Agreed, Wagner isn't really a contender with that group of three at the top. I disagree with Jenny that Adelina cannot beat Ashley; I actually expect Adelina to place ahead of Wagner. I sense from interviews that Ashley is feeling the pressure to bring back three spots, and she didn't respond well to the pressure of defending her national title.
I don't think it was pressure that did her in, honestly, at Nationals. It really sounds like she just ran out of energy. The mistakes she was making in the FS were not nerve mistakes but rather just being exhausted.