Everyone is writing off Sotnikova and Asada

[Sam-Skwantch]

Where will Adelina end up after the final Zamboni resurfacing is all but frozen ice? Has having the pesky Lipnitskaia at all three of her last events helped her in preparation for this very tough field of competition and helped in keeping her honest on the ice. What affect has her GPF FS had on the close of her season? Has it lit a fire in her that says never again or will it happen yet again on an even bigger stage? We all know she is beautiful and charming on the ice but can she convince the audience and the judges that she is not just working and actually delivering her very best?

 

[pangtongfan]

She could win a medal or even the gold potentially but she will need to skate perfectly, something she has never done, since Kim and Asada are still better than her so if all make mistakes (and we dont even know Kim will) she will end up behind both, and while Julia isnt better you almost know she will skate perfectly and leave no room for any of the better skaters (apart from Kim) to make mistakes and still beat her. Suzuki if she skates like Nationals will be hard to keep off the podium too, and to a lesser extent Gold if she duplicated her Nationals performance.

So I think she needs her best competition ever if she is going to win a medal of any color, although it is within reach.

 

[Jammers]

It will be a sad day if she medals in Sochi. It will mean a splatfest among the top skaters because Adelina is still a sloppy skater.

 

[gmyers]

I think for Sotnikova to medal or win there would need to be a lot of mistakes from Yuna and Mao and others. Her Euros free skate was good and her best in years and years but she still that had lutz error and missed combo but she put the combo somewhere else without zayaking. Julia I think can medal win almost without others mistakes.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

She has an outside shot at bronze. I'd say Julia has a better shot only because she's more consistent and has high enough technical content to make up the PCS discrepancy between her and Sotnikova.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

It will be a sad day if she medals in Sochi. It will mean a splatfest among the top skaters because Adelina is still a sloppy skater.

I think it would be a happy day. She does a lot of things very well and can get great GOE when she hits her jumps and spins. Depending on how she skates (and how Caro skates) "sloppy" Adelina could have the 3rd highest PCS. And it would be well deserved.

 

[Ven]

Adelina gets underscored compared to Julia, even when she's on. Everyone harps on consistency, but look at Euros SP. By and large, Adelina nailed her program and beat Julia by less than a single point. How on earth is that possible? She gives up some BV on her 3-3 but the difference in PCS and GOE should be much greater. Julia is getting way overscored on her PCS and GOE.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Adelina has been skating very well. Her only consistency issues have been her first jump pass in the FS as of late. I could see her going strong in the SP and causing quite a stir. Yuna might as stated above get a rather ridiculous score as mentioned above. If she doesn't improve her nationals performance I'd be surprised to see it that high. Sorry but she is not the Yuna from 2010 IMO(in that showing)and most likley around +75. No one expects yuna to fall so ill move away from that. Adelina could challenge this score in the area of 72'ish if she sells it. She would be hunting fairly strong in this scenario and make for a good show going into the FS.

I think Adelina is ready for competition and looks to be in top form. I for one was never this confident in her abilities to perform under pressure.

 

[RABID]

Adelina has been skating very well. Her only consistency issues have been her first jump pass in the FS as of late. I could see her going strong in the SP and causing quite a stir. Yuna might as stated above get a rather ridiculous score as mentioned above. If she doesn't improve her nationals performance I'd be surprised to see it that high. Sorry but she is not the Yuna from 2010 IMO(in that showing)and most likley around +75. No one expects yuna to fall so ill move away from that. Adelina could challenge this score in the area of 72'ish if she sells it. She would be hunting fairly strong in this scenario and make for a good show going into the FS.

I think Adelina is ready for competition and looks to be in top form. I for one was never this confident in her abilities to perform under pressure.

We shall see, wont we? More often than not it isn't talent, training or good health that determines who wins but who can "bring it" that day. Can Julia and Adelina embrace all the well wishers and high hopes (or expectations) of those thousands of Russian eyes and voices? Or will it be a bit overwhelming for them? One thing about Mao, YuNa, Carolina and Suzuki, they do know what to expect.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

One thing about Mao, YuNa, Carolina and Suzuki, they do know what to expect.

Very true indeed. Could it possibly also mellow their approach and make them a bit less trigger happy? Suzuki has the most to prove and could benefit from a best of both worlds approach. I would say advantage goes to the vets here.

 

[caseyl23]

The way this season has gone, Adelina's the wildcard in the ladies. If she skates cleanly or mostly clean, she'll probably be on the podium. I think, if there's one thing that's been made clear as the season has developed, it's that a Russian girl is capable of landing on the podium, and the Russian federation prefers that skater to be Adelina. She had a somewhat disappointing debut at Worlds last year, but it seems like she's peaking at the right time heading into the Olympics. If she shows up nervous and gives in to the pressure, however, she'll probably end up about where she did at Worlds last year.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

One thing about Mao, YuNa, Carolina and Suzuki, they do know what to expect.

By the time the Ladies event begins, Ashley, Gracie, Julia, and Adelina will have had Olympic experience as well.

 

[RABID]

By the time the Ladies event begins, Ashley, Gracie, Julia, and Adelina will have had Olympic experience as well.

You mean the Team Event? I suppose so and it could be helpful; I'll grant you that. And who knows it might even give Julia and Adelina an advantage over someone like YuNa not competing in that event. But Mao will also be competing in the team event and THAT will not be helpful to the Russians' chances.

 

[Sasha'sSpins]

We shall see, wont we? More often than not it isn't talent, training or good health that determines who wins but who can "bring it" that day. Can Julia and Adelina embrace all the well wishers and high hopes (or expectations) of those thousands of Russian eyes and voices? Or will it be a bit overwhelming for them? One thing about Mao, YuNa, Carolina and Suzuki, they do know what to expect.

Carolina knew what to expect and it didn't work out for her at either of her Olympics. And many athletes new to the Olympics, without any expectations or experience at that event did great - winning gold.

To me it's kind of like the Olympic lottery or the golden ring. A lot of the favorites can grab it but some just never do - like Kurt Browning and to a much lesser extent Michelle Kwan who at least DID medal in '98 and '02. And Mao too. She did have a fall after all on her way to winning silver in Vancouver. I wonder if the judges will be very as forgiving in Sochi if the Russians have a chance to medal and both hit their programs out of the park? I'm wondering if even Yuna will be given a pass should she mess up in either of her programs.

By the time the Ladies event begins, Ashley, Gracie, Julia, and Adelina will have had Olympic experience as well.

Good point. Unlike previous newbies to the Olympics, these young ladies will all have the advantage of competing in the Team event.

 

[RABID]

Good point. Unlike previous newbies to the Olympics, these young ladies will all have the advantage of competing in the Team event.

Hmmm, the last few comments have left me wondering about this new wrinkle in Olympic competition. Can participation in the Team event influence performances in the individual event? And what of someone who doesn't compete in the team event? Is that fair?

 

[pangtongfan]

Adelina gets underscored compared to Julia, even when she's on. Everyone harps on consistency, but look at Euros SP. By and large, Adelina nailed her program and beat Julia by less than a single point. How on earth is that possible? She gives up some BV on her 3-3 but the difference in PCS and GOE should be much greater. Julia is getting way overscored on her PCS and GOE.

Julia had a much harder jump combination in the short. The fact Adelina still beat her despite the much easier jump combination shows the judges recognize her superiority you refer to in a strong way. If they did the same combination Adelina probably would have won the short over Julia by about 5 points. If anything Adelina I find overscored. Regardless of Julia's score in no way is a 70 in the short program with a mere triple toe-triple toe combination, higher than Yu Na Kim got at Worlds last year, an underscore of any kind. I can see how she has qualities over Julia but in the short program at Europeans she won not only over Julia with a much harder combination, but over a clean Kostner with the same jumps, and besides spins I dont find anything she does better than Kostner at this point; and her programs fully of silly and frivilious arm and upper body movements are much less well choreographed and put together. Then to score over 130 in the long program with 2 major mistakes and another triple omitted altogether so basically like 3 was a bit ridiculous, and even more ridiculous than Julia's near 140 for a perfect LP (although that was also far too high IMO).

Mind you Julia is also overscored often. Russian overscoring is in trend this whole season (I wonder why, lol). I am hard pressed to think of a single Russian skater who isnt visibly overmarked this year, maybe Barazova & Larionov but that is only since they are being dumped. Volosozhar & Trankov (atleast when they make mistakes), Stolbova & Klimkin, their top 2 dance teams (I&K more only when they make mistakes but that is frequent), Sotnikova, Lipnitskaia, Plushenko (when he has skated), a bit Kovtun, have all been glaringly overscored this year IMO.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

One thing I'll add is that, if last year was any indication, Euros will be judged more generously than the Olympics. I remember thinking Adelina's score in the SP at Worlds was lower than I was expecting based on her Euros score. It might have something to do with the higher quality of the field. In fact, I think this could hurt Julia. Whereas in Euros there were only a few women with better quality jumps (not difficulty but rather height and distance), at the Olympics there will be a lot more with bigger jumps and so I don't think you'll see her get +2 on anything other than spins and steps.

 

[pangtongfan]

One thing I'll add is that, if last year was any indication, Euros will be judged more generously than the Olympics. I remember thinking Adelina's score in the SP at Worlds was lower than I was expecting based on her Euros score. It might have something to do with the higher quality of the field. In fact, I think this could hurt Julia. Whereas in Euros there were only a few women with better quality jumps (not difficulty but rather height and distance), at the Olympics there will be a lot more with bigger jumps and so I don't think you'll see her get +2 on anything other than spins and steps.

While I agree with you I am a bit surprised to see you say that. Didnt you say in the other thread you could see a 73-75 in the short program for Julia and Adelina at the Games (which is obviously alot higher than their clean shorts got at the Europeans).

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

While I agree with you I am a bit surprised to see you say that. Didnt you say in the other thread you could see a 73-75 in the short program for Julia and Adelina at the Games (which is obviously alot higher than their clean shorts got at the Europeans).

Yes, I have mixed feelings, but I think the comparison to Yuna will impact Julia more than Adelina because Adelina jumps big too. I would love Adelina to score 75 but it's not going to happen with a 3T-3T probably.

 

[RobinA]

It will be a sad day if she medals in Sochi. It will mean a splatfest among the top skaters because Adelina is still a sloppy skater.

I totally agree. I don't get the Adelina-love by the commentators. I see nothing particularly great about her and see no reason her her to even be in the Olympic top five unless ice is even more slippery than usual for everybody else. To me her skating is adequate, but nowhere near top tier amongst this competition.

Like Kostner, she seems to get very high PCS compared to what she actually puts on the ice. To me, the PCS score is even weirder under IJS than than the somewhat similar presentation score under 6.0 (yes, I know it isn't exactly the same). Granted, they always used presentation to get closer to the result they wanted, but PCS scores just make no sense to me at all. To me, stretching the presentation under 6.0 was more obvious to the casusl viewer when it ocurred than the stretching of the PCS score, which is fairly opaque and ignored by the casual viewer. Thus, its easier to manipulate using PCS.