Inoue/Baldwin and the Throw Triple Axel

[SailorGalaxia518]

They have one planned...prob. for the free skate. I guess according to the recent blog on the USFS site, they did one in practice and it was huge.

I understand that if they do that and complete it in competition it will be the first one ever done

I have a question, if they do the throw triple axel and the sbs triple lutzes. Would they technically have the most difficult programs in the world. I mean that they still need to work a little bit on the lifts, though

 

[RealtorGal]

Is anyone else working on a throw 3 axel?

Planning it and completing it in competition are two separate things! I would just love to see it, though.

 

[SailorGalaxia518]

Is anyone else working on a throw 3 axel?

Planning it and completing it in competition are two separate things! I would just love to see it, though.

Most likely they will do it because they have been doing it so well in practice

 

[Lucy25]

Check out the video of this throw 3ax. Looks darn good to me!
http://www.usfigureskating.org/event_details.asp?id=28649
(scroll down to the video section)

 

[childfreegirl]

Wow that was huge! And it looked smooth to me.

 

[RealtorGal]

Check out the video of this throw 3ax. Looks darn good to me!
http://www.usfigureskating.org/event_details.asp?id=28649
(scroll down to the video section)

UNBELIEVABLE! ABSOLUTELY AMAZING!

 

[CDMM1991]

Wow

 

[Doggygirl]

WOW is right. Just out of curiousity, did they do this during the SP warm up? I'm guessing that based on the costumes. If so, what a statement!! Best wishes to them in the LP.

DG

 

[antmanb]

WOW is right. Just out of curiousity, did they do this during the SP warm up? I'm guessing that based on the costumes. If so, what a statement!! Best wishes to them in the LP.

DG

I think the video was of them just in a practice session rather than a warm up. They also have a video of another pairs practice where they land it again but she's kind of hangs onto the landing before rising up and extending into the landing position. It looks so solid though.

Ant

 

[dorispulaski]

I think the picture was from Campbell's warmup, where they also completed a throw 3A.

As to whether they would have the hardest program in the world, it's close. The rules have changed this year. You can no longer do 3 3T's in an LP. And you can no longer do 3 5ALi3's. There are level 4's in lifts, spirals, f/w and spins. Twists now have levels-which is why O&S are no longer doing a 4tw-they can do as well with a 3tw3. Here's the Base value totals so far from SA and SC, and, in the case of T&M, last worlds since we haven't seen them yet.

Base Values Actually Awarded by Caller, Most Recent

SP LP TOTAL
T&M Worlds 32.90 59.00 91.90
Z&Z SA 30.30 61.70 92.00
I&B SA 32.60 59.20 91.80
O&S SA 31.10 60.30 91.40
S&S SC 29.80 56.40 86.20
P&T RUS SC 27.60 55.50 83.10
M&B SC 29.10 56.10 85.20
H&P SA 28.60 47.80 76.40

Here's I&B's trick list:

2LZ 1.9
3Tw2 4.5 (they can't do much better...they have trouble)
2A+2A Seq 5.3 they did 2A 3t seq at gpf. If they did, it's an extra .5 - not worth the risk.
3LoTh 5.0
BiDs2 3.0
3Li3 3.5
PCoSP3 4.0
3Ath 8.3x (1.1 multiplier for 'late highlight')
BoDS3 4.0
SLST1 1.8
FCCoSp4 3.5
SpSt4 3.4
5ALi3 6.0

Total 59.2

First notice the highest level skills are grouped at the end of the program to amaze and amuse the judges. At SA, their final lift scored 7.0! They could gain 1.5 by upping their lifts, which are now level 3, to level 4, but they would do better just to execute what they have very well. (BTW, their SBS spins are currently the best we've seen this season).

If they did a 3Lz, they would score an additional 4.1 points, to 63.3.

Furthermore, since they did a level 3 f/w sequence in the short, I suspect they will be able to do a level 3 in the long.-an extra 1.3 points for 64.6 points. This requires them to learn nothing new, so it's definitely possible.

The Zhangs have the current hardest program. Here's their Skate America list, but they have planned a 4Sth, which would add 3.5 points:

3Sth 4.5
2A+3T (Combo!) 7.3
3Tw3 5.0
5TLi3 5.5
PCoSp3 4.0
BoDs3 4.0
3LoTh 5.5x (late highlight)
3S 5.0x (late highlight)
SpSt4 3.4
FiDS3 3.2
5ALi3 6.0
CiSt2 2.3
CCoSp2 2.5
3Li3 3.5

61.7

With the 4Sth, this would be 65.2. I don't think they can up their spins. They can't do what they have already, and the f/w the same. They could get the extra 1.5 for upping the lifts, and if there's a 4 level twist, they're the people that can do it.

For O&S, here's their list:

2A 3.3 (they were one of the 3 3T's teams. Apparently they don't do 3S or 3Lz so they're stuck with the axel as their solo jump)
3Tw2 4.5
3T+combo 4.0
2T* (non scoring, done too late to be part of the combo)
3FTh 5.0
5ALi4 6.5
FiDs4 3.5
FCCoSp4 3.5
3LoTh 5.5x (late highlight)
5TLi4 6.0
SpSt4 3.4
BoDs3 4.0
SlSt3 3.1
4Li3 3.5
PCoSp4 4.5

Total 60.3
If they did their 3T+2T combo, it would be 5.3 pts. I think a 3T 3T sequence is still legal. If so, it's worth 6.4, for a gain of at most 3.4 points (total 63.7) Furthermore there isn't that much they can do with this list. They're maxed on.

T&M have a 3S. They can gain .7 there. They can probably do a 3Tw3 for an additional .5. They can't do a 3Flth, they do a 3S instead. They lose .5 there. And I doubt like heck they will do a 5ALi4. They had enough trouble last year with a 5ALi3. lose .5 there. Their total will be very similar to O&S, unless there is something new in the works.

 

[SailorGalaxia518]

So if they are capable of doing this, and improving their programs over the sean up to the olympics because believe they are going unless one of them gets injured

If they hit their programs cleanly at the olympics is it possible that I/B can make top 5 just like Ina/Zimmerman back in 2002????

 

[dorispulaski]

Yes--after all, they made the GPF last year, which is top 6. Something really interesting happened at SA-I&B started getting PCS components in the high 6's and low 7's instead of in the 6.15 range. And they had higher PCS than O&S. O&S got 50.16 while I&B got 52.56. O&S were 5th at worlds, and frankly they didn't skate any better at Worlds than they did at SA.

T&M will definitely be in the Olympics top 6 and so will the Zhang's and Petrova/Tikhonov. . The people that I&B will be contending for for those 4th through 6th spots:

Here's how they scored at Worlds last years,but be careful. Rules are so changed, that this isn't a great guideline:

1 Tatiana TOTMIANINA / Maxim MARININ RUS 198.49 1 1
2 Maria PETROVA / Alexei TIKHONOV RUS 188.21 2 2
3 Dan ZHANG / Hao ZHANG CHN 180.22 4 3
4 Qing PANG / Jian TONG CHN 177.33 5 4
5 Julia OBERTAS / Sergei SLAVNOV RUS 174.43 6 5
6 Aliona SAVCHENKO / Robin SZOLKOWY GER 169.02 8 6
7 Dorota ZAGORSKA / Mariusz SIUDEK POL 167.68 7 7
8 Utako WAKAMATSU / Jean-Sebastien FECTEAU CAN 159.42 9 8
9 Valerie MARCOUX / Craig BUNTIN CAN 156.83 10 9
10 Tatiana VOLOSOZHAR / Stanislav MOROZOV UKR 156.38 11 11
11 Rena INOUE / John BALDWIN, jr. USA 155.64 12 10
12 Kathryn ORSCHER / Garrett LUCASH USA 143.16 14 12
13 Marylin PLA / Yannick BONHEUR FRA 135.22 13 13


S&S aren't eligible for Olympics because Savchenko is not a German citizen (this might change).

Shen & Zhao are injured, but may recover in time for Olympics ( a shoo in if they are even marginally healthy)

O&S, frankly I think the judges finally may have reached the tipping point with them. They have to get smoother. I&B could beat them.

Marcoux and Buntin finished ahead of I&B last year, but although they skated well at SC, their PCS points and I&B's are now about the same and M&B's difficulty is less (56.1) than I&B's. And their total score is less than I&B's SA scores. I&B could beat them.

Wakamatsu & Fecteau finished ahead of I&B last year, but they will have a hard time fending off Putnam & Wirtz for the 2nd Canadian Olympic spot.

Voloszhar and Morozov finished just ahead, and we haven't seen them yet this year. I&B's SA total was 164.44, which is ahead of V&M's Worlds total.

Who knows what will happen with Pang & Tong. They get superb PCS but have great trouble with jumps. Their current jump schedule is 2A 3T sequence, which means they have to use some other jump for their solo jump. This is going to mean a lower tech score than now, even. Their twists and throws are usually great. I would expect them in the top 6.

Zagorska and Siudek have great lifts and nothing else. The new rules limit them to only one 5ALi4 lift. This will help I&B. Additionally, they don't do a 2A. Their jumps were 3T2t and 3T. They will have to pick something different for the solo jump. I think I&B have a shot at beating them.

Next behind I&B were O&L. USFSA LUVs O&L. In fact that has been a problem for I&B, because they don't get much support from their federation. Heck, they don't even have a website, either official or unofficial. They are under the radar. I think if they medal at TEB and do better than 6th at GPF, that USFSA may cut them some slack at Nationals, which will help. Katie and Garrett are supposed to skate at COC. I don't know whether they have cancelled or not. They certainly can't make the GPF. That means their new programs will not be seen by international judges until Olympics. That's a problem for them.

Looking at it? I think they can make top 6 but not top four. To do top 4, they should move the 3ATh to the SP and replace 3Lz in the SP with a 2A. That will put them in the final four, which is key.

 

[SailorGalaxia518]

Thanks, Doris

 

[CDMM1991]

Also, Wakamatsu has decided not to get her Canadian citizenship, so her and her partner will not be at the Olympics.

 

[Doggygirl]

Thanks, Doris

Big Ditto to the THANKS!!

I give I/B lots of credit for trying that 3A in an effort to move up "in the minds" of the judges, and also in the scores.

Points to I!
Sandwiches to P!

DG

 

[hockeyfan228]

Voloszhar and Morozov finished just ahead, and we haven't seen them yet this year. I&B's SA total was 164.44, which is ahead of V&M's Worlds total.

Their winning score at Karl Schaefer this year was 155.99. Their LP PCS scores were 6.25 5.75 6.18 6.07 6.04, which was the same range they earned in their Moscow LP, and about the same range as I/B last year.

 

[dorispulaski]

V&M will probably be at Olympics, and seem to be improving year by year. Unfortunately, I didn't get their program from Karl Schaefer downloaded. The website crashed.

I think they have a lot of potential, and like S&S are rapidly improving. They definitely have a shot at a top 6 finish, IMO.

BTW, I&B projected results were based on an assumption that they skate well in both the SP and LP and land what they attempt. That's a huge stretch! But that was the question.

 

[hockeyfan228]

V&M have only been together a short while; she had been skating with another partner a few years ago, and they are doing exceptionally well for the amount of time they've been a pair. I don't know what's in the water in Ukraine, but it's producing among the top ladies pairs skaters: Obertas, Savchenko, and Volosozhar.

Is there a training coach in Ukraine that is producing such beautiful women?