A Case for Mirai Nagasu

bobbob · Feb 20, 2017

chuckm said:
That would be great if Mirai always scored 194.95 in her international competitions. But this year she scored 176.77 at Lombardia, 190.11 at the Skate Canada Autumn Classic, 151.52 at Skate Canada, 180.33 at NHK and then 194.95 at 4CC. There isn't any pattern to it: she can skate great one time, and horribly the next.

And based on last year's Worlds scores, 194.95 would place Mirai TENTH, just like last year---IF she went and IF she were able to skate as well as she did at 4CC (and if, of course, the caller wasn't a nitpicker). Last year, her Worlds score dropped 7 points from her 4CC score for similar jump content.

But those scores are still higher than Karen or Mariah's so what's your point? I don't think Mirai will do amazing (as in top 6) at worlds or anything, but it's all relative.
Mirai's scores this year: 176.77, 190.11, 151.52, 180.33, 194.95
Karen: 162.08, 179.39, 178.45, 155.63, 166.82
Mirai's average score is like 10 points higher, and she scored over 180 three times, versus 0 times for Karen. Mirai clearly has way more potential and is more well liked by the international judges. If everyone skated their PBs, yes Mirai would probably be around 10th while Karen would be around 13th.

chuckm · Feb 20, 2017

To keep the 3 spots, the US needs a skater to finish at least 8th or better. If Mirai can't do that, then there is no justification for sending her to Worlds over Karen or Mariah.

Mariah scored 191.59 at SA---it is entirely possible that she could do better than that at Worlds. Mariah hasn't had that much international exposure (4CC was her first ISU championship event) and 6th was a respectable finish for her under the circumstances. 4CC was a valuable learning experience for her.

Looking back, Gracie Gold was 6th at 2013 4CC and went on to finish 6th at Worlds in her first try.

b-man · Feb 20, 2017

chuckm said:
That would be great if Mirai always scored 194.95 in her international competitions. But this year she scored 176.77 at Lombardia, 190.11 at the Skate Canada Autumn Classic, 151.52 at Skate Canada, 180.33 at NHK and then 194.95 at 4CC. There isn't any pattern to it: she can skate great one time, and horribly the next.

And based on last year's Worlds scores, 194.95 would place Mirai TENTH, just like last year---IF she went and IF she were able to skate as well as she did at 4CC (and if, of course, the caller wasn't a nitpicker). Last year, her Worlds score dropped 7 points from her 4CC score for similar jump content.

And Karen, who doesn't have a reliable 3-3, if she duplicated her international SB at worlds, would finish 13th. But, I am resigned to Mirai not going to worlds.

bobbob · Feb 20, 2017

chuckm said:
To keep the 3 spots, the US needs a skater to finish at least 8th or better. If Mirai can't do that, then there is no justification for sending her to Worlds over Karen or Mariah.

Mariah scored 191.59 at SA---it is entirely possible that she could do better than that at Worlds. Mariah hasn't had that much international exposure (4CC was her first ISU championship event) and 6th was a respectable finish for her under the circumstances. 4CC was a valuable learning experience for her.

Looking back, Gracie Gold was 6th at 2013 4CC and went on to finish 6th at Worlds in her first try.

Sure, Mariah could (though on any given day I say mirai does better) but I have my doubts about Karen. I do think it's worth an attempt to send Mirai because if skaters like Kaetlyn/Gabby falter (Mirai beat k at 4cc) and Mirai goes clean, she can get a top 8 finish. The main contenders above Mirai would be 3 russians, ashley, carolina, 2 japanese, gabby, katelyn, and Mirai has beaten and can beat some of these if she skates well and they mess up. Obviously there is no guarantee that if Mirai goes we will get 3 spots but there is a higher chance that we get three spots than with Karen, simply because Mirai scoring potential and average scores are about 10 points higher. I see you're trying to say that since both won't do enough to get three spots we should just resign to two spots, but I think we should send Mirai so we can have a fighting chance. Karen finished 12th at 4CC, do you think she will finish top 8 at worlds?

andromache · Feb 20, 2017

bobbob said:
But those scores are still higher than Karen or Mariah's so what's your point? I don't think Mirai will do amazing (as in top 6) at worlds or anything, but it's all relative.
Mirai's scores this year: 176.77, 190.11, 151.52, 180.33, 194.95
Karen: 162.08, 179.39, 178.45, 155.63, 166.82
Mirai's average score is like 10 points higher, and she scored over 180 three times, versus 0 times for Karen. Mirai clearly has way more potential and is more well liked by the international judges. If everyone skated their PBs, yes Mirai would probably be around 10th while Karen would be around 13th.

If Mirai skates to her full potential - like she did at 4CCs - the best we're looking at is 10th.

If Karen skates to her full potential - like she did at Nationals - the best we're looking at is probably 5th.

But if neither girl is likely to skate to her full potential (and if the girl who is slightly more consistent than the other can't score highly enough for that to make a difference anyway) then why reverse a decision that was made weeks ago?

These skaters have to trust their federation, and they have to trust that their federation won't renege on decisions that have already been made and announced. You think it's traumatizing to place in the top 3 at Nationals and not be named to the Olympic team? Imagine that times ten, if you place in the top 3 at Nationals, you ARE named to the team, but then the federation changes its mind. Horrific. I can't believe anyone wants that to happen.

In the future, USFS may reconsider its team selection process and wait to announce the team until after 4CCs, which wouldn't be an unreasonable thing to do.

Ares · Feb 20, 2017

berry8 said:
I would be glad at seeing Mirai at worlds... But realistically she won't be there :/
You could add the fact that she's currenlty training 3a which only 5 women have successfully landed in comp !!

7-8? (Ito, Asada, Harding, Meissner kinda but not in ISU competition, Nakano, Nelidina, Tuktamysheva, Kihira).

bobbob · Feb 20, 2017

andromache said:
If Mirai skates to her full potential - like she did at 4CCs - the best we're looking at is 10th.

If Karen skates to her full potential - like she did at Nationals - the best we're looking at is probably 5th.

But if neither girl is likely to skate to her full potential (and if the girl who is slightly more consistent than the other can't score highly enough for that to make a difference anyway) then why reverse a decision that was made weeks ago?

These skaters have to trust their federation, and they have to trust that their federation won't renege on decisions that have already been made and announced. You think it's traumatizing to place in the top 3 at Nationals and not be named to the Olympic team? Imagine that times ten, if you place in the top 3 at Nationals, you ARE named to the team, but then the federation changes its mind. Horrific. I can't believe anyone wants that to happen.

In the future, USFS may reconsider its team selection process and wait to announce the team until after 4CCs, which wouldn't be an unreasonable thing to do.

What makes you think Karen's best is 5th....? Karen's Personal Best score is 179, a whopping 15 points lower than Mirai's. Karen's PB short is a 64 while Mirais is a 73, Karens PB fs is 121 vs Mirais 132. To be 5th, one would need a total score of around 210 (unless everyone bombs)... Did you mean 15th??? Karen's nationals skates would probably have scored a 185, well above her PB, INTERNATIONALLY once you add in all the URs and lower the PCS... Her clean FS at GPJPN which has one more triple than her Nationals FS didnt break 120.

narcissa · Feb 20, 2017

bobbob said:
What makes you think Karen's best is 5th....? Karen's Personal Best score is 179, a whopping 15 points lower than Mirai's. Karen's PB short is a 64 while Mirais is a 73, Karens PB fs is 121 vs Mirais 132. To be 5th, one would need a total score of around 210 (unless everyone bombs)... Did you mean 15th??? Karen's nationals skates would probably have scored a 185 INTERNATIONALLY once you add in all the URs and lower the PCS...

Yeah. Satoko Miyahara was 5th last year. With clean skates (one underrotation in the short).

andromache · Feb 20, 2017

bobbob said:
What makes you think Karen's best is 5th....? Karen's Personal Best score is 179, a whopping 15 points lower than Mirai's. Karen's PB short is a 64 while Mirais is a 73, Karens PB fs is 121 vs Mirais 132. To be 5th, one would need a total score of around 210 (unless everyone bombs)... Did you mean 15th??? Karen's nationals skates would probably have scored a 185, well above her PB, INTERNATIONALLY once you add in all the URs and lower the PCS... Her clean FS at GPJPN which has one more triple than her Nationals FS didnt break 120.

Karen's jumps (if clean) should garner good GOE, as should her spins. In addition, her choreo, skating skills, interpretation, and transitions should all be worth more than Mirai's. Messy skates have held down not only her TES, but her PCS. Clean skates (even with an underrotation or two) would up both of those considerably, or at least should, if judged fairly. A clean Mariah and a clean Karen both have higher ceilings than Mirai because of the quality of what they do, when they happen to do it well (which is only slightly less often than Mirai).

bobbob · Feb 20, 2017

andromache said:
Karen's jumps (if clean) should garner good GOE, as should her spins. In addition, her choreo, skating skills, interpretation, and transitions should all be worth more than Mirai's. Messy skates have held down not only her TES, but her PCS. Clean skates (even with an underrotation or two) would up both of those considerably, or at least should, if judged fairly. A clean Mariah and a clean Karen both have higher ceilings than Mirai because of the quality of what they do, when they happen to do it well (which is only slightly less often than Mirai).

In Karen's case which is never internationally...? (if that is what you are saying)

But.... Karen was perfect at GPJPN with one MORE triple than Nats (couple of URs which at Nats werent called) and she got more than 2 points less PCS than Mirai who was also largely clean but had 4 URs. Her total score was under 120 for a clean skate with a couple of underrotations. She did not garner really great GOE or PCS even though her skate was not messy at all.

Anyways Karen's a great skater I just think Mirai is better up to the task at the moment.

CoyoteChris · Feb 20, 2017

Mathman said:
Would it include pictures of a lot of eye-catching airplanes doing amazing tricks?

http://images.onset.freedom.com/ocregister/blogs/taxdollars.ocregister.com/n3n-3-300x240.jpg

Almost had a ride in a Stearman in flight school.... :bang:

OK, how about a Waco with a Jet engine strapped to the bottom? It can go straight up! That is amazing and eye catching...
http://s1217.photobucket.com/user/C...eno 2014/waco_zpse869460e.jpg.html?sort=3&o=2

Or Space shuttle commander/pilot "Hoot" Gibson lecturing about pieces of his blown up race engine? He is used to landing without engines, I guess...

http://s1217.photobucket.com/user/C...12/IMG_1467_zpstwny5h1m.jpg.html?sort=3&o=198
He was arrested for littering...or that was a rumor...
http://s1217.photobucket.com/user/C...genginesmall_zps801a9399.jpg.html?sort=3&o=45

Mirai like to fly, BTW....

drivingmissdaisy · Feb 20, 2017

andromache said:
In the future, USFS may reconsider its team selection process and wait to announce the team until after 4CCs, which wouldn't be an unreasonable thing to do.

Personally, I don't see why that would be necessary. Yes, 4CC is closest in time proximity to Worlds, but skaters like Ashley who feel like it would negatively impact her Worlds preparation should not have to participate. The skaters have to travel, get limited ice time for training, etc. All the skaters know that, if you haven't had a sensational season, you have to earn your spots at Nationals. Like you said, it isn't as if we're leaving a potential medalist home here.

andromache · Feb 20, 2017

bobbob said:
In Karen's case which is never internationally...? (if that is what you are saying)

But.... Karen was perfect at GPJPN with one MORE triple than Nats (couple of URs which at Nats werent called) and she got more than 2 points less PCS than Mirai who was also largely clean but had 4 URs. Her total score was under 120 for a clean skate with a couple of underrotations. She did not garner really great GOE or PCS even though her skate was not messy at all.

Anyways Karen's a great skater I just think Mirai is better up to the task at the moment.

Rewatching that performance and looking at the protocol...it's really mystifying as to why Karen wasn't better rewarded for that LP, but it may be due in part to skating earlier. In particular, her performance was stronger than Maria Sotskova's, who is generally about Karen's equal in most regards (prone to URs, nice spins and SS, though very different kinds of performers) but Maria had many more severe technical errors.

In any case, I really hope politics don't hold back Karen's scores at Worlds, which they seem to have done at NHK. I really like Maria Sotskova, but she is not 8+ superior in PCS to Karen.

CoyoteChris · Feb 20, 2017

drivingmissdaisy said:
Personally, I don't see why that would be necessary. Yes, 4CC is closest in time proximity to Worlds, but skaters like Ashley who feel like it would negatively impact her Worlds preparation should not have to participate. The skaters have to travel, get limited ice time for training, etc. All the skaters know that, if you haven't had a sensational season, you have to earn your spots at Nationals. Like you said, it isn't as if we're leaving a potential medalist home here.

I cant speak for andromache but the way I take it is that anything that happens at 4CCs could be taken into consideration. But doesnt have to be. I think Ashley was wise to stay home and focus on worlds....its a long tough season as it is....

drivingmissdaisy · Feb 20, 2017

andromache said:
Rewatching that performance and looking at the protocol...it's really mystifying as to why Karen wasn't better rewarded for that LP, but it may be due in part to skating earlier. In particular, her performance was stronger than Maria Sotskova's, who is generally about Karen's equal in most regards (prone to URs, nice spins and SS, though very different kinds of performers) but Maria had many more severe technical errors.

The US skaters must skate good SPs so that they can skate in the later LP groups, who tend to earn higher marks simply on advantageous skate order. The Canadians, two of the Russians, Satoko, and Caro are very good SP skaters so it's conceivable that no Americans could be in the last group for the LP. I think a big reason why Karen gets held back internationally is because she takes herself out of contention after the short and isn't viewed as a top contender.

andromache · Feb 20, 2017

drivingmissdaisy said:
Personally, I don't see why that would be necessary. Yes, 4CC is closest in time proximity to Worlds, but skaters like Ashley who feel like it would negatively impact her Worlds preparation should not have to participate. The skaters have to travel, get limited ice time for training, etc. All the skaters know that, if you haven't had a sensational season, you have to earn your spots at Nationals. Like you said, it isn't as if we're leaving a potential medalist home here.

Oh I totally agree. But in a case where all the choices (choices here being Mirai/Karen/Mariah) are about on par with one another, and spots are on the line, using 4CCs as a skate-off isn't the worst idea. But that would only really work in non-Olympic years, soooooo yeah. 4CCs isn't as convenient as Europeans for so many reasons.

I would think USFS would know better than to make someone compete at 4CCs for their spot if their spot has already clearly been earned, as in Ashley's case.

But now seems like a good time to mention, again, that success at 4CCs doesn't predict success at Worlds. Josh Farris, anyone? (My baby, who peaked too soon.) Jason Brown, who peaked at just the right time to place 4th at Worlds after a rather lackluster 4CCs showing? Gracie Gold and her various 4CCs disasters still skated much better at Worlds.

jenaj · Feb 20, 2017

Jammers said:
That's why having Mirai on the World team and expecting her to help Ashley keep that 3rd spot is wrong too. Does anyone really think she would have skated as well at Worlds as she did at 4CC if it was up to her to skate clean to help keep those three spots? No it would have been more like Nationals with her skating with a blank face and underroted jumps galore. Mirai skates great at 4CC when there's no pressure and she knows she's not going to Worlds.

But will either Karen or Mariah do better? That would be the question if the selection process were still open. In my opinion, the team would be better if Mirai were on it. She and Ashley alone would have gotten three spots last year. But it is only in light of her performance at 4CC that I can say that. Right after Nationals, I thought the selections were correct.

karne · Feb 20, 2017

Someone mentioned this elsewhere, but I thought I'd bring it up again anyway.

2015. Joshua wins silver at 4CCs. Jason is 4th. Adam is 10th.

Worlds: Jason is 4th. Adam is 8th. Joshua is 11th.

Between 4CC and Worlds people were raving about Josh being the new number 1, about Josh maybe medalling (and I was trying and failing to keep a lid on my excitement, I'll freely admit). Worlds came and he skated badly.

4CC results don't mean that that result will be replicated at Worlds. Max's 4CC last year was pretty dire. But he got rid of the plastic off his blades (or got new ones, not sure) and at Worlds he was great.

Mathman · Feb 20, 2017

andromache said:
Oh I totally agree. But in a case where all the choices (choices here being Mirai/Karen/Mariah) are about on par with one another, and spots are on the line, using 4CCs as a skate-off isn't the worst idea.

Yes it is.

The reason that it is a bad idea is this: The USFSA tells the skaters at the beginning of the season, "If you accomplish A, B, C, and D, then you will be sent to Worlds."

Three skaters do so. Then the USFSA says, "Oh wait a minute, did I forget to mention E? ... Unless you are Ashley Wagner, in that case you don't have to do E after all."

U.S. Nationals used to be a skate-off among all competitors for worlds spots. Now the proposal seems to be, "If the right skaters win the skate-off, then they g to Worlds. But if the wrong skaters win the skate-off, then we will have a, er, um, skate-off to see who gets to go." I presume that if the wrong skater wins 4 continents, then they will squeeze ia state-off betwee 4 continents and worlds to decide who really, really, really gets to go to Worlds.

Then after that final skate-off, the head of the federation gets to decide which skater he likes the best, never mind the results of all those skate-offs. "Don't like my whimsical choice? Sue me."

Yes, this how it is done in other countries. We should do better. (IMHO

)

Mathman · Feb 20, 2017

jenaj said:
But will either Karen or Mariah do better? That would be the question if the selection process were still open.

But the thing is, it shouldn't matter what posters to the Internet think about one skater's chances or another's. Who earned it according to the agreement that the federation made with the skaters at the beginning of the season?

A Case for Mirai Nagasu

bobbob

chuckm

b-man

bobbob

andromache

Ares

bobbob

narcissa

andromache

bobbob

CoyoteChris

drivingmissdaisy

andromache

CoyoteChris

drivingmissdaisy

andromache

jenaj

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode

Mathman

Mathman

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