Ashley Wagner and the Olympics

[Sam-Skwantch]

What say you about all this Ashley?

http://cdn.rsvlts.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Ashley-Wagner-Meme-630x350.jpg

 

[skatedreamer]

^ Poor Ashley. It's looking like that photo is going to haunt her to the end of her days. Sheesh. :disapp:

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Kostner, Kim, Asada, and many others actually scored much lower than they deserved to at the Olympics; in conjuction with a select few such as Sotnikova, Lipnitskaya, and Gold scoring far far too high for how they skated. Kostner's world scores you refer to (even if those were too high) is yet another example of this. Her score at worlds should have been lower, and the Olympics quite a bit higher.

I don't think they were grossly underscored so much as the Russians/Gold were far too overscored as you said. Kostner was underscored by 1-2 PCS points, Kim was just about right for her PCS, Asada was underscored by about 3 points of PCS (I mean, Julia with a fall and UR stepout beating Mao's PCS was absolutely outrageous).

IMO, overall PCS should have gone like:
Kostner: 74-75
Kim: 74-75
Asada: 73-74
Sotnikova: 69-70
Lipnitskaia: 67-68 (generous given her errors and generally lacking the spark of her team FS)
Wagner: 67-68
Suzuki: 65-66 (which she got)
Gold: 64-65 (bear in mind she scored 61.89 for a clean team FS, so even higher PCS of 64-65 with a fall is generous)

Overall, Sotnikova should have lost to Kim and Kostner (which is pretty obviously the consensus among most of us, though not all). Kim vs. Kostner could have gone either way (I preferred Kostner's performance more and thought she should be the OGM). Lipnitskaia should have certainly lost to Mao. Wagner should have still been 7th (although with slightly higher marks) and Gold should have still been 4th given Mao's SP (but much closer to Mao overall).

 

[flyushka]

Sorry, I don't care how much of a difference a skater does between the team FS and individual FS... 6.5 points is a ridiculous jump. The only PCS category that should significantly increase if a skater is really "on" is interpretation and performance (a performance with a fall deserves less than a clean performance, especially if it's a week apart... the overall program wouldn't be so magically improved that a week later, the skater could fall and score higher than when they went clean a week earlier).

Not at all, skating skills can definitely be affected in a bad way when someone is nervous and tight, and can be way better than usual when a skater is on. See, I don't know, Slutskaya in the 2002 Olympic SP vs. the FS, for example. And you know skating skills go a long way in determining all the PCS categories, rightly or wrongly. Then you got the final-flight-in-the-Olympics boost. And then there's different judges on the panels, who all see things differently and control their scores differently. I mean, what's the difference between a 7.75 and an 8.25? None of this is quantifiable or scientific even if it pretends to be. All you need is a few heavy-handed judges and then you get an extra point across the board, and voila, a 6.5 point boost. My point though, was that Gracie probably deserved to be knocked down in PCS a bit in the SP but to beat Ashley there in the LP. What difference does it make who scored what a week earlier if the scores make sense relative to each other on that night?

Kostner, Kim, Asada, and many others actually scored much lower than they deserved to at the Olympics; in conjuction with a select few such as Sotnikova, Lipnitskaya, and Gold scoring far far too high for how they skated.

You don't say! I never heard that opinion before!

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

^ Poor Ashley. It's looking like that photo is going to haunt her to the end of her days. Sheesh. :disapp:

No way. I love that Ashleyjust doesn't care. She will tell or show you how she feels and I think it's great. Why hold it in? She is in no way trying to be some princess after all. This fire may help keep her going in the end.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

I said it before and I'll say it again. If Ashley becomes the #1 American next year I won't be surprised one bit :yes:

 

[YLFan]

But that would just be an indication of how weak the American girls are imo

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Ashley has great Skating skills and Presentation. She got bronze at GPF for a reason.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Yeah since almost nobody was there, and most who were skated poorly. Mao had one of her worst outings of the year and won easily, and a subpar Julia very easily beat her too.

My point isn't that Ashley is going to sweep the world with a huge comeback but if she just goes clean for one whole event she will medal and maybe win it if her competitors fail. She has weapons too. Her career isn't over although dinner may have already been served and its getting late.

By the way 5 out of the current top ten ranked skaters were there.

 

[R.D.]

But that would just be an indication of how weak the American girls are imo

Exactly.

It's true, though, let's be honest. Although I will say to Wagner's credit that even in the 2nd or 3rd position, if she can keep up her consistency we will continue to need her to help keep 3 spots at least in the interim. True, Gold and Edmunds could have done it on their own this year, but it's always nice to not have the pressure solely on 2 skaters.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Her FS at Worlds showed me she still has something left. Agree on her chances at Worlds but it would be a feel good moment for all.

 

[R.D.]

Wagner's problem is really in the SP. She MUST find a way to get to 70+ because otherwise she won't be able to make up ground in the FS no matter how good she does. That's the kind of score it will take to set yourself up for the medals these days. If she can't get there, or doesn't think she can, she may as well quit now (unless she's content with a lower top-10 ranking, which I highly doubt)

 

[desertskates]

Her FS at Worlds showed me she still has something left. Agree on her chances at Worlds but it would be a feel good moment for all.

I'm excited to see how she does this coming season without the pressure of the Olympics. Hopefully she gets programs she loves and will play to her strengths.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Her FS at Worlds showed me she still has something left. Agree on her chances at Worlds but it would be a feel good moment for all.

Agreed. She got a personal best at Worlds... and probably deserving of 130+. There's something about her re-used S&D FS that the judges weren't really liking this year, although her SP when skated cleanly can rack up almost 70 points (probably over 70 next season if she does a clean SP again, like how she did at the GPF). Hopefully with a fresh FS she can pull in higher scores.

Usually the Worlds the season after the Olympics is a bit of a slump so there are a lot of skaters who could skate solidly and medal. Obviously Ando didn't have to deal with a wave of Russian babies, but you never know who will show up next year. Every skater has shown inconsistency at some point. If the closest to consistency is Julia and she bombed her FS at CoR, Olympics (indiv), and Worlds, it's still up in the air. I mean, given Kostner/Sotnikova at the beginning of the season nobody could have imagined that they would skate as well as they did in Sochi.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I'm excited to see how she does this coming season without the pressure of the Olympics. Hopefully she gets programs she loves and will play to her strengths.

Yeah, that's what I want to see most from her... she can really take risks this season. She's established, but not really a heavy favourite, so she needs to do something different and exciting from all the other girls who will undoubtedly still choose classical/princessy/warhorses. The introduction of lyrics can actually play in her favour.

 

[Sandpiper]

^^I love how you referenced Ando. I was thinking earlier, when someone mentioned Ashley becoming the next Akiko Suzuki (skating for many years but rarely getting on the podium)... and I thought, or perhaps she could be the next Miki Ando? Of course, Ando at her best was a more talented jumper than Ashley. But perhaps Ashley could sneak onto the podium when the favourites falter (I dunno if she can win two Worlds like Miki did, but podium isn't out of the question).

 

[Sandpiper]

^Sorry, it definitely sounded like I was downplaying Miki's abilities. For the record, I like Miki very much and I'm really sad she's gone. She was probably among the top 5 best female jumpers of all time. And I think she was a good performer in her own right, despite what hardcore Yuna fans might say.

But Miki also had to win her World titles while going up against Yuna and Mao, the Titans of her era. I don't think it's inconceivable for Ashley to make it to a Worlds bronze when favourites falter, in this post-Yuna era (I expect Mao to return, but I'm worried about what the edge/UR calls will do to her). I noted that outright winning while be very difficult, so yes, you're right. My comparison was only insofar as, "Can move up when favourites falter" (up for Miki means winning; for Ashley, it probably means a medal).

 

[R.D.]

Wagner is more of a Murakami than an Ando if we're going to make Japanese ladies comparisons. I can see similarity to Suzuki as well but I still think Suzuki is a (slight) step up.

I'm skeptical about Wagner being able to stay competitive and/or healthy throughout the next quad. It will be up to her team to formulate the best strategy for her moving forward.

Don't forget her competition domestically as well. She is no longer the top American - Gold has surpassed her and except in the event of a meltdown (or injury), will remain ahead of her throughout. I wouldn't rule out a surprise or two as well. Edmunds is still a question mark, hitting prime growing season...but as is, she's knocking on Wagner's door as well. And of course, there's Nagasu...although of the same generation, she does have an age advantage on Wagner (and perhaps new motivation, but that remains to be seen).

 

[flyushka]

Next year should be interesting, and I agree the post-Olympic season can be unpredictable and fun. I definitely wouldn't have pegged Ando as the 2007 WC after her Torino disaster; I thought it'd be 100% between Kim and Asada. I do think it'll be an uphill battle for Ashley though - others coming up the ranks are more talented technically and the two-footing thing has been a lifelong habit; I don't see it going away at this stage. I also think the Russian skaters will likely have an advantage at Worlds due to the bloodbath internal competition they have going on - i.e., they have more top-5 skaters than they can send, so nobody can expect to phone it in and make it out of Russia. Kind of a Hunger Games, survival-of-the-fittest scenario. (at least, I think so - I don't think Sotnikova can afford a Hughes-esque post-OGM season and expect to make the World team over Lip, Pogo and Radionova, although that'd be awkward for the Russian fed!) In comparison, the three American girls look pretty safe as of right now in terms of making the World team, so that same kind of drive doesn't have to be there. But maybe the desire to get to the top of the US pecking order will be enough. And things could always change re: injuries, possibly multiple slumping Russkies, slippery ice, etc. So yes, there is always a chance!

 

[Mista Ekko]

Ashley has an Olympic Medal now.





The end. :agree: