Is Sasha's Road to Torino Paved with Easy Gold? or ...

The ladies event at the 2006 Olympics has the potential to be one of the greatest finals of all time (right now). Kwan, Cohen, Arakawa, Suguri, Slutskaya, Ando, etc.....they all seem to be probable contenders. I can't wait. Will Sasha finally pull it all together for 2005 & 2006? Will Arakawa maintain her Dortmund form and conquer the world? Will Slutskaya make a formidable return (ala 1999-2000)? Will Kwan add the difficultly she needs to compliment her stellar artistry (sorry, had to factor my bias into this one....and yes, I'm proudly worshipping my sacred Kwan hair-doll as I am typing this)? Will Ando improve her presentation enough to consistently challenge for Gold? Sorry, but the situation is far too unpredictable. At this point in the game, anything could happen and most likely will. I will tell you what I think after the 2006 GPF! I'm hoping all of the ladies mentioned will work extremely hard to better all aspects of their skating so that we might enjoy an unforgetable night of figure skating. And.....my answer to the main question is: The ice is extremely slippery...Sasha's path to Italy is one with absolutely no garuntees.

bronxgirl said:

Easy Gold? Only if Robin can become the Sigmund Freud of sports psychologists

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You mean if Robin starts using cocaine, making up case studies about Little Hans, telling Sasha the reason she keeps making mistakes is because she has weenie envy, and starts smoking cigars, Sasha might have a chance?! Koo-uhl!

J/K, natch. But seriously, I absolutely know who is going to win the '06 ladies OGM in figure skating. Some skater who is 14 years old right now. Believe me, this is all too tempting for Dame Fate. With a group like this two years before the Olympics, Fate is just dying to get in there and mess things up big time.

Now start naming 14-year-olds who have the right genes, the right jumps, and the right luck, and then I'll start guessing.

Actually, I hope it's Michelle so the journey begun in '98 can be completed. Then Michelle can go to the top of that volcano, throw the gold medal into its molten core (yeah, right) and save the world from evil.
Rgirl

Sasha certainly has the potential to win the OGM. However, judging from the previous two Olympics, the favorite does not always win. I know many people will scream at me for calling Sasha the favorite. I am not her fan (it's not the opposite either), but my prediction is that she will win worlds 2005, and will automatically be the favorite for the 2006 Olympics. She seems to achieve more with Robin Wagner than with any of her previous coaches (even though she had more GP wins with TT).

Now about the competition-

My guess is that the Russians are not going to be a factor in 2006. The main reason is that there is no young Russian lady that can challenge for the top spot, the way Irina did in 2002. As much as I would love to see Irina skate great, her health and her age may make it very difficult. I don't see Sokolova and Volchkova as top medal contenders, inspite of Sokolova's world silver last year. I think she had a great worlds in 2003 but it won't happen again. She can do the 3-3's but I don't see her competing against Kwan and Cohen in presentation. If there is a wild card from Russia, I would say it is Julia Soldatova, who recently became a Russian citizen but could not go to worlds this year.

Isn't it interesting that I said 'Kwan and Cohen' and not 'Cohen and Kwan'? In my mind Kwan is still the queen of the ice. She pulls it off when it counts. That did not happen in the 2002 Olympics, but it could happen in 2006 when she will have less pressure from others, and even from herself.

I will deal with the Europeans first, since there are fewer contenders there (that's a scary thought- a whole continent having fewer contenders than tiny Japan?). Carolina Kostner will provide a very serious competition to Sasha. Not only is she talented, but she will also be skating before the home crowd (remember Sarah Hughes in SLC?). She can compete with the Japanese ladies in the 3-3-2 department. She is likely to develop artistically and she has great speed on ice. She also happens to share the nationality with the president of ISU. Julia Sebestyen has splendid jumps and she is an excellent skater. However, the judges don't seem to respect her. If she gets a difficult 3-3 combo (even two may be needed) it could make her a medal contender. Otherwise she will be pushed down to make room for the jumping beans. I have not watched Pavuk, so I cannot comment on her.

Now the emerging Japanese ladies. I would be absolutely thrilled to see Yukina Ota grab the gold in Torino. However, she may not even make the Japanese Olympic team unless she improves her jumps and the difficulty of her jump combinations. IMO the Japanese fed should plan on adding her to their team regardless. At times the judges have gone for the jumps (1998, 2002). At other times have gone for the artistry (1994, and to some extent 1992). Since the Japanese have such a deep talent pool, they should plan on having Ando and Ota on their Olympic team to cover the whole spectrum. Does that mean the world champ Arakawa would be left out? I doubt it, unless she bombs at next year's worlds. Actually Shizuka has both- artistry and the jumps, and if she improves her expresssion (very likely in the TT camp), the Japanese will be crazy to leave her out. She is the only 'proven' Japanese lady right now. Sadly, I don't see Fumie making the team unless it is to replace Ota. Fumie has beaten Sasha but, like others of her generation, she will need those difficult jumps just to make the Japanese team. Right this moment, Fumie and Shizuka are the only ones that can beat Sasha. However, in 2 years both Ando and Ota (and probably a few others) could challenge Sasha. After this year's worlds I will be very surprised if Ando did not work hard on her artistry. I don't see Yoshie Onda challenging Sasha, unless she lands a triple axel-triple toe combination. Neither do I see the Asada sisters being ready by 2006. However, there may be half a dozen Japanese young ladies waiting in the wings at this point to grab an Olympic berth.

I have almost come to the end of the discussion and I have not even mentioned the Canadian ladies. I have watched Cynthia Phaneuf and I liked her potential. However, I want to see her make great strides artistically, and be consistent with her jumps, in order to challenge for the top spot at Turin. Of course she can develop a lot in 2 years. Whether she has the mental toughness or not, has to be seen. I have heard a lot about Joannie Rochette, but I have not seen her skate, so it will be futile for me to comment on her. So right now I am going to hold off my prediction for the Canadian ladies.

Going back to the original question- Sasha's path to the OGM will NOT be an easy one, starting from the US nationals. In the past, winning the USN used to be the toughest thing. Not so anymore. In fact when Michelle won the USN in 1998, most people thought that all she had to do was skate two clean programs in Nagano to win the gold. My gut feeling is that the US ladies will still rule, but the chances of a Japanese OGM will be strong for the first time since 1992. The chances of a European OGM will be strong for the first time since 1988 (I counted Irina S. as 'Russian' and not 'European; I also put Oksana in 94 under 'Russian' rather than 'European).

If I were to group all the 2006 gold medal possibilities in the ladies event, I would group them as follows:

Group I (high probability):

Sasha, Shizuka, Michelle, Carolina, Miki-
Any of these 5 can win the OGM (I may have jinxed them ALL!)

Group II (medium probability):

Kimmie M., Yukina Ota, Irina S., Katy, Fumie, Beatrisa (I added her later when I realized I had forgotten her) -
Irina and Fumie may seem too old compared to the others in this group. I have to go with the younger skaters, only because of the jumps. I like Irina's chances better than Fumie's, although Fumie is a lovely skater, because Irina is a (naturally) stronger jumper.

Group III (low probability):

Jenny K., Julia Sebestyen, Yoshie Onda, Cynthia P., Pavuk (based on what I heard)- only Phaneuf and Pavuk are young enough to have a realistic chance. The reason I put them in this group is that I have not watched them (Phaneuf just once, and Pavuk never). I went with trusted names like Irina and Fumie in the medium probability group.

Vash

Vash01 said:

Sadly, I don't see Fumie making the team unless it is to replace Ota. Fumie has beaten Sasha but, like others of her generation, she will need those difficult jumps just to make the Japanese team.

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I just got my BOI magazine and they had a Fumie interview. She hasn't had a 3/3 and knows she needs one. They are breaking down her jump technique and making her relearn them. She is quoted as saying that she had some terrible technique problems with her jumps that prevent her from doing 3/3's and hopes to have the new jump technique in place by Moscow Worlds. I'm not ready to count her out yet. It sounds like she has been working on the new technique since 2003 Worlds and she may just get them back for 2005.

I'm not too worried about Michelle's lutz problems. Between boot issues, new coach, starting to train later in the season and working on new jump technique she has done remarkably well this season. Artunian seems to be a great choice for her.

I do doubt Irina's chances. I think she looked much better at Marshall's, but I do wonder if that last little bit will be too hard to attain due to her health issues.

I'll withhold judgement on Sasha until I get to see the effects of Robin's coaching.

I don't know what to say about the rest of the gang coming up from Europe and Japan. I am looking forward to the battles however. This should be an interesting couple of seasons.

OT, but there are several skaters saying they had boot problems this year (other than the well documented Timmy). My mind is blanking, but I think Yukina Ota or Mikki Ando mentioned her feet turning black & blue from her boots. I'll have to go back to check the BOI magazine. Michelle is taking 5 days off COI to get a boot issue fixed so her problems aren't really over. What in the world is happening this year?

Another OT, but this months BOI is just full of some great interviews. I love this issue.

mpal2 said:

OT, but there are several skaters saying they had boot problems this year (other than the well documented Timmy). My mind is blanking, but I think Yukina Ota or Mikki Ando mentioned her feet turning black & blue from her boots. I'll have to go back to check the BOI magazine. Michelle is taking 5 days off COI to get a boot issue fixed so her problems aren't really over. What in the world is happening this year?

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My, mpal, that IS scary and random...but better now than in 20 months or so, I guess

ITA about Michelle and Rafael; mulling it over more, I'm really psyched to see her competitive fire come through, backed up by the focused training and new program preparation over the summer, coming back hot in 2004-2005 to hush all the doubtful speculation. I don't see her retiring after those Worlds, if only because, how're you gon' go retire after finding that gem, that perfect coach, girl?!? She may just be heading toward her all-time peak, on both the technical and artistic fronts, and that's really saying something, given all she's accomplished already. That's the beauty of figure skating as an individual sport; the competitor is locked in this struggle with him/herself to be the best s/he can be.

Sarah

Vash01 said:

Kimmie M., Yukina Ota, Irina S., Katy, Fumie -

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I don't know about Meissner and Taylor, really. This is, after all, the 2006 Games we are talking about, not 2010. I doubt these two will even make the world team for at least the next 3 or 4 years to come, let alone winning the OGM in '06 :\

When was the last time that ladies was so wide open?

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That's impossible to say at this point. Nagano was all about Tara vs. Michelle, but if anyone in 95 or 96 had said this, they would have been committed. Who here predicted in 82 that Sarajevo would be a Roz/Kat showdown? Were Kristi and Nancy predicted to go 1,2 in the SP back after 90 worlds? Who here left 96 worlds thinking "Gosh that Lu Chen is gonna self-destruct next year, I just know it! She can kiss that Oly title goodbye." ?

Rgirl said:

You mean if Robin starts using cocaine, making up case studies about Little Hans, telling Sasha the reason she keeps making mistakes is because she has weenie envy, and starts smoking cigars, Sasha might have a chance?! Koo-uhl!

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Of course! That's exactly what I meant!

We seem to be avoiding the "Road" to Torino (Turin).

There is a PreOly Worlds - I think we decided that 70 per cent who win this win the OGM. But there is 30 pe cent who do not.

There is also 2005 GP and GP Finals. There could be 3 gold medals there.

There are the 2006 Country Nationals.

And there is the final say by the Federations.

Can any skater win gold in all the events? I doubt it.

Joe

There is a PreOly Worlds - I think we decided that 70 per cent who win this win the OGM. But there is 30 pe cent who do not.

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16 out of 20 is really more 80%.

Up until 1972 when there were figures and no SP, it was 100%.

From 76 to 88, with figures, a SP and triple jumps, only 25%.

From 92 to 02, with SP and triple jumps but no figures, 75%.

My conclusion: none of this probably means anything. If SLC taught me one thing, it's that who ever is best for those 4 minutes wins, regardless of resume.

There is one statistic for the Ladies OGM that has been 100% true: every single winner had been on the World podium previous to winning the OGM.

That would seem to eliminate Meissner and Taylor, who will not be old enough to compete at Senior Worlds until 2006.

Sasha could have been the first in 2002 to win the OGM without skating at worlds, and she came very close. It is not an impossibility. What Kim and Katy have is youth- they will be 16 in 2006. That may be enough if either makes huge strides next season.

What I learned from SLC is that youth and homefield advantage combined with triple-triple combinations (even imperfect ones) is a golden combination. Carolina has it all. I see her as one of the major contenders in Turin.

Vash

Sasha came close--but no cigar. Sarah had won World bronze the year before her Olympic win.

I think it would be pretty hard for Kimmie or Katy to win the OGM with no Senior experience with the possible exception of a Senior GP event or two. Besides that, they could potentially be feeling the effects of the Puberty Monster in the next year or so, and that could throw one or both of them for a loop.

mpal2 said:

Michelle is taking 5 days off COI to get a boot issue fixed so her problems aren't really over.

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Well, she's not *taking* the five days off, the whole tour is on a break. She has had pretty bad boot problems from what I've read. One boot completely broke down, and she had to skate with it all taped up. Then she used two different boots (one from Nationals, and one from Worlds). That didn't work too well, so she started only skating one perfomance in COI Tour II. This is why her jumps have been off (mostly the lutz) during the tour. Apparently, though, her feet have not been injured becasue of this.

As for the gold on 2006, my bets are always on Michelle, but right now there are about seven contenders.

It seems to me that in some olympics there is such pressure that the one to stay on their feet or just skate more cleanly gets the gold... and in others there is a real fight for the top spots.... both are really entertaining to watch. I prefer it when everyone skates their best though.

Originally posted by Vash01

Now about the competition-

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That was a superb analysis Vash. As usual, you really know the essential factors about skaters. OT--I don't think I ever told you how much I love your compilation tapes. I have had many happy hours watching a whole tape of Paul Wylie, Ilia Kulik, G&G (two tapes!), Mishkutenok&Dmitriev, Oksana, and Irina. I hope you're continuing to compile tapes on current skaters.


Originally posted by mpal2

OT, but there are several skaters saying they had boot problems this year (other than the well documented Timmy). My mind is blanking, but I think Yukina Ota or Mikki Ando mentioned her feet turning black & blue from her boots. I'll have to go back to check the BOI magazine. Michelle is taking 5 days off COI to get a boot issue fixed so her problems aren't really over. What in the world is happening this year?

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I think the high number of boot problems are due to more and more men skaters doing more and more quads and quad combos, pushing themselves to do different jumps as quads, ie, sal, Lutz, loop, and combos such as 4/3/3/2; and for the ladies, doing quads, 3/3s, 3/3/2s, and some pushing themselves to do more than one kind of quad and a few trying quad combos. I don't think that boots designed for plain old triples can hold up under practicing the kind of jumps listed above. We may see only a few doing such jumps and jump combos in competition, but you can bet a whole bunch of skaters are doing a lot of them in practice almost every day. That's why I think changes in boot design such as the hinged skate boot are t. I'm not saying the hinged boot is the answer or some kind of panacea, but at least it's a start. To do the jumps skaters are trying today, they need boots designed to handle the increased and different kinds of forces and torque. I hope boot companies do more research and development of new boots designed for these jumps and do it fast. Also, I hope that skaters at least try them. Only skaters who can do these jumps can tell the designers if a particular new boot design is working. Also, I think different skaters will need different kinds of boots to suit their own anatomy.


Originally posted by bronxgirl

Of course! That's exactly what I meant!

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Being a Washington Heights Girl, I knew a Bronx Girl would know the real deal.

Rgirl

OK, I just went back and reviewed the BOI magazine. It wasn't Yukina Ota or Mikki Ando that had black and blue feet; it was Shizuka. I would imagine that you are right Rgirl, the skaters pushing the edge on jumps and jump combos really seem to be suffering when it comes to boots.

It just seems that the boot complaint has really surfaced this past season and I can't imagine what it's going to be like in the next 2 as people gear up for the Olympics. I wonder how many will actually make it there now.

Thanks for the extra details Lucy, I wasn't sure if Michelle had to leave the tour or if they were on break. I'm glad to hear that she isn't injured.

mpal2 said:

Thanks for the extra details Lucy, I wasn't sure if Michelle had to leave the tour or if they were on break. I'm glad to hear that she isn't injured.

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Me, too!

Thank you Rgirl for the nice compliment. I am glad to hear you are enjoying the compilation tapes. I am taking a break from compilations right now, but I have planned to make some in the future. It is so much easier to watch skating when you have the programs on one tape (or a few tapes, rather than 100-150).

BTW I did not say much about Biatrisa Liang in my post. I added her name later. I just forgot about her (how could I?). She could give Sasha a run for her money, if she stays healthy. She has already had injury problems. I would hate to see her go the way of NNN.

Vash

Joesitz

Twice everyone thought Michelle would skate away with the gold and twice two "surprises" came out of nowhere - one named Tara, the other Sarah. No one can predict what will happen, but I don't think Sasha's road to Turino is an easy skate. She will have the skaters you mentioned on her heals - "hungry" for the gold medal. As we have seen, anything can and will happen.