Which 2 Russian Ladies will make the Olympic Team?

drivingmissdaisy said:

Aside from Adelina, Liza, and Alena, all the senior-eligible Russian girls are boring and have tiny jumps. They all skate to the same lovely music and hyperextend their bodies. They have zero personality on the ice. There is a reason these three personal best scores are far better than the others.

Click to expand...

Eh I would not say Korobeynikova and Pogorilaya have tiny jumps, and I do think they have some personality, at least Pogorilaya does, Korobeynikova sometimes looks like a deer in the headlights but other times the projection and personality comes out. They have the big tricks too, idk why Korobeynikova watered down her content last season but if she can start doing her 11-12 season content with the 3f-3t, 3lz, and 2a-3t I think she could definitely play spoiler. Pogorilaya was so consistent with her jumps this whole season and competition nerves do not seem to be an issue for her, so she could do really well too, I guess a lot will depend on if her growth affects her jumps in the coming season or not.

drivingmissdaisy said:

I am a big Adelina fan, I do not think she is as good as the top 3, but IMO on talent she is 4th. You can call me delusional but please quit lying about things I said. It is not very nice.

Click to expand...

Talent? What talent? Jumping ability? She's behind at least 2 more groups. Her PCS pulled her to 9th. Skating skill? She's behind quite a few more. Performance? Not only she's behind the top 3, she's also behind Suzuki, Wagner, Gold, Osmond, etc...

What talent? Being Russian isn't a talent.

silverlake22 said:

Eh I would not say Korobeynikova and Pogorilaya have tiny jumps, and I do think they have some personality, at least Pogorilaya does, Korobeynikova sometimes looks like a deer in the headlights but other times the projection and personality comes out. They have the big tricks too, idk why Korobeynikova watered down her content last season but if she can start doing her 11-12 season content with the 3f-3t, 3lz, and 2a-3t I think she could definitely play spoiler. Pogorilaya was so consistent with her jumps this whole season and competition nerves do not seem to be an issue for her, so she could do really well too, I guess a lot will depend on if her growth affects her jumps in the coming season or not.

Click to expand...

People also are comparing their PCS to Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva, but forget those others are developing skaters who are still improving at a rapid rate. Sot. and Tuk. basically have slowed to a snail pace as far as their improvement goes for a couple years now (if there is even any to speak of) and are already probably reaching their peak essentialy. Sot. and Tuk. also set their international PB in PCS at Europeans which always scores the European skaters more highly than they are able to get anywhere else.

FlattFan said:

Talent? What talent? Jumping ability? She's behind at least 2 more groups. Her PCS pulled her to 9th. Skating skill? She's behind quite a few more. Performance? Not only she's behind the top 3, she's also behind Suzuki, Wagner, Gold, Osmond, etc...

What talent? Being Russian isn't a talent.

Click to expand...

She's 10th in the world! Should she be 20th? It's not like she did well so what's the complaining about?

pangtongfan said:

People also are comparing their PCS to Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva, but forget those others are developing skaters who are still improving at a rapid rate. Sot. and Tuk. basically have slowed to a snail pace as far as their improvement goes for a couple years now (if there is even any to speak of) and are already probably reaching their peak essentialy. Sot. and Tuk. also set their international PB in PCS at Europeans which always scores the European skaters more highly than they are able to get anywhere else.

Click to expand...

You're right in that Euros is scored much higher, but there have been instances where the PCS scores have been comparable (e.g. Tuktamysheva at TEB 2012 scored 27.05 in her SP, compared to 27.70 at Euros, which is not much difference; Sotnikova at World Team Trophy scored 30.60 PCS in her SP, which is greater than her 30.20 in her Euros SP -- and she scored 29.62 PCS in her Skate America SP).

Also, when comparing PCS, for the purposes of the Olympic team, we also have to look at how they're scored at home. From the 2013 Russian Nationals the PCS scores were:

Sotnikova: 32.57/68.00 = 100.57
Tuktamysheva: 32.97/66.92 = 99.89
Leonova: 32.54/64.24 = 96.78
Korobeynikova: 29.92/58.58 = 88.50
Gosviani: 27.34/55.83 = 83.17
Pogorilaya: 26.43/55.14 = 81.56

Since Lipnitskaia bombed, and in Juniors at that, it's hard to say where she would have fit in. But it's obvious that Sot/Tuk have a considerable PCS advantage over the others.

drivingmissdaisy said:

When did I ever say that? I can accept many things but please do not lie about what other people said on here. I may have said Adelina could beat Kim on TES on the strength of her spins if she were to nail her jumps.

Click to expand...

Well even here you would still be way off base with reality IMHO. Kim and Sotnikova both skating cleanly Kim would easily score higher on both TES and PCS. The quality in their jumps are gulfs apart, Kim has better footwork as well, and Kim I believe has a higher base value too and would easily acquire more GOE points in total if both were clean, even if you were right (which IMO you arent) that Sotnikova would probably get more in spins. That is even in the fantasy Sotnikova could even do a totally clean LP in the true sense of the word with no UR or edge calls whatsoever, which of course is not reality.

As for the spins there seems to be a GoldenSkate myth that has begun that Kim is a mediocre spinner, which is far from true. There was even someone who said Kostner, a very mediocre spinner with the worst layback since Butyrskaya, would be pulling in more GOE on spins, so the myth has gotten too far at this point. Other than maybe Gold and Asada, and even they are debateable, Kim is atleast as strong or better a spinner as anyone in the top 10. She is just so dominant people are needing to pick apart anything she isnt gulfs above the field so they choose spins, and then from there spin the myth all the others are better which is quite comical. Kim garnered 12.68 points on 3 spin elements in her LP at Worlds, 3.28 total in GOE and all 3 spins had some +3s. Message me about Sotnikova`s better spins next time she manages that (and then if that ever comes try going into how a clean Sotnikova would even stay within a clean Kim by 5 points in jump GOE in a typical LP).

Second, there is a difference between a JUMP and a JUMP COMBINATION, but I wouldn't expect you to know the difference.

Click to expand...

LOL when someone says jumps they are typically referring to all jumps. Unless you are specificying we are doing a unique breakdown of the quality of solo jumps and jump combinations, but if Sotnikova is losing out on jump combination GOE than she needs to improve those I guess. Either way if Gold is getting more total GOE in her jumps and jump combinations combined her jumps overall are better and getting more GOE just as I said.

Third, virtually every skater has a "chronic UR problem" if Adelina is your standard.

Click to expand...

Not not EVERY SKATER has a chronic UR problem. Yu Na Kim and Carolina Kostner certainly dont. Wagner does not anymore. Gold certainly does not, is almost never called for one. Many skaters arent. Nagasu, Sotnikova, and Asada arent èvery skater. Sotnikova`s UR problem is so bad it is almost a built in mistake more than a real mistake per say as she is certain to have a couple per long program basically. Atleast Golds mistakes are almost all actual mistakes due to concentration and nerves as it is almost always a fall, pop, or stumble out of a jump (different jumps each time, which indicates it isnt her technique but still searching for consistency in general) while Sotnikova has certain jumps she frequently gets URs or outright downgrades on. and of course always gets called for a flutz on her lutz, which indicates a much deeper problem in technique, and one people like Gold dont even have to worry about, just finding consistency in competition. That is also a scary reality for Sotnikova as it means she has so much further to go to improve her typical competition jump performance than Gold who simply has to start doing what she does in practice; and while Sotnikova could improve artistically by getting better choreography that showcases her talents (her LP this year was awful) Gold is totally undeveloped artistically at this point and even if her potential might be limited in the artistic side of skating probably can improve more from where she is now there too; and yet Gold is already beating Sotnikova consistently.

I am a big Adelina fan, I do not think she is as good as the top 3, but IMO on talent she is 4th.

Click to expand...

Well we will have to agree to disagree then. I dont think she is the 4th best skater right now by any stretch, even overlooking nerves. I think others her age like Gold, Osmond, and even Li and Tuktamysheva (when is the last time she beat Tuk. in a long program now) are passing her by. Wagner is currently a superior skater and competitor, and Suzuki on a good day is too. Also keep in mind you respond to me moreso than vice versa, so it is you trying to force your opinions on me than the other way around. I am fine if you really think Sotnikova is so much better a skater than most of us and her results indicate, but that wont stop me from saying she is overhyped and not as good as a few of her select fans says she is at the moment.

drivingmissdaisy said:

Some people refuse to look at facts and are just so biased against skaters that you cannot take them seriously.

At Europeans, Adelina received +GOE on ALL jumping elements, including the two 3T's that she "can't even rotate", in the SP. In the LP there, she got +GOE on 5 of her 7 "terrible" jumping passes. At Worlds, 2 of 3 jumping passes got +GOE in the SP and 3 of 7 in the LP (somewhat disappointedly). At WTT she was 2/3 and 4/7. She obviously is not Yuna Kim in jumping consistency but she is one of the best in the World and far as the ability to get GOE based on the quality of her jump technique.

Click to expand...

I'm far from an Adelina hater. I believe having her level of SS at such a young age is a rare talent. She just doesn't have solid technique in her toe jumps from the toe pick (compare that with the ideal toe jumper Yuna Kim to see the difference, from 3T to 3Lz) to the use of edges, and it is still true how much undeserved GOEs they receive. And I don't believe that much in protocols since I think GOEs and edge calls often do not accurately reflect what skaters actually put on ice. No way her 3F deserved +2's from anyone of the judging panel.

pangtongfan said:

Not not EVERY SKATER has a chronic UR problem. Yu Na Kim and Carolina Kostner certainly dont. Wagner does not anymore. Gold certainly does not, is almost never called for one. Many skaters arent. Nagasu, Sotnikova, and Asada arent èvery skater. Sotnikova`s UR problem is so bad it is almost a built in mistake more than a real mistake per say as she is certain to have a couple per long program basically. Atleast Golds mistakes are almost all actual mistakes due to concentration and nerves as it is almost always a fall, pop, or stumble out of a jump (different jumps each time, which indicates it isnt her technique but still searching for consistency in general) while Sotnikova has certain jumps she frequently gets URs or outright downgrades on. and of course always gets called for a flutz on her lutz, which indicates a much deeper problem in technique, and one people like Gold dont even have to worry about, just finding consistency in competition. That is also a scary reality for Sotnikova as it means she has so much further to go to improve her typical competition jump performance than Gold who simply has to start doing what she does in practice; and while Sotnikova could improve artistically by getting better choreography that showcases her talents (her LP this year was awful) Gold is totally undeveloped artistically at this point and even if her potential might be limited in the artistic side of skating probably can improve more from where she is now there too; and yet Gold is already beating Sotnikova consistently.

Click to expand...

Dafuq?! Well, okay... one question ahead: shouldn't chronic UR problems mean that a skater has problems rotating their solo triple jumps - as in, not just those at the end of a combination? Like it is with Nagasu and Asada? Alright, so let's say the answer to that is 1.) yes, chronic UR problems mean already having trouble with other jumps than the 3T at the end of combinations (which your post implies you think Sotnikova has - on several jumps and even DGs at that); or 2.) no, 3-3T< and/or 2A-3T< is already "enough".

For the 1.) answer: take a reality check. Sotnikoa was at SA, COR, EC, WC and WTT. At those events, except for the backend 3T she had one UR call the whole season. That was at the COR LP, after she fell on the previous jump, she underrotaed a 3Lo - that she fell on too.
Adelina does not have a general problem with rotating her solo jumps.
For the 2.) answer: if 3-3T</2A-3T< means chronic UR problems, drivingmissdaisy is pretty much right. Not all skaters are 'underrotaters' in that sense - but your example of Ashley Wagner is indeed. Is she attempting and completing 3-3 combos or the 2A-3T regularly? Nope. Now guess why. Pretty sure she has trouble rotating the 3T in practice already. So, Ashley seems to have chronic UR problems! (And I hope this example shows how stupid this logic would be...).
Sotnikova does have technical issues - but foll rotation of her jumps is generally not one of them.

Besides - Adelina flutzes and that's the kind of problem Gracie doesn't have to worry about? So a Lip is not a technical issue?

Li'Kitsu said:

Besides - Adelina flutzes and that's the kind of problem Gracie doesn't have to worry about? So a Lip is not a technical issue?

Click to expand...

There's a technical issue and there's the technical issue.
A lutz is worth a lot more than a flip.

Gracie does 2 lutzes and a lip in her LP.
Adelina does 1 flutz and 2 flip (never manage to land both flips) in her LP because her flip technique is horrendous.

Do you understand why people say Adelina has a lot more problems compare to Gracie? Everyone has little technical issues, but you can't compare Gracie's to Adelina's because those alone give Gracie at least 1.5 lutz advantage over Adelina.

So roll your eyes a little less.

FlattFan said:

There's a technical issue and there's the technical issue.
A lutz is worth a lot more than a flip.

Gracie does 2 lutzes and a lip in her LP.
Adelina does 1 flutz and 2 flip (never manage to land both flips) in her LP because her flip technique is horrendous.

Do you understand why people say Adelina has a lot more problems compare to Gracie? Everyone has little technical issues, but you can't compare Gracie's to Adelina's because those alone give Gracie at least 1.5 lutz advantage over Adelina.

So roll your eyes a little less.

Click to expand...

Exactly. People on this thread keep insisting Sotnikova is a way better artist than Gold (maybe true to a degree for now), and is even a better jumper (laughable) apart from consistency. Yet Gold has been even more inconsistent than Sotnikova this year and generally falls and makes big errors not related to poorish technique (flutzing, downgrades, lipping all combined, etc...) more often yet is consistently beating her already. So unfortunately their theories dont add up to reality very well.

pangtongfan said:

Exactly. People on this thread keep insisting Sotnikova is a way better artist than Gold (maybe true to a degree for now), and is even a better jumper (laughable) apart from consistency. Yet Gold has been even more inconsistent than Sotnikova this year and generally falls and makes big errors not related to poorish technique (flutzing, downgrades, lipping all combined, etc...) more often yet is consistently beating her already. So unfortunately their theories dont add up to reality very well.

Click to expand...

And it is all these problems that could actually make her vulnerable for a Sochi spot. Because she has the worst flip technique of all Russians if she does try 2 again next season and makes the same kinds of mistakes she is leaving a lot of points on the table and may not be able to beat all eligible Russians. Her PCS may not be able to save her when her jumps are just at the point where they are almost never at base value.

drivingmissdaisy said:

Do you actually look at protocols before you make these statements? Adelina gets better GOE on clean jumps than Gracie. Adelina got higher GOE on her 3F in her Worlds LP than any jump Gracie did in the LP. In the SP, they both did clean 2A's and Adelina's scored higher.

Click to expand...

Even without slo-mo analysis, you can tell that Adelina's 2A was better in quality. Gracie seemed to have to fight for her balance--she lowered her torso on the landing as though preparing to put a hand down. In the FS, Gracie hit the boards on a 2A, turned out of her money combo 3-3, turned out of a 3S, and lipped the 3F combo; however, she still scored more GOE than Adelina, and her 2A-3T got +1.30, versus Adelina's +1.20 on the 3F.

FlattFan said:

Do you understand why people say Adelina has a lot more problems compare to Gracie? Everyone has little technical issues, but you can't compare Gracie's to Adelina's because those alone give Gracie at least 1.5 lutz advantage over Adelina

Click to expand...

And where did I disagree with Gracie being a better jumper with overall better technique than Adelina ? (I'm pretty sure I said Gracie was the better jumper numerous times on different threads). The point is pangtongfan wrote a whole rant about how supossedly awful Adelina and everything about her is (with some parts simply being false - but who cares about reality if simply bashing someone is more fun?). With Adelina, every single technical issue gets picked apart lately as if every single one of them means her graveyard. "Everyone has little technical issues" - guess what, that's what I meant when I said Gracie has some problems too by mentioning her Lip. But some skaters get scrutinized for their issues, and some don't.
Again: yes, Adelina has more technical issues than Gracie! (In case you want to read something I didn't write again). That doesn't mean however that Adelina is an awful skater, or that she has general UR problems on several of her jumps, or that she's the only skater to have any kind of issues, or that her Flutz is like the worst thing ever while Gracie doesn't have to worry about technical problems at all,... (in short: any of the things pangtongfan wrote). But you've done nothing than throwing in some random Adelina bashing (or better to say some bashing of all the russian skaters, really) anyway, so it's hard for me to do anything more than rolling my eyes, sorry

pangtongfan said:

People on this thread keep insisting Sotnikova is a way better artist than Gold (maybe true to a degree for now), and is even a better jumper (laughable) apart from consistency.

Click to expand...

Who did? One poster was using some actual numbers from worlds to show that Gracie was not that far ahead in +GOE as you think she is. And that was +GOE, not generally better jumper. The majority of posters is stating themselves that Adelina has technical issues! Hype? Where? The only thing I see is some posters who argue with your bashing, that's it. There were no "people on this thread insisting Sotnikova is a better jumper than Gold". You should stop making things up, no matter how much fun the hating brings you.

pangtongfan said:

People also are comparing their PCS to Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva, but forget those others are developing skaters who are still improving at a rapid rate. Sot. and Tuk. basically have slowed to a snail pace as far as their improvement goes for a couple years now (if there is even any to speak of) and are already probably reaching their peak essentialy. Sot. and Tuk. also set their international PB in PCS at Europeans which always scores the European skaters more highly than they are able to get anywhere else.

Click to expand...

Yes exactly, Pogorilaya's PCS jumped hugely from the start of the season. In her 1st JGP her PCS in the FS was 42, then at JGPF it was 50. Even at JW where she had a messy skate, marks were 49, 4th highest on the night only below Radionova, Lipnitskaya, and Cesario (the latter two only by a 2-3 points). Korobeynikova was a complete unknown and then came in 4th at Europeans. Her PCS do drop when she doesn't skate well, but they can also rise considerably when she does. If those two were to be skating really well next season, I think they could potentially come close to closing the PCS gap on Tuk and Sot, at least domestically, so that if they are skating better in the fall and at Nationals, they could make the team over one of the "favorites" if they deliver stronger technical content. The system in Russia is different in the US, if an up-and-comer is kicking butt right before the Olympics and one of the favorites is bombing, then I really don't think the favorites will be held up in order to be sent to the Olympics, the girl who is skating really well will be sent instead because the Fed wants to send the skaters who will place the highest there.

After worlds and wtt the issue is can tuktamishva and sotnikova still skate well enough to be In the top 3 of eligible girls for euros. Probably both yes but maybe just one and then you saw with korobeynikova at euros how she totally dominated leonova and makarova no problem and could that happen to a declining or stagnating liza and Adelina. So then the issue is would the korobeynikova go to Sochi over Liza and Adelina? There's nothing special about Liza or adelina's pcs but especially lizas.

I think Korobeynikova could definitely go to Sochi if she's skating well with hard technical content this fall and at Nationals and Liza or Adelina is struggling.

silverlake22 said:

I think Korobeynikova could definitely go to Sochi if she's skating well with hard technical content this fall and at Nationals and Liza or Adelina is struggling.

Click to expand...

Korobeynikova would have to be perfect and Liza and Adelina would have to royally bomb... Their PCS over Korobeynikova is monstrously bigger and it's highly unlikely that Korobeynikova will go from 10th, 7th, 10th to number 2 in one season given the slew of other girls who have higher scoring potential than her.

That's why I wonder about "a" or a "the" korobeynikova at a euros. Because they dont have to beat them at Russian nationals just one or both at euros. Because that's the way things can work- but usually if it fits into an already existing strategy! Like the strategy to get kovtun to worlds because him being there guaranteed Russia two spots in men's. Lol.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

Korobeynikova would have to be perfect and Liza and Adelina would have to royally bomb... Their PCS over Korobeynikova is monstrously bigger and it's highly unlikely that Korobeynikova will go from 10th, 7th, 10th to number 2 in one season given the slew of other girls who have higher scoring potential than her.

Click to expand...

Yep. I can think of at least 7 ladies who will most likely place higher than Korobeynikova at RN.

ETA: I re-watched some of Adelina's programs from this season and was surprised by how much her jumps frightened me -- and not in a good way. Even on the jumps we know she CAN do, she rushes the entrance and lands with her upper body almost parallel to the ice. I still think she has the greatest scoring potential of all of the Russians, but she needs to devote some serious time to fixing her technique.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

Korobeynikova would have to be perfect and Liza and Adelina would have to royally bomb... Their PCS over Korobeynikova is monstrously bigger and it's highly unlikely that Korobeynikova will go from 10th, 7th, 10th to number 2 in one season given the slew of other girls who have higher scoring potential than her.

Click to expand...

What is bombing for Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva. A typical "good" competition for them is giving up 15 points in mistakes alone it seems which is much more than the PCS gap they have on Korobeynikova and Pogorilaya already.