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- Jun 21, 2003
... that third pick should not be squandered on a skater with no chance at a top 10 finish.
Who, in your opinion, decides who has a chance and who doesn't? A USFSA committee?
... that third pick should not be squandered on a skater with no chance at a top 10 finish.
I don't think I disagree with you. I don't think AC has a realistic chance at a medal at the 2014 Olympics. I just think it is not *crazy* to think it could happen, if AC is clean (jumps-wise) and either CK or MA totally falls apart. (Yuna Kim will win a medal no matter what she does, let's face it. She will not be *judged*, though maybe she deserves that.)
Comparisons across seasons are difficult. Judges and technical controllers clearly get more lenient as the Olympics approaches. Anyway it was never my point that AC would win a medal at the Olympics.
I suppose the main point I meant to make was this: the relevant question is: By what criteria ought we decide who gets the "luxury" third spot? My view is that it ought to go to AC (so long as she is decent at Nationals). (E.g., third place should not go to Zawadzki yet again, no matter how scintillating her SP is, if she can't get through her LP without at least two major errors.)
I think it's a very apt comparison. Imagine if Czisny had had the opportunities that Kostner has had: being part of a national federation in which one basically has no competition. You get to go to Europeans (or Four Continents) and Worlds every year. (And, BTW, Kostner has, in her most challenged moments, been outscored by Marchei.) If Czisny had had these kinds of opportunities... well, the potential is hard to imagine (I think). Czisny at her best is, I believe, distinctly better than Kostner all things considered (by which I mean to emphasize that I think Kostner does have some important qualities in excess of Czisny). I would concede that Czisny's worst (2012 worlds) is worse than Kostner's, but that was due to undiagnosed injury.
(Let me clarify that I think Czisny, if she lands her jumps*, is a darkhorse medal contender at the 2014 Olympics and, even more so, Worlds -- i.e., giving her a spot on the team would not simply be a "gift" on the part of USFS. I think Czisny is the only US female skater about which one can plausibly say that, besides Wagner and Gold.)
Both Ashley and Gracie have the goods and the will to earn their places on the Olympic team. They certainly showed that at Worlds and WTT. Barring injury, I expect each of them to perform well at Nationals and secure a trip to Sochi. After those two, no other US lady so far has been as consistent a performer, so it's up in the air. The Grand Prix this fall should provide some clues....
I think Ashley and Gracie will make the Olympic team, but how has Gracie been a consistent performer? She had so many bad performances last season, and she still has serious meltdown potential - as I'm not yet convinced that she can hold her nerves in check and skate her best when something is on the line (her best performances have come when she was already buried in 9th place in the standings or in cheesefests like WTT.) She also seems to be sticking with the same coach and choreographer who have no clue how to package her. She needs to find a choreographer who can find a style that suits her. Maybe someone who can loosen her up, as she is very stiff and awkward in her movement when she is presenting her (poorly choreographed) programs.
That being said, outside of Wagner and Gold, none of the US ladies are particularly strong internationally. While I personally favor Christina my gut is telling me that Agnes will manage to repeat as US bronze medalist for the third year in a row. However, I believe that the potential difference in placement between Gao and Zawadzki at the Olympics would be so marginal as to be irrelevant. With the likes of the Big Three, the Russians, Wagner and Gold, Murakami, Suzuki, Li, and Osmond all expected to compete in Sochi, the third American girl would have a hell of a fight trying to squeeze into the top ten.
I don't know about you, but after Worlds, where Gold held it together in both programs (albeit with some small mistakes), placed sixth in the most loaded field in years, and helped Wagner secure three spots for the US, I don't need much more convincing. She IS the future of US skating. I agree that Scott Brown is all wrong for her, but she's also worked with Pasquale Camerlengo, who is a VERY respectable choreographer.
I think both Gao and Nagasu are liked by the international judges. Gao managed to qualify for the GPF afterall. I think both of those ladies would be worthy of the third spot. But Zawadzki will probably get the third spot, as the USFSA loves her and overscores her at Nationals (compared to how she is scored internationally.) But you're right that none of those ladies have any chance to medal (and will probably finish 10-12th.)
But the only reason Yu-Na won a medal at 2010 Worlds making so many mistakes was because just about everyone made multiple major/minor mistakes--hence why there was so much controversy over 3rd place which could easily have gone to 4 skaters other than Laura Lepisto. Yu-Na wouldn't have won a medal at other competitions with those performances--she lucked out that she had one of her worst at a pretty crappy competition all around.
I would say that Yu-Na accidentally won the long over Mao due to Mao's downgraded 3A. It's not Yu-Na's fault that Mao's second 3A was downgraded and it lost so many points. Had it not been downgraded, Mao would've won the long easily. Mao had the appearance of having skated a greater performance than was rewarded by the judges since she appeared to have landed everything cleanly, but that downgrade was costly. At least Mao won as she deserved to, and Yu-Na did enough to get the silver.
Hmm, I think we're pretty lucky to have 2 skaters who can crack the top 10 in Sochi--I'm not sure who the third would be that could crack the top 10. Alissa, Mirai, Agnes, Christina, Courtney Hicks? It would be tough for any of them.
Who, in your opinion, decides who has a chance and who doesn't? A USFSA committee?
Yes, you are correct that Asada's 3A was downgraded and she lost some points there, but few in the audience, or on these boards from what I remember, were happy with the scoring.
I was lucky enough to be in Torino in 2010, just for the ladies competition. Yuna had 5 major mistakes over the sp and FS. A lot of people in the audience after the FS were totally shocked at the FS result, Yes, you are correct that Asada's 3A was downgraded and she lost some points there, but few in the audience, or on these boards from what I remember, were happy with the scoring.
I don't think we are particularly lucky to have 2 potentialy in the top 10 at Sochi. It seems we have had 7 in the season's best top 25 list for the last 3 years (as long as I have been paying attention), so we have been particularly unlucky not having 3 entrants at worlds every year. I think any of Nagasu, Gao, Zawadski, and I guess Czisny could be thrown into the mix, could break the top 10 if they are skating well. It took a 174 to make 10th in London worlds, a score both Nagasu and Gao hit this year internationally, and Zawadski hit at Nationals. I still wonder about Zawadski's international scores though, as in 8 competitions, she has never broken above 166. None of the three are as consistent as Wagner/Gold, but they all have a decent shot of making the top ten.
I think Ashley and Gracie will make the Olympic team, but how has Gracie been a consistent performer? She had so many bad performances last season, and she still has serious meltdown potential - as I'm not yet convinced that she can hold her nerves in check and skate her best when something is on the line (her best performances have come when she was already buried in 9th place in the standings or in cheesefests like WTT.) She also seems to be sticking with the same coach and choreographer who have no clue how to package her. She needs to get a much better choreographer, one who can find a style that suits her. Maybe someone who can loosen her up, as she is very stiff and awkward in her movement when she is presenting her programs.
Gracie has consistently improved with each performance this season, and that has shown in her placements. She was a disaster at SA, but won a silver medal at CoR, even though she made several mistakes in her FS. What she has shown at Nationals, 4CC and Worlds is that she will not let mistakes in the SP keep her down, and they only spur her on to deliver a strong FS. Her performances have gradually improved as well. She showed more character in her Worlds and WTT performances than she had earlier in the season, and got higher PCS scores as well. I expect more improvement in the coming season.
I wouldn't mind seeing one of the newer girls have a breakout performance and place third next year.
I realize it's a long shot to send an unknown to the Olympics, which is probably why none of the newbies will make the team, but I do think they have the potential to turn in some great performances at nationals next year. Ashley, Gracie, Agnes, Mirai, Christina and Alissa will all be skating under a ton of pressure b/c they will know this is a last shot for them (well, not for Gracie but everyone else probably). That kind of pressure is tough to handle; therefore, we may see some implosions.
As for the newbies, it's always easier to skate when you feel like nothing is on the line and you have nothing to lose. I could totally see someone like Angela Wang (who is one of the few who has the goods to compete on the world level) having a major performance and threatening the podium.
I love all of these Vancouver hold-overs but I'm ready to see the newer girls make some strides...
So far Gracie has been a hot and cold skater and her placements reflect that (three times in the top 3 but also three times out of the top 5). You're never sure what you're going to get: focused Gracie or spacey Gracie. She handled herself well at worlds (Thank you Jebus). That was her most even competition of the season, but in every other competition she's been up in one program and down in the other. I do think politics play a role in her scoring to a certain extent (some of her PCS are totally unjustified IMO) but I have seen some improvement over the course of the season.
I wouldn't call her consistent though...at least not in a good way. She consistently flubs her SP and consistently makes mistakes in the FS too. It's tough to find a skater who can get through a FS cleanly so I'll forgive her that, but she really needs to work on getting over her SP jitters. The pre-2012 Ashley Wagner method is not a good one to follow (mess up the SP and then knock the FS out the park)...she'll always come up short.
Gracie is still getting her bearings as a senior skater so I don't think it's that big of a deal. Next season will be the real test though. She'll have a lot more pressure and expectation to deal with. Her ticket to Sochi is pretty much stamped but she still has to walk to the silver platter and pick up without tripping and knocking it over...
First off, the OP stole my thread!
Anyway, I will be VERY curious to see how Gold handles the pressure in the SP at Nationals/Oly Trials. If she thinks this year was bad, she ain't seen nothin' yet. One thing she does have going for her though is that she is showing more confidence and more drive. She knows now that she is competitive with the best, and is starting to skate accordingly. But- she will continue to get mixed results if the spotlight keeps overwhelming her. She needs to stay in the moment, something much easier said than done.
As for Wagner she seems to be dealing with change in her coaching situation. The main challenge for her is to increase her technical difficulty while remaining healthy. If she is physically unable to do so, she must figure out how to maximize points with what she CAN do. This might require some clever planning, choreo and strategy. Technically she is still the "almost" girl on the world stage. If she is to meet her goal(s)...she needs to step it up...fast.
It will be a Gao/Zawadzki battle - I think it's basically a draw at this point, but let's see who pulls ahead ultimately.
And it's up to those girls to make those strides.
I too love Angela Wang and thing she has a lot of potential, but like many other girls she needs to stop blowing it in the SP as well. She can score big in the FS, but her SP scores are downright scary when she does poorly. Even at her best, she has yet to break 60+. If we're going to pick on Gracie for her SP shortfalls, then the fact Angela is messing up SPs as a junior should be a concern.
She has the goods, for sure, but it hasn't all come together yet. I think it's smart she's staying junior internationally. That said, if she makes a huge splash at Nationals and gets in the top three, I'm all for sending her to the Olympics.
I agree she wasn't the most consistent skater this season, but she should be given credit for the improvements she made throughout the season. Let's face it some skaters never get a handle on their nerves. If this upward pattern continues (and I say Worlds and WTT should be considered both good competitions for her) than I think most will look back at this period as a slow start rather than an example of inconsistency.
I would agree RE: Gao/Zawadzki. I think judges are more than willing to give her high scores when she does well because she has great speed and big jumps (her lutz in particular is a beaut). However she has yet to put two great programs together so that is what is holding her back.
Gao has been a lot more consistent but she is almost too subtle in her choreography and she doesn't have the big jumps or spins to stand out. So her challenge will be to do programs that make her shine, shine, shine. (And get the levels on her spins)
From what I have heard, she's already WELL aware of the increase in pressure for this coming season as it's already started from the time Worlds was over. I suspect she's going to stick with a "conservative" layout of elements (ie the one that was most consistent this year for the LP) and not add anything new into the mix so she can skate clean and confident. I also am pretty sure that her SP will contain the 3Lz+3T right from the get go and not try the 3F+3T (which, as I said, getting an "e" call probably was messing with her head on the combo) this season. Making changes late in the game doesn't help consistency or attempting to fix the e call on the flip probably didn't help the combo either. I have little concerns about Gold because her demeanor since she's been back from Worlds and WTT has been totally different than before (in a good way).Anyway, I will be VERY curious to see how Gold handles the pressure in the SP at Nationals/Oly Trials. If she thinks this year was bad, she ain't seen nothin' yet. One thing she does have going for her though is that she is showing more confidence and more drive. She knows now that she is competitive with the best, and is starting to skate accordingly. But- she will continue to get mixed results if the spotlight keeps overwhelming her. She needs to stay in the moment, something much easier said than done.
Angela has the goods to reach the podium at nationals this year if she can get herself together. Her technical content is equal to Gracie's (actually it's better b/c her lutz and flip both go off the correct edges) and, unlike Gracie, she has a better grasp on interpreting music and delivering choreography. Angela has a gorgeous and smooth flow to her movements. She doesn't have the USFSA's backing like Gracie does so even if she's perfect she won't beat Gracie or Ashley unless one of the two implode, but she does have a chance to sneak into that third spot ahead of the other more established ladies if she can produce.