Cup of Russia - Preview

[kajsa]

Rochette has only 325.38 points, and both Alissa (169.01 for one event) and Sarah (163.69) are on a pace to beat that, even off fourth place finishes. If they skate well enough to win CoR, they will most likely be way ahead of Joannie's point total. (Of course, they can't both win.)

It was actually Sarah who scored 169.01 points at SA and Alissa scored that 163.69 at SC. (Also Alissa's personal best score is lower than Sarah's total score at SA. It's very close but it's "only" 168.32.)

The Ladies:

Yeah, this is a relatively difficult competition to predict, especially when it comes to the bronze medal. I also think that Sarah and Alissa, most likely, take the two first medals, in that order (i.e. gold for Sarah, silver for Alissa), and Sebestyen is my guess for the bronze.

I especially believe in Sarah because she has skated so well in all her last competitions (Euros, Olys, Worlds, Japan Open and SA). Though she has sometimes doubled or singled some of her jumps, she hasn't fell in any of those events. I have also read a couple of her interviews published in two Swiss newspapers around those competitions and I have to say that she really seems to have a very good and strong attitude at the moment.

True, as we have already seen, for example with Mao Asada at SA, Lambiel at SC and Rochette at TEB, anything can happen.

The men:

Well, I just hope that Klimkin and Berntsson skate well.

 

[SeaniBu]

Sokolova may be the "non-factor factor"- she may not be in the running for a GP spot but she can push someone else off.

I would love to see her perform well, come on Cupcake!!!

The Sarah (I thought she didn't put the "H" on the end of her name??) notion is one I would love to see as well. And Alissa, how is the crowd going to respond to her?? If she doesn't receive good enthusiasm from the audience I don't see her doing her best. I hope they are as nice to her as the Canadian crowd was.

I also see Yoshie doing a better performance than SCan but it not really being a factor. Of course that is somewhat reliant on Cupcake's pro. The better she does the more she smiles Not that it is all that important that she smiles, but it is like "the glass of milk" to go with it. Also it means she did well, and that I love to see of them all.

Pet n Tik for pairs should be exciting. And boy am I looking forward to seeing Morgan again. Hope she and Max do better, but she really kills me with that big 'o smile Then to be followed up with Tanith - I am going to melt again. OH WAIT, Tanith is wearing that plastic stiff dress again hunh??? Well I hope they do a great anyway. J/K not even that dress could rune it for her looks.:agree: a bow on the back and some "wispy" soft chiffon to replace - or just go over the top of one layer of that stiff tooling and I think I would like it.

 

[Mathman]

It was actually Sarah who scored 169.01 points at SA and Alissa scored that 163.69 at SC. (Also Alissa's personal best score is lower than Sarah's total score at SA. It's very close but it's "only" 168.32.)

Thanks for the correction. Actually, these point totals are quite telling. Alissa skated her absolute perfect best at Skate Canada last year and it only came to 168 points. Ando and Kim are capable of hitting in the 180s.

...I also think that Sarah and Alissa, most likely, take the two first medals, in that order (i.e. gold for Sarah, silver for Alissa), and Sebestyen is my guess for the bronze.

That would be a great outcome for Sarah and Julia -- they would both make the finals!

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

If either Meier or Czisny wins CoR she will beat Meissner on the first tie-breaker and almost surely beat Rochette on the second tie-breaker.

According to your rationale, they will also need the required number of points to overtake Rochette if and only if one of them wins COR. Remember one must win first before we go to tie breaking.

Joe

 

[Zanzibar]

As far as the men's event goes - which will probably be the most interesting event at Cup of Russia - it is Joubert's to lose. Johnny will have the crowd going for him - but they also like Joubert, especially with Plushenko sitting this season out. If Brian skates anywhere near as well as he already has this season at Nationals and TEB, he'll win.

 

[antmanb]

As far as the men's event goes - which will probably be the most interesting event at Cup of Russia - it is Joubert's to lose. Johnny will have the crowd going for him - but they also like Joubert, especially with Plushenko sitting this season out. If Brian skates anywhere near as well as he already has this season at Nationals and TEB, he'll win.

Has french nationals been and gone already?

Ant

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Has french nationals been and gone already?

Ant

I was asking about the French, Japanese and Russian Nats the other day and no one replied. They are before the New Year. Aren't they?

Joe

 

[R.D.]

I believe the Japanese Nats is around Christmastime. Not sure about the other two though

 

[Jaana]

I believe the Japanese Nats is around Christmastime. Not sure about the other two though

I believe the same applies for Russian Nationals, too.

 

[Mathman]

As far as the men's event goes - which will probably be the most interesting event at Cup of Russia - ....

Men, schmem, it's the ladies where the action is in this one!

I don't think there has ever been a GP event before where every one of the eight contestants has a legitimate chance at the podium: Czisny, Korpi, Liu, Meier, Onda, Sawada, Sebestyen and Sokolova (sounds like a brokerage house ). Any one of them could turn it on, any of them could bomb. With all the placements in the GP final on the line, it will be pins and needles time.

Isn't it about time for it to start? :yes:

 

[R.D.]

I dunno. The events where the BIG competitors are tend to be a draw for me. Like SA and TEB.

BTW...this must be the first season in a long time where ALL of the top contenders (in ladies) expected to challenge for the 2007 world medals are participating in the Grand Prix. I think that's what's made this series more exciting than usual. And it's about time, too.

 

[Mathman]

I dunno. The events where the BIG competitors are tend to be a draw for me. Like SA and TEB.

What? Why the change of heart?

I was counting on you to help me root for the underdogs. Aren't you tired the same old, same old -- Kimmie, Miki, Mao, Yu-na, yadda, yadda, yadda?

Go Sarah Meier!

 

[Mathman]

BTW...this must be the first season in a long time where ALL of the top contenders (in ladies) expected to challenge for the 2007 world medals are participating in the Grand Prix. I think that's what's made this series more exciting than usual. And it's about time, too.

Yeah. I blame the Olympics. In an Olympic year -- in fact, in the two or three years leading up to the Olympics --nobody cares about anything except positioning themselves for the Big Show. Phooey on the Oympics.

Maybe Speedy's plan of upping the financial incentive for competing in the full GP series is paying off.

 

[R.D.]

What? Why the change of heart?

I was counting on you to help me root for the underdogs. Aren't you tired the same old, same old -- Kimmie, Miki, Mao, Yu-na, yadda, yadda, yadda?

Go Sarah Meier!

Miki, Mao and Yu-Na are now old? that's a good one. I suppose we just can't wait for the next set of young 'uns to appear


The only "veterans" really still around (well, at least the important ones) are Sokolova (!), Sebestyen and Suguri.

I've been waiting for some "fresh blood" for a while and it now finally looks like we're getting it. No more Slutskaya, Kwan, Arakawa, or Cohen any more.

No offense to the skaters but I have a feeling Cup of Russia is basically just a contest to see "who's the best of the rest". I mean that very loosely- in other words, not that the skaters participating are bad but they are all non-contenders in the long run. No star power. Out of that lot I like Alyssa the most and I hope she can pull out a win but I'm not going to bet on it. I think what's her name- Meier- may be more likely. Or even Sokolova.

The best thing about a "second-rate" field, though, is that there is no one who stands out to take it all. It's basically anyone's game to take.

 

[Zanzibar]

Has french nationals been and gone already?

Ant

Sorry - I meant the French Masters event - Brian's big kick-off competition of the season.

 

[krenseby]

Re:

Miki, Mao and Yu-Na are now old? that's a good one. I suppose we just can't wait for the next set of young 'uns to appear


The only "veterans" really still around (well, at least the important ones) are Sokolova (!), Sebestyen and Suguri.

I've been waiting for some "fresh blood" for a while and it now finally looks like we're getting it. No more Slutskaya, Kwan, Arakawa, or Cohen any more.

No offense to the skaters but I have a feeling Cup of Russia is basically just a contest to see "who's the best of the rest". I mean that very loosely- in other words, not that the skaters participating are bad but they are all non-contenders in the long run. No star power. Out of that lot I like Alyssa the most and I hope she can pull out a win but I'm not going to bet on it. I think what's her name- Meier- may be more likely. Or even Sokolova.

The best thing about a "second-rate" field, though, is that there is no one who stands out to take it all. It's basically anyone's game to take.

Red Dog, please tell me why it ends up that way! Why not just spread the best ladies around evenly, so that the field is not stacked in some Grand Prix events and pretty empty in others.

If I were assigning GP spots, I'd have Mao Asada at the cup of China and Kimmie Meissner at the Cup of Russia. That would make those two a bit more competitive. And the other GP events wouldn't suffer. Skate America without Mao would have still been pretty competitive because of Ando + Meissner. Tropee Eric Bombard would also do just as well without Kimmie because Ando + Kim would be competing there.

Btw, due to my arrangement, Kimmie would have no problems securing a GPFinal spot because she'd get a very high placement at the Cup of Russia Same for Mao, who would be very highly placed at Cup of China.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

It's true, Mao only has 11 points so far. To be on the safe side she should win the NKH event to make a total of 26 points and tie with Yu Na.

Anything less she figures in the Rochette, Meissner grouping. This event could turn into one great big tie for so many skaters and the points, the points, the points, which for the most part will be subjective with different judges and their whimsical ways. What a way to qualify!

Hard to believe Rochette with a gold GP and Meissner with a Silver/Bronze GPs are out of the picture. The possibility of 5 Asian Ladies plus Julia exists!!

Joe

 

[MKFSfan]

I think a country can only send 3 skaters??? Yu-Na is practically a shoe-in. I'd think Mao and Miki may make it. I'm hoping Fumie is the 3rd Japanese skater!!!

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I think a country can only send 3 skaters???

If that were the case then they would not be able to send more than 3 invitations to compete. All the Japanese Ladies earned the right to compete in the GPs. The Rules are different here.

Yu-Na is practically a shoe-in. I'd think Mao and Miki may make it. I'm hoping Fumie is the 3rd Japanese skater!!!

Yu Na is basically safe to skate the Finals.
In order for the 3 remaining Japanese Ladies to avoid the Rochette/Meissner clutch.... Mao must Win NHK and tie YuNa. Yukari and Fumie must get silver to be on the safe side. However, all 3 could qualify through the tie breaker of 24 pts.

If Julia gets a silver at COR she ties YuNa and qualifies safely. Sara and Alyssa must win to get into the Rochette/Meissner clutch, and then worry about the tie breaker.

There is good possibility that the GP Finals will be:

Miki - Yu Na - Mao - Yukari - Fumie - Julia.

But hey - anthing can happen.

Joe

 

[Mathman]

I don't think it is possible for all three of Mao, Fumie and Nakano to beat Rochette. Whoever finishes third at NHK will be behind Joannie on the first tie-breaker, regardless of points.

But they could conceivably all make the final if neither Meier nor Czisny wins Cup of Russia and Sebestyen finishes fifth.

We'll know in a couple of days!