Does anyone think Michelle has a chance?

[Kathy]

Mzheng

Do you know if Michelle has lost weight? Any other tidbits you can share - I know you said RA said the choreography from TT was "very good" any other comments? BTW I agree with you that the pressure will be different for her this time. She will be the sentimental favorite and the Media darling - but the focus will be - "can she do it - against all reasonable odds." As the younger competitors "ought" to have the edge. If she doesn't win, she still be seen a a great champ to have tried. And I think she'll have a more mature and realistic appreciation for the fact she may not once again reach her dream. Given that I thinkit will perhaps free her to give it her all - at least I hope so.

And wasn't her SP in 2004 the won in which she got the deduciton for going over the time limit?

 

[mzheng]

Someone else at MKF that she was seen with her personal trainer, and trainned at gymroom in new rink. I heard the smething that she's being doing most off ice trainning. The 'thinner' was the comment from someone who saw her recently, I guessed it was the result of her off ice trainning. Actually most elite skaters are, at this time of the season. At least in S. Cal. The words traveled fast around rinks you know.

As for original question if she can medal, from what I had heard last season and so far this season, IMO/IHO, she certainly has.....The problem, imo, is she has to throw the 'cautious' out of the window, while at the sametimes throw the difficult jumps and level3/4 into the program. Don't mind the successful rate of jumps, slopyness of transitions, ugly positions. If she can refine them, do them; if she can't refine them to her satisfiction, do them anyway. And of course bring back all those MIFs (which she still does them in exhibitions). With CoP it's a total new ball game now, cleanest/refinest is not the key factor any more. What matters most now is 'difficulty'/'points'.....And also lend the pressure to someone else.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Of course the other top skaters have to deal with the type of pressure you describe. But there's a difference between personal/competition pressure and MEDIA pressure. In the US, I'm sure Michelle will get the Dan Jansen treatment and - even if she's a long shot for a OGM - be subjected to the same level of intense MEDIA pressure that she felt in 98 and 02. The only difference this time around is that she won't be expected to win, but the media focus will be there to play it up nonetheless. In Italy, Carolina will also get that attention from Italian media, and Irina from Russian media.

C=mon Sandee - Michelle has been around for how many years? If she can't deal with the pressure of Media hype then she should lose. But I think she can deal with that. She has nothing to lose in this coming Olys. If she wins, fine! If not, so what? She still remains the most celebrated figure skater since Sonia Henie. That's fact. Tara who? Sarah who? Only if an American like Sasha wins the Olys will the mediia matter, and in two years, check me out, it will be Sasha who? If a Russian like Irina wins the Olys, it will be a one day media blitz and that is all. She'll get no endoresements from the American business communitey. Let's hope those weathy Russians in her own country can do it on their own, and not rely on the Americans to carry their athletes to further heights.

It does get boring to read that Americans must celebrate the Russian winners because those Russian olegarchies wont. and they should.

Joe

 

[mzheng]

Let's hope those weathy Russians in her own country can do it on their own, and not rely on the Americans to carry their athletes to further heights.

Joe

Sure you will not be dissapointed. Remember the huge solid gold medal she got from a rich Russian bussiness man after 2002 SLC?

As for MK, I agree with what Joe said. She and/or shall we say her family was busy working in last a few years to have her future secured? She is settled for lifetime, a gold or not weren't affect her future life style. Except may be more 'famouse' than she could handle.

 

[Eldredgefan2001]

Of course she does. All of the top ladies have a chance. Why not Michelle, since she is still one of the top ladies in the sport.


Kathie

 

[kyla2]

ITA with Tripleflutz

ITA with Tripleflutz regarding Michelle's chances of winning the gold. She has stated the situation quite objectively and unfortunately, I couldn't agree more. Michelle has to accomplish too much, too soon for her to be in prime fighting form. I think the best we can hope for is that she and Rafael will have a "smart" plan for a solid and competitive program and capitalize in every possible way. She can't reinvent her spins-too late I'm afraid. I only wish.Then it will be up to the others. If she has any shot at all, it will be because the others have failed to deliver. If Irina maintains her current form, it's hers to win or lose.

 

[Eeyora]

Good Point Joe it seems like over the past couple O)lympics all the OGM has produced has been 15 minutes of fame.

 

[Excidra2001]

C=mon Sandee - Michelle has been around for how many years? If she can't deal with the pressure of Media hype then she should lose. But I think she can deal with that. She has nothing to lose in this coming Olys. If she wins, fine! If not, so what? She still remains the most celebrated figure skater since Sonia Henie. That's fact. Tara who? Sarah who? Only if an American like Sasha wins the Olys will the mediia matter, and in two years, check me out, it will be Sasha who? If a Russian like Irina wins the Olys, it will be a one day media blitz and that is all. She'll get no endoresements from the American business communitey. Let's hope those weathy Russians in her own country can do it on their own, and not rely on the Americans to carry their athletes to further heights.

It does get boring to read that Americans must celebrate the Russian winners because those Russian olegarchies wont. and they should.

Joe

I don't quite agree with you here, Joe. Michelle is great but there have been many women before her who have accomplished far more then she has and are also right up there with Sonia Henie. You ask, Sarah who? she is Olympic champion ,same goes for Tara Lipinski.
The media is not stuck on past Olympic champions because they have had their time in the spotlight and are not out there each season producing new programs, like Kwan does. Ones Michelle decides to hang her skates, i'm guessing the media will treat her much in the same way as Hughes, and Lipinski, they might write about what she's up to after eligible skating but thats about it.

If a Russian like Irina wins the Olys, it will be a one day media blitz and that is all. She'll get no endoresements from the American business communitey. Let's hope those weathy Russians in her own country can do it on their own, and not rely on the Americans to carry their athletes to further heights.

Well I think thats fair, considering Irina is a Russian. Why would the American media write about a Russian woman winning the Olympic title, its been two American ladies back to back winning the title, i'm sure they would love to see an American woman taking it.
The story will be much different in Russia though, they'll celebrate. Slutskaya received so much attention after winning her first world title that she was invited to present at award shows, guest on TV shows and etc. Imagine if she wins the Olympic title, I think it'll do good things for her.

Let's hope those weathy Russians in her own country can do it on their own, and not rely on the Americans to carry their athletes to further heights

Well I fail to see how the Russias have relied on the Americans to carry their athletes to "further heights"? Care to expand on that?
Its not like the lovely Americans decided to adopte the poor Russian skaters and made them wealthy and bigger then they ever were.

 

[nymkfan51]

I think she'll tweak her program at best she can, maybe hold the spiral longer, try to regain all her jumps, and a few other little things etc. but still be pretty much the same skater at Nats as she has been the last few years.

Well, I'm certain there are more than a few people hoping for this to happen, but I wouldn't count on it if I were them.

All I can say is I hope she hears about people writing her off in July. I'd like Raphael to post it on the bulletin board at EW rink for her to see every day.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Excidra - Good response to my post.

Regarding the expectation of America to bring more glory to the Russian Oly winners is based on what I have read in reports on the internet. For example, I believe both Kulic and Yagudin have complained about their treatment in SOI and COI. Neither show has given them the build-up they believe they deserve such as appearing last to skate in the show; or given them better contracts because they are the Oly winners, or increased their salaries for an extended contract, etc. Well, welcome to the world of business, boys.

I do think those extremely wealthy Russians should put up some money for a great ice show in Russia and touring Europe. There is plenty of Russian talent to make the show very attractive and profitable. I also believe there is more of a demand for ice shows in Russia than in America.

I think I was a bit hasty mentioning Irina, whom I believe is quite happy in Russia. The money she earns in America goes for her medical expenses and that makes sense.

Joe

 

[nymkfan51]

....MICHELLE has said that her body can't take more training than she's been doing for the past few years. And the amount of training she can do produces a MICHELLE skating at the level we've seen.
....She says her body doesn't recover like a teenagers, So I can't see her suddenly switching to a heavy training schedule and traning up from now until the OLYM in Feb., in order to raise her levels in addition to regaining her jumps, and becoming a superior spinner, if she tries it she'll use herself up and burn out the way Irina did more than once.
....Even more likely would be an accumulation of minor injuries that would interfere with training and possibly affect her performance at Nats. in Jan. Maybe a 16 or 17 year old could train and train, but someone Michelle's age can't.
....Now, remembering that I want to talk objective, real world issues, not wishful thinking, and if, as she's said, in recent years, she's been doing as much as her body would allow. HOW CAN SHE DO SO MUCH MORE?
tripleflutz

First of all, Michelle has never said her body can't take more training. What she HAS said is that it takes her longer to get to the point she wants to be now, than it did when she was younger. Yes, she is not a 16 year old anymore and she is very cognizant of that fact ... thus she has started full out training in June instead of August. What she has also done is give her body somewhat of a break the last few years ... not pushing it to the limits she did all the years before. And this in my opinion, was done with the hope that she will have a more rested and stronger body to go through another Olympic season. Of course the possibility exists that she may not be able to bring her performance level up to 100%, but I believe that was a risk she was willing to take ... because obviously she felt skating the last 3 years the same as she had before would have done her in for sure.
Only time will tell.

 

[Mathman]

giving one point for each level, just to show the difference

Another way to look at it is to check out the actual numbers. For her two level 3 spins and two level 2 spins Irina got a total of 10.7 base points. Michelle, with two level ones and two level twos, got 8.8 points.

So Michelle gave up a total of 1.9 points on all of her spins combined (about the value of a double Lutz).

If she worked real hard and upgraded her Camel spin from level 1 to level 2, that would gain her an extra 0.4 points (1.2 versus 1.6)

But she could gain twice as much if she worked on her musical interpretation instead. In Interpretation, Irina got 13.26 points (factored) to Michelle's 12.40. Here are the criteria for Interpretation, for singles:

*Effortless movement in time to the music.
*Expression of the music's style, character and rhythm.
*Use of finesse to reflect the nuances of music.

If only Michelle could do these things as well as Irina, the NJS would reward her twice as heavily as it would for a more difficult spin. It's all right there in the ISU rule book.:yes:

Mathman

 

[R.D.]

Tara who? Sarah who? Only if an American like Sasha wins the Olys will the mediia matter, and in two years, check me out, it will be Sasha who? If a Russian like Irina wins the Olys, it will be a one day media blitz and that is all. She'll get no endoresements from the American business communitey. Let's hope those weathy Russians in her own country can do it on their own, and not rely on the Americans to carry their athletes to further heights.

Ditto. ITA.

And to those who are counting on Michelle to make a host of improvements, actually close to reinvent herself in a few months, I think they're asking way too much of Michelle. I don't think its humanly possible for a 25 year old skater to suddenly improve in so many areas in one off season. Michelle doesn't train that way, and if she tried it she might burn out before Nats. I think Michelle will keep doing what she's done in the past few years, skip the GP of maybe just one comp. and skip the finals. She'll try to save her body for Nats. and the Olym.

Couldn't have said it better- ITA. Too little, too late IMO. However, I'm not ruling out the possibility of a huge shocker.

The media is not stuck on past Olympic champions because they have had their time in the spotlight and are not out there each season producing new programs, like Kwan does. Ones Michelle decides to hang her skates, i'm guessing the media will treat her much in the same way as Hughes, and Lipinski, they might write about what she's up to after eligible skating but thats about it.

I agree with this, too- MK has stayed in the game long enough and has enough love from the fans to get endorsement deals, newspaper articles, etc. The others you mentioned were just a blip on the radar- peaked at the right moment, then basked in the glory afterwards. That is your 15 minutes of fame right there. MK just has the longevity thing going on, that is the difference.

During the Olympics, the American press will hype only the American athletes, and that's understandable. I don't see a huge celebration here if a non-American wins the LFS OGM.

About me not taking risks...well, there's a certain "risk" involved in posting your thoughts and letting yourself be heard on a public messageboard, no?

We can sit here and do the talking, but the skaters at that competition next year will be doing the walking.

 

[nymkfan51]

But she could gain twice as much if she worked on her musical interpretation instead. In Interpretation, Irina got 13.26 points (factored) to Michelle's 12.40. Here are the criteria for Interpretation, for singles:
*Effortless movement in time to the music.
*Expression of the music's style, character and rhythm.
*Use of finesse to reflect the nuances of music.
If only Michelle could do these things as well as Irina, the NJS would reward her twice as heavily as it would for a more difficult spin. It's all right there in the ISU rule book.:yes:
Mathman

If you ask me (which you didn't), Irina is way overmarked in this department. And this is exactly where the judges give a lift to those they like. Look at the descriptions ... any judge could justify any mark they choose to give in these areas. So Michelle could be as effortless, musical or nuanced as ever, and still be marked behind Irina. I accept that others think Irina is marked just right ... just mentioning her because she is who you compared Michelle to.

 

[Mathman]

Good Point Joe it seems like over the past couple Olympics all the OGM has produced has been 15 minutes of fame.

Sports is funny that way. Speaking for myself, I don't remember who won the Super Bowl last year (although I watched it), or the year before.

I don't remember who won the World Series in 2002, much less who won the major league batting crown that year.

I don't remember if Willie Mays ever won a championship, but I do remember seeing (on the radio ) all those fantastic over-the-shoulder catches he used to make in center at the Polo Grounds. And I remember his last at-bat, when the announcer said, "At age 42 Willie might not strike terror into the hearts of opposing teams like he did at 19. Still, when the Say Hey Kid steps to the plate with that old look in his eye, the pitcher starts muttering to himself, 'oh, bleep!' "

I think we remember most the athletes we watched grow up in the klieg lights, who managed to do it all with style, grace, and class, and who mastered the art of remaining their own sweet self under relentless scrutiny. Ervin (Magic) Johnson won the Michigan State high school championship (Lansing High), the NCAA championship (Michigan State) and the NBA championship in four years. He never lost that ability to bring a smile to the face of everyone who met him.

I think Michelle will be like that.

Mathman

 

[Mathman]

If you ask me (which you didn't),...

But of course I am asking you! Anyone who wants to come on and say, "Hey you idiot, Michelle is super in these areas," please feel free. If nobody does, I'll go over to the MK Forum and see what they think over there!

MM

 

[R.D.]

Sports is funny that way. Speaking for myself, I don't remember who won the Super Bowl last year (although I watched it), or the year before.

2005: New England Patriots over Philadelphia Eagles
2004: New England Patriots over Carolina Panthers
2003: Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Oakland Raiders

 

[R.D.]

If nobody does, I'll go over to the MK Forum and see what they think over there!

MM

Oh come on, most posters at any fan board are going to think their favorite is the goddess, without flaws, etc. Especially the fans of a certain skater... she will go unnamed...

 

[R.D.]

I think that if all of us had the opportunity to see these skaters live, our opinions and thoughts might change. If it is true what the COI-goers and competition buffs say, that TV tends to highlight different elements of different skaters' skating, then there might be something we're missing...or I'm missing. Especially in the case of Irina (it's hard for me to tell what so great about her. I mean, she's very good, but I just cannot see from the medium I've been given). Cohen to a certain extent to, although people say she looks better on TV. Even on TV she's been pretty zzzzzzz lately to me.

 

[nymkfan51]

Thanks for letting me have my say MM!