Evaluating judging trends: A study on GPF

[karlowens2]

Of the top 4 men 80% of their technical score came from jumping passes (it was 74% just 9 months ago at Worlds). The other elements value has stayed the same - 4-6 points. The high scoring element last year was 12-15. Now the top skaters have 15-19 point elements. So it really doesn't pay to spend much time on spins, footwork, etc. There just aren't amy points there. Jin may be the new prototype ice skater. Some guy with an uncanny jumping ability. Before him noone had a reliable 4Lutz. This guy comes on the scene with a 4L+3T -19 points. Why not double quads? Or Quad axels-3t combinations? Those would 22-25 points. Someone is going to be able to do it. Coaches and Federations will talk about the importance of skating skills, but they are going to pick the quy with the biggest jumps. Given the way the points work they'd be foolish not to.

 

[qwertyskates]

I think it certainly will. But you know, the difference between Yuzu and Boyang is that if the cap is lifted for PCS it will only raise Yuzu's scoring potential through the roof or into the stratosphere...more than any other skater. Whereas for Boyang, it will put him further behind the current leaders.

This is what makes it questionable to me, when Jin burst on the scene, and before Hanyu changed his jump layout, the talk was about CAPPING TES to balance PCS 100:100. Now that Hanyu is the clear TES winner, the goal posts are shifting to RAISING the PCS ceiling, the "strategy" to balance has changed, in order to privilege one even more and disadvantage the other. Rules are rules, they should not be changed in mid-game to disadvantage/privilege one skater over another.

 

[qwertyskates]

I think the concern about Jin's TES arose because of the significant disparity between his TES and PCS that made some people concerned that he would win everything based on TES alone and push the sport in an "unbalanced direction", thus the suggestion made by some people to raise the maximum possible PCS to match the maximum possible TES to ensure "balance". Also he did push some skaters who were more complete skaters and had higher PCS but could not compete with him technically off the podium at both his GP events. Personally I have no problems if Jin won on the strength of his TES and did not see it as reason to change the scoring system.

Under the current system, Jin is already held back from winning by his low-ish PCS, i.e. he is sufficiently punished for lack thereof. With that PCS, he will not beat even Shoma or Denis on a good day.

With PCS being equal, Hanyu did beat Patrick with TES, mostly his highscoring, difficult jumps. If quads are limited or TES capped, as was proposed because of Jin, definitely Hanyu will be handicapped by it as well (I believe I even pointed out that the high TES athletes would include Hanyu). Well, the tune is now changed.

What I want to point out is that we've all got to be principled about the system, it is unfair to *any* skater, who is scoring well under the current rules to have the rules changed in reaction to his or her success, as long as no cheating is involved. The playing field must always be level, or people will start losing faith in the fairness of the sport.

 

[gkelly]

I think we're at a point now where the ISU needs to start thinking about how they want to deal with PCS especially for the elite quad-jumping men, some of whom have shown that they can easily score more in TES than the maximum possible PCS.

The options would be changing the factors for PCS, changing the number of separate PCS, changing the 0-10 component scale to an open-ended one, and/or educating/encouraging judges to avoid wholesale PCS inflation especially as a reaction to high jump content and educating/encouraging judges or restructuring the judging task so judges can do a better job of distinguishing each component independently of the other components and of the technical elements.

Ultimately it's not so much what the total PCS numbers are but the size of the differences between OK, good, better, and best that will determine whether PCS has a meaningful effect on final results.

But I don't think they should or probably would rush significant changes into effect within this Olympic cycle. At most, I'd expect at the 2016 ISU Congress for there to be some minor changes proposed for the near future, or a more significant change proposed and possibly accepted that would not take effect until the 2018-19 season. For a really significant change to the basic scoring structure, I'd expect discussions now but years before a new structure would be put into effect, by which time the current top skaters might be retired or past their prime and the current juniors and novices would be the ones affected. With enough advance notice, the skaters could adjust their training accordingly.

 

[blackey]

I think we're at a point now where the ISU needs to start thinking about how they want to deal with PCS especially for the elite quad-jumping men, some of whom have shown that they can easily score more in TES than the maximum possible PCS.

The options would be changing the factors for PCS, changing the number of separate PCS, changing the 0-10 component scale to an open-ended one, and/or educating/encouraging judges to avoid wholesale PCS inflation especially as a reaction to high jump content and educating/encouraging judges or restructuring the judging task so judges can do a better job of distinguishing each component independently of the other components and of the technical elements.

Ultimately it's not so much what the total PCS numbers are but the size of the differences between OK, good, better, and best that will determine whether PCS has a meaningful effect on final results.

But I don't think they should or probably would rush significant changes into effect within this Olympic cycle. At most, I'd expect at the 2016 ISU Congress for there to be some minor changes proposed for the near future, or a more significant change proposed and possibly accepted that would not take effect until the 2018-19 season. For a really significant change to the basic scoring structure, I'd expect discussions now but years before a new structure would be put into effect, by which time the current top skaters might be retired or past their prime and the current juniors and novices would be the ones affected. With enough advance notice, the skaters could adjust their training accordingly.

agree. I don't even think ISU could bring up a better system before 2018, simply increase PCS cannot solve the problem, there are too many things need to be considered. And IMHO, even they do change the rule before 2018, it's only gonna increase the gap between hanyu and other skaters, that's meaningless.

 

[blackey]

This is what makes it questionable to me, when Jin burst on the scene, and before Hanyu changed his jump layout, the talk was about CAPPING TES to balance PCS 100:100. Now that Hanyu is the clear TES winner, the goal posts are shifting to RAISING the PCS ceiling, the "strategy" to balance has changed, in order to privilege one even more and disadvantage the other. Rules are rules, they should not be changed in mid-game to disadvantage/privilege one skater over another.

the problem is not only Hanyu, it's because so many of them break 100. And the young skaters in the future clearly gonna do at least two type of quads which means 2 quads in sp and 3 in fp at least, that's why people start talking about raising pcs.

 

[Interspectator]

This is what makes it questionable to me, when Jin burst on the scene, and before Hanyu changed his jump layout, the talk was about CAPPING TES to balance PCS 100:100. Now that Hanyu is the clear TES winner, the goal posts are shifting to RAISING the PCS ceiling, the "strategy" to balance has changed, in order to privilege one even more and disadvantage the other. Rules are rules, they should not be changed in mid-game to disadvantage/privilege one skater over another.

Oh, I didn't hear that argument. Why would anyone cap TES when this is a sport?
Anyway, I'm interested to see how the maxing out of this current system will change the way skating is scored.

 

[Mrs. P]

I think there's a natural cap to TES = Humanity.

Seriously, these are not robots we're dealing with. The human body -- even one in prime shape -- can only handle so much. Each skater has to decide how much they're willing to exert their body for the skate of getting points.

So I think it's still a risk/reward proposition. So even though spins/steps and overall PCS may not fully make up a TES gap (especially when it's from someone from Hanyu), if can probably make enough of a difference so that skater do not have to be so dependent on multiple quad jumps to succeed. Heck Shoma Uno got 100+ TES on just doing two quads vs. four for Boyang Jin...so there's that.

 

[MaxSwagg]

A cap on TES would be a deliberate attempt to hinder Yuzu and Boyang specifically, and that would be unacceptable.

 

[YesWay]

I think there's a natural cap to TES = Humanity.

Seriously, these are not robots we're dealing with. The human body -- even one in prime shape -- can only handle so much. Each skater has to decide how much they're willing to exert their body for the skate of getting points.

So I think it's still a risk/reward proposition. So even though spins/steps and overall PCS may not fully make up a TES gap (especially when it's from someone from Hanyu), if can probably make enough of a difference so that skater do not have to be so dependent on multiple quad jumps to succeed. Heck Shoma Uno got 100+ TES on just doing two quads vs. four for Boyang Jin...so there's that.

This ^

Hanyu and Jin are truly exceptional: We are not about to see a stream of new skaters who can match Hanyu's all-round skating (scores), nor are we going to see hordes of new skaters who can land 6 quads in a competition or 4Lz's like Jin.

I don't see any need for the scoring system to change on account of those two, or the world records, or anyone with such exceptional technical ability that they can dwarf their PCS with their TES, or anyone who maxes PCS, etc. There will only be ever be a handful of such people...

 

[The Finn]

Google translated

The technical committee of the International Skating Union (ISU) initiates a change in the rules in skating after the Olympic Games in 2018, the reform is largely overdue because of the high results of the Olympic champion in 2014 the Japanese Yuzuru Hanyu, He said the agency "F-Sport" Committee Chairman Alexander Lakernik.

"The technical committee is working on the new provisions of the rules in figure skating, with which we will go to Congress ISU. No decisions yet, but the problem of amendments to the rules I set for 2018. They have matured due to the fact that a number of skaters receiving evaluation close to the maximum, because of what the brilliant performances Yuzuru Hanyu at the Grand Prix Final in Nagano and in Barcelona evaluated almost perfect "- said Lakernik phone.

"At the Congress of 2016 no radical proposals imposed not because of the proximity to the Olympic Games in Korea - continued the agency. - His suggestions for improving the scale GOE we submitted to Congress in 2018. While we are talking about the technical assessment, there are opinions, it is necessary to expand the gradation levels from 7 estimate ("-3 - 3") to 10 layers: or adopts the formula "-5 - 4" or "-4 - 5 ', or in general from 1 to 10.

Lakernik also said: "The assessment of the components we are also going to upgrade, but this project is in the details, we do not yet see because of too different opinions among experts."

http://rsport.ru/figure_skating/20151216/885724915.html

 

[Mathman]

Thanks for the post and the translation, The Finn. There is now a separate thread on this announcement here:

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?57783-Lakernik-ISU-will-initiate-change-of-rules