Will Sasha finally win nationals?

tannisming said:

To me Nationals is a joke. Everyone should know by now it's the Kwan show, nothing more and nothing less. On the World skating scale of things, U.S. Nationals has become a huge joke.

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Yeah, it's such a joke, which is why two American ladies have placed in the top 4 at Worlds for the past five years. And if it is the Kwan show, then Kwan and the other ladies do a good job of keeping it that way.

Red Dog said:

Why must some Kwan fans call anybody who doesn't like her a Sasha fan? I just don't get this. I saw no mention of Cohen in the original post. Wow. :sheesh: (OK,mini-rant over. I know it doesn't concern me but it bugs me to no end.) It's like it's virtually impossible to not like either Kwan and Cohen (or like both of them for that matter). Another ludicrous theory...

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Normally, I could agree with you. But this discussion is US Nationals and that means Michelle and Sasha are the first names that come to mind. That could by why Piel asked if tannisming was a Sasha fan. Who else has been a threat to MK's throne? The other ladies mentioned are climbing the ladder and hopefully will not be destroyed by puberty. Until then, there really are only two.

mpal2 said:

Normally, I could agree with you. But this discussion is US Nationals and that means Michelle and Sasha are the first names that come to mind. That could by why Piel asked if tannisming was a Sasha fan. Who else has been a threat to MK's throne? The other ladies mentioned are climbing the ladder and hopefully will not be destroyed by puberty. Until then, there really are only two.

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I see where you are coming from, and it is possible. But still, there's a lot of assumption being made on the part of the Kwan fan. You didn't account for the Kwan bias. I see NOTHING in the post in question that signifies the poster is a bitter fan of X skater. How can he/she know whether the person is a fan of another skater or a non-fan? To assume that a Kwan "non-worshipper" who doesn't want Kwan to win is a bitter Sasha fan is far-fetched, considering there are many other skaters. Kwan and Cohen aren't the only ones skating.

However, the discussion doesn't have to be about U.S. Nationals. I see many Kwan fans in general labeling "non-Kwan fans" as Sasha fans, and it's not fair to them.

Actually, maybe it's just the so-called "Kwan-Cohen rivalry" (which doesn't really exist- Kwan trumps Cohen at almost every event) that seems to get everyone in a tizzy, hence the name-calling from Kwan fans and some Cohen fans as well. It's on both sides.

Someone don't like Kwan? YOU MUST BE A COHEN FAN! 'Cause they're the only people who don't like MK just because she wins! You must be bitter! Etcetera, etcetera.

Please name one time that Kwan was gifted a National title. Don't say 2000, because I was there and saw it live. Cohen was LUCKY to be in 2nd place after the LP. It was actually a 5/4 split between Cohen and Sarah Hughes, and IMO, Sarah should've been 2nd. Cohen had poor ice coverage, horrible edges, shakey landings on her triples (still hasn't improved), wobbly spirals and wasn't as polished as Michelle.
It should've been: Michelle, Sarah, Sasha.

Hey, you guys, you're making a mountain out of a mole hill here. For whatever reason, Tannisming is obsessed by only one skater, Michelle Kwan. All of his/her posts are about Kwan, as if there is no other skater in the world. OK, *yawn*, so be it. Onward and upward.

As for why Sasha is being mentioned prominently on this thread -- did you read the title?

MM

On topic, I've been wondering about this...Kwan I think no matter what will have the media spotlight on her. If she has good showings this season it will burn even brighter. About Cohen: it doesn't matter, because we all know how she is at major comps. She seems to skate the same regardless of whether she's the favorite or an underdog. It's going to be another silver or bronze for her. No gold here. That belongs to Kwan, who will call in her '06 performance for her 10th national title at her Annual Coronation, break the record for most titles, and go into the Olympics as the AMERICAN favorite. :yes:

brad640 said:

Sasha stomped Michelle under CoP at worlds, beating her by more than 14 points. Can Michelle make up that much ground by next year, or assuming USFSA institutes CoP, will Sasha finally win a national title?

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IMHO, Sasha Cohen won't win at Nationals until Michelle Kwan retires. The USFSA is so much in love with Kwan and showers her with so much adulation, that they will do everything humanly possible to see that she wins a record-breaking tenth national crown next year.

If Sasha stays eligible after the 2005-2006 season and competes in 2007, she stands an excellent chance to finally win at Nationals, but she has to skate clean programs. No more sloppy falls and miscues! She has blown several golden opportunities at Nationals and at Worlds to win, that she needs to break out of this pattern and skate the kind of brilliant programs she's capable of skating.

IMHO of course.

Red Dog, I have mislabled Tannisming a Sasha fan. Going back and rereading all of TM's post I think she may be an anyone but Kwan fan or at least an anti Kwan . The last thing I want to do is risk calling someone a Sasha fan who is not one. :agree:

Why must some Kwan fans call anybody who doesn't like her a Sasha I saw no mention of Cohen in the original post.

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BUT this thread is about when and if Sasha will ever win U.S. Nationals. It was going back and forth over who might win. Michelle, Kimmie, BeBe and Emily (I think) were mentioned as contendors who could beat SC. THEN TM piped in with the nationals is a joke/Kwan show mantra. Since the thread was about SC winning and TM's input was to say that U.S. nationals don't matter since Kwan wins them. My conclusion was TM is downgrading the importance of U.S. nationals because Cohen has never won them...which is something that Cohen fans sometimes do.

As for it being the Kwan show. For some reason I always read the "Kwan Show" as coming with eyes rolling and sounding as something negative. Not Kwans fault that the competition has not stepped up at Nationals. Still don't understand the lack of respect for longevity in figure skating. We don't want the baby ballerinas, we don't want someone to win the OGM and leave the eligible ranks, yet when you have someone who has hung in there like Kwan has it is not appreciated either.

Gee Red Dog you're making me work a hell of a lot harder than I want to on this.

Patti (off to do penance for calling TM a Sasha fan)

brad640 said:

(In the LP) Sasha distanced herself from Michelle in the spins. Michelle is not a bad spinner, but her spins are still 6.0 spins that are nice and add variety to the program, but lack changes of position and edge. Sasha maximized the points in the spins with many changes of edge and position. Most notably in the SP layback, Michelle did no changes of position and Sasha did 3.

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This does seem to be the conventional wisdom, but if you actually look at the numbers you come away with a different perspective.

For her four spins together Sasha has a base value of 9.9. Michelle's added up to 8.7. So Sasha's pont gain over Michelle for in the category of spin difficulty came to 1.2 points for the entire program.

Overall, Sasha outpointed Michelle by 10.63 points. So I think we have to look elsewhere (the component scores, for instance), to account for Sasha's placement.

Yes, it is true that Sasha's layback (level 2) had more changes of position than Michelle's. Sasha's was worth a base value of 1.6. Michelle's would have got a 1.2 if she had not done it in combination with other positions. So I would have to wonder if it is worth it to upgrade that spin just to earn an extra 0.4 points.

Mathman

Piel said:

BUT this thread is about when and if Sasha will ever win U.S. Nationals. It was going back and forth over who might win. Michelle, Kimmie, BeBe and Emily (I think) were mentioned as contendors who could beat SC. THEN TM piped in with the nationals is a joke/Kwan show mantra. Since the thread was about SC winning and TM's input was to say that U.S. nationals don't matter since Kwan wins them. My conclusion was TM is downgrading the importance of U.S. nationals because Cohen has never won them...which is something that Cohen fans sometimes do.

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OK, thanks for explaining your point of view. Although I don't agree I see what you meant.

Still though, I stand by what I said before. I don't even think the title of the thread matters in this case.

As for it being the Kwan show. For some reason I always read the "Kwan Show" as coming with eyes rolling and sounding as something negative. Not Kwans fault that the competition has not stepped up at Nationals. Still don't understand the lack of respect for longevity in figure skating. We don't want the baby ballerinas, we don't want someone to win the OGM and leave the eligible ranks, yet when you have someone who has hung in there like Kwan has it is not appreciated either.

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It's not appreciated?? Tell that to her 10,000,000,000 fans. Add the non-Kwan fans in there who may not like Kwan but still like what she contributed to skating. She is gushed about endlessly. Never mind the dissenters because remember, it comes with the fame. Not everyone is going to like you.

It's a matter of opinion. I don't call it the "Kwan Show" as a slight to Kwan, but as a statement of opinion based on the events that I've seen at Nationals for the past four years. Part of it isn't even Kwan's doing. It's her fans, and the press as well. To me, there's no evidence to prove that Nationals isn't the Kwan Show. If any dissenters would like to give it a try, they can, but it is so as far as I'm concerned.

Yes, it is true that Sasha's layback (level 2) had more changes of position than Michelle's. Sasha's was worth a base value of 1.6. Michelle's would have got a 1.2 if she had not done it in combination with other positions. So I would have to wonder if it is worth it to upgrade that spin just to earn an extra 0.4 points

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Michelle didn't gain points on her fall on her sal and 2 footing her lutz which was after the 2 min mark. She would have garnered more points. It's there for michelle but she just needs to take it.

I think next season Michelle will do spins of higher value that may not necessarily look graceful and win points. She will probably do a catch foot spiral somewhere.

lavender said:

.She will probably do a catch foot spiral somewhere.

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Aaaaagggghhh. Say it isn't so!

Red Dog, about Kwan fans, etc., I think the point is this. If you look back at Brad's last post on this thread, for example, he gives an objective analysis of why he thinks Sasha has the advantage over Michelle under the new judging system. He does not say whether this pleases him or the contrary, just that this is the way he sees the numbers working out.

But suppose Brad had ended his post with, "Nyah, nyah, nyah, Kwanfans!", like many do. Then I think we would be within our rights to guess that either

(a) This poster is a Sasha fan and is happy that Sasha seems to have the upper hand, or

(b) This poster is a silly troll who is only trying to draw attention to himself by stirring up trouble.

Piel, bless her gracious heart, always goes out of her way to assume the best about people.

Mathman

Mathman said:

Red Dog, about Kwan fans, etc., I think the point is this. If you look back at Brad's last post on this thread, for example, he gives an objective analysis of why he thinks Sasha has the advantage over Michelle under the new judging system. He does not say whether this pleases him or the contrary, just that this is the way he sees the numbers working out.

But suppose Brad had ended his post with, "Nyah, nyah, nyah, Kwanfans!", like many do. Then I think we would be within our rights to guess that either

(a) This poster is a Sasha fan and is happy that Sasha seems to have the upper hand, or

(b) This poster is a silly troll who is only trying to draw attention to himself by stirring up trouble.

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That's my point right there. At least he would have actually mentioned Cohen's name stating she is better than MK and trying to rub it in. In this case the belief would be justified. However. my issue is with the assumption by many MK fans with NO MENTION at all in the post in question that one is a fan of Sasha.

I think I would have to agree here with Red Dog (Whoa, I never thought that was coming!). The poster in question (regarding to if US Nat were a joke or not) never mention Sasha, but then there was the assumption that because the poster thought Nat were a joke, that he/she was a Cohen's fan, because "gee, Cohen’s fans have to be bitter about Nat". It is ludicrous! But I think this is all because of the supposed rivalries between Kwan and Cohen, all created by the media that follows FS. It sold to have Tonya and Nancy as rivals, so you must have some new rivals. It was then Michelle and Tara, and then unfortunately it came Sasha, and the media decided she was perfect for the role. And certain people of both skaters' fan base love to follow suit, so if you end up saying something that might remotely be thought as putting down Skater X, it must be because they are fans of Skater Y.


And going back on topic...
I think CoP suits Sasha well, because it takes into account the other elements that she excels at (spins, spirals, footwork) and that way she can make up for mistakes in jumps. Now, Michelle can start improving in spins and choreo, which I think have been her weakness the past couple of seasons. However there was one thing, in the back of my mind, that has been bugging me about some things Michelle said.

At the exhibition Gala, Brennan made a short interview with Michelle, asking her the drill (CoP, what will she do, etc.), and Michelle said something along the lines that she needed to work on getting "level 3 spins, level 3 jumps, level 3 transitions", etc. I thought "well, maybe Brennan made her nervous with questions regarding that", but I couldn't help but wonder why a skater like Michelle, that had been studying CoP before nationals, and supposedly before nationals they already had a CoP Bolero, why was she talking about level 3 jumps and transitions? Am I missing something I didn't read about CoP? was she not informed? I'm pretty sure it was more being nervous around Brennan's pesky questions, but still I couldn't get that thought off my head.

If Michelle wants to do better with CoP she has to improve what she already does best. I don't see her making many spins variations, mostly because I don't think she's that flexible enough. I read long before nationals that she had to stop practicing laybacks for a while because her back ached from trying to change positions (this was an article of Michelle getting ready for CoP). I don't think she'll do any catch foot spirals.

Sasha, OTOH, needs to secure her jumps, practice other types of combos, if not 3-3, then she can keep with the 3-3s. I think mentally it was a good strategy on Nicks, to have her do that sequence, 'cause it would set her well if trying a 3-3 in the future. I would love to see her skating to a different type of music as well.

Piel said:

Red Dog, I have mislabled Tannisming a Sasha fan. Going back and rereading all of TM's post I think she may be an anyone but Kwan fan or at least an anti Kwan . The last thing I want to do is risk calling someone a Sasha fan who is not one. :agree: Patti (off to do penance for calling TM a Sasha fan)

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We used to have a lot of "Anyone but Kwan" fans. It started out with Tara, Tara, Tara, then it went into Kwan should retire, then it was Irina, Irina, Irina, then it went into Kwan's too old, then it was Sasha, Sasha, Sasha. Nothing wrong with this, but it does become obvious. Nowadays, the 'anyone but Kwan' fans should be happy since Kwan is now rated 4th in the World. I think what the 'anyone but Kwan fans' should really look at is the 'Kwan is the greatest' fans who won't bend to an Oly winner. And they are correct to stand by their favorite. The Olys just proves that the skater who skated the best that night, won (and the judging was fair.), Kurt's the best ever!!

Joe

Well, I was just saying that it is more friendly to assume something good about a person (that he or she is a Sasha fan) than something bad (that he or she is a big meanie).

There is nothing wrong with fan rivalries, like Go Michigan and boo Ohio State. But just to say, I hate Ohio State but don't care about anything else -- that seems kind of negative and pointless to me.

On topic -- I, too was surprised by Michelle's comments after Worlds. All the pre-worlds talk about how Michelle was worried about the CoP, etc. -- I said, please. Michelle has been around long enough to know that all you have to do is come in and skate your program. But afterwards she did say that the CoP had messed with her mind. I thought that was pretty weird for a performer of her experience.

If you look at the points, what jumps out at you is that, as always, landing your jumps is everything on the tech side. For a level 3 layback, you get 2.4 points, versus 1.6 for a level 2 and 1.2 for a level 1. So by increasing the level of difficulty from 1 all the way to 3, you gain only an extra 1.2 points.

But if you land your triple Lutz you get 6.00 + GOE, while if you double it you get 1.9 - GOE, and if you complete the rotations but fall on the landing you get 2.0. This is a difference of 4.0 or 4.1 points for landing this jump.

So it takes a whole lot of good spinning, spirals and footwork to make up for mistakes on the jumps.

Obviously in a close contest every little thiing helps. But I agree with Hikaru that Michelle is better off just making sure that she is secure on the things that she already does well.

Mathman

Joesitz said:

We used to have a lot of "Anyone but Kwan" fans. It started out with Tara, Tara, Tara, then it went into Kwan should retire, then it was Irina, Irina, Irina, then it went into Kwan's too old, then it was Sasha, Sasha, Sasha. Nothing wrong with this, but it does become obvious. Nowadays, the 'anyone but Kwan' fans should be happy since Kwan is now rated 4th in the World. I think what the 'anyone but Kwan fans' should really look at is the 'Kwan is the greatest' fans who won't bend to an Oly winner. And they are correct to stand by their favorite. The Olys just proves that the skater who skated the best that night, won (and the judging was fair.), Kurt's the best ever!!

Joe

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I agree with you whole heartly. Now 'any one but Kwan' fans should really be happy that after ten years, finally Kwan stepped out of the world podium.

Mathman said:

Obviously in a close contest every little thiing helps. But I agree with Hikaru that Michelle is better off just making sure that she is secure on the things that she already does well.

Mathman

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thanks MM! I think that when preparing for CoP, the skater has to start on improving what they do best first. In Michelle's case, I would work on jumps (especially the lutz which she seems to have problems completing the triple, or was it the flip? and the 3loop, to make sure she has secured them) and on the footwork, to make sure she gets the level of difficulty she's looking for and to be consistent with it. In Sasha's case, she worked first on what she does best, which was the spins, variations of her different spirals and footwork. The second step for Michelle would be to work on choreo, same for Sasha, so that the programs don't look flat (maybe I would put this as the first step, since it's an important step when creating the program). Once they have secured what they do best, they start improving the other elements: spins for Michelle, jumps for Sasha. In Michelle's case would be doing a few variations, but I wouldn't go as to twisting the body since that seems to hurt her (re:layback issue). For Sasha is securing the landing of the jumps. She did a good first step in that direction when she did all she could to not fall in the FS. She had an OK 3-2-2 combo, maybe she could upgraded it by doing a 2loop instead of a 2toe. She also added the 3-3 sequence, she can work on making it more consistent. The key is to make those elements that they do best, give them the more points possible. It's not just about math, but it also takes creativity to get this variations.

Joesitz said:

We used to have a lot of "Anyone but Kwan" fans. It started out with Tara, Tara, Tara, then it went into Kwan should retire, then it was Irina, Irina, Irina, then it went into Kwan's too old, then it was Sasha, Sasha, Sasha. Nothing wrong with this, but it does become obvious. Nowadays, the 'anyone but Kwan' fans should be happy since Kwan is now rated 4th in the World. I think what the 'anyone but Kwan fans' should really look at is the 'Kwan is the greatest' fans who won't bend to an Oly winner. And they are correct to stand by their favorite. The Olys just proves that the skater who skated the best that night, won (and the judging was fair.), Kurt's the best ever!!

Joe

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Very well put. & a bulleyes If I ever saw one. DEAD CENTER