What I'd like to hear before the competition starts is a clear statement from the USFSA on how the 3rd lady to go to Sochi will be chosen. Will it be the 3rd place finisher of these Nationals, no if's and but's?
No, they have to leave themselves some wiggle room. E.g., what if Wagner wins the short program by 10 points and breaks her skate during the freeskate warmup or even during her program and has to withdraw (or finishes the program on a borrowed skate and places 4th or 5th)? Farfetched, but you'd hate to have the rules so ironclad that there would be no legal way to name her to the team under such circumstances.
If she just crumbles under pressure and/or injury, bombs one or both programs, and finishes 4th or 5th or lower, then she wouldn't make the team. E.g., Czisny in 2010.
Well back in the old days, when USFS was raking in $$$$ for their Nats before the Olympics, they had to make a distinction that it was not an Olympic Trials per se, otherwise USOC would want a piece of the pie.
That is still true, and that is why there is no official written guarantee that even the winner will go to the Olympics if eligible.
In practice, I think there is no chance that the national champions will not be named to the Olympic team. Unless they're not eligible: too young, not US citizens, haven't earned the required ISU minimum tech score at an international competition since last year.
But I can't remember any time where a skater medaled at Nats and was denied making the Olys. Oh wait, how about Zayak in 1980?
Zayak was 4th at 1980 Nationals. The third Olympic/Worlds slots were split between her and bronze medalist Sandy Lenz, similar to the split between Paul Wylie to Olympics and Mark Mitchell to Worlds in 1992.