Ashley Wagner has come a long way

[museksk8r]

Wagner's problem is that even when she skates cleanly she does not score high enough for anyone decent who also skates well to beat her. At the 2008 Nationals she skated the 2 programs of her life with a triple lutz-triple loop in both, and still lost to Rachel Flatt of all people. That is why she has always been in the shadow of Flatt, Nagasu, Czisny, Meissner, and Zhang, even in her own country. I am happy to see her skating well this year but the only way she will make the World team is if one of Czisny or Nagasu bombs quite badly at Nationals, and she capatilizes by hitting 2 perfect programs.

Rachael had a much better resume and reputation with the judges as a junior skater than Ashley did, and IMO, there's no question that Flatt had better programs in the 2008 season than Wagner did. I don't think Ashley started coming into her own with her programs until the 2009 season when she joined Priscilla Hill. I personally couldn't stand Ashley's programs/choreography before the 2009 season. Flatt, on the other hand, had her best programs in the 2008 season and she hasn't topped those programs since, except for her Firebird LP this season, IMO. If Rachael could only skate that LP clean with attack and in peak fitness/shape, it could become the best program of her career I think. Unfortunately for her, I have never seen her be more off in terms of being competition ready. I think she is juggling way too much right now (major coaching change, big move away from home, 1st semester as a college freshman with a stacked schedule, and on top of all that being a competitive figure skater traveling all around the world). I'm amazed how competitive athletes are able to juggle college and their sport and many of them have other jobs as well. Given the state of Nagasu's lackluster programs this season, I really don't think Wagner needs her to bomb as you say in order to have a hope of making the World team. Mirai's LP is without question the worst she's ever had, IMO. The reality is Mirai has not beaten Ashley in any portion of any event they've met in this season, both in club competition and in the Grand Prix. Ashley needs to continue that momentum and skate as well as she can at Nationals. She HAS to skate a clean SP! It appears at the moment the team will be 2 of Alissa, Ashley, or Mirai.