What Skaters will skate which events In the Olympic Team Event Competition?

[Raskolnikov]

Without Katsalapov we really are screwed

 

[gravy]

After Russian Nationals
Russia
Men - Misha
Ladies - Kamila (SP), Sasha (FP)
Pairs - M/G (SP), B/K (FP)
Dance - StepBuk

Ladies will be split no matter what so that they don't burn their ladies out and can get a medal sweep. Originally, I would have had Anna doing the free, but after her weak performance at Nationals and the return of Sasha's many quads, I think they'll give it to Sasha. I think Russia will split pairs instead of dance because they have two great choices there, and Moskvina will want both of her teams to do the team event. That leaves dance, where SinKats are definitely too injured to do four programs in two weeks at the Olympics. Getting her daughter the team medal has been Eteri's goal this whole season, but the numbers just don't add up for it to happen. Maybe it could have been the case if B/K had a weaker free skate or if SinKats are doing the rhythm dance, but I think this is what's going to happen.

I think this is what will play out and what I really wish would happen. Initially I was very nervous about Diana being unfairly chosen to compete in the team event but with Stepanova & Bukin's resounding victory over her and Gleb, I don't think even Eteri can BS her way to make that happen.

I also see two other possibilities: SinKats doing the entire team event to get an almost guaranteed gold or they will split the dance with StepBuk+SinKats and screw over Moskvina's teams and only have one of them do the team event.

---

For the US I'd have:

Pairs: *whoever wins Nationals will do both*
Men: Nathan - SP, Vincent - FS
Dance: Hubbell/Donohue - RD, Chock/Bates - FD
Ladies: Either Alysa or Karen to do both

But what I think will happen is they will have Hubbell/Donohue do both and split the ladies.

---

For Japan I'd have:

Pairs: Miura & Kihara
Men: Hanyu - SP, Yuma - FS
Dance: whoever they send will do both (fingers cross for KanaDai)
Ladies: Wakaba - SP (with 3A), Kaori - FS

I can see them flipping these ladies or subbing in someone for Yuzu if he doesn't want to do the team event.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

They could pull a Plushenko. I guess it matters which one they want more. Because if SinKats can show up somewhat healthy for the individual event, they might not have a chance for gold, but they're still medal favorites. So do they want a silver/bronze individual medal or a gold team medal.

I don’t think they would pull a Plushenko though because they have a legit shot at winning an individual medal, maybe even gold with enough hardcore politicking and a mistake from the French.

But once they WD’ed man the Russian fed worked fast to donate all their scoring to S/B. Maybe this will give S/B a shot to compete in team after all.

 

[dancelion21]

But what I think will happen is they will have Hubbell/Donohue do both and split the ladies.

Chock/Bates have said in a teleconference this week that they and Hubbell/Donohue would like to split the event. I find it difficult to believe that USFS will disregard the wishes of their two top dance teams.

 

[Colonel Green]

Ladies: Wakaba - SP (with 3A), Kaori - FS

I can see them flipping these ladies or subbing in someone for Yuzu if he doesn't want to do the team event.

My early prediction: Japan doesn't split the ladies and Kaori does both.

On paper you put one of the skaters with a triple Axel in the short program, but in reality neither Wakaba nor Mana's 3As are particularly reliable, and Kaori has the highest median SP score of the season.

Moreover, the JSF loves Kaori and doesn't like Wakaba (something that in both cases is all the more notable because the JSF is one of the most evenhanded federations, generally), so they aren't going to be looking to do the latter any favours.

 

[gravy]

My early prediction: Japan doesn't split the ladies and Kaori does both.

On paper you put one of the skaters with a triple Axel in the short program, but in reality neither Wakaba nor Mana's 3As are particularly reliable, and Kaori has the highest median SP score of the season.

Moreover, the JSF loves Kaori and doesn't like Wakaba (something that in both cases is all the more notable because the JSF is one of the most evenhanded federations, generally), so they aren't going to be looking to do the latter any favours.

Ugh, you may be entirely right but I think the scores for Wakaba at Nationals showcased that the JSF is starting to believe in her. She made very minor mistakes in her free which would have beat Kaori's free had she skated clean. In the past no skater was even close to Kaori except Rika with her 3A and 4S.

You made a good point about Kaori having the highest SP which could come in handy in the short program where 10 teams are competing. I still think they would give the free to Wakaba since only 5 teams compete but I think it would depend on who skates for the men. If Yuzu competes, I'd be willing to risk Wakaba in the free because of the buffer Hanyu would provide. It's also a good idea to give Wakaba time on Olympic ice for the individual event where she could have an outside shot at a medal should any of the Eteri girls implode or get injured.

If I were the JSF, I'd make it a priority to get as many Olympic medalists as possible to promote the sport in Japan. But we'll see!

Chock/Bates have said in a teleconference this week that they and Hubbell/Donohue would like to split the event. I find it difficult to believe that USFS will disregard the wishes of their two top dance teams.

I hadn't heard that before--I love it and makes me happy because they're two teams I think deserve Olympic medals over a second American woman. The Shibs kinda screwed over Hubbell & Donohue in 2018 by doing both so I was just thinking they would do the same to Chock and Bates but I'm pleasantly surprised!

 

[Colonel Green]

Chock/Bates have said in a teleconference this week that they and Hubbell/Donohue would like to split the event. I find it difficult to believe that USFS will disregard the wishes of their two top dance teams.

I mean, the USFS can't make a team do both if they don't want to.

Going by past procedure (in 2018), Hubbell & Donohue would get the second ask after Nathan, so that would be the second split. Makes things a bit interesting in the women's event now, even more to play for at nationals.

 

[mrrice]

This a bit off topic but, for some reason, I can't find the US Ladies thread on the main page. I was wondering if there have been any updates on Bradie's Health. Has she pulled out of Nationals? Is there a deadline for her to declare her entry? I'm really hoping that she gets the chance to go. Unfortunately, I don't see her making the team even if she does go. It must be so hard for the defending champion to sit out after winning the title.

 

[readernick]

This a bit off topic but, for some reason, I can't find the US Ladies thread on the main page. I was wondering if there have been any updates on Bradie's Health. Has she pulled out of Nationals? Is there a deadline for her to declare her entry? I'm really hoping that she gets the chance to go. Unfortunately, I don't see her making the team even if she does go. It must be so hard for the defending champion to sit out after winning the title.

There is a new forum dedicated to the national threads. Go to the main forum page and click on Skate of the Nations. The US ladies thread is there. There is some information about Bradie's health. It doesn't sound too good. It makes me sad. She is my favorite US lady and would have been perfect for the Team event in her 2020 form.

 

[mrrice]

There is a new forum dedicated to the national threads. Go to the main forum page and click on Skate of the Nations. The US ladies thread is there. There is some information about Bradie's health. It doesn't sound too good. It makes me sad. She is my favorite US lady and would have been perfect for the Team event in her 2020 form.

 

[dancelion21]

I mean, the USFS can't make a team do both if they don't want to.

Going by past procedure (in 2018), Hubbell & Donohue would get the second ask after Nathan, so that would be the second split. Makes things a bit interesting in the women's event now, even more to play for at nationals.

Don't go ahead and crown H/D US Champs already, I think C/B might have a few things to say about that

But yes, based on how they've decided the team event in the past, the committee essentially ranks the disciplines based on how likely they are to medal, and then go down the list and ask the top team in each discipline whether they would like to skate the whole team event or split it. So in 2018, Adam's book says that USFS deemed dance to be the top discipline, and they decided that the Shibs were the top ice dance team even though H/D won Nationals, so the Shibs got first dibs on skating the whole team event. Then, Nathan decided he wanted to split mens, and there was only one pairs team, so that wasn't an option.

This year, the committee will almost certainly have mens as the top discipline with dance in second. Nathan will almost certainly decide to split the event since the men's individual event is so soon after the team event. From what C/B have said, they and H/D have both agreed to split the team event, so it doesn't matter who wins Nationals, since both teams will get the chance to earn a well-deserved Olympic medal.

 

[PaulE]

Based on what someone in another thread said about the scoring level of the Russian women I think they should let Anna skate both programs for the women. And then choose Kamila and Alexandra to share the skating for the men . Then all three could get a team medal .

 

[Skater Boy]

Russia has the most drama. Do you go with Kamila for both programs and hope what happens to Yulia doesn't repeat itself. Still four programs to be clean may be asking too much. Roll the dice for the men though highest scoring capacity is Kolyada of curse. And pairs what do you do. Three teams. All could win olympic gold and all good be off the podium. MG seem to be No. 1. As for dance with SK - and in particular his back do you get them to do the RD and SB to do the freesdance to try to preserve SK for the individual event? I know there all sorts of conspiracy ideas with Diana but with SB solidly beating them at Nats they really should not be considered to skate for Russia.

 

[Skater Boy]

If the US wants to win gold in the team event then:
Nathan skates both programs
Liu skates both programs
Pairs and dance can share

But because if scheduling I am not sure if Nathan will do both. Jason has done remarkably well without a quad but if some of those teams with like Messing from Canada go reasonably clean, the Russian men does skates well and say China or Italy beats Brown that could be the end of the olympic dream for the USA.

But in pairs it is a toss up - will they beat Japan? They should beat lingering Canada. Nathan has a big say on the fortunes of Team USA and their quest or gold. If he doesn't do both I wonder if they will go with VInnie or Jason?

As for Japan I don't think Yuzuru will do both I am thinking he will do the sp and fs will be Shoma. The ladies will be split with Kaori and Wakaba and then dance and pairs are obvious.

I won't comment on Canada because I don't think they have a chance for the medal; they might even struggle to get to the fs/fd. Their only solid event is dance. Men they could be as high as third or last. Ladies well they could be last or as good as the middle of the pack. And pairs while I think third is unlikely now they could be as high as third or behind China, Russia, USA, Italy, Japan and one of the lesser challengers.

 

[lurkerghost1]

Russia has the most drama. Do you go with Kamila for both programs and hope what happens to Yulia doesn't repeat itself. Still four programs to be clean may be asking too much. Roll the dice for the men though highest scoring capacity is Kolyada of curse. And pairs what do you do. Three teams. All could win olympic gold and all good be off the podium. MG seem to be No. 1. As for dance with SK - and in particular his back do you get them to do the RD and SB to do the freesdance to try to preserve SK for the individual event? I know there all sorts of conspiracy ideas with Diana but with SB solidly beating them at Nats they really should not be considered to skate for Russia.

Women will have to split, Russia has marketing interests just like USA and they absolutely want a second OGM in women’s. I expect it will be Valieva in the short and Trusova in the free now unless Shcherbakova has a great free at Euros and Trusova is like US Classic.
Men’s, neither Kondratiuk nor Semenenko nor Mozalev are more stable or higher potential than Kolyada in either short or free so he will have to do both. It sucks for his individual medal chances but if he picks up team gold that is a better color than any bronze he could have maybe maybe won individually.

I agree the drama is between ice dance and pairs. M/G will do the free skate at this point but the other 3 programs in these disciplines are really open. The most fair and highest-scoring world would have S/K do both and B/K the short.

But with injuries to S/K the most realistic substitute instead is M/G do both and S/K the rhythm dance (a great midnight blues) and S/B the free.

The most political situation would see T/M doing the pairs short, M/G the free, and D/S both team segments while S/K and S/B “focus on the individual events.” Maximum Eteri participation. Well and kvitelashvili skating for Georgia team event too lol

 

[zach6794]

idk if rusfed trusts kolyada. they may choose to keep men to one man and not kolyada. it was a decision to may him barely second when they could have made kolyada national champion. If semenko or mark do better than kolyada at euros, that person may get both spots.

 

[zach6794]

If the US wants to win gold in the team event then:
Nathan skates both programs
Liu skates both programs
Pairs and dance can share

But because if scheduling I am not sure if Nathan will do both. Jason has done remarkably well without a quad but if some of those teams with like Messing from Canada go reasonably clean, the Russian men does skates well and say China or Italy beats Brown that could be the end of the olympic dream for the USA.

But in pairs it is a toss up - will they beat Japan? They should beat lingering Canada. Nathan has a big say on the fortunes of Team USA and their quest or gold. If he doesn't do both I wonder if they will go with VInnie or Jason?

As for Japan I don't think Yuzuru will do both I am thinking he will do the sp and fs will be Shoma. The ladies will be split with Kaori and Wakaba and then dance and pairs are obvious.

I won't comment on Canada because I don't think they have a chance for the medal; they might even struggle to get to the fs/fd. Their only solid event is dance. Men they could be as high as third or last. Ladies well they could be last or as good as the middle of the pack. And pairs while I think third is unlikely now they could be as high as third or behind China, Russia, USA, Italy, Japan and one of the lesser challengers.

I disagree. Nathan both is probs best for team, but he may not want too (which you mentioned). But where I disagree is ladies. Mariah bell can get 140 in fs and is on an upward trajectory. Alysa has UR issues in the fs. Now, if I was usfed, I would have alysa do the sp (and tell her to do a 2A) and Mariah do fs (and tell her to do a 3F-2A). The international judges allowed mariah bell to get the components again once she proved to have mostly clean programs (30 in sp-jumped to 64 in her first clean fs-then like a 33 in sp at rosteleocom with a clean sp-then a 69 in fs which is where she was in 2019-2020). Mariah is older which i think the judges respect. Idk if judges will award alysa the components. I think USA strategy should be minimize loss in ladies (like get 3rd in both segments, maybe 2nd if there an error from another skater). Pairs idk anymore what to do. Ice dance i think h/d are more consistent, but both h/d and c/b said they would share (as marie france would probably excommunicate one of them from montreal if they didnt) so it means the USFed would have opt to use the substitutions in mens and womens (i imagine nathan gets first say in doing both) by making men and women do substitutions if nathan doesnt want to do both parts. Doing ice dance substitution may be smarter for the ice dance comp because if both h/d and c/b have a medal if means maybe less pressure and more olympic exposure for both teams, so increases chance of an ice dance medal.

But to me, the highest scoring team
Nathan both programs
Alysa short (no 3A) and mariah long (no triple triple)
Pairs (idk anymore with nats, if leduc goes clean at nats, split kinerim/ leduc because of international big events like worlds where they showed to handle international pressure (i give some some slack for 2021 because they didnt expect to compete). it depends frazier's current health.
Ice dance (H/d because of their consistency)

This is assuming both frazier and alysa can get a negative PCR in time for olympics and no other member tests positive.

 

[alexocfp]

According to this, the Russians are sending only one skater to each discipline.

ÐÐЯÐÐÐÐÐРФÐÐÐÐ ÐЦÐРФÐÐУРÐÐÐÐ ÐÐТÐÐÐЯ Ð ÐССÐÐ - ÐÐÐÐÐÐÐÐÐ 2022

ФигÑÑиÑÑÑ ÑбоÑной РоÑÑии, коÑоÑÑе вÑÑÑÑпÑÑ Ð² команднÑÑ ÑоÑевнованиÑÑ Ð½Ð° ÐлимпийÑÐºÐ¸Ñ Ð¸Ð³ÑаÑ, вÑлеÑÑÑ Ð² Ðекин из ÐÑаÑноÑÑÑка 1 ÑевÑалÑ. Ðб ÑÑом ÑообÑил генеÑалÑ...

www.youtube.com

 

[Pereiro]

According to this, the Russians are sending only one skater to each discipline.

Yes, random youtube video which was made only for clicks is reliable source of information.
Btw, this is actual article from which this channel got text - link
There are nothing about who will skate what.

 

[Blades of Passion]

I mean, the USFS can't make a team do both if they don't want to.

Yes they can. Federations control everything, anytime an athlete competes it's only because the federation allowed it. A skater can choose to not show up to an event if assigned, but nobody is going to do that for the Olympics.