Who will challenge Carolina Kostner in London, Canada?

Krislite said:

Talk about conflating arguments. You take Yuna's actual non-clean performances and compare them to an imaginary clean Kostner at worlds, which has never happened. If a perfectly clean Kostner is our only consideration, then you need to be fair and consider a perfectly clean Kim as well. Kostner will never be clean with anything more difficult than her current layout. Heck even with her watered down content she couldn't go clean. Yuna's PCS can only go up with consistency, which she can do by competing all season long before Worlds. Some rules may have changed, but nothing about pcs has changed since Vancouver other than inflation for some.

Click to expand...

FlattFan said:

If Caro is clean, it will take her Olympic performance to beat Caro. Any other performance she did so far won't do. None of them.
Yuna can definitely beat a clean Caro if she's clean, but if you think she can beat a clean Caro with her 2009 W/2009-10 GPF, 2010 W, 2011W, you're nuts.

Click to expand...

You need to read first before ranting. Ok?

jiggs said:

I am not even going into the whole Carolina vs. Yuna argument but I do have to disagree with you here. Less speed, transitions and body movement? Less speed is definitely not something you can throw at Carolina (seen both of them live, and they are both fast, but Carolina is superfast). Transitions and body movement? Carolina's FS this year is one of the most gorgeous and unusually choreographed programs in ladies' figure skating. She has lots of transitions that accentuate the music (eg. the steps leading into her 2a3t combo). The body movement might be unusual to you but it fits the music very well and brings up a "contemporary dance" feel (her opening moves or the movements she does after her first spin). I thought the program is extremely interesting and very well executed by her, and I know a lot of people agree with me here.
IMO, it was better done than Yuna's Gershwin (and I am not saying I didn't like that program - it was skated perfectly at the Olympics and Yuna certainly deserves all your praise). But that does not mean that no one can ever touch her in the choreography department. In fact, I think both Carolina's FP this year and last year have been masterpieces, some of the most beautiful programs that have ever been done. The jumps - that is a totally different story.
I find it astonishing that we are having this argument about who will beat who when it's not even known whether Yuna or Carolina continue to compete.

Click to expand...

Lets remove the aesthetic preference for the sake of argument, and lets assume they are equally great when they are both on their best form as in the examples quoted in this thread. (For the record, personally I have always thought Carolina's choreography is well done, COP smart, suited to Carolina's range and are even occasionally well executed like this year, but musically I feel she's never brought anything unique or original from one performance to the next that would makes me think she fully immerses in the music, understand it and were able to capture the essence of the music, ie/ to interpret it with originality and thoughtfulness. Imo, if you switch off the music, it rarely makes a difference to her other performance along the same narrow range of emotional monotones.)

The less speed comment was referring to Carolina's team's strategy this year that has been confirmed by the EUROSPORT UK team who says the team deliberately slowed her down this year to concentrate on 'quality and not quantity'. If you replay this year's performance compare to her previous programs, you can see visible difference in speed and therefore better control over her other elements.

This would be fine except if you remove her usual full speed which she used to deserve high PCS for. Now she is at lower speed doing an easier layout, does she still deserve the same line of high PCS she got previously? I know the ISU rules separate difficulty of TES from PCS, but an argument can certainly be made about a more difficult program is harder to go clean, so perhaps the range of mark should have some correlation to that difficulties as well. And maybe bonuses should be given for those who take greater risks with difficult programs.

Even though it is not in the formal guidelines, perhaps the judges realise this themselves that's why Patrick has consistently received higher PCS relative to the field even he may have multiple falls because what he is doing is exceptionally difficult to execute cleanly. If giving him an easier program on a slower speed, he might have an easier time to execute them cleanly but with a lower TES, great GOEs, does he still deserve the same high PCS score, or maybe even more because he actually went clean this time compare to what he did before?

I never intend to put down Carolina Kostner, I happen to think she is a great matured seasoned skater with a good body of work and great basics since she is also the most experienced competitive lady today, a decade worth. She is the rightful winner this year. But I am also very tough on fair judging, and think ideally any gold winners should able to deliver a universal standard that can stand up to any scrutiny in the long run, not based on who they are but what they did on the day. I just can't help but wonder if Yuna or Mao or even Miki did the same layout program without the Lutz or 3:3s and chose to slowed down their usual speed in order to go clean, would they still have received the same PCS like Carolina did this year? If so, why arn't they doing it? And if this strategy works, why is this still a sport?

This is a break down of the scores of the top ladies FS

TES

Carolina 63.2 (53.04 base, 4th)

Ashley 62.91 (57.70 base, 1st)

Alena 60.57 (56.57 base, 2nd)

Akiko 62.06 (55.59 base, 3rd)

Mao 45.01 (39.88 base, 5th)


PCS

Carolina 65.72

Mao 60.02

Akiko 59.24

Alena 59.10

Ashley 57.44

Carolina's PCS is off scale high while there are others like Ashley's Black swan that has highest TES basecore (& full range of triples except the 3A) and higher by 4+ relative to Carolina, but apparently 7 scores less in PCS when imo they should have been much closer. (& I can't believe Alena beat Ashley in PCS!)

And for the record I can be just as tough on Yuna if she pulls something like this, which I don't think she can get away with.

Finally to answer the thread, I hope anyone can and should able to challenge anyone regardless of who they are, as long as they have the best performance and technical goods on the day, otherwise what kind of sport is this?

FlattFan said:

Yes, a clean Yuna will beat a clean Caro with the same technical content. That's the whole point. It will take her Olympic performance to beat a clean Caro next year. The chance of Caro being clean is slim, but that's the whole point of the thread, correct? I said "assuming Caro is clean in the SP, and didn't double the flip in the LP, who can challenge her?"

Why are people arguing about non-said stuff?

Seems like there's a rabid Yuna fan who's arguing on and on about some odd thing.

Click to expand...

Are you comparing Yuna's Olympics programs with Caro's 2012 programs on a clean performance? The two are not really comparable--different jumps, different combos and different rules.

If Yuna did the exact same content as Carolina did this year, I think Yuna would beat Carolina. But Carolina's programs are technically inferior Yuna's Olympics programs, so it would actually take less than Yuna's Olympic performance to beat her. It would take simply a clean program with watered-down content from Yuna to beat Carolina. Not a clean Olympics-type content, but simply a clean performance. In other words:

Yuna's Olympic programs >> Yuna performing Caro's 2012 programs >> Caro doing her own 2012 programs

Conversely, you could compare Yuna vs. Carolina assuming they both perform Yuna's Olympics programs. But that's laughable. Carolina doing a 3Lz+3T and 3F in both the SP and the LP cleanly? Puhlease. At least Yuna has done it in reality under a high-pressure competition.

FlattFan said:

Remove the Spiral, remove the huge GOE on her 2A, see how she would score mid to high 70s.
The current rule, she's lucky to break 70.
Kostner's best under the current rule is 66.5. Kim's 3Lz-3T, 3F would only add 2.1 points BV to Kostner's BV. The other elements, I doubt Kim can beat Kostner handily on spins, on steps.

Click to expand...

I take a break to watch the Masters and come back to peruse the forum, and I find you're still going on about this like a broken clock?

I'll lay it out for you, nice and simple, addressing only two very basic points, so you can more easily follow: Yuna's TES was around 33 points in the SP. She received only 4.50 points (which included a -1.50 GOE deduction) on the 3lz-3t attempt. But she tacked on a 2t to her 3f, so she made up about a point and a half, maybe a bit more. But she lost about 6 points net, because a successful 3lz-3t for Yuna is worth about 12 points. How do we know this? Because she's done it. At Olys, she scored exactly that. This is further corroborated by the fact that, at WC 2011, she received close to this, 11.70 points, in the LP, even though it wasn't the best she's ever done. So 33+6=39. You follow me, so far?

Based on actual history, a "perfect" performance by Yuna might receive PCS components scores that average about 9.00. How do we know this? Because that is what she received in her LP at Olys. IMO true perfection is a pipe dream, but this is the closest that Yuna has ever gotten to it, that is to say, Flattfan, in real life, in front of actual people. In contrast to your feverish imaginings, I'm trying to stick to at least some vestige of factual foundation. Yuna actually scored 33 on PCS at WC 2011. If she had received 9s, what would her score be? Let's do it together: 9x5=45, then multiply by 0.8 (factoring), which gives us what? Any show of hands from you, Flattfan? That's right, the correct answer is 36.

So what would her total score be, TES and PCS together? Very good! 39+36 is 75! Gold star for you.

You can doggedly lisp out your private fantasies and declare your playpen mudpie to be a sacher torte, but don't expect people to swallow it.

And knock it off with the leering, trailer-park type slurs of her fans. I've restrained myself from responding in kind, out of respect for your eponymous namesake and for others on this forum, but don't feel that it's because of lack of ammunition if it came to a mud-slinging contest.

Robeye said:

I take a break to watch the Masters and come back to peruse the forum, and I find you're still going on about this like a broken clock?

I'll lay it out for you, nice and simple, addressing only two very basic points, so you can more easily follow: Yuna's TES was around 33 points in the SP. She received only 4.50 points (which included a -1.50 GOE deduction) on the 3lz-3t attempt. But she tacked on a 2t to her 3f, so she made up about a point and a half, maybe a bit more. But she lost about 6 points net, because a successful 3lz-3t for Yuna is worth about 12 points. How do we know this? Because she's done it. At Olys, she scored exactly that. This is further corroborated by the fact that, at WC 2011, she received close to this, 11.70 points, in the LP, even though it wasn't the best she's ever done. So 33+6=39. You follow me, so far?

Based on actual history, a "perfect" performance by Yuna might receive PCS components scores that average about 9.00. How do we know this? Because that is what she received in her LP at Olys. IMO true perfection is a pipe dream, but this is the closest that Yuna has ever gotten to it, that is to say, Flattfan, in real life, in front of actual people. In contrast to your feverish imaginings, I'm trying to stick to at least some vestige of factual foundation. Yuna actually scored 33 on PCS at WC 2011. If she had received 9s, what would her score be? Let's do it together: 9x5=45, then multiply by 0.8 (factoring), which gives us what? Any show of hands from you, Flattfan? That's right, the correct answer is 36.

So what would her total score be, TES and PCS together? Very good! 39+36 is 75! Gold star for you.

You can doggedly lisp out your private fantasies and declare your playpen mudpie to be a sacher torte, but don't expect people to swallow it.

And knock it off with the leering, trailer-park type slurs of her fans. I've restrained myself from responding in kind, out of respect for your eponymous namesake and for others on this forum, but don't feel that it's because of lack of ammunition if it came to a mud-slinging contest.

Click to expand...

I'd like to add to your example an element by element breakdown from WC 2011 protocols:

3Lz+3T = 10.10 + 1.60 GOE (this is from her LP in 2011)
3F = 5.4 + 0.9 GOE (this takes the 3F + 2T and subtracts the 2T)
FSSp4 = 3.0 + 0.71 GOE
2A = 3.3 + 1.0 GOE
LSp4 = 2.7 + 1.29 GOE
SlSt3 = 3.3 + 0.93 GOE
CCoSp4 = 3.5 + 1.14 GOE

TES = 37.27

That's with the GOE on the 3F lower because she had to turn it into a combo. A clean solo 3F would get 1.5 GOE. And of course, with 9's for PCS, she'd easily score around 74 for a clean performance. No "luck" needed to hit 70+; she only needs to go clean in the SP, as she's done dozens of times in the past, unlike our imaginary squeaky clean Carolina at Worlds.

ETA:

Now compare their spins and steps:

Caro at 2012 WC SP:
LSp4 2.7 + .5
SlSt4 3.9 + 1.4
FSSp4 3 + 0.21
CCoSp4 3.5 + .29

Spins + Footwork TES = 15.5

Yuna's SP at 2011 WC:
FSSp4 = 3.0 + 0.71 GOE
LSp4 = 2.7 + 1.29 GOE
SlSt3 = 3.3 + 0.93 GOE
CCoSp4 = 3.5 + 1.14 GOE

Spins + Footwork TES = 16.57

So even with a level 4 on everything, Caro was beaten by Yuna--who had a Level 3 steps--on non-jump elements.

LOL! Love it! Where did Yuna find these people?

Hey guys, let's cool down all this heated discussion with a nice cool one.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDNp-wLnxhk

Hey, Yuna is.

Mrs. P said:

Hey guys, let's cool down all this heated discussion with a nice cool one.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDNp-wLnxhk

Hey, Yuna is.

Click to expand...

Love the ad, though I don't drink beer.

FlattFan said:

LOL! Love it! Where did Yuna find these people?

Click to expand...

<---Learn to read. We come from the Yunaverse.

Krislite said:

I'd like to add to your example an element by element breakdown from WC 2011 protocols:

3Lz+3T = 10.10 + 1.60 GOE (this is from her LP in 2011)
3F = 5.4 + 0.9 GOE (this takes the 3F + 2T and subtracts the 2T)
FSSp4 = 3.0 + 0.71 GOE
2A = 3.3 + 1.0 GOE
LSp4 = 2.7 + 1.29 GOE
SlSt3 = 3.3 + 0.93 GOE
CCoSp4 = 3.5 + 1.14 GOE

TES = 37.27

That's with the GOE on the 3F lower because she had to turn it into a combo. A clean solo 3F would get 1.5 GOE. And of course, with 9's for PCS, she'd easily score around 74 for a clean performance. No "luck" needed to hit 70+; she only needs to go clean in the SP, as she's done dozens of times in the past, unlike our imaginary squeaky clean Carolina at Worlds.

ETA:

Now compare their spins and steps:

Caro at 2012 WC SP:
LSp4 2.7 + .5
SlSt4 3.9 + 1.4
FSSp4 3 + 0.21
CCoSp4 3.5 + .29

Spins + Footwork TES = 15.5

Yuna's SP at 2011 WC:
FSSp4 = 3.0 + 0.71 GOE
LSp4 = 2.7 + 1.29 GOE
SlSt3 = 3.3 + 0.93 GOE
CCoSp4 = 3.5 + 1.14 GOE

Spins + Footwork TES = 16.57

So even with a level 4 on everything, Caro was beaten by Yuna--who had a Level 3 steps--on non-jump elements.

Click to expand...

It's useless to compare scores from different competition with different judges! To make a real comparison you need to take as example two clean performance at the same competition with the same judges and then you can talk about it...

But I want to add a personal thought since you are pointing out Yuna' sp at 2011 WC: I've always found Kim extremely overscored...She dind't deserved that score last year..

Tanja90 said:

It's useless to compare scores from different competition with different judges! To make a real comparison you need to take as example two clean performance at the same competition with the same judges and then you can talk about it...

But I want to add a personal thought since you are pointing out Yuna' sp at 2011 WC: I've always found Kim extremely overscored...She dind't deserved that score last year..

Click to expand...

More than Carolina?
For years, Caro has had the reputation of being highly overscored on skating boards.

Tanja90 said:

It's useless to compare scores from different competition with different judges! To make a real comparison you need to take as example two clean performance at the same competition with the same judges and then you can talk about it...

But I want to add a personal thought since you are pointing out Yuna' sp at 2011 WC: I've always found Kim extremely overscored...She dind't deserved that score last year..

Click to expand...

The point was to counter FlattFan's assertion that Yuna would be "lucky" to hit 70 under the current rules. I was merely arguing using her most recent sp under current rules she would have easily scored above 70 with simply a clean performance. The comparison to Carolina's other marks was in response to FlattFan's doubt that Yuna could beat Carolina in spins and steps. The argument is all about potential scoring, so it's a perfectly valid comparison as the same rules applied to the two competitions.

Whether you think she's over scored is irrelevant--we're talking about what cop judges might do, not what you think. Since you felt it necessary to make that remark, I'll say I find it laughable that a Carolina Kostner fan is complaining about over scoring. Almost as laughable as Chan fans doing the same.

cosmos said:

More than Carolina?
For years, Caro has had the reputation of being highly overscored on skating boards.

Click to expand...

yes..still it's my own opinion.

FlattFan said:

She had 5 triples at 2009 W. That ain't going to beat a 6 triples Caro.
2007 CoR was not up to par in term of PCS.

Click to expand...

She scored 207 points at the 2009 Worlds. That was with a discounted spin. Yes that would easily beat a clean Kostner who is not capable of scoring over 200 points even clean with her current content. Again you cant ignore the short program and its impact on the final points like it doesnt exist (and even Kim's 5 triple/botched spin program was scored at 130, which Kostner has only scored once).

Kim at the time of fall 2007 was already being given huge PCS by the judges, higher than anyone else. Whether you agree with it or not is immaterial, just like whether I have agreed with some of the PCS of skaters like Ando and Flatt in the past is immaterial to what the final scores and results would be.

Kostner's only weakness is inconsistency. How many seasons did Rochette place ahead of Kostner? 1?

Click to expand...

Rochette was regularly beating Kostner in both the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 seasons. Kostner's only weakness at one time was inconsistency, but now she has the weakness of inferior jump content since she isnt even doing a triple lutz or triple-triples anymore (though it has helped her cure her consistency issues).

pangtongfan said:

She scored 207 points at the 2009 Worlds. That was with a discounted spin. Yes that would easily beat a clean Kostner who is not capable of scoring over 200 points even clean with her current content. Again you cant ignore the short program and its impact on the final points like it doesnt exist (and even Kim's 5 triple/botched spin program was scored at 130, which Kostner has only scored once).

Kim at the time of fall 2007 was already being given huge PCS by the judges, higher than anyone else. Whether you agree with it or not is immaterial, just like whether I have agreed with some of the PCS of skaters like Ando and Flatt in the past is immaterial to what the final scores and results would be.




Rochette was regularly beating Kostner in both the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 seasons. Kostner's only weakness at one time was inconsistency, but now she has the weakness of inferior jump content since she isnt even doing a triple lutz or triple-triples anymore (though it has helped her cure her consistency issues).

Click to expand...

FlattFan said:

Remove the Spiral, remove the huge GOE on her 2A, see how she would score mid to high 70s.
The current rule, she's lucky to break 70.
Kostner's best under the current rule is 66.5. Kim's 3Lz-3T, 3F would only add 2.1 points BV to Kostner's BV. The other elements, I doubt Kim can beat Kostner handily on spins, on steps.

Click to expand...

Even with the current rules I am sure she would score over 70. By the Olympics she was reaching close to 80, she isnt going to lose 10 points by removing the spiral sequence which wasnt even a strong element for her anyway. At the very least she would score over Kostner's 66.5 PB in the SP under current rules. The judges always gave Kim higher PCS and GOE than Kostner, if she were at her best I dont see why that would change, especialy when they tend to boost those things based on difficulty anyway, which Kostner no longer has in comparision. Again it is hypothetical and I dont expect Kim to return anyway, but to create a fantasy Kostner which she never produces (skating cleanly) then implying Kim could only beat that once in her career when the scores and all logic say otherwise is ridiculous.

pangtongfan said:

Even with the current rules I am sure she would score over 70. By the Olympics she was reaching close to 80, she isnt going to lose 10 points by removing the spiral sequence which wasnt even a strong element for her anyway. At the very least she would score over Kostner's 66.5 PB in the SP under current rules. The judges always gave Kim higher PCS and GOE than Kostner, if she were at her best I dont see why that would change, especialy when they tend to boost those things based on difficulty anyway, which Kostner no longer has in comparision. Again it is hypothetical and I dont expect Kim to return anyway, but to create a fantasy Kostner which she never produces (skating cleanly) then implying Kim could only beat that once in her career when the scores and all logic say otherwise is ridiculous.

Click to expand...

Yes, Olympics. HUGE score at the Olympics. You seem to forget back in the day Kim can get 5+ points for a 2A. Not anymore.
Kim would have to be her absolute best to reach 70. Don't think it will happen with her away from the competition for so long.
Yes, if Kostner is perfect, the only time Kim would beat her would be when she was perfect herself.

I'm fed up with stupid useless debates or Polls on Who is better than who? on skating boards.

They had their days. and under each scoring system, They did their best. They should be respected as they were.



Now , At last, Here comes ''Imaginary Caro''!!!! Don't you guys think that's too much? Gosh!! Now,for comparison's sake,We need Carolina Kostner that isn't even real.

Of course,''Imaginary Caro'' should be perfect. But, unfortunately and mysteriously ''Imaginary Yuna'' should be weaker than ''Real Yuna''.

At least, there have been no debates on ''imaginary Witt or Kwan'', as far as I know.

Can you imagine someone talking about ''If Witt got 3Lutz,3A, she would~~~''?




And That kind of comparison is like insulting Caro's great achievements in the real world.

FlattFan said:

Yes, Olympics. HUGE score at the Olympics. You seem to forget back in the day Kim can get 5+ points for a 2A. Not anymore.
Kim would have to be her absolute best to reach 70. Don't think it will happen with her away from the competition for so long.
Yes, if Kostner is perfect, the only time Kim would beat her would be when she was perfect herself.

Click to expand...

You need to look at the TES scores more carefully, especially last year's worlds. Yuna didn't get 76+ in the past just because of her double Axel. The big GOE's were on everything, and the PCS were sky-high. If you'd actually look at my element by element break-down in my previous, you'd see that even with GOE factoring and no spiral, she'd only need to be clean to surpass 70 points. Not "absolute best". Just clean.

When YuNa was active, it was alomost impossible for women to get level 4 in steps, but now it is frequent. YuNa can certainly get level 4 in steps now and get extra points.

Now , I,m expecting seriously that ''Imaginary Flatt'' would beat ''Imaginary Yuna''...


Why couldn't she? I mean it. Someone has ability to rationalize that. I think somebody is simply a genius!!! He could slap Joseph Goebbels in the face.

I definitely believe that He could convince even Philip Hersh of her overwhelming victoy.