2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[silveruskate]

A 3A now is great, but If you think about it, she learned her 3A in a day in 2018, wow absolutely amazing. But did she do it after the vacation and in her programs the next season? No. And why not? This time she really needs it, but the 3A won't just stay during the vacation. She's going to have to get it back once more and keep it.

The longest time she retained her 3A is around 6 months. It was an astonishing one, but she trained and got it September, and most likely kept it until March. This recent 3A was important because we now know she can still do it, her 3S really doesn't look bad either. Wink. But Aliona is a complete wildcard when it comes to which jumps she's going to have by test-skates even now.

 

[Amei]

A 3A now is great, but If you think about it, she learned her 3A in a day in 2018, wow absolutely amazing. But did she do it after the vacation and in her programs the next season? No. And why not? This time she really needs it, but the 3A won't just stay during the vacation. She's going to have to get it back once more and keep it.

The longest time she retained her 3A is around 6 months. It was an astonishing one, but she trained and got it September, and most likely kept it until March. This recent 3A was important because we now know she can still do it, her 3S really doesn't look bad either. Wink. But Aliona is a complete wildcard when it comes to which jumps she's going to have by test-skates even now.

I think that can be said about a lot of skaters

 

[silveruskate]

I think that can be said about a lot of skaters

If you think about it. Sasha retained her quads for 4 seasons in a row now. Anna for 3 seasons in a row. Kamila for 2 seasons. Maiia has been trying a quad for 2 seasons in a row (her Worlds 2020 was fully-rotated).

But I agree this vacation is going to be difficult and important for all skaters.

 

[chasingneverland]

Maiia has been trying a quad for 2 seasons in a row (her Worlds 2020 was fully-rotated).

I think you have to at least land it cleanly in competition. I mean otherwise there's no difference between trying it in practice.

 

[silveruskate]

I think you have to at least land it cleanly in competition. I mean otherwise there's no difference between trying it in practice.

True. I imagine Maiia landed it if it was in her Jr RusNats and Worlds. But besides, most important is she has the rotation. With Aliona it appears as though when she doesn't have the 3A she just doesn't have it at all. But when she gets it she gets it quickly. I remember around October/November time she just did not have rotation, even in practice. So to me that really is losing the jump.

But the point completely stands for the other skaters for sure.

 

[chasingneverland]

True. I imagine Maiia landed it if it was in her Jr RusNats and Worlds. But besides, most important is she has the rotation. With Aliona it appears as though when she doesn't have the 3A she just doesn't have it at all. But when she gets it she gets it quickly. I remember around October/November time she just did not have rotation, even in practice. So to me that really is losing the jump.

But the point completely stands for the other skaters for sure.

True. However, there is a bit of personality difference playing a role there. Aliona won't try something in competition unless she can get it. I mean she was around 20% on her 3A at Rostelecom and refused to put it in her program. (Anna is also fairly conservative.)

 

[Amei]

True. However, there is a bit of personality difference playing a role there. Aliona won't try something in competition unless she can get it. I mean she was around 20% on her 3A at Rostelecom and refused to put it in her program. (Anna is also fairly conservative.)

Well there's more reason to be conservative with triple axels vs quads. If you fall on the triple axel in the SP you could be putting yourself outside the top 10 after the SP. A quad as long as you can rotate it, isnt a total point killer because you can absorb it a little bit in the FS.

 

[chasingneverland]

Well there's more reason to be conservative with triple axels vs quads. If you fall on the triple axel in the SP you could be putting yourself outside the top 10 after the SP. A quad as long as you can rotate it, isnt a total point killer because you can absorb it a little bit in the FS.

Completely different.

First of all if you're going to argue as long as you rotate the quad it's only fair that you argue as long as you rotate the 3A. A fall on a rotated 3A will get you ~4 points. A rotated clean 2A will get you maybe .3-.4 more.

That's a moot point because "as long as you can rotate it" it also isn't a "total point killer". (Plus the -1 fall deduction but that applies for falls on anything - doubles, triples, quads, everything.)

Second of all, you can't do quads in the SP so it actually is usually seen as a reasonable risk, assuming 1. you can rotate it even with a fall and 2. you're not a junior so it doesn't risk the entire combo if you fall.

Thirdly, that actually is only true if you do one (1) quad. If you repeat the quad, you run the risk of falling, losing the combo, and Zayaking. (Same risk as if you repeat the 3A.)

 

[LiamForeman]

Question: Two seasons ago, for the SGP, the top 3 were paired with the next 3. (Anna/Liza, Sasha/Med, and Alena/Zag). Who do you think they will pair up next season? The top 3 seeds are Anna/Liza/Sasha for next season. And then you have Valieva/Usacheva/Khromykh. If I were RusFed, I think the priority should be Valieva to win everything leading up to the Olympics. So I would pair Liza/Valieva since Liza is much less competition for Valieva. Anna is world champion and also a fave for the OGM, so I would pair Anna/Maiia because Maiia is the least competition of the lower 3 (for now, things can change I know). That leaves Sasha paired with Daria.

So for the SGP we'd see together Anna/Maiia, Liza/Kamila, and Sasha/Daria.

Of course this is leaving out Alyona. I'm not sure which pairing I would put her with though. Since she also could be OGM material, she needs to be in the weakest pairing to possibly win her events and make GPF. Which do you think is the weakest of the pairings? I'm thinking Anna/Maiia. I hope Anna selects Skate America, since that would possibly mean we'd see Anna, Maiia, and Alyona there. That would be amazing!

When do assignments come out?

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Question: Two seasons ago, for the SGP, the top 3 were paired with the next 3. (Anna/Liza, Sasha/Med, and Alena/Zag). Who do you think they will pair up next season? The top 3 seeds are Anna/Liza/Sasha for next season. And then you have Valieva/Usacheva/Khromykh. If I were RusFed, I think the priority should be Valieva to win everything leading up to the Olympics. So I would pair Liza/Valieva since Liza is much less competition for Valieva. Anna is world champion and also a fave for the OGM, so I would pair Anna/Maiia because Maiia is the least competition of the lower 3 (for now, things can change I know). That leaves Sasha paired with Daria.

So for the SGP we'd see together Anna/Maiia, Liza/Kamila, and Sasha/Daria.

Of course this is leaving out Alyona. I'm not sure which pairing I would put her with though. Since she also could be OGM material, she needs to be in the weakest pairing to possibly win her events and make GPF. Which do you think is the weakest of the pairings? I'm thinking Anna/Maiia. I hope Anna selects Skate America, since that would possibly mean we'd see Anna, Maiia, and Alyona there. That would be amazing!

When do assignments come out?

I would think they'd want to mix up the pairings, because you don't want two out-of-form or injured skaters competing together at two GP events. I would expect that the Russian GP event would feature Anna (especially since she hasn't competed in it) and probably another strong contender like Kamila. Liza could face Kamila and Alena once each, Sasha could face Alena once and Maiia and/or Daria once.

 

[Minz]

When do assignments come out?

Assignments come out sometime in June, and the Russian National Team comes out in May.
The national team will be interesting - will they take a spot from another discipline and have 7 on the team or will they keep 6 and put someone into the reserve? If so - who?

 

[chasingneverland]

Question: Two seasons ago, for the SGP, the top 3 were paired with the next 3. (Anna/Liza, Sasha/Med, and Alena/Zag). Who do you think they will pair up next season? The top 3 seeds are Anna/Liza/Sasha for next season. And then you have Valieva/Usacheva/Khromykh. If I were RusFed, I think the priority should be Valieva to win everything leading up to the Olympics. So I would pair Liza/Valieva since Liza is much less competition for Valieva. Anna is world champion and also a fave for the OGM, so I would pair Anna/Maiia because Maiia is the least competition of the lower 3 (for now, things can change I know). That leaves Sasha paired with Daria.

So for the SGP we'd see together Anna/Maiia, Liza/Kamila, and Sasha/Daria.

Of course this is leaving out Alyona. I'm not sure which pairing I would put her with though. Since she also could be OGM material, she needs to be in the weakest pairing to possibly win her events and make GPF. Which do you think is the weakest of the pairings? I'm thinking Anna/Maiia. I hope Anna selects Skate America, since that would possibly mean we'd see Anna, Maiia, and Alyona there. That would be amazing!

When do assignments come out?

I don't think they have Anna and Aliona in the same group. I don't know that Eteri will want 2 of her 3 front runners for the Olympic team at the same events.

It could happen obviously..but I don't think they keep them together. Or either of them with Kamila.

 

[chasingneverland]

I would think they'd want to mix up the pairings, because you don't want two out-of-form or injured skaters competing together at two GP events. I would expect that the Russian GP event would feature Anna (especially since she hasn't competed in it) and probably another strong contender like Kamila. Liza could face Kamila and Alena once each, Sasha could face Alena once and Maiia and/or Daria once.

They won't put Anna and Kamila together at the same GP event, especially at the "home" one.

They also won't change the pairings. They won't have THAT much jurisdiction over their placements. And they didn't change the top pairings when the 3A turned senior. They're even less likely to do that with the Olympics so soon. They'll have the reigning World's champion, the reigning Junior World's champion, and the reigning GPF and Euros champion. (They'll also have Liza, Sasha, and Daria as Junior World/World's medalists.)

 

[Amei]

Completely different.

First of all if you're going to argue as long as you rotate the quad it's only fair that you argue as long as you rotate the 3A. A fall on a rotated 3A will get you ~4 points. A rotated clean 2A will get you maybe .3-.4 more.

That's a moot point because "as long as you can rotate it" it also isn't a "total point killer". (Plus the -1 fall deduction but that applies for falls on anything - doubles, triples, quads, everything.)

Second of all, you can't do quads in the SP so it actually is usually seen as a reasonable risk, assuming 1. you can rotate it even with a fall and 2. you're not a junior so it doesn't risk the entire combo if you fall.

Thirdly, that actually is only true if you do one (1) quad. If you repeat the quad, you run the risk of falling, losing the combo, and Zayaking. (Same risk as if you repeat the 3A.)

My point in being more conservative with triple axels vs. quads was in regards to the SP a fall on a triple axel will harm you far more than a fall on a quad or I also a fall on a triple axel in a smaller scale in the FS can be absorbed better because you have the additional elements for points. But I can't remember too many instances of skaters attempting a triple axel only in the FS and not trying it in the SP

• Attempted a quad still gives you the options of doing a triple of that same jump 2 times without Zayaking whereas a triple axel you can then only do the double axel twice, which the double axel is a low scoring jump, only 3.3 points BV and generally judges don't give as big of GOEs on a double vs. a triple jump.
• Here are a couple point layouts. 1 is Shcherbakova falling on her quad flip and the other Young You falling on her triple axel; Shcherbakova got 1 point more for the fall on her quad vs. Young You's triple axel, and was able to net more points repeating the triple flip twice vs. Young You with 2 double axels.
  • Look at Young You last season at Skate Canada, she was given credit for the full rotation on the triple axel, but with a fall after GOE the triple axel was scored at 4 points, then take out the 1 point deduction for the fall, she got 3 points for the jump. Protocol link
    • She did 2 double axels which netted her 4.62 and 9.69 points - so 14.31 points
  • Shcherbakova at Worlds this year fell on her quad flip, so after the GOE deduction she got 5.5 points, then the 1 point deduction for the fall and she got 4.5 points. Protocol link
    • After the quad flip fall, she could still do 2 triple flips that got her 11.24 and 12.55 points each - 23.79 points

 

[LiamForeman]

They won't put Anna and Kamila together at the same GP event, especially at the "home" one.

They also won't change the pairings. They won't have THAT much jurisdiction over their placements. And they didn't change the top pairings when the 3A turned senior. They're even less likely to do that with the Olympics so soon. They'll have the reigning World's champion, the reigning Junior World's champion, and the reigning GPF and Euros champion. (They'll also have Liza, Sasha, and Daria as Junior World/World's medalists.)

So hopefully it will be Anna/Maiia at Skate America and then at Rostelecom. I wouldn't be surprised if Medvedeva gets the host spot there either. Or it could be used at the last moment since Rostelecom is the final competition in the series to give another skater (Sinitsina, Frolova) who maybe got a bronze or better to compete there for a chance at the GPF?

 

[Novalis]

I'm just going to throw it out there. Here's how it will go. You read it here first:

GP 1 and GP 4. Skate America and NHK Trophy
Sasha, Dasha and Maiia

GP 2 and GP 5. Skate Canada and Internationaux da France
Liza, Kamila and Zhenya

GP 3 and GP 6. Cup of China and Rostelecom Cup
Anna, Alyona and extra girl

Yes, Dasha and Maiia will both be paired with Sasha (possibly Eteri's influence). D and M have very little to lose and the other "2nd round" picks Alyona and Kamila will not be put up against Sasha.

Kamila will skate with the age 20+ girls. It's a nice enviroment for her: to compete at GP for the first time and travel with these two very experienced lovely ladies, who I don't think can be that intimitating to her. Kamila will sweep the gold medals in Canada and France!

Anna will have to go to China again. But I think that she's the one who's turn is to do the Rostelecom. She even missed out this season. She will be paired with Alyona. And I don't see that as a fierce rivalry at this point. Eteri just wants the girls to bring home gold and silver.
the "extra girl" will be two different girls getting one go. Nugumanova I'm guessing and idk. We'll see.

My prediction also includes Alina not being interested in the GP series.

 

[Anya00]

How does everyone think PCS will look next year between Anna, Alyona, and Kamila, especially if any of them are paired for the GPs?

 

[flanker]

Question: Two seasons ago, for the SGP, the top 3 were paired with the next 3. (Anna/Liza, Sasha/Med, and Alena/Zag). Who do you think they will pair up next season? The top 3 seeds are Anna/Liza/Sasha for next season. And then you have Valieva/Usacheva/Khromykh. If I were RusFed, I think the priority should be Valieva to win everything leading up to the Olympics. So I would pair Liza/Valieva since Liza is much less competition for Valieva. Anna is world champion and also a fave for the OGM, so I would pair Anna/Maiia because Maiia is the least competition of the lower 3 (for now, things can change I know). That leaves Sasha paired with Daria.

So for the SGP we'd see together Anna/Maiia, Liza/Kamila, and Sasha/Daria.

Of course this is leaving out Alyona. I'm not sure which pairing I would put her with though. Since she also could be OGM material, she needs to be in the weakest pairing to possibly win her events and make GPF. Which do you think is the weakest of the pairings? I'm thinking Anna/Maiia. I hope Anna selects Skate America, since that would possibly mean we'd see Anna, Maiia, and Alyona there. That would be amazing!

When do assignments come out?

I'm just going to throw it out there. Here's how it will go. You read it here first:

GP 1 and GP 4. Skate America and NHK Trophy
Sasha, Dasha and Maiia

GP 2 and GP 5. Skate Canada and Internationaux da France
Liza, Kamila and Zhenya

GP 3 and GP 6. Cup of China and Rostelecom Cup
Anna, Alyona and extra girl

Yes, Dasha and Maiia will both be paired with Sasha (possibly Eteri's influence). D and M have very little to lose and the other "2nd round" picks Alyona and Kamila will not be put up against Sasha.

Kamila will skate with the age 20+ girls. It's a nice enviroment for her: to compete at GP for the first time and travel with these two very experienced lovely ladies, who I don't think can be that intimitating to her. Kamila will sweep the gold medals in Canada and France!

Anna will have to go to China again. But I think that she's the one who's turn is to do the Rostelecom. She even missed out this season. She will be paired with Alyona. And I don't see that as a fierce rivalry at this point. Eteri just wants the girls to bring home gold and silver.
the "extra girl" will be two different girls getting one go. Nugumanova I'm guessing and idk. We'll see.

My prediction also includes Alina not being interested in the GP series.

I expect the same pairing as @LiamForeman for the same reasons. Anna won everything this season and has shown the nerves of steel and Kamila is taken as the most promising, so those two will probably be the biggest favourites by the FFKKR. Similarly Sasha is still another favourite with her tech content. So the first three will be Anna, Kamila, Sasha and Maiia, Liza and Daria will be assigned to them in this order. Don't know about Aliona yet, also not sure who the other two girls will be but I guess Liza Nugumanova and Sofia Samodurova (or maybe Zhenya, but I still don't see that).

As for the assignments, Anna was traditionally assigned to the earliest competitions (first JGP in 2018/19, first GP in 2019/20, first RC stage in 2020/21, I would expect similar logic. After all her level of english directly calls for being assigned to a competition in an english speaking country But the question is whether they will want her at Rostelecom or they will send her to Japan. I again think that the japanese audience is tuned positively for Anna (she was invited for the shows there before she even started to compete internationally in juniors). I also don't think they wil send Aliona into the direct competition with Sasha yet (unless Aliona completely restore her stellar form from the 2019/20 during the short time before the assignments), so I think she will have to deal with Kamila and Liza T. (the fight of triple Axels). The other version would be swithichg her with Maiia or Liza N., but I again don't think they will want Aliona to compete with Anna yet.

So, my guess would be:
GP 1 (SA) and GP 4 (NHK): Anna+Maiia+Liza N.
GP 2 (SC) and GP 5 (IdF): Sasha+Daria+Sofia
GP 3 (CoC) and GP 6 (Rost): Kamila+Liza T.+Aliona

I usually was very unsuccesful with predictions, but it seems that the recent success with the WTT encouraged me

 

[silveruskate]

My point in being more conservative with triple axels vs. quads was in regards to the SP a fall on a triple axel will harm you far more than a fall on a quad or I also a fall on a triple axel in a smaller scale in the FS can be absorbed better because you have the additional elements for points. But I can't remember too many instances of skaters attempting a triple axel only in the FS and not trying it in the SP

• Attempted a quad still gives you the options of doing a triple of that same jump 2 times without Zayaking whereas a triple axel you can then only do the double axel twice, which the double axel is a low scoring jump, only 3.3 points BV and generally judges don't give as big of GOEs on a double vs. a triple jump.
• Here are a couple point layouts. 1 is Shcherbakova falling on her quad flip and the other Young You falling on her triple axel; Shcherbakova got 1 point more for the fall on her quad vs. Young You's triple axel, and was able to net more points repeating the triple flip twice vs. Young You with 2 double axels.
  • Look at Young You last season at Skate Canada, she was given credit for the full rotation on the triple axel, but with a fall after GOE the triple axel was scored at 4 points, then take out the 1 point deduction for the fall, she got 3 points for the jump. Protocol link
    • She did 2 double axels which netted her 4.62 and 9.69 points - so 14.31 points
  • Shcherbakova at Worlds this year fell on her quad flip, so after the GOE deduction she got 5.5 points, then the 1 point deduction for the fall and she got 4.5 points. Protocol link
    • After the quad flip fall, she could still do 2 triple flips that got her 11.24 and 12.55 points each - 23.79 points

Why does it matter what the new jump is. Anna could have done a 3A instead of the 4F, and have the exact same layout otherwise.

 

[starlight97]

How does everyone think PCS will look next year between Anna, Alyona, and Kamila, especially if any of them are paired for the GPs?

Lots of ifs.
If Anna can skate clean with quads and so can Kamila with her content, they'll give Anna the highest PCS in the beginning of the season, until she has lost to Kamila for the first time, which should be GPF, then judges will switch allegiance and start pushing Kamila so she comes into the OG nicely set up.

Alena is a bit of a wild card now. Even if she regains her 3A and goes clean idk if they'll still support her in the way they used to.

Sad reality that PCS have to be predicted like this and not by actual performance, but that's Figure Skating.