Mirai at NHK. Including Ash's silver at GPF, that's 7.

    Including GPF, US is tied with Japan with the most medals at 7 each, but Us had more skaters medal at 5 vs. 3 (Mao. Akiko and Kanako).
    US may have more medals than Russia, but the bottom line is that Russia and Japan qualified 2 ladies to GPF. US qualified one; the second US lady got in only because one of the Russian ladies had to withdraw for injuries. Maybe it is not about quantity (number of medals), but quality!

  13. #43
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    Leonova should not get a GP assignment nor should Makarova or Nikol G - for one fluke performance
    I think they are all done

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by hanca View Post
    US may have more medals than Russia, but the bottom line is that Russia and Japan qualified 2 ladies to GPF. US qualified one; the second US lady got in only because one of the Russian ladies had to withdraw for injuries. Maybe it is not about quantity (number of medals), but quality!
    The US got the 3rd spot back for next years Olympics and Worlds while the Russian ladies lost a spot so i think right now the US is at least as strong at the top as the Russian girls are.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    The US got the 3rd spot back for next years Olympics and Worlds while the Russian ladies lost a spot so i think right now the US is at least as strong at the top as the Russian girls are.
    We will see. I don't deny that Worlds was good competition for US ladies and bad competition for Russian ladies. Then again if you compare their results at 4CC and Europeans, you may notice that Europeans was good competition for Russian ladies and 4CC not so great for US ladies. We will see the next season, how it will work out. I definitely think that Russian ladies are not any worse than US ladies. In my opinion they are better, but we will see. I wonder how long Ashley Wagner will be achieving with her limited technical difficulty...

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