So Who's an Underdog and Who's a Favorite at Nationals?

[Joesitz (RIP)]

US Ladies

I don't think if Sasha skates, that Kimmie will be the favorite. Kimmie will be the underdog.. If Sasha does not skate, then I think the odds on winning will be evenly distributed between Kimmie, Katie, Emily, Alissa and Bebe because all of them will havve 3x3s this season. Only 3A will win. Placements are special because those three will head for Tokyo.

Japanese Ladies

It seems to me that Mao will be running free and clear of the competition and be the favorite. However, underdog Fumie may just rock the boat. Miki and Nakano are just not up to it. Placements, of course, will be interesting, and whomever the top 3 are will be right in their own backyard.

Canadian Ladies

I think Joannie will continue to be the favorite. Mira, the underdog and still developing.

US Men

I think there are two favorites: Lysacek and Weir. Underdogs will be fighting for 3rd place. Maybe Tommy Steenberg.

Japanese Men

Like the Americans, the Japanese boys: Takehashi and Oda will be battling it out for the win. No real favorite between them. Is there a third coming up?

Canadian Men

I don't see anyone but Buttle to be the favorite, but given the rivalry between he and Eman, anything can happen. Looking for the battle between Christopher and Sean. Hey one them could knock out the two favorites.

Joe

 

[slutskayafan21]

Sandhu will retire I think.

 

[MKFSfan]

Hmmm...At this point last year, everyone was banking on Kimmie to join the podium with Michelle and Sasha. There were some rumblings about Emily, since she was Bronze Jr. World Champ. Then came the fall and we got swept up in how Alissa was doing, while Kimmie and Emily bombed in their GPs, and heading into Nationals, Alissa was a favorite to medal.

I think, without Michelle and Sasha, Kimmie will have enormous pressure to repeat her Worlds winning LP. Emily and Alissa seem to be in the USFSA's good graces and probably will be pushed for. Leaving Katy-who could be an underdog to medal. I know Christine mealed at Jr. Worlds over Alissa, but with work, lots of work, on Alissa's jumps, she should be better in the fall. At least, I hope so!

For men's, I bet Johnny is the favorite leaving Evan to challenge him (I hope he wins!).

Other than that...no idea! I would LOVE to see NNN and her partner to become a top US team. Not sure who else is staying eligible.

 

[Spun Silver]

Hmm. I think Sasha WILL be the underdog. At Olympics, the media line on her was "she has finally conquered her nerves and is going for gold." Didn't happen. Meanwhile the teenager with no nerves was anointed by Peggy F as the face of the future in skating and proved she was the real competitor and champ at worlds.

So I foresee Kimmie being the media favorite and a Kimmie-Sasha duel being played up. I hope Kimmie can handle the pressure and I hope Sasha thrives with a little less of it.

I pretty much agree with all Joe's other assessments but hope to see Eman stay in another year and fight well.

 

[Skye]

Japanese Men

Like the Americans, the Japanese boys: Takehashi and Oda will be battling it out for the win. No real favorite between them. Is there a third coming up?

Takahiko Kozuka, 2006 World Junior Champion, placed just off the podium at the Nationals for the past 2 years. He's still young (only 17) and has problem with jump consistency, but I believe there is some raw talent yet to blossom.

 

[MKFSfan]

I think is some ways, if Sasha remains eligible, there will be MORE pressure, not less, to succeed. She can't let the "young ones" pass her by, and I believe she will be concerned about that. I just don't know if she has that "underdog" fight in her. Last Worlds, she was an underdog to Irina and it was OK because she KNEW she wasn't going to beat Irina. IF Sasha comes blazing out in the SP, expect HUGE hype. Yes, Peggy has jumped on the Kimmie bandwagon, but she'll hop right back on Sasha's if she competes. Until/unless Kimmie consistently beats Sasha, everyone will consider Sasha a front runner at Nationals, no matter if she doesn't give a clean performance all fall.

 

[Spun Silver]

Takahiko Kozuka, 2006 World Junior Champion, placed just off the podium at the Nationals for the past 2 years. He's still young (only 17) and has problem with jump consistency, but I believe there is some raw talent yet to blossom.

Oh goodie, another wonderful Japanese man! Can't wait! I'm already in double-love with Oda and Takahashi.

 

[Spun Silver]

I think is some ways, if Sasha remains eligible, there will be MORE pressure, not less, to succeed. She can't let the "young ones" pass her by, and I believe she will be concerned about that. I just don't know if she has that "underdog" fight in her. Last Worlds, she was an underdog to Irina and it was OK because she KNEW she wasn't going to beat Irina. IF Sasha comes blazing out in the SP, expect HUGE hype. Yes, Peggy has jumped on the Kimmie bandwagon, but she'll hop right back on Sasha's if she competes. Until/unless Kimmie consistently beats Sasha, everyone will consider Sasha a front runner at Nationals, no matter if she doesn't give a clean performance all fall.

But isn't it possible that Sasha will ONLY skate Nationals this year, and Kimmie may do very well all season. In that case, I don't really see Sasha dominating. And Peggy's commentary on her is VERY ambivalent - "no one can touch her spirals," but also things like "maybe she's not really a competitor, it's painful to watch her knowing she's probably going to fall." (paraphrase) I think after Olympics, everyone is used to her coming out blazing in the SP and then....

 

[nymkfan51]

To me, Kimmie is the clear favorite, whether Sasha skates or not. The youngsters have officially passed her by, and I really don't expect she will compete next season.
Kimmie's buggest competition I believe will be Katy. Not sure Joe, about all the ladies you named doing 3/3's. I am betting on Kimmie and Katy, but no way do I see Emily or Alissa landing them ... Bebe either.

The men ... a tossup between Evan and Johnny. I'd probably give the edge to Evan, but not by much.

Mao is obviously the strongest Japanese lady ... probably no surprises there.

The biggest matchups IMO, will be Kimmie, Mao and YuNa at Worlds. Now that will be a contest worth watching!!!

 

[slutskayafan21]

I doubt it will happen but it would be very interesting to see Kwan, Meissner, and Cohen all three going head to head at Nationals. I would feel sorry for the other skaters though as none would have a prayer of qualfiying for Worlds, unless Liang or Taylor really improves from where they are this year.

 

[hockeyfan228]

I think Meissner is the absolute favorite, as long as she keeps her jumps. She's made strides in presentation all year, and I think she may have the physique to bypass the puberty monster. While I don't imagine a 95 to 96 "Salome" kind of break-through, I expect to see more sophisticated programs from her this year. Regardless of 3/3's, Hughes, the best competitor of all of the other Ladies nerves-wise, still hasn't the consistency for an entire program. Czisny has shaky jump technique, and even when skaters reform their technique, they tend to lose their jumps temporarily in the process. Liang has the goods, but hasn't been healthy or consistent enough for the top yet, which really is a shame. I'd love to see her make the World team, though.

I think Taylor may be Meissner's biggest competition this year.

Any attempt that Cohen could have made this year on conquering nerves going into the Olympics was shattered by losing her jumps so close to Torino.

 

[slutskayafan21]

hockeyfan228 do you think either Cohen or Kwan will even be there to compete?

 

[rob43]

In the US I'm guessing Scott Smith or Ryan Bradley will make a strong run for the third spot.

I actually think Katie Taylor is getting ready to take off so I'll go with a Kimmie-Katie smackdown. I doubt Kwan will be there but she always found a way to either rise to the occasion or drown the others in the legend of Kwan come January hence I'd never count her out at this comp. Also I'm looking forward to seeing NNN and L- they're my new favorite if not hte judges.

I really wnat to see how Japan's Nats turn out. The have a lot of potential in ladies.

Also Chinese Nats in pairs should be a pretty good battle.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Ryan Bradley as the 3rd U.S man? If I were an American I would cringe at that thought.

 

[Vash01]

US ladies- IMO Kimmie will be the favorite, as the reigning world champion. However, if Sasha is skating well and beating Kimmie at GP's, she could be considered a co-favorite by that time.

The underdogs- Katy, Emily, Bebe, and Michelle if she decides to compete. IMO Christine Zukowski is a couple years in the waiting.

US men- Lysacek and Weir are co-favorites, regardless of the GP results. Underdogs- Scott Smith, Ryan Bradley, Tommy Steenberg will be fighting for the third berth. IMO Scott Smith has to be favored over the other two because he has the quad.

Japanese ladies: I must be the only one that does not see Mao as the clear favorite and unbeatable. A lot could depend on the GP series. Fumie could be a co-favorite, based on past records.

Underdogs: Nakano, Miki, and all the young upcoming Japanese ladies. Nakano has potential. I would love to see Yukina Ota in this group.

Japanese men- Takahashi and Oda will be co-favorites. I am not familiar with other Japanese men to list the underdogs.

Canadian ladies- Joannie as the favorite; Mira as the underdog. What happened to Cynthia?

Canadian men- Buttle will be a clear favorite. Sandhu may perform better if he is the underdog, and I think he will be. Other underdogs- Chris Mabee, Shawn Sawyer.

Vash

 

[R.D.]

A little too soon, possibly? Sounds like a December/January question to me.

Anyway, knowing what I do RIGHT NOW, at US Nats how can the reigning World champ NOT be the favorite? Come on, now. I think it also depends on how she does that season. But I think the majority of the press/fans will be on Kimmie's side. If Cohen decides to show up, I think it will be played up as a "healthy rivalry".

As for the Japanese I wouldn't count anyone out. Yes Miki has had a bad season but that doesn't mean a comeback "can't happen". Mao's got pressure, Arakawa is out of the picture, and Suguri wants it all.

I dunno. I seem to be losing interest pretty quickly. No one worth watching, really (IMO).

 

[slutskayafan21]

If I were to call the Japanese ladies Nationals right now I would say Asada is the heavy heavy favorite. Suguri is a narrow favorite for 2nd place over Nakano and Ando. I know Suguri was well beyond them at Olympics and Worlds this year(atleast in points)but she is getting older and I would expect younger skaters to close down the gap on her.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Has anyone read the topic?. It is not a prediction thread. It is simply to mention whom do you think is the underdog and favorite? Once that is done, you can add a prediction, if you must. I don't care but give me your underdog and favorite first.

Joe

 

[slutskayafan21]

U.S Nationals:

Mens favorite-Lysacek
Womens favorite-Meissner


Japansese Nationals:

Mens favorite-Oda
Womens favorite-Asada


Russian Nationals:

Womens favorite-Sokolova
Mens favorite-Griazev
Pairs favorite-Obertas/Slavnov
Dance favorite-Domnina/Kostomarov(if they team up)



Canadian Nationals:

Mens favorite-Buttle
Womens favorite-Rochette
Pairs favorite-Dube/Davison
Dance favorite-Dubreuil/Lauzon

 

[slutskayafan21]

Chinese Nationals:

Mens favorite: Chengiang Li(if he is continuing)

Pairs favorite: Zhang/Zhang(unfortunately)


Swiss Nationals:

Mens favorite-Jamal Othman(the judges have always hated Lambiel and Othman will probably improve since last year)

Ladies favorite-Sarah Meier