Is it really farfetched to say Flatt has a chance to medal in Vancouver?

[japanice]

I'll be shocked if it isn't an Asian sweep ... Yu Na, Miki, Mao, Akiko ... in whatever order.

 

[janetfan]

I'll be shocked if it isn't an Asian sweep ... Yu Na, Miki, Mao, Akiko ... in whatever order.

That is not a bad bet. The only thing that has to be considered is Olympic pressure and how it will be handled.

Watching the GPF leads me to believe several of the skaters you mentioned are having problems dealing with expectations and pressure.

I believe Rachael will show a heck of alot more than four triples and will probably nail a 3x3.

If that happens it most likely gives her a strong chance against skaters under performing due to Olympic pressure.

These things are hard to predict. I agree you may have named the four best skaters - but am not so sure they are the four best "pressure" skaters.

 

[Bennett]

Akiko needs to be at her very best and also be helped by others' meltdowns to get on the podium. It is not that she is a bad skater, but she needed to be at the major international scene a lot earlier to be judged more properly. I am sorry about that. Her performance at GPF was fab. Her skating skills are great. So are her steps and jumps. Her spirals and spins are not great, but still she deserved fantastic PCS. I am sorry about that. Does Rachael and Ashley get better PCS than Akiko? When skated at their best, I feel that Akiko and Wagner are similar in their presentations. Wagner has more polished lines and sophstication in everything, but Akiko has a great charisma when she is on. I feel that other than top skaters, PCS matters REALLY a lot and this is not something the skater has too much control over at this point.

 

[janetfan]

Akiko needs to be at her very best and also be helped by others' meltdowns to get on the podium. It is not that she is a bad skater, but she needed to be at the major international scene a lot earlier to be judged more properly. I am sorry about that. Her performance at GPF was fab. Her skating skills are great. So are her steps and jumps. Her spirals and spins are not great, but still she deserved fantastic PCS. I am sorry about that. Does Rachael and Ashley get better PCS than Akiko? When skated at their best, I feel that Akiko and Wagner are similar in their presentations. Wagner has more polished lines and sophstication in everything, but Akiko has a great charisma when she is on. I feel that other than top skaters, PCS matters REALLY a lot and this is not something the skater has too much control over at this point.

I agree with your remarks - but who or what is to blame for the problem of pcs?

BTW, Akiko was skating under a high degree of pressure at the GPF.
She had the pressure of home ice - and also knowing a good showing was necessary to enhance her chances of earning a spot on the the very competitive Japanese Ladies Olympic team.

I enjoyed Akiko's LP very much and thought she handled the pressure extremely well. She could be a factor in Vancouver - if she gets to go - and if a few of the favorites don't manage to handle the pressure very well.

Of course a little less "juding by reputation" would help her chances too.

 

[japanice]

Yu Na, Miki, Mao, Akiko ... I'm not sure I understand the point about pressure ... this group includes the last 3 world champions.

 

[Bennett]

I agree with your remarks - but who or what is to blame for the problem of pcs?

BTW, Akiko was skating under a high degree of pressure at the GPF.
She had the pressure of home ice - and also knowing a good showing was necessary to enhance her chances of earning a spot on the the very competitive Japanese Ladies Olympic team.

I enjoyed Akiko's LP very much and thought she handled the pressure extremely well. She could be a factor in Vancouver - if she gets to go - and if a few of the favorites don't manage to handle the pressure very well.

Of course a little less "juding by reputation" would help her chances too.

I think that her pressures at GPF would have been actually a lot less than SC or at the coming Nationals. At SC, she was looking at GPF. Then she did not do well. At GPF, she basically did not have much chance to go above Miki or have podium finish. So she did not need to worry about the Oly ticket here. Then 4th or 5th at GPF wouldn't have helped her much in the selection for the Oly team, even though it would have been important that she would not have any meltdown here and just do a decent skate. It was a very surprising medal helped by Rochette's complete meltdown. So yes, the medal here might help her chance at getting Oly spot, but it was not something she would have had in mind. I feel that she skated from her heart because she did not need to think too much about the outcome.

Nationals will be a completely different story. I feel that she would be under enormous pressures. Then she might underperform as she did last times. But the situation is same for Yukari, Fumie, or Mao. So whoever deals with the nerves would get the spot.

At Oly, if she makes it, Akiko could skate lightheartedly again. She would not be a medal contender and can just enjoy herself.

 

[janetfan]

Yu Na, Miki, Mao, Akiko ... I'm not sure I understand the point about pressure ... this group includes the last 3 world champions.

I am not sure you if understand the Olympics..........

the pressure is greater and different skaters handle it differently.

We have even seen the skaters feeling Olympic pressure through the GP events this season as we saw very few strong performances.

Yuna at TEB was a terrific performance but her other events were not her best. She says she is feeling the pressure of the Olympic season.

Mao was not skating well the whole season.

Miki has been far from her best all season and couldn't handle the pressure of skating last at the GPF.

Not on your list but Joannie has not skated well this season either.

Do you think it is only a coincidence? I don't believe in coincidences.

 

[japanice]

I do understand the Olympics ... the GP results this season: Yu Na (1st, 1st), Miki (1st, 1st), Mao (2nd, 5th), Akiko (1st, 5th) .. GPF: Yu Na 1, Miki 2, Akiko 3 ... these are pretty consistent results ... I fail to see what advantage Rachel has over 3 world champions.

 

[janetfan]

I do understand the Olympics ... the GP results this season: Yu Na (1st, 1st), Miki (1st, 1st), Mao (2nd, 5th), Akiko (1st, 5th) .. GPF: Yu Na 1, Miki 2, Akiko 3 ... these are pretty consistent results ... I fail to see what advantage Rachel has over 3 world champions.

Then you did not understand.

Speaking of a longshot, and a skater who might have the abilty to back onto a podium if several of the favorites falter.

Rachael, Akiko, Laura, Caro - several skaters have been mentioned as having the possibilty of skating their best and slipping past a top skater.

We saw Alissa and Ashley beat Mao at CoP. We saw Rachael beat a subpar Yuna in the LP at SA this season.

If you know your Olympic history then just remember 2002. For that matter, Irina and Sasha were the favorites in Torino and not Shiz.

Irina and Sasha did not handle Olympic pressure well and Shiz did.

So if you think the Olympic podium is a foregone conclusion then I suggest you bet all you have on it. You could make alot of money.

I don't have a crystal ball and think there may be a surprise or two in Vancouver.
I could be wrong but am not willing to bet anything on it.

 

[Bennett]

Shiz was a world champ and had a lot better skating skills, steps, and jumps than Sasha. Her spiral was comparably spectacular. Sasha was better at spins and artistry. Shiz was the contender even without their mistakes. When the three were clean at SP, those three skaters scored basically the tie. Shiz was really lucky peaking at the best timing. But it was not like a gift.

 

[janetfan]

Shiz was a world champ and had a lot better skating skills, steps, and jumps than Sasha. Her spiral was comparably spectacular. Sasha was better at spins and artistry. Shiz was the contender even without their mistakes. When the three were clean at SP, those three skaters scored basically the tie.

My recollection is that Irina absolutely dominated skating that season and Shiz was not her best. Shiz was not even necessarily the favorite in Japan.

Shiz had been WC when - in 04?

 

[Bennett]

My recollection is that Irina absolutely dominated skating that season and Shiz was not her best. Shiz was not even necessarily the favorite in Japan.

Shiz had been WC when - in 04?

Yeah, she was WC in 04 with a dominant performance. Then she had a terrible year next season and then came back slowly but steadily during the olympic season. Miki was the media idol, but actually skating commentators were pushing Shiz as the medal contender. She messed up at Nationals and they also needed to rank Suguri to make sure that she'd be in the team. But skating experts knew that she was the closest to an OM. Watching her skate at practices in Torin, Scott Hamilton's best money was on her. Irina was also worried about her landing 3-3-3. She had everything and peaked at the best timing with the right music.

 

[japanice]

Rachel has not even won a senior GP event ... I think it takes a vivid imagination to envision any scenario whereby she makes the podium in Vancouver ... only a rash of injuries could make this remotely possible.

 

[janetfan]

Shiz was a world champ and had a lot better skating skills, steps, and jumps than Sasha. Her spiral was comparably spectacular. Sasha was better at spins and artistry. Shiz was the contender even without their mistakes. When the three were clean at SP, those three skaters scored basically the tie. Shiz was really lucky peaking at the best timing. But it was not like a gift.

Look, I happen to love Shiz and thought she was the clear winner in Torino.

But I believe Sasha had better programs and had she skated her best she would have won. But we could say that about Irina too and also Shizuka.

The point is Shizuka, who had not won much that season managed a very good skate at the Olympics and deserved to win.

She was hardly a dominant skater that season though which is why she was NOT the favorite in Torino. Many Americans, including Dick Button thought Fumie would be a bigger contender than Shiz in Torino.
Irina was the defending WC, not Shiz.

 

[janetfan]

Rachel has not even won a senior GP event ... I think it takes a vivid imagination to envision any scenario whereby she makes the podium in Vancouver ... only a rash of injuries could make this remotely possible.

How about "imagining" Rachael coming in 5th at Worlds in '09 and then managing to move up to third when a few others meltdown in Vancouver?

Rachael is not a favorite of mine but she has an outside chance if the others fail.

Let's agree to disagree on this one.

 

[R.D.]

Well, we'll find all this out in Feb won't we?

 

[janetfan]

Well, we'll find all this out in Feb won't we?

Yes and the suspense is already killing me

 

[silverlake22]

Whoever said the thing about Rachael not winning any GP event this season, that was mostly because one of her events (SA) she essentially could not win because Yuna was at that event. If even Miki took the place of Yuna at SC Rachael might have won, judging by the way Miki was skating this GP season. Also Rachael should have gotten a medal in China, Kiira Korpi did not deserve that silver and we all know it.

GP are really about luck, Ashley made the final and Rachael and Alissa didn't even though their scores were better because Ashley had easier events.

A skater who has done well this season with the pressure, Alissa. That's right Alissa. But honestly, as national champ right before an Olympic year, she's holding up well. No meltdowns. She only fell once at COR and twice at SC, but out of fairness to her, SC was a splatfest. Her SP has been great both times this season. She's kinda flying under the radar, because her LP scores are never that strong, but she is keeping it together and keeping the falls to a minimun.

Also, the fact that Mirai had all her triples ratified at SC is promising. I see her as a potential spoiler at nationals, if Ashley has an off night and Alissa makes mistakes in the short and has her usual long, Mirai could brush past them. I think she has a good shot in coming in 2nd at nats

 

[janetfan]

Whoever said the thing about Rachael not winning any GP event this season, that was mostly because one of her events (SA) she essentially could not win because Yuna was at that event. If even Miki took the place of Yuna at SC Rachael might have won, judging by the way Miki was skating this GP season. Also Rachael should have gotten a medal in China, Kiira Korpi did not deserve that silver and we all know it.

GP are really about luck, Ashley made the final and Rachael and Alissa didn't even though their scores were better because Ashley had easier events.

A skater who has done well this season with the pressure, Alissa. That's right Alissa. But honestly, as national champ right before an Olympic year, she's holding up well. No meltdowns. She only fell once at COR and twice at SC, but out of fairness to her, SC was a splatfest. Her SP has been great both times this season. She's kinda flying under the radar, because her LP scores are never that strong, but she is keeping it together and keeping the falls to a minimun.

Also, the fact that Mirai had all her triples ratified at SC is promising. I see her as a potential spoiler at nationals, if Ashley has an off night and Alissa makes mistakes in the short and has her usual long, Mirai could brush past them. I think she has a good shot in coming in 2nd at nats

If Mirai skated two clean programs I think she would win. Her spins, spirals and ice coverage is better than Rachael. I am really not that wild about the choreo for her LP. I don't mind the music so much, but don't think Lori did her best work on that program.

 

[R.D.]

A skater who has done well this season with the pressure, Alissa. That's right Alissa. But honestly, as national champ right before an Olympic year, she's holding up well. No meltdowns. She only fell once at COR and twice at SC, but out of fairness to her, SC was a splatfest. Her SP has been great both times this season. She's kinda flying under the radar, because her LP scores are never that strong, but she is keeping it together and keeping the falls to a minimun.

But it was the same thing in 2005 (although her strong finishes at SA and SC got her some media attention). Then it was all downhill from there. Wouldn't be shocked to see the old Alyssa show up again at this pressure-filled Nats, ESPECIALLY since she's defending champ. If she's not on she could take herself right out of the running. Same with Zhang, Wagner even.