2016-2017 Ladies Cumulative Average Scores

[4everchan]

sample too small or not, different scoring scales in competitions or not, the OP is just presenting existing DATA to simply get us interested in the ladies contenders for worlds... and some things are clear... there are a couple strong russians, a couple strong japanese and hear it, a couple strong canadians.

no need to find ways to deny this.

CK is a special case... she has only competed in Europe as far as I know, where she receives a lot of support. We will see what will happen when she competes against the other top stars ... I doubt that her BV is good enough to keep her on the podium, especially if she isn't able to land things 100% cleanly as she relies a lot on GOE and PCS for now...

 

[bobbob]

Very good analysis, IMO. If I were to make predictions for worlds, I would pretty much go straight off the average score list, other than (maybe) put Ashley a couple of spots higher. I do agree that the average score and high score are probably more insightful than low score because that primarily just says who had the least number of skates or one bad day...we're not going to assume everyone skates their worst at Worlds. Again Carolina doesn't seem to have had a single really bad competition so far, and I she seems to be doing quite well, improving at each of her 4 competitions thus far, so we will see in Helsinki...I think she will challenge for the podium.

 

[Mirunna]

I think in the past that is in part how Kostner did so well = if she made errors others made bigger errors lol.

I don't think that is accurate. Up until 2010 she was trying one of the hardest jump layout of the bunch, even harder than Yuna's. She had a somehow consistent 3-3 and she rarely pooped (messy landings / falls were more often). So even if she was inconsistent, she had the TES advantage over most of her competitors at that time. Remember 2008 Worlds? She had small jump errors on most of her jump passes but she landed 7 jumps, while Mao / Yuna landed / got credit for 5.

After Vancouver she tried an easier layout but her consistency increased substantially as a result. Post Vancouver she won many medals while skating pretty consistent and somehow clean, having the PCS edge. She did not need for others to make mistakes to win medals, with Yuna out and Mao off form for a big chunk of 2010-2014 period.
She won the Olympic medal with back to back clean skates. The only controversial medal post 2010 is 2014 bronze medal. And while it is controversial, people forget that she skated the best SP in her entire career in that competition which helped her maintain a podium position, though I also believe that she got reputation points in the LP which also helped. Maybe the judges felt she was held down in Sochi and tried to make up for it.

In what concerns Worlds 2017, with her improved layout (after Nordics I see she is going for 7 triples in the FS), if she is clean she will medal. Just IMO. Irrespective if others make mistakes or not. Just IMO

 

[[email protected]]

In what concerns Worlds 2017, with her improved layout (after Nordics I see she is going for 7 triples in the FS), if she is clean she will medal. Just IMO. Irrespective if others make mistakes or not. Just IMO

I enjoy Caro's Sochi programs and performances. Even at the team event it was fabulous. But this year I am not impressed. I don't think that with her no lutz 3T-3T layout with same performance as was during Nordics she should medal over clean Anna and Satoko even when skating clean. What also perplexes me is that returning Mao was judged much harsher than returning Caro. The time to request our GS expert to study judges' board composition?

 

[uhh]

I enjoy Caro's Sochi programs and performances. Even at the team event it was fabulous. But this year I am not impressed. I don't think that with her no lutz 3T-3T layout with same performance as was during Nordics she should medal over clean Anna and Satoko even when skating clean. What also perplexes me is that returning Mao was judged much harsher than returning Caro. The time to request our GS expert to study judges' board composition?

Judges were always willing to give Mao high scores as long as she rotated her jumps. The thing that has killed her scores for the last 1.5 years is the underrotations (and some meltdown skates like GPF 2015 & TEB 16 :sad4. It was only really during the last GPs that her PCS fell away from the other top ladies, and sadly that is usually what the judges do, regardless of nationality, when a skater is so inconsistent.

I agree Caro needs the lutz back to medal at worlds. But at the moment she is doing mostly clean performances, and that helps every part of her PCS.

 

[Mirunna]

I enjoy Caro's Sochi programs and performances. Even at the team event it was fabulous. But this year I am not impressed. I don't think that with her no lutz 3T-3T layout with same performance as was during Nordics she should medal over clean Anna and Satoko even when skating clean. What also perplexes me is that returning Mao was judged much harsher than returning Caro. The time to request our GS expert to study judges' board composition?

Well during Nordics Caro was not clean and Zayacked anyway, so no, she won't win against Anna and Satoko with that kind of a performance. But I am sure that won't be her final layout because in the present she is repeating three kind of triples (loop, salcow and toeloop). I suspect she will go for 3F-3T in the LP and replace one Loop with a Lutz. She doesn't need a 3Lz-3T, heck, Medvedeva is breaking record after record without it. I think Caro will medal only if clean and improved jump layout. Anna has her issues with flip edges and sometimes UR'es when not at her best, not to mention Satoko's UR issues. Caro has on her side good technique, no edge issues and no UR issues. So a clean skate will most likely do it.

The judges were more than willing to score Mao well, but she struggled too much and her PCS went downhill after each competition that went bad for her. The last time she had a good competition was Worlds 2016 when her reputation was already bad and PCS were crap. It's heartbreaking since she is my favorite skater, but it is what it is. Only a miracle will have her fully healed and in top form for the next season.

 

[kwanatic]

As Carolina will likely end up with the 2nd highest PCS, she can afford to get away with excluding the lutz especially if she does the 3F-3T in the SP (which she went for at Nordic). She's landing the rest of the jumps consistently enough and will earn good GOE so I think she has a great shot at a medal if she can skate cleanly. I'm thinking a clean Carolina will go over a clean Miyahara and Pogorilaya. They will win in TES but if Carolina's TES is comparable, she can edge them on PCS.

Evgenia wins gold and I see Carolina, Satoko and Anna fighting for 2nd and 3rd...with Kaetlyn thrown in as the wild card. If by some miracle she can stay on her feet I think Kaetlyn will shake up the podium. She could be as high as 2nd or she could fall out of the top 6. Who knows with her?

 

[FlattFan]

If Caro does what she did at the Nordics, and just switch out the last 3Sal with just 2 Lutz, she will place over Pogo and Satoko regardless of what they do. No need to put in 3lutz.
The only reason she needs the lutz is she's going for Gold. I think a 7 clean triples without any edge or UR issue will put her over Med who has an edge issue.

Mao came back much worse than before with more URed and popped jumps. She did not skate with the kind of confidence and ease that Carolina is doing. Yes, her PCS are slightly lower than she should get them, but she is not helping the judges in rewarding her. If she skated clean a few times, she will be contending for a medal as well.

 

[Mirunna]

The only reason she needs the lutz is she's going for Gold. I think a 7 clean triples without any edge or UR issue will put her over Med who has an edge issue.

If you change "I think" with "Should" I would agree with you. Unfortunately Med gets away with her edge on the lutz, has better spins and gets PCS over Caro. This thread comparing the scores show that she is untouchable even if not clean, irrespective if fans believe it's right or wrong

 

[FlattFan]

If you change "I think" with "Should" I would agree with you. Unfortunately Med gets away with her edge on the lutz, has better spins and gets PCS over Caro. This thread comparing the scores show that she is untouchable even if not clean, irrespective if fans believe it's right or wrong

If it's up to me, both girls going for 7 triples and 2A, Carolina should have a blow out margin. But the system is now rewarding tanos and backloading, so Med's TES will have a 4-5 points cushion. She should still be at least 5 points back in PCS (1 point per component) but she won't. So I only think Carolina can beat her at this point if she does her Nordics layout with one of the 3Sal switched to a 3Lutz.

 

[solani]

If it's up to me, both girls going for 7 triples and 2A, Carolina should have a blow out margin. But the system is now rewarding tanos and backloading, so Med's TES will have a 4-5 points cushion. She should still be at least 5 points back in PCS (1 point per component) but she won't. So I only think Carolina can beat her at this point if she does her Nordics layout with one of the 3Sal switched to a 3Lutz.

I think that Carolina has the potential to beat Evgenia (she always had the potential to beat anyone), but not this season at Worlds. She'll have to skate in a very early group in the SP and that's going to hurt her score. I expect her to be about 5 points behind Evgenia after the SP if she goes clean (and Evgenia clean as well of course). She's no chance to make up for that.
I think that Carolina's new 2A-1L-3S combo is stellar (she did half loop combos in her teen years, but not that smooth). She's showing versatility with that. We know that when her 3Lz is back it's going to be great. The Olympic season is going to be interesting, but she'll have to do it without Mishin then ...

 

[FlattFan]

I think that Carolina has the potential to beat Evgenia (she always had the potential to beat anyone), but not this season at Worlds. She'll have to skate in a very early group in the SP and that's going to hurt her score. I expect her to be about 5 points behind Evgenia after the SP if she goes clean (and Evgenia clean as well of course). She's no chance to make up for that.
I think that Carolina's new 2A-1L-3S combo is stellar (she did half loop combos in her teen years, but not that smooth). She's showing versatility with that. We know that when her 3Lz is back it's going to be great. The Olympic season is going to be interesting, but she'll have to do it without Mishin then ...

Mishin doesn't have any student at the Olympics. I think coaching her to an Olympics medal if not gold is more prestigious than anything else since Plushenko.

 

[solani]

Mishin doesn't have any student at the Olympics. I think coaching her to an Olympics medal if not gold is more prestigious than anything else since Plushenko.

I think he won't be allowed to coach her - he also rejected her prior to the Sochi Olympics, she used to do Summer camps with him. And Huth is still listed as her coach.

 

[xeyra]

I think he won't be allowed to coach her - he also rejected her prior to the Sochi Olympics, she used to do Summer camps with him. And Huth is still listed as her coach.

Does this not letting Russian coaches teach foreigners always happen for every Olympics or was it only the one time they were in Russia? Honest question; I have no idea if it's common politics.

 

[solani]

Does this not letting Russian coaches teach foreigners always happen for every Olympics or was it only the one time they were in Russia? Honest question; I have no idea if it's common politics.

I don't know either. But the Russian Fed is paying Mishin and he said lately that he isn't charging Carolina. I could understand if the Russian Fed says that they won't support the coaching of an Italian athlete in the Olympic season. Especially if this athlete could be a serious threat.

 

[SnowWhite]

I think that Carolina has the potential to beat Evgenia (she always had the potential to beat anyone), but not this season at Worlds. She'll have to skate in a very early group in the SP and that's going to hurt her score. I expect her to be about 5 points behind Evgenia after the SP if she goes clean (and Evgenia clean as well of course). She's no chance to make up for that.
I think that Carolina's new 2A-1L-3S combo is stellar (she did half loop combos in her teen years, but not that smooth). She's showing versatility with that. We know that when her 3Lz is back it's going to be great. The Olympic season is going to be interesting, but she'll have to do it without Mishin then ...

The order is determined by World ranking right? Or at least the groups are. Since I can't remember, this is my best attempt at what the groups will be (not necessarily in order, because I started with the last group and worked up).

1st group: MacKay, Wories, Yu, Zhao, Yamada
2nd group: Peltonen, Grm, Hendrickx, Khnychenkova, Hälvin
3rd group: Hanzlikova, Gjersem, Williams, Lin, Frank
4th group: Schott, Helgesson, Galustyan, Craine, Kostner
5th group: Mihara, Higuchi, Lecavelier, Toth, Bell, Zijun Li
6th group: Osmond, Tursynbaeva, Chen, Kuchvalska, Rajicova, Choi
7th group: Medvedeva, Miyahara, Pogorilaya, Wagner, Sotskova, Daleman

 

[chuckm]

IMO, Kostner should do fine, despite starting in an earlier group. She will stand out as vastly superior to those who skated before her. Anyway, judges love her and she will get excellent PCS scores.

 

[Hannah555]

IMO, Kostner should do fine, despite starting in an earlier group. She will stand out as vastly superior to those who skated before her. Anyway, judges love her and she will get excellent PCS scores.

She did the same at Europeans. She skated in early group but got excellent scores.

 

[Sackie]

Sometimes it works out better for a top skater to skate in a lower group. She will shine so much more in comparison to those skating around her. And in 2013 Kaetlyn had to skate # 9 and Yuna # 14 and they ended up 4th and 1st after the short! If Kostner skates well she can lay down a great score that the others will have to try and beat!

 

[Daniel1998]

*Standings updated to reflect Sotskova's addition to (and Radionova's exclusion from) the Worlds team.*