Good point. It's still an improvement over downgrading the base value to the lesser jump and also getting negative GOE.
Overall, I agree with this new proposal, separating UR from Downgrade. The UR will likely produce an overall impact that is slightly better than Downgrade, all things considered, including GOE. But the penalty will be severe enough that we won't be seeing a big surge in bogus claims of Triple Axel (ladies) and difficult Quads (e.g. 4F, 4Lz in men). This change I think was well reasoned and reflected the feedback of the skating community in general, taking into account a wide range of view points.
And it's more of an improvement for triple-triple combinations. Because with those, even though the base value of the downgraded triple was that of a double, the negative GOE was that of the remaining triple jump.
I am not sure I understand you correctly here. I see no noticeable impact on 3-3 combos. For example, Miki Ando's 3Lz+3Lo combo where the 3Lo is <. In the previous seasons, the overall GOE of the element will still be based on the most difficult jump in the combination, which is the 3Lz unless both jumps are downgraded, which was generally rare among elite skaters. So the new rule will only have an impact of a said skater if he/she used to have both Triples in the combo downgraded but not if only one of them was downgraded.
Will this encourage skaters to do more Triple-Triple? I am not sure. Let's use some examples. Joannie Rochette is undecided between a 3Lz+3T or a 3Lz+2T for her SP combo for the 2010-2011 season. Her coach Manon Perron made the following calculations:
1) 3Lz+3T: (6+4) X 1.1 = Base Value of 11 plus + 0.7 GOE = 11.7
2) 3Lz+3T< : (6+2.9) X 1.1 = Base Value of 9.79 minus - 1.05 GOE = 8.74
3) 3Lz+2T: (6+1.4) X 1.1 = Base Value of 8.14 plus 1.05 GOE = 9.19
In scenario 1, the coach assumes that the higher difficulty of the jump combo means it's harder to execute it well, and conservatively estimate the positive GOE to average just around one + sign = +0.7 point. In scenario 2, Ms. Perron estimates that the < sign shown to the judges will prompt some of them to go -2 and some -1 for an overall GOE around one & half - sign = -1.05 point. Likewise, in scenario 3, the easier combo should allow her skater to gain a positive GOE of about 1.05 point, between + and ++ on average.
As you can see, the upside of doing the 3T combo is worth about 2.5 points vs. the 2T option whereas the 3T< vs. 2T is more or less a wash. The downside of the new rule is that if an under-rotation was not visually visible to the judges, the skater may not get negative GOE in the past like Yu-Na Kim's 3Lz+3T combo at the 2009 GPF where she earned +2 for that element even though the 3T was downgraded. That was also the reasoning that Morozov used to justify having Miki Ando doing a 3Lz+3Lo in her SP in Vancouver hoping that judges will miss the UR visually. Therefore, the new rule ensured that UR greater than 1/4 will be advised to the judges and come with it, a higher probability of receiving negative GOE, which acts as a deterrent against more skaters trying Triple-Triple combos.
So the verdict on the potential effect on the number of attempts of 3/3 remains to be seen.
) Maybe this is a forerunner to stricter edge calls.
