Second competition spot for Russian ladies?

[madison]

Ok, an update after the second event.

Next week we have Fedichkina and Panenkova who will face Rika Kihira. But the rest of the field is unknown to me. Hence, I would assume they will all share the podium.

The week after the next Konstantinova and Samodurova will face Ye Lim Kim and Riko Takino. Both seem to be a moderate threat, hence 1-2 is expected.

After 4 events the likely scenario for the Russian team is 3 golds 3 silvers, and 1 bronze. And there will be only 6 spots left including 1 for Vasilyeva. I would replace Gubanova with either Trusova or Tarakanova as Yamashita who will perform in Croatia can be a threat. She can win over Vasilyeva and Gulyakova and with 3-1 make Gulyakova's JGPF chances very slim even with 2-2. Then the places in the last 2 competitions will be taken by the girls with gold. And there will only 2 more left.

Assuming Kihira wins in Latvia Russian Fed won't challenge her place at JGPF. The key will be to get all other 5 places. The expected minimum is either 3-1 or 2-2. The former is better but it seem only feasible if either Fedichkina or Panenkova have the bronze in Latvia with a high score to be competitive at the last 2 stages. Hence, only the bronze in Latvia with very close podium scores (bronze higher than 190) will give chances for the second competition with Gulyakova out.

Of course, Konstantinova is notoriously inconsistent and the state of Samodurova is unknown. But again, correct me if I am wrong but the field in Minsk is weak so that gold and silver is their to lose.


Conclusions: it is very unlikely that Gubanova will keep her second assignment - the best strategy is to replace her with Trusova or Tarakanova. Gulyakova's chances for the second assignment have become significantly higher but they are not certain yet. After 2 competitions there is already a solid team of Russian JGPF contenders: Trusova, Tarakanova, and Gulyakova. And 5 more are still to come.

Can the Russian Fed. introduce new names? For example, Alena Kostornaya?

 

[MsLiinaLii]

Can the Russian Fed. introduce new names? For example, Alena Kostornaya?

They can add Kostornaya to last 2 events only

 

[puremagic]

what matters is consistency. I think the most consistent in having clean skate from next 4 skaters is Panenkova. Fedichkina, Konstantinova and Samodurova is not super consistent so imo its hard to predict

Samodurova is consistent. I can't remember competition where she fell or something. She had problems with her PCS. But at the last local competition she got almost 200 points. Fedichkina problems are still her underrotations and stamina, not her consistency. Konstantinova - yes. She has problems with that.

Assuming Kihira wins in Latvia Russian Fed won't challenge her place at JGPF. The key will be to get all other 5 places. The expected minimum is either 3-1 or 2-2. The former is better but it seem only feasible if either Fedichkina or Panenkova have the bronze in Latvia with a high score to be competitive at the last 2 stages. Hence, only the bronze in Latvia with very close podium scores (bronze higher than 190) will give chances for the second competition with Gulyakova out.

But don't forget about Lim. She's already ahead of Gulyakova around 5 points. I'd say for Russia is most likely four spots in the JGPF. 1 spot to Japan. 1 spot to South Korea. I guess Panenkova is still slow, so clean Kihira especially with 3A will beat her. Fedichkina with her URs also can be lower than Kihira. Samodurova and Konstantionova are black horses. Samodurova became a little lady and now she can have more PCS. Konstantinova - don't know. I still can't remember her clean skating. Even at Russian Junior Nationals some of her landings were dirty and sloppy.

And there is Vasilieva. Vasilieva is a fast skater, has a beautiful axel. But her BV of her free program is low. She even don't jump 3-3 combo in the free skate. So she can be clean, but also can get low scores. Tarusina and Kurakova - I saw their programs recently. These two girls really have very bad choreographers. SPs - are okay, but their FPs... :disapp: Average level.

For now it's most likely will be like this but who knows what will be next:

Trusova
Tarakanova
Kihira
Lim
x
x

So Kostornaya could be a really good choice. And again I remembered Scherbakova. She could compete and jumps two 4T (4T+3T(2T), 4T) in the free program. :sad4:

 

[[email protected]]

But don't forget about Lim. She's already ahead of Gulyakova around 5 points. I'd say for Russia is most likely four spots in the JGPF. 1 spot to Japan. 1 spot to South Korea.

There will be some competitive tactics for sure. Lim does not have the second assignment yet. I presume it will be during one of the last 2 events but it may be earlier. For example, Croatia. Then if my theory is correct she will face either Trusova or Tarakanova and Vasilyeva. If Vasilyeva is not a threat (I have no ideas about her) then Lim is likely to have 2-2 which might or might not be enough for JGPF.

I would agree that at this stage chances of Eusoon Lim look better than Gulyakova's. But Nastya3 (after Gubanova and Tarakanova) has not secured the second spot yet so that Lim's actual competition for JGPF might be different and tougher. And Gulyakova may go va-bank with the announced 3A. If she can land it her scoring potential will immediately become higher than Lim's.

If the Korean goes to one of the last 2 events she will face either Trusova or Tarakanova, Kihira, and the best of Fedichkina, Konstantinova, Samodurova, Gulyakova, and Panenkova. Her getting the second silver in such a company might be too much to expect, not speaking about gold. Then using the substitute spot in the next 3 events looks like a better tactics for Eusoon Lim.

 

[Skate2Music]

Do you know if a Federation enters a skater in specific JGP or just determines the number of spots they receive? If not, are the spots assigned randomly or invitationally such as the seniors?

 

[[email protected]]

Do you know if a Federation enters a skater in specific JGP or just determines the number of spots they receive? If not, are the spots assigned randomly or invitationally such as the seniors?

A Fed has 2 constraints: the number of spots for a certain event and the deadline when participants should be firmly selected. Within those constraints they can name any legible skater.

 

[skatenewbie]

Samodurova is consistent. I can't remember competition where she fell or something. She had problems with her PCS. But at the last local competition she got almost 200 points. Fedichkina problems are still her underrotations and stamina, not her consistency. Konstantinova - yes. She has problems with that.



But don't forget about Lim. She's already ahead of Gulyakova around 5 points. I'd say for Russia is most likely four spots in the JGPF. 1 spot to Japan. 1 spot to South Korea. I guess Panenkova is still slow, so clean Kihira especially with 3A will beat her. Fedichkina with her URs also can be lower than Kihira. Samodurova and Konstantionova are black horses. Samodurova became a little lady and now she can have more PCS. Konstantinova - don't know. I still can't remember her clean skating. Even at Russian Junior Nationals some of her landings were dirty and sloppy.

And there is Vasilieva. Vasilieva is a fast skater, has a beautiful axel. But her BV of her free program is low. She even don't jump 3-3 combo in the free skate. So she can be clean, but also can get low scores. Tarusina and Kurakova - I saw their programs recently. These two girls really have very bad choreographers. SPs - are okay, but their FPs... :disapp: Average level.

For now it's most likely will be like this but who knows what will be next:

Trusova
Tarakanova
Kihira
Lim
x
x

So Kostornaya could be a really good choice. And again I remembered Scherbakova. She could compete and jumps two 4T (4T+3T(2T), 4T) in the free program. :sad4:

Samodurova didnt skate good at junior nats, and senior nats also not so clean, i dont really remember though. UR is also inconsitencies. what i mean by consistent is clean with no falls, UR, pop... Fedichkina does pop quite sometimes and UR like you said. Dont forget Korea's Kim Ye Lim, she's better than Eunsoo when they competed at Korea test skate for junior. She backload, all 7 jumping pass in 2nd half. She get almost 130 in FP (70+ TES) and you know that quite something because Korean Fed is really strict in giving scores even at local comp.

 

[kalee]

Not to forget that there is also Young You in contention for the JGPF... she will appear in JGP5, and by all indications, she will be in JGP7 together with Rika Kihira, since Eun Soo is in JGP6 with Moa Iwano & Yuhana Yokoi:
http://www.isuresults.com/events/cat03108208.htm

Trusova is named to JGP6, so would expect Tarakanova + Guliakova in JGP7, which is not a bad strategy if Guliakova can try the 3A (then it is a question of Kihira vs. Guliakova, who is more successful in their 3A attempts).

 

[lbamda]

They can add Kostornaya to last 2 events only

Kostornaya was added to spare.

 

[kalee]

So, it looks like a bunch of changes were just made:
JGP4 -- Sasha + Stasya. Key non-Russian contenders -- Kim Ye Lim
JGP5 -- Nastya Tarakanova + Sonya. Key non-Russian contenders -- Young You, Mako Yamashita
JGP6 -- Stasya + Alena Kostornaya. Key non-Russian contender -- Lim Eun Soo
JGP7 -- Russian entries TBD, but by elimination, Rika Kihira, Young You and Kim Ye Lim will all be here

It'll be interesting how RusFed would want to strategize for JGP7 given that whoever goes in will have to face Rika and You. Hope that if Daria gets gold or silver in Riga, they could consider putting her in JGP5 or JGP6 so that she will not have to face Rika twice. This allocation is providing the best path for Trusova into JGPF (Minsk is hers to lose and a Russian 1-2 is highly likely) but it looks like Russia will concede 2 JGPF spots (Eun Soo + Rika).

Any thoughts for a strategy for max girls in JGPF (vs. max girls in JGP)? Russia looks good for 4 girls in JGPF, but any ways they can try to increase the chances of getting 5?

 

[narcissa]

Wow, this is super interesting :cool2:

 

[[email protected]]

Uncertainty is reducing and Gulyakova's chances for the second competition grow.

Now out of 14 spots we have 6 already realized. Then there are 3 sort of certain spots for the winners. Then we have Konstantinova and Samodurova next week. And we have Gubanova and Fedichkina likely out. This brings 3 spots left for Konstantinova, Samodurova, and Gulyakova. Looks fine and that is going to be the likely scenario if they go 1-2 with good scores next week - I mean 185+ If they are not that good it may bring the opportunity to Kostornaya.

There are still chances for Russia only JGPF. To have it Gulyakova and whoever is second between Konstantinova and Samodurova should beat Eusoon and Rika respectively in their next competition. Of course, if they go 1-2 next week.

 

[corynna]

After the latest changes in assignments we have for the next events:
Belarus - Trusova , Konstantinova
Croatia - Tarakanova, Samodurova
Poland - Kostornaya, Konstantinova
Italy- ?

With Panenkova winning in Latvia, she will be for sure guaranteed a spot. I think Gulyakova will get the second assignment as well.
If Konstantinova finishes lower then second place she will lose the second assignment to Gulyakova. If she gets silver medal, probably Samodurova will loose her spot completely and Gulyakova will be added in her place.
As Kostornaya was recently added, I think she will get the last event as well (unless she bombs in Poland and finishes off-podium).

 

[vorravorra]

Apparently Gulyakova has some kind of small injury. It is possible that Konstornaya was added just in case Gulyakova can't compete.

 

[kalee]

Ahh... that makes sense... but is a pity for Gulyakova...
Am actually keeping fingers crossed that Gulyakova will be fit, have a competition-ready 3A and be deployed in JGP7 vs. Rika.
Rika's FS base value is 65.79, Nastya's is 57.98 without 3A but if she upgrades her 2A to a 3A, that would add about 4.5 points of BV = approx 62.5 pts BV. It would still be about 3 points difference in BV, but a closable gap if Rika were to make mistakes again.

For max JGPF spots, this could be one of the strategies:-
Minsk -- Sasha Trusova (expected win, first skater to reach JGPF); Stasya Konstantinova (needs silver with a score above Gulyakova's to secure 2nd spot)
Zagreb -- Anastasia Tarakanova (expected win to reach JGPF); Sofia Samodurova (can podium if she beats Mako Yamashita even if she might not necessarily beat Young You)
Gdansk -- Daria Panenkova + either Stasya or Alena, depending on Stasya's performance in Minsk. Expectation is that either or both girls can beat Eun Soo if clean.
Egna -- Anastasia Gulyakova + either Sonya or Alena again, depending on Sonya's performance in Zagreb. Nastya can take on Rika to challenge for JGPF, with a 1-2 likely to send both in. Young You is a potential spoiler so Alena who is new or Sonya who is not one of the main JGPF bets would be a low-risk way to challenge her without losing too much if she wins.

With the above allocation, best case scenario for Russians in JGPF:
Minsk --> Sasha, Stasya, Ye Lim
Zagreb --> Nastya Tarakanova, Sonya / You 2-3, Mako
Gdansk --> Dasha / Stasya 1-2, Eun Soo
Egna --> Nastya Gulyakova, Rika, Sonya / You 3-4

This would create the following JGPF: Sasha (30), Nastya Tarakanova (30), Dasha (30 or 28), Nastya Gulyakova (28), Stasya (28 or 26), Rika (26) = 5 Russians in JGPF. In fact if Sonya can beat Rika + You then it could be an all-Russian JGPF.

A worst-case scenario (within probable bounds) could be this:
Minsk --> Sasha, Ye Lim, Stasya
Zagreb --> Nastya Tarakanova, You, Mako, Sonya
Gdansk --> Eun Soo, Alena, Dasha
Egna --> Rika, You, Alena, Nastya Gulyakova

This would still end up putting the 3 girls who have won their events so far into JGPF --> Sasha (30), Nastya Tarakanova (30), Eun Soo (28), Rika (28), Dasha (26), You (26). But given what we have seen so far, thinking this situation is less probable than the first.

 

[puremagic]

With the above allocation, best case scenario for Russians in JGPF:
Minsk --> Sasha, Stasya, Ye Lim
Zagreb --> Nastya Tarakanova, Sonya / You 2-3, Mako
Gdansk --> Dasha / Stasya 1-2, Eun Soo
Egna --> Nastya Gulyakova, Rika, Sonya / You 3-4

Hey kalee, I also thought about this. But I don't know why you forgot Alena. If she'll be clean she will beat clean Eunsoo. And in Italy if Rika will be clean Alena will take the second place which means for her the ticket to the final. Here's my post from another thread:

Two skaters (except Alenka) who didn't skate yet: Stasya and Sonya.

For three girls just only five spots. It means someone should move. It probably could be Sonya (i wish she competed in Latvia instead of Alisa). Sigh. RusFed could decide to replace Sonya to Darya: just to make sure she and Nastya (both have 1st places) will go to the final. First and second places for each girl will be enough. But there will be other strong skaters. So it would be a tough challenge in Zagreb anyway. Or it could be even Gulyakova. But it won't be smart, considering her scores.

Also, if Stasya won't win stage in Minsk, then Sonya will compete anyway (or Gulyakova). But will it be Zagreb or Gdansk it's not clear.

So potentially:

Trusova, Tarakanova, Panenkova, (Konstantinova), Kostornaya.

Still I have doubts about Konstantinova. Prove I'm wrong, Stasya!

But for now JGPF looks like this:

Trusova
Tarakanova
Panenkova
Kostornaya
Lim
Kihira

 

[kalee]

Hey kalee, I also thought about this. But I don't know why you forgot Alena. If she'll be clean she will beat clean Eunsoo. And in Italy if Rika will be clean Alena will take the second place which means for her the ticket to the final. Here's my post from another thread:

@Puremagic -- The way you are feeling about Alena this year is exactly how you felt about Dasha last year - and the way the Fed is treating Alena now is exactly as they have done for Dasha last year too.

Namely, they will give precedence for current year spots to skaters who were competitive in last year's Nationals / JGP / Russian Cup competitions over current-season new bloomers. Stasya & Alisa Lozko, not to mention even our now-famed Alina Zagitova, were held back two seasons ago and Dasha was held back last season in exactly the same fashion, but the Fed is getting better at leaving headway to maneuver by at least naming the newcomers as subs in later JGP's to give themselves more options if the current skaters fail to deliver whereas they had not done so in 2015-2016 and suffered because of it.

Your prediction is certainly plausible, but for it to happen, both Stasya and Sonya have to bomb. While this is a possibility, at this point it has not happened yet and thus is by no means a certainty.

Alena was probably named to JGP6 also because the Fed did not want to make any assumptions / choices between Dasha and Alisa. Now that Dasha has earned her 2nd JGP (and is on her way to fulfilling the promise that you had predicted for her last season), the next step is for at least one, if not two, of Stasya + Sonya + Alena to deliver, and it's going to be really hard to predict exactly which one will be the one on that day (look at Nastya Gubanova).

 

[hanca]

After the latest changes in assignments we have for the next events:
Belarus - Trusova , Konstantinova
Croatia - Tarakanova, Samodurova
Poland - Kostornaya, Konstantinova
Italy- ?

With Panenkova winning in Latvia, she will be for sure guaranteed a spot. I think Gulyakova will get the second assignment as well.
If Konstantinova finishes lower then second place she will lose the second assignment to Gulyakova. If she gets silver medal, probably Samodurova will loose her spot completely and Gulyakova will be added in her place.
As Kostornaya was recently added, I think she will get the last event as well (unless she bombs in Poland and finishes off-podium).

It is too early to say whether Guliakova will get second spot. What if Samodurova beats Tarakanova? (Nothing is impossible, Tarakanova has not been consistent in the past, so she may have a great competition or she may be alright but beatable.) So then Samodurova would need another spot, and then it would depend whether Kostornaya looses her spot and Konstantinova and Guliakova get second spot, or if Samodurova and Panenkova get their second spot and then there would be two spots left for three ladies - Kostornaya, Guliakova and Konstantinova.

 

[tjb]

Zagreb -- Anastasia Tarakanova (expected win to reach JGPF); Sofia Samodurova (can podium if she beats Mako Yamashita even if she might not necessarily beat Young You)

where is all the hype for young you coming from? she looks like "160-170 at max" skater to me.
koreans was hyping her as "the next yuna", because she landed some quads at the age of 12, but really, what's so good about her? she's very unpolished and artisticly unconvincing skater who underrotates a lot. yelim kim seems like a much stronger girl to me

 

[randomfan]

where is all the hype for young you coming from? she looks like "160-170 at max" skater to me.
koreans was hyping her as "the next yuna", because she landed some quads at the age of 12, but really, what's so good about her? she's very unpolished and artisticly unconvincing skater who underrotates a lot. yelim kim seems like a much stronger girl to me

She won senior nationals in 2016, so she has some reputation.