U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

[Olympia]

R.D., that is what many of us are saying. Really!

But I think we rehash it mostly because we just love having a chance talking about Michelle, and she's not skating now, so we have to go back into the past. It's been my experience that most skating geeks (such as myself) are also history geeks (and of course statistics geeks). I'm sure that's true with baseball geeks as well. Be patient with us.

I agree with you about getting a medal after the fact. The minute I read Polymer's post, I thought of the gymnastics team. A medal doesn't have a freshness date. It brings a thrill whenever it's given. That's why Jim Thorpe's family worked for decades to get his Olympic gold medals reinstated, even after his death. And rightly so, in my opinion.

 

[PolymerBob]

And on a lighter note, Rachael was at a potato festival cook-off, and served as a celebrity judge.

http://www.montevistajournal.com/v2_news_articles.php?heading=0&page=72&story_id=2506

 

[Nigel]

R.D., that is what many of us are saying. Really!

But I think we rehash it mostly because we just love having a chance talking about Michelle, and she's not skating now, so we have to go back into the past. It's been my experience that most skating geeks (such as myself) are also history geeks (and of course statistics geeks). I'm sure that's true with baseball geeks as well. Be patient with us.

I agree with you about getting a medal after the fact. The minute I read Polymer's post, I thought of the gymnastics team. A medal doesn't have a freshness date. It brings a thrill whenever it's given. That's why Jim Thorpe's family worked for decades to get his Olympic gold medals reinstated, even after his death. And rightly so, in my opinion.

Wow...at least the thread has returned to US athletes...now, maybe back the the actual topic of the thread! ;-)

 

[Mathman]

And on a lighter note, Rachael was at a potato festival cook-off, and served as a celebrity judge.

http://www.montevistajournal.com/v2_news_articles.php?heading=0&page=72&story_id=2506

Congratulations to Radio Shack for winning a prize at the potato-cooking contest for baking a carrot cake.

Also, kudos to the combination potato-chef / ice-sculptor. Multi-talented people, those Coloradans,

 

[R.D.]

R.D., that is what many of us are saying. Really!

But I think we rehash it mostly because we just love having a chance talking about Michelle, and she's not skating now, so we have to go back into the past. It's been my experience that most skating geeks (such as myself) are also history geeks (and of course statistics geeks). I'm sure that's true with baseball geeks as well. Be patient with us.

Well, if I may be frank- MK is really not relevant here given it's (supposed to be) a PREDICTION and SPECULATION thread

 

[R.D.]

It's being reported on FSU that Ashley Wagner is no longer in the Nebelhorn Trophy lineup.

http://www.deu-event.de/results/Nebelhorn_2010/index.html

Reasons are unknown as of now. Hopefully it's not because of a serious injury.

 

[janetfan]

I predict Alissa will surprise us with a strong comeback season and make the GPF and medal at Natls.

Yuka will be proclaimed not only as "coach of the year" but as a miracle worker. :yes:

If Alissa does get back to her best skating will it still be enough - or have the younger Ladies passed her by? :think:

 

[R.D.]

I predict Alissa will surprise us with a strong comeback season and make the GPF and medal at Natls.

Actually, I don't think that's too far-fetched of a possibility. Czisny has the knack for having these "run streaks" (particularly early in the season) and surprising people when they have all but written her off. I mean, after her disastrous showing at 2007 worlds people wrote her off...and then 2009 Nats happened. People are beginning to write her off again now- and we'll see.

But making the GPF? I had a look at her two events and looks like she has one relatively easy event (SC) and a medium one (TEB). She can (and should, even) get a medal at SC but I'm not sure about the TEB.

I think a medal at Nats is unlikely...but if it does occur- for goodness sake please don't put her on the World team again...

 

[PolymerBob]

I predict Alissa will surprise us with a strong comeback season and make the GPF and medal at Natls.

Yuka will be proclaimed not only as "coach of the year" but as a miracle worker. :yes:

Well, the alleged "experts" on this board have told me a hundred times that a coach can't work miracles over a single summer. I guess both of us will soon find out if they are right.

 

[janetfan]

Actually, I don't think that's too far-fetched of a possibility. Czisny has the knack for having these "run streaks" (particularly early in the season) and surprising people when they have all but written her off. I mean, after her disastrous showing at 2007 worlds people wrote her off...and then 2009 Nats happened. People are beginning to write her off again now- and we'll see.

But making the GPF? I had a look at her two events and looks like she has one relatively easy event (SC) and a medium one (TEB). She can (and should, even) get a medal at SC but I'm not sure about the TEB.

I think a medal at Nats is unlikely...but if it does occur- for goodness sake please don't put her on the World team again...

It would depend on the color of her medal. Pewter and Bronze won't do it - but if she gets Silver she will be going to Worlds.
No one will put Alissa on the Natl team - she has to skate her way onto it just like the others.

Looking at the depth and talent level of the current USA ladies I see Alissa having a chance.

 

[R.D.]

Technically, yes, if she skates her best in either segment the US judges will give her big scores.

I want to send our best team, fully rested and healthy.

If the theories are right, maybe they'll make her "work harder" for a 3rd trip. I sure hope so...

 

[janetfan]

Well, the alleged "experts" on this board have told me a hundred times that a coach can't work miracles over a single summer. I guess both of us will soon find out if they are right.

There is a difference in Alissa's situation and Caroline's. Alissa has been known to beat herself. Caroline needs to fix up major technical problems to contend again at the senior level.

I would be very happy if Caroline has increased her speed and starts showing better jumping technique. I really like her but I think she needs to worry about 2011-12 season and spend this one working on those problems.

Maybe she will do it this season - but you seem to be in the minority. Mirai came back from injuries and with a new coach and her season turned out OK. Wishing the same for Caroline.

 

[Olympia]

If Alissa does get back to her best skating will it still be enough - or have the younger Ladies passed her by? :think:

If only the younger ladies WOULD pass Alissa by! At this moment, we don't seem to have any young rockets in there, which is part of the problem. We have good workaday skaters, we have possible someday skaters, we have formerly promising skaters who are going through a rough patch, and we have Mirai, who's excellent compared to the other Americans but still a question mark in the world. In that crop, a woman like Alissa who has superior skills in at least a few areas remains a standout. I love to watch her when she's "on," but I agree that she's not going to be the one who redeems American skating unless you're right about Yuka as a miracle worker. (And wouldn't I love for that to happen!)

 

[R.D.]

Gao skating now in Austria, apparently:

http://www.isuresults.com/results/jgpaut2010/SEG003.HTM

Something else to go on.

 

[Olympia]

Thanks, R.D.! That looks hopeful. Good work by Gao so far.

 

[silverlake22]

Gao just hit 3f-3t, 3lo, 2a in her SP and scored 58.07. Her PCS was 24.86, and that's at a junior international competition. I think she is definitely a contender for the US World team this year, with scores like that, she can hang with Flatt, Wagner, Czisny, Zhang for sure.

 

[janetfan]

Gao just hit 3f-3t, 3lo, 2a in her SP and scored 58.07. Her PCS was 24.86, and that's at a junior international competition. I think she is definitely a contender for the US World team this year, with scores like that, she can hang with Flatt, Wagner, Czisny, Zhang for sure.

Doesn't she have a 3Lz? That's a nice jump layout but she still finished second.
But way to go Christina - looks like she is off to a good start!

 

[R.D.]

Well, the alleged "experts" on this board have told me a hundred times that a coach can't work miracles over a single summer. I guess both of us will soon find out if they are right.

In the case of maybe ONE comp from this girl(s) that happens to be good, some (i.e. fanboyz) may be quick to wave the "I told you so" sign. Then the next comp comes and it's a monumental collapse. Caution, and patience is the key here.

 

[FlattFan]

Doesn't she have a 3Lz? That's a nice jump layout but she still finished second.
But way to go Christina - looks like she is off to a good start!

She doesn't have a Lutz, she has a flutz.
The other girl did a 3Lz-3T, 3lo, 2A. Harder combo, more points. Much better presentation, though.
Polina A also did a 3Lz-3T, 3lo, 2A, but Ured on the toe, the loop, and trouble landing on the 2A. Also much better presentation.

 

[PolymerBob]

Christina is doing very well here. It looks as if a podium finish is likely.