A lot can happen in two years

tharrtell · Feb 4, 2004

I get so irritated when I read things like this:

"Kwan and Cohen are projected to be two of the top stars at the 2006 Olympic Winter Games in Torino, Italy." http://usfsa.org/Story.asp?id=23346

Two years is a long time - especially in a sport where injuries are common. Why start the predictions and expectations right now? I don't think it helps anyone. Michelle and Sasha don't need the pressure. The rest of the ladies field doesn't need to think they are fighting for one spot. Why???

Mathman · Feb 4, 2004

I agree, Tharrtell, and I especially think that the young Japanese stars are going to have their say. How good will Miki Ando and Yukina Ota be in two years?

Mathman

eliza88 · Feb 4, 2004

I too get irritated by these types of articles...I think it just gives the reporters something to do. Hopefully most of the skaters spend their time at the rink and doing other fun stuff and NOT reading hyped articles.

In another couple of months there will be a frenzy of reporters trying to get the top stories/rivalries for the 2004 Summer Olympics...

eliza88

guinevere · Feb 4, 2004

This reminds me of the 1986 Sports Illustrated cover featuring US gymnast Kristie Phillips doing her patented "phillips" move, with the title "The Next Mary Lou?" in huge letters....in 1988 Kristie didn't even make the Olympic team, and I believe she quit gymnaastics soon after.

Not that I expect this to happen to either Kwan or Cohen, but there's no such thing as a sure thing in sports!

guinevere

jesslily · Feb 4, 2004

In US there are a few talented junior ladies. The Junior champ Kimmie Messiner is definitely a Olympic gold hopeful. At national exibition, she performed 3 triples and 2 double axels in the program. The jumps looked so easy for her to put in the show program. She is only 14. :love:

Fossi · Feb 4, 2004

Agreed. Tara Lipinski "jumped" into the scene in '97. Although she competed in '96 she dominated in '97. Did anyone see that coming?
I think Jenny Kirk might be leading the US ladies. She's got the 7 triple programs. She has the 3/3. She is working on presentation, and in 2 years she just might own US figure skating.
Then again, maybe another little "jumper" will shock us all.

Ladskater · Feb 4, 2004

tharrtell:

It's just a publicity stunt for the Olympics - to capture people's interest. Remember "The battle of the Brians" before the 88 winter Olympics in Calgary? Poor Brian Orser. That media attention put a lot of extra stress on him that he did not need. I remember seeing him at Skate Canada and he looked as thoug he had the "weight of Canada" on his shoulders. It's too much. Like you said "a lot can happen in two years."

jesslily · Feb 5, 2004

Past two OGMs are all just 15 or 16 year old, and are from USA. I predict the next gold medalist will be around that age.

Joesitz (RIP) · Feb 5, 2004

If Bebe's hip heals and there are no further injuries, I think she just may take that road to the podium. And in her favor, she'll still be a teenybopper.

Joe

lavender · Feb 5, 2004

Yeah I hate articles like this.

icenut84 · Feb 5, 2004

And there's even a chance that the winner could be from somewhere other than America :eek:

I think it's mad to think any skater (or any two) have the Olympic gold tied up. It's two years away, ANYTHING can happen. Every time a new skater bursts onto the scene (e.g. Carolina Kostner, Yukina Ota, Miki Ando, Cynthia Phaneuf, etc) people start predicting they'll be the nexy OGM. In 2000, Sarah Hughes was 5th in Worlds. In 1996, Tara Lipinski was about 15th. In 1992, Oksana Baiul had never even competed. Who would have thought any of those would win? The point is, there are so many contenders (and from lots of different possible countries, not just USA) that it's impossible to know who'll be on the podium at this stage. Those skaters I've already mentioned could move up the rankings and take the gold. Irina Slutskaya could recover and come back strong. Any of the world-level competitors could improve drastically and be in contention. Michelle or Sasha could also win.

I think the uncertainty and competition makes it more exciting.

dizzydi · Feb 5, 2004

Everything you (posters) say on this topic is true.

A lot can happen in just one year, not to mention two. We get surprises year after year but never seem to learn. NO one has the Olympic Gold medal guaranteed. Just ask Michelle Kwan!

Dizzy

Callystarr · Feb 5, 2004

Well of course a lot of different things can happen in the course of 2 years, but history has pretty much been not far from what actually would happen. The sport you cannot predict because of injuries but that is almost with everything. Lets look @ the women...

1982: Rosalyn Sumners, Elaine Zayak, Katarina Witt were the top women in the world, Come the 1984 Olympics it was them 3 in the top 4.

1986: Debi Thomas, Katarina Witt were among the top women in the world, and they both took home gold/bronze come the 1988 Olympics.

1990: Trenary, Ito, Yamaguchi, Cook were the best women in the world at that time. In the 1992 Olympics, 2 of those women took home gold/silver.

1992: Yamaguchi, Kerrigan, Chen, Harding were the top women in the world. Yamaguchi retired...94 Olympics again silver/bronze were taken by those women. So relatively there was a surprise.

1996: Top women in the world was Kwan/Chen/Slutskaya...Tara Lipinski again became a huge surprise, but if you would have watched her 1996 worlds LP, and her performances @ nationals. I knew that she was going to be a huge threat simply because of her consistency..so it wasn't a surprise that she was going to be fighting for a medal @ the olympics.

2000: Kwan, Hughes, Slutskaya, Butyrskaya....were the top women in the world, and 3 of the women...medaled in 2002.

So its safe to say...now in 2004 that the top women in the world are...Kwan, Cohen, Suguri, Arakawa...and i believe it is safe to say that those women will all be in the top 5 come the olympics...

Kasey · Feb 5, 2004

Yes, a lot CAN happen in 2 years. Look at the men's medalists from 2002....Yagudin retired from eligible competition due to injury....Plushenko injured, while still competing...and Goebel, well, who knows fully what's up with him. All were young in 2002, and could have been anticipated to be at the 2006 Olys. Now, who knows if any of them will be there?

Kasey

Nadine · Feb 5, 2004

Hi jesslily,

Just wanted to mention that the following is not possible.......ONE must be 15 by July 1st of the previous year.......in order to participate in Worlds & Olympics. Thus, never again will we be fortunate enough to witness a 15 yr. old phenom such as Sonja Henie or Tara Lipinski winning the Olympics (or Worlds). And I think it's highly probable that the same can be said for 16 yr. old phenoms as well (e.g. Oksana Baiul & Sarah Hughes). Such is the rule. Not only that, but history shows us that ONE must also have been on the senior circuit for at least a year in order to medal, let alone to win (though there is that one exception, whom stands alone - Oksana Baiul). Thus, how can a 16 yr. old get that much needed international exposure in order to win Worlds & Olympics, in only a year (especially now with the aforementioned rule about needing to be 15 by July 1st). Well, though it is possible, I still say it's highly improbable. We shall see...

jesslily said:
Past two OGMs are all just 15 or 16 year old, and are from USA. I predict the next gold medalist will be around that age.

That said, I'm of the mind that ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE (no lie)!

Statistics be damned, even mine (lol). There's that fleeting possibility of that blazing comet appearing at least one year before the Olympics, if not two. And I'll be on the lookout.

Peace & Eyes Wide Open! Nadine (8^?

P.S. Sarah Hughes, herself, proved all those naysayers wrong when she became the first woman to win the Olympics without ever having won a National or World Title beforehand (not to mention leaping from 4th to 1st). Never say never...

Joesitz (RIP) · Feb 6, 2004

Nadine said:
Hi jesslily,

Just wanted to mention that the following is not possible.......ONE must be 15 by July 1st of the previous year.......in order to participate in Worlds & Olympics. Thus, never again will we be fortunate enough to witness a 15 yr. old phenom such as Sonja Henie or Tara Lipinski winning the Olympics (or Worlds). And I think it's highly probable that the same can be said for 16 yr. old phenoms as well (e.g. Oksana Baiul & Sarah Hughes). Such is the rule. Not only that, but history shows us that ONE must also have been on the senior circuit for at least a year in order to medal, let alone to win (though there is that one exception, whom stands alone - Oksana Baiul). Thus, how can a 16 yr. old get that much needed international exposure in order to win Worlds & Olympics, in only a year (especially now with the aforementioned rule about needing to be 15 by July 1st). Well, though it is possible, I still say it's highly improbable. We shall see...

Praise to be that we are heading toward a mature sport. A sport not just for little girls. While Sonia won at 15 she stayed with the sport and won her last Olys at age 23. No other skater has done that and imo, could do that. America's continuous search for Shirley Temple has never waned.

The reputation that figure skating has among other sportspeople is that it is a little girls sport. Nothing wrong with that.

Joe

Joe

tharrtell · Feb 6, 2004

Joesitz said:
Praise to be that we are heading toward a mature sport.

I totally agree, Joe. Watching Kimmie Meissner during the Nats exhibitions, I was impressed by her potential, but still saw her as a cute little girl. Cute is, well cute, but I'm much more impressed with maturity combined with athleticism. The stress of difficult jumps is hard on a fully mature body, but potentially damaging to a developing body. The further away we get from the little kids doing big jumps and retiring when they hit puberty because they can no longer do the tricks, the better, IMO.

I'd better stop now before I start sounding like a broken record!!

LittleAngelCora · Feb 6, 2004

ONE must be 15 by July 1st of the previous year.......in order to participate in Worlds & Olympics.

But can't one compete at Worlds even if one doesn't meet the age requirements as long as one has a medal from the previous year's Junior World Championships? This is how Sarah Hughes got to compete at Worlds in 1999 when she was only 13.

Courtney

IDLERACER · Feb 6, 2004

Possible, but highly improbable nationals podium of 2006:

1. Kimberly Meissner
2. Emily Hughes
[COLOR=008000]3. Danielle Kahle[/COLOR]

In other words, predicting what's going to happen in two years is not much different from predicting what's going to happen in twenty years.

show 42 · Feb 6, 2004

I too get irritated by these types of articles...I think it just gives the reporters something to do.

Too true, Eliza. The years inbetween the Olympics can be boring I guess for sports writers. 42

A lot can happen in two years

tharrtell

TriGirl Rinkside

Mathman

eliza88

guinevere

jesslily

Fossi

Ladskater

~ Figure Skating Is My Passion ~

jesslily

Joesitz (RIP)

lavender

icenut84

dizzydi

Callystarr

Kasey

Nadine

Joesitz (RIP)

tharrtell

TriGirl Rinkside

LittleAngelCora

IDLERACER

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