Ashley Wagner and the Olympics

Sandpiper · May 22, 2014

But if clean I/K winning over clean D/W is far less ridiculous than two-fall Menshov winning over clean Chan, why the heck couldn't they just have I/K win then? I think there's something wrong with the Sochi judging, but your hypotheticals are absurd.

Also, Plushenko barely managed to outscore a sloppy Chan in the Team SP. If they were setting up Plushenko to win gold no matter what, don't you think they'd ding Chan harder for his mistakes, so that the individual result will look more acceptable? That's not even getting into how Kovtun/Voronov/Menshov would've scored (hint: worse).

So D/W and V/M were beating everyone endlessly for four years? It's the same thing with men. Chan's been kicking everyone's backsides for the past four years, even when his own backside is on the ice. The judges set up Hanyu as his rival, probably as a wake-up call that came way too late (hence why Chan lost). A clean Plushenko could win against a sloppy Chan, but certainly not the other way around. Kovtun/Menshov/Voronov... :laugh:

It'll look even more absurd than dance because the mistakes in singles are more obvious.

CanadianSkaterGuy · May 22, 2014

pangtongfan said:
I am 100% sure even had both Russians bombed they would have given it to Sotnikova at that point (if Julia had not bombed the short then probably her, or whichever Russian skated better/bombed less in the long). They would have just undermarked Kim and Kostner even more drastically than they already did, and given Sotnikova +3s on every element she stood up and 10s for almost every PCS.

Had Plushenko skated the mens event in Sochi he also would have won, even with falls and clean performances by Chan and Hanyu.

Your sense of hyperbole knows no bounds. If Sotnikova fell, there's no way she would get 10s for PCS, and her GOE would not have been +3's on all her elements. The Russians are dubious but there comes a point where the skater has to perform well, which Sotnikova did.

If the judging was as ridiculous as you've suggested, then why was Kostner placed ahead of Julia in the FS (and overall) after skating after her, before Sotnikova skated? According to your "logic" the judges should have undermarked Kostner enough to put her behind Julia, just in case Sotnikova had a complete meltdown (like the GPF) and thus maintain gold.

And clearly, even with a clean performance, Plushenko's score in the team SP would not have bested a clean Chan/Hanyu (or even Javier/Machida as Worlds results show).

I'm jaded about Russian judging in Sochi as well, but be sensible. The judging was dubious in that Sotnikova's artistic marks were similar to Kim's (and Lipnitskaia's higher than Mao's), but to say that if the Russian girls bombed while Kostner and Kim skated clean they still would have won is completely false. Saying it was slated for the Russians to win kind of trivializes the fact that Sotnikova did actually skate well, and wasn't simply handed the victory (or podium placement as it should have been) without working for it. The judges didn't land her jumps for her, she did.

kwanatic · May 22, 2014

Hyperbole indeed.

100% sure Pangtong? You're insisting that if Adelina landed 3 triples and tanked the rest of the way she still would have been held up for gold? That is flat out ridiculous. As I said in my previous post, Adelina made it easy for the judges to over-mark her b/c she skated so well. It's a lot easier to over-score a clean performance than it is to over-score a performance full of blatant and obvious errors. If she fell on her 2A-3T you think the judges would have given her +2s and +3s? Come on, get real.

fleeting · May 22, 2014

The difference in ice dance is that V/M and D/W won or placed second (because the other team won) in every competition they entered for an entire quad. It would have been incredibly suspect for I/K to win, especially when everyone was anticipating it was between V/M and D/W - which it was, by miles. D/W and V/M were untouchable, even with corrupt judging.

If there's any ice dance team who got underscored at Sochi, it's P/B to be quite honest. There was not a six point difference between I/K and P/B - and I do think I/K deserved the bronze. Just with not that much difference.

CanadianSkaterGuy · May 22, 2014

You're utterly preposterous if you think a skater who lands 4 triples will have the gold. Julia had 5 clean triples and came 5th. And if you think she would have been given higher PCS than a clean Yu Na or clean Kostner with 4 triples, you're absolutely crazy. If Sotnikova failed to cleanly execute 3 triples of the 7 she was credited for, that would have been a loss of at least 10 points, given that she would lose the GOE, plus get deducted -- a score of 214 points. Now if Kostner had skated after Sotnikova maybe they could have dropped her PCS, but Kostner had already skated so her scores are what we assume they would have been if Sotnikova bombed. 216 beats 214, so Kostner would have theoretically beaten Sotnikova (unless the judges gave Sotnikova 76+ PCS for a program with 4 triples -- and this isn't Plushenko being judged at Russian Nationals).

fleeting said:
The difference in ice dance is that V/M and D/W won or placed second (because the other team won) in every competition they entered for an entire quad. It would have been incredibly suspect for I/K to win, especially when everyone was anticipating it was between V/M and D/W - which it was, by miles. D/W and V/M were untouchable, even with corrupt judging.

Yeah, and Sotnikova hadn't won anything for 3 years, and then she won. Kim had won consistently (including the most recent Worlds). Kostner was a favourite and World champion the year before - she was inconsistent but many agreed that if she goes clean, she would likely win (and certainly when she upped her technical game to 7 triples). So for Kim to go clean and Kostner to go clean with 7 triples, and then lose to a skater who had never won any senior international event up until that point would have been as bad as I/K somehow beating V/M and D/W.

fleeting · May 22, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
Yeah, and Sotnikova hadn't won anything for 3 years, and then she won. Kim had won consistently (including the most recent Worlds). Kostner was a favourite and World champion the year before - she was inconsistent but many agreed that if she goes clean, she would likely win (and certainly when she upped her technical game to 7 triples). So for Kim to go clean and Kostner to go clean with 7 triples, and then lose to a skater who had never won any senior international event up until that point would have been as bad as I/K somehow beating V/M and D/W.

Trust me, I 100% agree. I didn't expect Sotnikova to even medal based on her previous world standings. I thought top five at best. I fully expected a Kim/Kostner/Asada podium in whatever order. No one anticipated Mao's SP, so I thought Gracie was a likely candidate for bronze. And then Sotnikova got incredibly overscored on her SP and her FS - and I like Adelina quite a lot as both a skater and a person.

There is no way Sotnikova or Lipnitskaya could've legitimately won with a fall or only five triples. Absolutely no way. And how Sotnikova was over both Asada and Kostner in PCS speaks absolute volumes.

Sandpiper · May 22, 2014

I agree Kim not skating consistently (and thus not dominating) hurt her in the judges' eyes, and probably cost her the gold. It's different from the V/M and D/W situation. But that doesn't mean Adelina could've won with two falls. It's not like I/K got their bronze with two falls.

You haven't responded to my question about the men: Chan dominated the quad every bit as much as D/W. Hanyu was creeping up on him in the end, and emerged as a front-runner. How on earth is two-fall Menshov supposed to win against clean Chan or Hanyu, when clean I/K couldn't win against D/W or V/M?

karne · May 22, 2014

*yawn*

Oh look, another thread derailed into Olympic argument. Get over it, Yunafans. She lost.

I think the USFSA's pipeline can get a bit weird at times. They put Joshua Farris into the JGP when he was 14 as a Novice champion, but then held him back from the Senior Grand Prix when he was 18. *shrugs*

Sandpiper · May 22, 2014

Actually, I think the fact that Chan can win with multiple falls speaks to how much clout he (and his skating) has. And the media (and fans) are already tearing Russia and Adelina to pieces. Can you imagine how much worse it would be if she fell? Or if two-fall Menshov won against clean Chan?

Also: Hanyu beat Plushenko in the Team SP by, what, 7 points? Why on earth would they allow that to happen, if they were setting Plush up to win no matter what?

CanadianSkaterGuy · May 22, 2014

pangtongfan said:
That clout went out the window this year. Hanyu won the LP at the grand prix final over a clean Chan with a fall, and gets virtually the same PCS even for much weaker choreography and less speed. Unless you are living under a rock you would notice the level of negativity towards Chan following the 2013 worlds reached a new stratospheric level and that probably had a large effect on the judges too. Anyway this is the Putin Olympics, so all that is usual goes out the window. This isnt about your non relevant deep down psycho-analysis of Chan, it is about the whole thing was a Russian party and nobody else was invited which you and a few usual suspects seem to be the only ones who still dont get. And it wasnt JUST the ladies event (or more limited still not just about Kim vs Sotnikova as the clueless karne is still fixated on). The Games opened with Julia getting +3s for tiny jumps that she barely landed in the team competition, and I&K nearly beating V&M in the team free dance, and continued with V&T missing both throws and still would have won by atleast 10 points over S&S skating cleanly with a throw triple axel (and that is even with S&S being held up in the scores to win the bronze with 2 falls too, making the insane level of overscoring of V&T even more scary), Stolbova & Klimov getting scores they had never approached before and couldnt either at the upcoming worlds, and went from there. I am tired of explaining this, so if you want to continue living in a fantasy world this Olympics wasnt a fixed Russian Olympics in figure skating than continue to enjoy your cute fantasy. I am done.

D&W winning the dance gold somehow now proving the Olympics wasnt fixed for the Russian figure skaters though as the new theory being presented in this thread though is such a I thank those of you who brought that up, as you gave me such a great laugh it was like getting 8 expensive comedy shows for free.

Oh, totally! That's precisely why Chan managed to earn World Record scores at TEB just 6 months ago, including a World Record total score that still stands. It's precisely why he had his two highest scoring freeskates this season, and precisely why he achieved his 1st and 3rd highest (essentially tied for his 2nd highest) total scores ever this season. It was an especially large effect the judges too, having given him PCS personal bests for both the SP and FS this season -- the highest PCS scores ever given to a man. Such a negative effect following Worlds, clearly. :sarcasm: The only stratospheric level of anything is how deluded you are -- and the level of pathetically typical negativity you have towards Chan breached the stratosphere ages ago. :rolleye:

I think we agree that it was a fixed Russian Olympics that allowed a close-to-clean Sotnikova to beat Kim, with inflated GOE and PCS. But all of us except you rightfully acknowledge that Sotnikova at least skated well enough to "merit" over-scoring -- and anyone with half a brain, and who can do basic math knows if Sotnikova had a FS with just 4 triples, there's no way she would have won (at the minimum, she would have lost to Kostner who had already skated)... I mean, Lipnitskaia was only 5th and she had 5 triples so I don't follow your reasoning how Sotnikova would win with 4 (not that it ever is easy to follow). :laugh:

Although you're known for hyperbolic crap (e.g. saying Chan wins with 5 falls), so it's hardly unexpected. I don't get why you're whining about it since you supposedly "won $8,000" off Sotnikova. :agree: :rolleye:

Sandpiper · May 22, 2014

Pangtongfan, I do agree with the spirit of your post. I do very much think the judging was biased toward Russian skaters. I'm appalled by the way some Yuna fans (not all!) are treating Adelina, but even now, if you shoved me on the judges' panel and forced me to decide, I would give the gold to Yuna Kim.

While I've found many of your analyses interesting, I simply cannot agree with your post above. You speak in huge, sweeping generalities without addressing the specific points I--and other posters--brought up. If a Russian girl would've won even with 3-4 triples, why did Yulia score lower than Carolina despite landing 5 triples? What would they do if Adelina bombed?

Also, I agree Chan was no longer the untouchable golden boy by Sochi--but that doesn't mean he'll lose skating cleanly to two-fall Menshov. Why did Plush end up 7 points behind Hanyu in the team event, and barely ahead of a sloppy Chan? If the judging was so biased in his favour, why didn't Plush at least win that short program? How is any of this compatible with two-fall Plush--let alone two-fall Menshov!--winning over clean Chan or Hanyu?

Antilopa · May 22, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
I think we agree that it was a fixed :

no, I don't agree.
I thought it is about Ashley and Usfs, but this is another IhateAdelinaandRussia thread.

jenaj · May 22, 2014

concorde said:
In 2011, USFS "upped" the Juvenile cut-off. Now it is “under age 14 as of Sept. 1 prior to the regional championships.”

For ladies, the issue is puberty and how it shifts the weight. I was told that when a girl turns 14, she should not expect to gain any more jumps. She can polish what she has in her arsenal but do not expect to add any more.

I would love to see someone prove this wrong.

CanadianSkaterGuy · May 23, 2014

Antilopa said:
no, I don't agree.
I thought it is about Ashley and Usfs, but this is another IhateAdelinaandRussia thread.

True. I think Ashley was initially outraged by the low scoring she got in Sochi as well as the marks the Russians were getting -- these are girls she outscored on PCS earlier in the season, who were getting monstrous PCS (Sotnikova's PCS was 10 points higher in Sochi than TEB). Julia's PCS for a clean Skate Canada FS was 10 points higher compared to her flawed Sochi FS with 70 points PCS. I agree that their programs improved but that jump over the course of a few months is hardly worthy. I mean, the TR/CH marks alone were much higher than the start of the season, even though the programs didn't have any significant changes. And all of a sudden Lip's SS goes from 7.61 at Skate Canada to 8.68 in Sochi... and Sotnikova's SS goes from 7.68 at Cup of China to 9.18 in Sochi?!

Even if you look at their Euro PCS - Julia skated cleanly in Euros and her PCS was 2 points less than her flawed Sochi FS. Sotnikova skated pretty well in Euros and her PCS jumped 5 points going to Sochi.

As far as this killing Ashley's career? No way. But it's funny how now we'll never see Sotnikova score PCS less than 70 after scoring 74 in Sochi, no matter how she skates. Whereas Ashley will be pressed to Just like Julia's PCS will likely always be higher than Wagner's no matter how cleanly Wagner skates, even though I think many would argue Wagner has better skating overall compared to Lipnitskaia (jumps and spins aside).

YLFan · May 23, 2014

In general scores were high for everyone. Take Kostner. 216 the highest score of her career at the Olympics. In the Worlds as scores continued to be high she got almost a 204 for not a very good performance.

Whereas her European 3rd place performance got a 191. So how is the World performance worth almost 13 points more? Its because in the Olympic season scores were bumped up.

CanadianSkaterGuy · May 23, 2014

YLFan said:
In general scores were high for everyone. Take Kostner. 216 the highest score of her career at the Olympics. In the Worlds as scores continued to be high she got almost a 204 for not a very good performance.

Whereas her European 3rd place performance got a 191. So how is the World performance worth almost 13 points more? Its because in the Olympic season scores were bumped up.

Kostner's score was WELL deserved at the Olympics. She pulled out a 3F+3T in the SP and had a clean FS with 7 triples. 216 points was well deserved as the highest score of her career because both performances were the best performances of her career by far up until that point.

Her sublime SP at Worlds was part of the reason she cleared 200 points. But it's obviously true her PCS at Worlds were undeserved for that FS - it was a personal best PCS for her.

Worst PCS disasters this season on the women's side:

- Sotnikova getting PCS higher than Kostner and on par with Kim in Sochi
- Kostner's getting a career personal PCS best Worlds FS with only 3 triples
- Lipnitskaia's (at the time) personal PCS best at Cup of Russia FS, with only 3 triples
- Lipnitskaia's PCS being higher than Mao's in Sochi (and in spite of a fall/stepout, getting higher PCS than her team FS)
- Gold getting 6.5 points higher PCS in the individual FS with a fall, compared to her clean team FS
- Gold getting 4 points higher PCS in the Worlds FS with a downgraded fall/single/omitted triple, compared to her clean team FS in Sochi -- enough to beat Suzuki/Wagner
- Wagner's PCS being lower than Gold's PCS at Worlds (and this started in Sochi when Gold's PCS magically shot up for a poorer FS, but Wagner's stagnated).

NYscorp6 · May 23, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
Kostner's score was WELL deserved at the Olympics. She pulled out a 3F+3T in the SP and had a clean FS with 7 triples. 216 points was well deserved as the highest score of her career because both performances were the best performances of her career by far up until that point.

Her sublime SP at Worlds was part of the reason she cleared 200 points. But it's obviously true her PCS at Worlds were undeserved for that FS - it was a personal best PCS for her.

Worst PCS disasters this season on the women's side:

- Sotnikova getting PCS higher than Kostner and on par with Kim in Sochi
- Kostner's getting a career personal PCS best Worlds FS with only 3 triples
- Lipnitskaia's (at the time) personal PCS best at Cup of Russia FS, with only 3 triples
- Lipnitskaia's PCS being higher than Mao's in Sochi (and in spite of a fall/stepout, getting higher PCS than her team FS)
- Gold getting 6.5 points higher PCS in the individual FS with a fall, compared to her clean team FS
- Gold getting 4 points higher PCS in the Worlds FS with a downgraded fall/single/omitted triple, compared to her clean team FS in Sochi -- enough to beat Suzuki/Wagner
- Wagner's PCS being lower than Gold's PCS at Worlds (and this started in Sochi when Gold's PCS magically shot up for a poorer FS, but Wagner's stagnated).

Say what you will, but the international judges seem to prefer the overall skating of Gracie over Ashley, not just the technical merit.

CanadianSkaterGuy · May 23, 2014

NYscorp6 said:
Say what you will, but the international judges seem to prefer the overall skating of Gracie over Ashley, not just the technical merit.

Not necessarily. Wagner outscored Gracie's PCS in the SP in Sochi and in Saitama. But in the FS, Ashley's PCS was lower. In the FS, Gold's PCS was about a point higher than Wagner, which is pretty inexplicable given her visible errors. It seems Wagner's program wasn't to the judges liking (or Gold's program very much to the judges' liking), but it's not obvious that Gold's overall skating is preferred to Ashley. With the right program, Wagner could probably crack the high 60's in PCS.

flyushka · May 23, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
Not necessarily. Wagner outscored Gracie's PCS in the SP in Sochi and in Saitama. But in the FS, Ashley's PCS was lower. In the FS, Gold's PCS was about a point higher than Wagner, which is pretty inexplicable given her visible errors.

I didn't find that inexplicable. Gracie was pretty shaky in the SP; you could see how her nerves were affecting her knee bend and edges. Even though she made errors in the FS, I thought she was actually really "on" during that skate and did much better in that regard. Same for the difference in her PCS between the team FS and the individual FS. I kind of thought Ashley's skating skills were weaker than the other girls in the top flight.

CanadianSkaterGuy · May 23, 2014

flyushka said:
I didn't find that inexplicable. Gracie was pretty shaky in the SP; you could see how her nerves were affecting her knee bend and edges. Even though she made errors in the FS, I thought she was actually really "on" during that skate and did much better in that regard. Same for the difference in her PCS between the team FS and the individual FS. I kind of thought Ashley's skating skills were weaker than the other girls in the top flight.

Sorry, I don't care how much of a difference a skater does between the team FS and individual FS... 6.5 points is a ridiculous jump. The only PCS category that should significantly increase if a skater is really "on" is interpretation and performance (a performance with a fall deserves less than a clean performance, especially if it's a week apart... the overall program wouldn't be so magically improved that a week later, the skater could fall and score higher than when they went clean a week earlier).

Considering she fell in her individual FS, how did Gold's skating skills improve from 7.82 in the team FS to 8.57 in the individual FS? How did her transitions go from 7.43 to 8.25? How did her choreography go from 7.75 to 8.64 for essentially the exact same program?!

How does Kostner get a PCS personal best for 3 triples, a fall, and two popped jumps... higher PCS than her clean Olympic FS with 7 triples?!

Ashley Wagner and the Olympics

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