U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread
- Thread starter R.D.
- Start date
- Joined
- Mar 27, 2010
What about Michelle?
Kwan did not successfully defend her FIRST title, though.
- Joined
- Mar 27, 2010
Ohh, Okay.
Ye-eaaaah.... And then she defended the title seven times in a row ... so maybe THAT is part of the reason why no U.S. lady has defended her title the first time in 20 years. Because Michelle didn't give them the chance to win it in the first place for seven years straight.
I don't know, R.D. I think it would be more relevant to say that Rachael would be the first lady to defend her national title in six years. (since 2005) Just saying.
Still, it would be a great feat on her part. I STILL think that Alissa and Mirai are our two ladies with the highest scoring potential when they are perfect. However, Rachael is the U.S. lady most likely to BE perfect. (well, perfect for her but for that goes for every skater) I wouldn't count out Rachael for a world medal this year. I think it would be more likely had she actually won a GP and not been defeated by a sub-par Carolina and a then a newcomer (who didn't even skate her best.) Partly it's because Rachael wasn't at HER best. But I also think, to be blunt, the INT judges just don't love Rachael. However, Rachael made the GP final, no? We'll see how she does there and maybe if she skates two clean programs and gets a standing ovation it will help build her reputation. Especially if she follows that up with a national win.
I should have made it clear above, and now I realize maybe I wasn't. I was referring to successfully defending the title after winning it the FIRST time, which is quite hard to do. IIRC, it hasn't been done at US Nationals in 25 years. Yeah, yeah I know Kwan dominated for a stretch in the early 2000s, yada yada, but that's not the point. The point is being able to rise to the occasion and fend off those gunning for you after finding yourself at the top. To successfully switch from the role of the chaser to that of the chased. MK in 1997, BUT ALSO Meissner in 2008, Nagasu in 2009, Czisny in 2010...they all fell victim to the pressure of being the chased. That's the pressure Rachel is going to feel at this year's Nats, and given how consistent everyone says she is, I'd be interested to see how she handles this kind of pressure. It's different than what she may be used to.
Internationally, Flatt will get hosed every time, but nationally, she is still very much a threat for that title as long as she's in the building.
Internationally, Flatt will get hosed every time, but nationally, she is still very much a threat for that title as long as she's in the building.
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I thought it was well-known that MK's inconsistency in 1997 was due to a growth spurt and boot problems. Of course, she must have felt the pressure of being chased by the likes of Lipinski, et al., but I'm sure the first two issues I mentioned played a huge part in why she faltered during that season.
- Joined
- May 15, 2009
I remember '97 as the year the growth spurt caused Michelle trouble.
She grew two inches I believe.
Now imagine what Mirai and Caroline went through having grown 5-6 inches...........
Frank said when he first started to train Mirai her center of gravityy had changed so much he had to change everything - he said it was like starting over.
- Joined
- Mar 27, 2010
Mirai was on one ankle in 2008-2009, too, along with an even bigger growth spurt than Michelle, around, what was it, 5-6 inches?
Of course. I'd call her the favorite. Maybe not an overwhelming favorite like Michelle in her day but if anyone can be called the favorite she can.
...and again, I think it will be interesting to see how she handles being in this position. It's not an easy position to be in, and AFAIK Flatt has not been in such a position (at this level, anyway) before. At least, for the past 3 years she has not been lower then 2nd which cannot be said for any of the other Contenders.
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2009
I'm starting to worry about Agnes now. This bombing FS thing seems to be a habit. If she hopes to medal at nationals she won't be able to get away with a craptastic LP even if her SP is great.
Just watched PACs junior ladies, and Katerina Kulgyeko is fantastic! She had a bunch of jump problems in the 2nd half of the program but everything about her skating (including the jumps, when she's on) is just fantastic. She has a classic Russian style but brings her own personality to her programs, I also love that she skates to interesting music. She also is one person that looks great it a unitard, it makes her spins and long lines look that much better. If she skates well at nationals I wouldn't be surprised if she won the junior title. Everyone else was pretty disappointing, but I did like Edmunds a lot, she needs more tech and some of her jumps looked UR but for a 12 year old she has a nice presence on the ice and great spins. She's cute as a button too and looks about a whole foot taller than last season (I kept worrying she was going to trip over her feet that are currently way too big for her body
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Just watched PACs junior ladies, and Katerina Kulgyeko is fantastic! She had a bunch of jump problems in the 2nd half of the program but everything about her skating (including the jumps, when she's on) is just fantastic. She has a classic Russian style but brings her own personality to her programs, I also love that she skates to interesting music. She also is one person that looks great it a unitard, it makes her spins and long lines look that much better. If she skates well at nationals I wouldn't be surprised if she won the junior title. Everyone else was pretty disappointing, but I did like Edmunds a lot, she needs more tech and some of her jumps looked UR but for a 12 year old she has a nice presence on the ice and great spins. She's cute as a button too and looks about a whole foot taller than last season (I kept worrying she was going to trip over her feet that are currently way too big for her body
)I read that Zawadzki had consistency issues as a young skater, which started to improve last season. Perhaps the increased expectations and competition has knocked her back a couple years. She reminds me of Alexe Gilles- junior champ, moderate hype then gets to the senior level and struggles majorly with consistency. I don't expect significant things to happen for either skater.
I expect her to handle the pressue just fine. She's Rachael. And I think in her case, the pressure of going in as defending champion won't be quite as high as the pressure she faced in last year's nationals, with the Olympic team at stake. I think it's more injuries and the other skaters she has to worry about.
- Joined
- May 15, 2009
I agree Rachael does well under pressure. But we also have to acknowledge she is the current UR queen of American skating. She has had no less than 2 UR's and sometimes more at her last four Intl events. Many thought she had a couple at Natls that were "mysteriously" overlooked. :scowl:
My worry is that the judges will score Rachael as Mirai's equal again in the pcs at Natls when IMO Mirai is 4-8 points better.
If one skater gets called for URs and the other doesn't it effects the outcome. If one skater who the Intl judges do not recognize as being strong in the pcs suddenly gets her highest pcs of the season - well the outcome is not hard to predict.
I hope Natls calls all URs not just some and that artistry in skating is earned on the ice and not because one skater is unfairly being propped up. US Skating can give Rachael 250 points at Natls this season and as we saw - it will not effect her score at Worlds. If she UR's or has edge problems they nail her. Her skating is judged for what is in the componets - average at best.
For me - the most evil judges in the universe and the least fair/consistent tech panel are right here in the USA.
Waaaa!!
laugh
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Well, last year's result was certainly a topic of hot debate for a few weeks. I thought at the time that Nagasu should have won since she was so much more engaging than Rachel was. I think Nagasu would have won that one under 6.0 (but the Oly team would be the same). Flatt was flat for me that night, but what can you do.
And Flatt was hacked at SA, but again, what can you do? It appears she was injured and fighting through pain, anyway, so maybe when it comes down to the nitty-gritty she wasn't quite as sharp on those jumps as usual. Still, after what happened in Vancouver I'm convinced they'll find a way to hold her down even if she does her best. I hope it doesn't frustrate her TOO much.
And Flatt was hacked at SA, but again, what can you do? It appears she was injured and fighting through pain, anyway, so maybe when it comes down to the nitty-gritty she wasn't quite as sharp on those jumps as usual. Still, after what happened in Vancouver I'm convinced they'll find a way to hold her down even if she does her best. I hope it doesn't frustrate her TOO much.
- Joined
- May 15, 2009
RD it becomes a matter of are the US jugdes propping her up or are the Intl judges holding her down.
Let's go back. Flatt got away with a UR in her Olympics SP. They nailed her for two in her LP. Flatt had all kinds of troubles at Worlds and was nailed for URs. At NHK wasn't Flatt nailed again for URs in her SP and LP? And we saw it again at SA.
My point is that if US Skating overlooks her consistent tech problems and boosts her pcs up to Mirai's level - of course she will win.
It has little to with reliable skating and much more to do with reliable judging.
I think all the U.S. ladies have serious UR problems. More to the point, I think the judging has become so strict about UR that it's the bane of almost every lady skater's existence. I think Yuna and Joannie were the one who suffered the least last season.
I used to agree with R.D. that after Vancouver there was a risk the U.S. judges would be more strict with Rachael. That still could be. On the other hand, she and Alissa have so far been the best U.S. lady performers in the GP series and that will help. I'm back to where I was last year, which is that whoever does best at National will be on the podium. I too had a problem with the results last year but I did think the U.S. team was right.
This year I have enjoyed Rachael more than Ashley.
My prediction is that Rachael, Alissa and Mirai will be on the podium and that Gao and Agnes but especially Gao could be the surprise.
Lo and behold Rachael, Alissa and Mirai have been our last three champions.
I think there's a reason for that.
If the three skate perfectly this is how I predict they will finish:
1. Mirai
2. Alissa
3. Rachael
I think there is a chance that if Gao is clean the judges will go gaga and rank her over Rachael, however. I don't know if that would be fair but it's just a feeling. I think Mirai and Alissa are shoulders above the other Americans WHEN they skate well. But Mirai seems to be having problems and Alissa is Alissa. We'll see how they do in TEB. Alissa just needs to pull it together and she'll be fine.
With Mirai, it's a matter of how her training has gone since her last GP. I think it could be deceptive though because whether or not Mirai does well this time, there is a lot of time until Nationals and she could be at peak form by then.
I think Mirai showed last year that she, of all the U.S. ladies, as the potential to be world class. And the judges will be dying to send her to worlds as long as she lets them.
I used to agree with R.D. that after Vancouver there was a risk the U.S. judges would be more strict with Rachael. That still could be. On the other hand, she and Alissa have so far been the best U.S. lady performers in the GP series and that will help. I'm back to where I was last year, which is that whoever does best at National will be on the podium. I too had a problem with the results last year but I did think the U.S. team was right.
This year I have enjoyed Rachael more than Ashley.
My prediction is that Rachael, Alissa and Mirai will be on the podium and that Gao and Agnes but especially Gao could be the surprise.
Lo and behold Rachael, Alissa and Mirai have been our last three champions.
I think there's a reason for that.
If the three skate perfectly this is how I predict they will finish:
1. Mirai
2. Alissa
3. Rachael
I think there is a chance that if Gao is clean the judges will go gaga and rank her over Rachael, however. I don't know if that would be fair but it's just a feeling. I think Mirai and Alissa are shoulders above the other Americans WHEN they skate well. But Mirai seems to be having problems and Alissa is Alissa. We'll see how they do in TEB. Alissa just needs to pull it together and she'll be fine.
With Mirai, it's a matter of how her training has gone since her last GP. I think it could be deceptive though because whether or not Mirai does well this time, there is a lot of time until Nationals and she could be at peak form by then.
I think Mirai showed last year that she, of all the U.S. ladies, as the potential to be world class. And the judges will be dying to send her to worlds as long as she lets them.
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