- Joined
- Feb 24, 2012
I just thought of something why is it Brian Orser is helping so many int'l skaters but not his own country? Hanyu's gap seems to have closed under Orser's teaching.
I just thought of something why is it Brian Orser is helping so many int'l skaters but not his own country? Hanyu's gap seems to have closed under Orser's teaching.
Yes, I just didn't think it was that likely to happen, so I just left it at lv 3... but with level 4 steps in both programs his overall BV would be about 8.11 points higher than Chans.
Chan didn't skate his best in the SP at GPF though. At TEB, Chan won the clean SP battle against Hanyu - beating him by 3.5pts in PCS. Skeptic that I am, I wonder if the PCS Hanyu got at the GPF in Japan will be similar outside of Japan with the same performances he gave.
The fact that Hanyu beat Chan at the GPF may help Hanyu in the PCS/GOE department. Like it or not, reputation does play a role in how the judges perceive skaters.
Another aspect favorable to Hanyu: Sochi is a resort area, a cleaner environment for an athlete with asthma.
SP BV:
Chan: 43.10; Hanyu: 43.76 (44.36 if he gets Lv4 on spins and steps)
LP BV:
Chan: 83.67 (assuming all his spins are lv 4); Hanyu: 90.02 (adding a Lv4 CCoSp instead of the Lv 1 from GPF)
So Hanyu has a 6.35 points advantage in the LP, around 7 points overall.
About the +GOE, I don't think Chan gets better GOE. It seems they're pretty similar on GOE (and sometimes Chan is getting similar or better GOE than Hanyu on the 3A, which makes me want to pull my hair out, but oh well...). Assuming Hanyu would be completly clean though, I think he'd get slightly higher GOE.
So it's really a thing of Hanyus BV vs. Chans PCS.
Only in Japan would Hanyu get 92.5 points of PCS with a fall. He would probably get something more like 88 points (considering he got 81 PCS at TEB and the primary technical difference between TEB and GPF was a popped quad). Even 7 extra points of PCS for a clean quad instead of a popped quad is rather generous.
That guy Chan's spins are nothing to write home about, so if he's getting high GOE on them, he shouldn't be. Also, I'm confused. I didn't see Chan doing a 4S at GPF, so unless Chan is planning on doing one at Sochi, why should Hanyu? The idea that one person has to do a 4S and 4T plus two 3As to have a chance against someone with two 4Ts and one 3A (that are of worse quality) is the kind of thing that makes some people not consider figure skating a real sport.
I agree that jumps aren't everything. They do count for a lot though (see Tara vs Michelle!) I don't recall the exact comp you're referring to with Goebel, but Yagudin and Plushenko also had excellent jumps and usually were technically superior to the field when they won. At GPF, Chan's jumps looked solid for the most part but were smaller relative to Hanyu's. He did not have the difficult entrances that Hanyu had. In terms of artistry, I thought they were both similarly good. Chan certainly seemed like a very good skater, but I just didn't see any area where Chan was SO superior to the field that he should be allowed to do one less 3A and no 4S.
I don't recall the exact comp you're referring to with Goebel, but Yagudin and Plushenko also had excellent jumps and usually were technically superior to the field when they won.
CanadianSkaterGuy, you are overreacting too much.
Even I think "perfect" Chan will beat perfect Hanyu. Many people (ISU/member federations except the Canadian) are not happy with the situation that the OGM is readily picked up by Chan, even with faulty performances. They ha learned the lessons from the farce of London worlds. Hanyu is expected to be a rivals to make the game more interesting and force Chan to skate with more seriousness. If Hanyu lands all jumps, Chan can't afford any major errors, anything bigger than one stepping out or a double salchow.
wallylutz said:In terms of GOE, Chan has better GOE in spins and steps, especially the latter. Hanyu isn't particularly impressive in terms of his spins or steps.
And to know you are serious about that...
Hanyu is a better spinner than Chan, quite often Chan gets higher GOE on his spins than he should. They're really close in GOE, like it or not.