- Joined
- Nov 19, 2010
It's the end of the year and mid skating season. The top men have met once and they each has 3 international scores for me to play with.
Here I added up the best score for each technical element and each program component each of the top 3 men has earned. I also looked at what they have intended but have not achieved in competition so far in the season and added them to see what their possible best scores could be with their current LPs.
Patrick CHAN
1 4T 10.30 + 2.00 = 12.30
2 3A+3T 12.60 + 1.71 = 14.31
3 3Lz 6.00 + 1.00 1= 7.00
4 SlSt3 3.30 + 1.14 = 4.44
5 FSSp4 3.00 + 0.93 = 3.93
6 3A x9.35 -1.86 = 7.49
7 3Lz+1Lo+2S x8.69 + 0.30 = 8.99
8 CSSp3 2.60 + 0.86 = 3.46
9 3F+3T x10.34 + -0.10 = 10.24
10 3Lo x5.61 + 0.80 = 6.41
11 2A x3.63 + 0.86 = 4.49
12 ChSt1 2.00 + 3.00 = 5.00
13 CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.93= 4.43
TES = 92.49 (Base Value = 80.92)
Program Components
Skating Skills 8.71
Transition / Linking Footwork 8.54
Performance / Execution 8.50
Choreography / Composition 8.86
Interpretation 9.00
PCS = 87.22
Total = 179.71 (SB = 174.16)
If he can get the second 3A with GOE 0 and does the 3S in the 3 jump combo as intended, retaining 0.30 GOE, his total would be 185.37.
Nobunari ODA
1 4T 10.30 + 0.00 = 10.30
2 3A+3T 12.60 + 2.29 = 14.89
3 3F+3T 9.40 + 1.20 = 10.60
4 SeSt3 3.30 + 0.88 = 4.18
5 FCCoSp4 3.50 + 0.43 = 3.93
6 3Lz x6.60 + 1.30 = 7.90
7 3A x9.35 + 2.29 = 11.64
8 3Lo x5.61 + 1.00 = 6.61
9 3S x4.62 + 0.30 = 4.62
10 2A x3.63 + 0.43 = 4.06
11 ChSt1 2.00 + 1.14 = 3.14
12 FSSp4 3.50 + 0.36 = 3.86
13 CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.86 = 4.36
TES = 90.09 (Base Value = 77.91)
Program Components
Skating Skills 8.29
Transition / Linking Footwork 7.71
Performance / Execution 7.89
Choreography / Composition 8.04
Interpretation 7.93
PCS = 79.72
Total = 169.81 (SB = 156.22)
Oda needs to add another (legal) combo.
So far he's done either 2 2-jump combos or a 2- and a 3-jump combos. I credited him here with 3F+3T because its value is much higher than the 3-jump combo he did. Adding a 3T means 4.10 points more or 4.51 with bonus, upping his possible scores to 174.32.
Takahiko KOZUKA
1 4T 10.30 -1.00 = 9.30
2 3A 8.50 + 1.29 = 9.79
3 3Lz+2T 7.40 + 0.30 = 7.70
4 CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.50 = 4.00
5 SeSt3 3.30 + 0.79 = 4.09
6 3A+2T+2Lo x12.87 + 1.00 = 13.87
7 3F x5.83 + 1.10 = 6.93
8 3Lz+3T x11.11 + 1.20 = 12.31
9 3Lo x5.61 + 0.20 = 5.81
10 3S x4.62 + 0.50 = 5.12
11 FSSp4 3.00 + 0.64 = 3.64
12 ChSt1 2.00 + 1.43 = 3.43
13 FCCoSp4 3.50 + 0.57 = 4.07
TES = 90.06 (Base Value = 81.54)
Program Components
Skating Skills 8.36
Transition / Linking Footwork 7.82
Performance / Execution 8.18
Choreography / Composition 8.00
Interpretation 8.04
PCS = 80.80
Total = 170.86 (SB = 170.43)
If he turns the other 3Lz+2T into 3Lz+3T with GOE 1.20 like what he did once so far, and improves his 4T to GOE 0, his total would be 176.47.
So far Oda's program has varied the most and still not optimized for COP. He also has the highest scores in individual elements, including his 4T/3T in the SP. He is the most under-performing one IMO and has the most room to improve in terms of his choreography and his mental state. He probably needs caution and courage to incorporate the needed jump combo into his LP.
Kozuka is the most stable, with no falls but no good quad so far. He has 2 3Lz+2T in his LP and only once has he turned one of them into a 3Lz+3T, so I think his score increase should come in better quads and program optimization.
Chan may be called the least stable but the trajectory of his stepping up is the most impressive if he keeps in the direction he's going. His weakness in the composite program I did for him is in the 2nd 3A but that's because I had to keep that one, as well as the improvised 3F+3T<, in consideration of other elements chosen and included. His program still has room for potentially huge increase in marks by completing both 3As and by doing 3S at the end of the 3 jump combo. His is also the most COP smart program.
Daisuke Takahashi can never be written out even though he's not performed well this season. His optimized composite program would be behind these three but I may look at the possible scores his LP may fetch if performed well.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!
Here I added up the best score for each technical element and each program component each of the top 3 men has earned. I also looked at what they have intended but have not achieved in competition so far in the season and added them to see what their possible best scores could be with their current LPs.
Patrick CHAN
1 4T 10.30 + 2.00 = 12.30
2 3A+3T 12.60 + 1.71 = 14.31
3 3Lz 6.00 + 1.00 1= 7.00
4 SlSt3 3.30 + 1.14 = 4.44
5 FSSp4 3.00 + 0.93 = 3.93
6 3A x9.35 -1.86 = 7.49
7 3Lz+1Lo+2S x8.69 + 0.30 = 8.99
8 CSSp3 2.60 + 0.86 = 3.46
9 3F+3T x10.34 + -0.10 = 10.24
10 3Lo x5.61 + 0.80 = 6.41
11 2A x3.63 + 0.86 = 4.49
12 ChSt1 2.00 + 3.00 = 5.00
13 CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.93= 4.43
TES = 92.49 (Base Value = 80.92)
Program Components
Skating Skills 8.71
Transition / Linking Footwork 8.54
Performance / Execution 8.50
Choreography / Composition 8.86
Interpretation 9.00
PCS = 87.22
Total = 179.71 (SB = 174.16)
If he can get the second 3A with GOE 0 and does the 3S in the 3 jump combo as intended, retaining 0.30 GOE, his total would be 185.37.
Nobunari ODA
1 4T 10.30 + 0.00 = 10.30
2 3A+3T 12.60 + 2.29 = 14.89
3 3F+3T 9.40 + 1.20 = 10.60
4 SeSt3 3.30 + 0.88 = 4.18
5 FCCoSp4 3.50 + 0.43 = 3.93
6 3Lz x6.60 + 1.30 = 7.90
7 3A x9.35 + 2.29 = 11.64
8 3Lo x5.61 + 1.00 = 6.61
9 3S x4.62 + 0.30 = 4.62
10 2A x3.63 + 0.43 = 4.06
11 ChSt1 2.00 + 1.14 = 3.14
12 FSSp4 3.50 + 0.36 = 3.86
13 CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.86 = 4.36
TES = 90.09 (Base Value = 77.91)
Program Components
Skating Skills 8.29
Transition / Linking Footwork 7.71
Performance / Execution 7.89
Choreography / Composition 8.04
Interpretation 7.93
PCS = 79.72
Total = 169.81 (SB = 156.22)
Oda needs to add another (legal) combo.
So far he's done either 2 2-jump combos or a 2- and a 3-jump combos. I credited him here with 3F+3T because its value is much higher than the 3-jump combo he did. Adding a 3T means 4.10 points more or 4.51 with bonus, upping his possible scores to 174.32.Takahiko KOZUKA
1 4T 10.30 -1.00 = 9.30
2 3A 8.50 + 1.29 = 9.79
3 3Lz+2T 7.40 + 0.30 = 7.70
4 CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.50 = 4.00
5 SeSt3 3.30 + 0.79 = 4.09
6 3A+2T+2Lo x12.87 + 1.00 = 13.87
7 3F x5.83 + 1.10 = 6.93
8 3Lz+3T x11.11 + 1.20 = 12.31
9 3Lo x5.61 + 0.20 = 5.81
10 3S x4.62 + 0.50 = 5.12
11 FSSp4 3.00 + 0.64 = 3.64
12 ChSt1 2.00 + 1.43 = 3.43
13 FCCoSp4 3.50 + 0.57 = 4.07
TES = 90.06 (Base Value = 81.54)
Program Components
Skating Skills 8.36
Transition / Linking Footwork 7.82
Performance / Execution 8.18
Choreography / Composition 8.00
Interpretation 8.04
PCS = 80.80
Total = 170.86 (SB = 170.43)
If he turns the other 3Lz+2T into 3Lz+3T with GOE 1.20 like what he did once so far, and improves his 4T to GOE 0, his total would be 176.47.
So far Oda's program has varied the most and still not optimized for COP. He also has the highest scores in individual elements, including his 4T/3T in the SP. He is the most under-performing one IMO and has the most room to improve in terms of his choreography and his mental state. He probably needs caution and courage to incorporate the needed jump combo into his LP.
Kozuka is the most stable, with no falls but no good quad so far. He has 2 3Lz+2T in his LP and only once has he turned one of them into a 3Lz+3T, so I think his score increase should come in better quads and program optimization.
Chan may be called the least stable but the trajectory of his stepping up is the most impressive if he keeps in the direction he's going. His weakness in the composite program I did for him is in the 2nd 3A but that's because I had to keep that one, as well as the improvised 3F+3T<, in consideration of other elements chosen and included. His program still has room for potentially huge increase in marks by completing both 3As and by doing 3S at the end of the 3 jump combo. His is also the most COP smart program.
Daisuke Takahashi can never be written out even though he's not performed well this season. His optimized composite program would be behind these three but I may look at the possible scores his LP may fetch if performed well.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!
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