- Joined
- May 17, 2011
You're absolutely correct about Ashley's stellar season last year. It's great that the US has a clear leader now, who can be relied on to turn out clean programs nearly all of the time, and the USFSA wouldn't just give her those benefits . I'm just wondering how she'll stack up at Nats when the pressure will be on to repeat her first place finish.
Give Gracie some time. She's only been to one major int'l competition as a senior and, as we saw, it wasn't that she lacked the ability. If she can overcome her pre-program jitters, I'm thinking we'll see the same consistent, reliable star who wowed the junior judges; she's still my prediction for that second Worlds spot. I need to watch more of Mirai before I pass judgement on her, but I don't think that Christina is better than Gracie, at all. She lacks both the consistency and the support from the federation, and overall, she possesses very little of a "wow-factor" to set her apart from the rest of the field. Her medal at SA was very, very surprising and hinged mainly on Sotnikova's mistakes.
I would also count out Alissa (injury), Caroline (consistency and general unknownness), and Agnes (same reasons as Caroline), but after Osmond's win at SC, I've been a little more cautious about dismissing skaters. We've yet to see Agnes or Alissa perform at their GP events.
Early, early, early predictions for Nats:
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Gracie Gold or Mirai Nagasu
3. Gracie Gold or Mirai Nagasu
4. Alissa Czisny
5. Christina Gao
6. Caroline Zhang
Ouch! Poor Christina if she finishes fifth for the fourth year in a row. I think she has it in her to move up this year, though. She had a presence and a confidence at Skate America that I had not seen in her before.
As for the others, I think Gold and Nagasu will be contenders for medals along with Gao and perhaps Zawadski. I think we may also see one or two of the young skaters move up into the top six or so. I have absolutely no idea what Czisny will be able to do, and I don't see Zhang improving enough to make in impact unless a lot of skaters go splat. However, over the last many years, a lot of skaters have gone splat, so you never know.