- Joined
- Feb 17, 2007
There has been much discussion on national inflation, the belief that national scores are inherently higher than ISU scores. I decided to do a survey by taking the top 5 finishers from the last 2 US Nationals in all 4 disciplines. I list that skater's/team's national score, their score from their next ISU event, and the difference. ( The * means that skater/team has not had an ISU event since Nats, so I had to take the previous ISU event. ) Here is what I came up with.
Men
skater ........ Nats score ..... next ISU .... difference
2008
Evan Lysacek .... 244.77 ........ 233.11 ....... 11.66
Johnny Weir ...... 244.77 ........ 221.84 ....... 22.93
Stephen Carrier . 228.06 ........ 218.30 ........ 9.76
Jeremy Abbott .... 221.85 ........ 206.40 ....... 15.45
Ryan Bradley .... 221.31 ........ 212.75 ........ 8.56
2009
Jeremy Abbott ... 241.89 ........ 216.94 ....... 24.95
Brandon Mroz .... 229.70 ........ 196.78 ....... 32.92
Evan Lysacek .... 229.10 ........ 237.15 ....... -8.05
Ryan Bradley ..... 221.40 ....... *175.62 ....... 45.78
Johnny Weir ...... 203.99 ....... *215.50 ....... -11.51
Ladies
skater ........ Nats score ..... next ISU .... difference
2008
Mirai Nagasu ...... 190.41 ........ 162.89 ....... 27.52
Rachael Flatt ..... 188.73 ........ 172.19 ....... 16.54
Ashley Wagner ... 188.56 ........ 152.46 ....... 36.10
Caroline Zhang ... 173.16 ........ 171.84 ........ 1.32
Bebe Liang ........ 164.87 ........ 144.25 ....... 20.62
2009
Alissa Czisny ..... 178.06 ........ 159.81 ....... 18.25
Rachael Flatt ...... 173.78 ........ 162.83 ....... 10.95
Caroline Zhang ... 171.08 ........ 171.22 ....... -0.14
Ashley Wagner ... 165.33 ........ 153.57 ....... 11.76
Mirai Nagasu ...... 159.99 ........*124.22 ....... 35.77
Pairs
2008
team ............... Nats score ... next ISU .... difference
McLaughlin/Brubaker .. 190.74 ...... 172.69 ........ 18.05
Inoue/Baldwin .............. 183.17 ...... 156.00 ........ 27.17
Castile/Okolski ............ 175.07 ...... 159.00 ........ 15.08
Vise/Trent .................... 161.20 ...... 134.41 ........ 26.79
Evora/Ladwig .............. 158.94 ...... 138.14 ........ 20.80
2009
McLaughlin/Brubaker .. 178.76 ...... 164.01 ........ 14.75
Denney/Barrett ............ 176.27 ...... 161.69 ........ 14.58
Inoue/Baldwin .............. 171.08 ...... 157.38 ........ 13.70
Evora/Ladwig .............. 159.95 ..... *143.88 ........ 16.07
Castile/Okolski ............ 157.01 ..... *146.03 ........ 10.98
Ice Dance
2008
team ............... Nats score ... next ISU .... difference
Belbib/Agosto ............. 216.07 ........ 203.00 ....... 13.07
Davis/White ............... 206.82 ........ 199.45 ........ 7.37
Navarro/Bommentre .. 187.94 ........ 180.65 ........ 7.29
Samuelson/Bates ...... 175.16 ........ 181.66 ....... -6.50
wester/Barantsev ....... 169.37 ........ 141.06 ....... 28.31
2009
Davis/White ................ 201.68 ........ 192.39 ........ 9.29
Samuelson/Bates ...... 181.64 ........ 180.79 ........ 0.85
Navarro/Bommentre .. 176.30 ........ 151.82 ....... 24.48
Hubbell/Hubbell .......... 171.51 ........ 161.34 ....... 10.17
Matthews/Gislason ...... This team has no ISU events.
As you can see, there were only 4 instances out of 39 where the ISU score is higher. This indicates there is some kind of inflation going on. The average inflation of the 39 samples is 15.47 points. This is fairly significant. I don't know if this is actually a "problem" of any kind, it's just very interesting.
Men
skater ........ Nats score ..... next ISU .... difference
2008
Evan Lysacek .... 244.77 ........ 233.11 ....... 11.66
Johnny Weir ...... 244.77 ........ 221.84 ....... 22.93
Stephen Carrier . 228.06 ........ 218.30 ........ 9.76
Jeremy Abbott .... 221.85 ........ 206.40 ....... 15.45
Ryan Bradley .... 221.31 ........ 212.75 ........ 8.56
2009
Jeremy Abbott ... 241.89 ........ 216.94 ....... 24.95
Brandon Mroz .... 229.70 ........ 196.78 ....... 32.92
Evan Lysacek .... 229.10 ........ 237.15 ....... -8.05
Ryan Bradley ..... 221.40 ....... *175.62 ....... 45.78
Johnny Weir ...... 203.99 ....... *215.50 ....... -11.51
Ladies
skater ........ Nats score ..... next ISU .... difference
2008
Mirai Nagasu ...... 190.41 ........ 162.89 ....... 27.52
Rachael Flatt ..... 188.73 ........ 172.19 ....... 16.54
Ashley Wagner ... 188.56 ........ 152.46 ....... 36.10
Caroline Zhang ... 173.16 ........ 171.84 ........ 1.32
Bebe Liang ........ 164.87 ........ 144.25 ....... 20.62
2009
Alissa Czisny ..... 178.06 ........ 159.81 ....... 18.25
Rachael Flatt ...... 173.78 ........ 162.83 ....... 10.95
Caroline Zhang ... 171.08 ........ 171.22 ....... -0.14
Ashley Wagner ... 165.33 ........ 153.57 ....... 11.76
Mirai Nagasu ...... 159.99 ........*124.22 ....... 35.77
Pairs
2008
team ............... Nats score ... next ISU .... difference
McLaughlin/Brubaker .. 190.74 ...... 172.69 ........ 18.05
Inoue/Baldwin .............. 183.17 ...... 156.00 ........ 27.17
Castile/Okolski ............ 175.07 ...... 159.00 ........ 15.08
Vise/Trent .................... 161.20 ...... 134.41 ........ 26.79
Evora/Ladwig .............. 158.94 ...... 138.14 ........ 20.80
2009
McLaughlin/Brubaker .. 178.76 ...... 164.01 ........ 14.75
Denney/Barrett ............ 176.27 ...... 161.69 ........ 14.58
Inoue/Baldwin .............. 171.08 ...... 157.38 ........ 13.70
Evora/Ladwig .............. 159.95 ..... *143.88 ........ 16.07
Castile/Okolski ............ 157.01 ..... *146.03 ........ 10.98
Ice Dance
2008
team ............... Nats score ... next ISU .... difference
Belbib/Agosto ............. 216.07 ........ 203.00 ....... 13.07
Davis/White ............... 206.82 ........ 199.45 ........ 7.37
Navarro/Bommentre .. 187.94 ........ 180.65 ........ 7.29
Samuelson/Bates ...... 175.16 ........ 181.66 ....... -6.50
wester/Barantsev ....... 169.37 ........ 141.06 ....... 28.31
2009
Davis/White ................ 201.68 ........ 192.39 ........ 9.29
Samuelson/Bates ...... 181.64 ........ 180.79 ........ 0.85
Navarro/Bommentre .. 176.30 ........ 151.82 ....... 24.48
Hubbell/Hubbell .......... 171.51 ........ 161.34 ....... 10.17
Matthews/Gislason ...... This team has no ISU events.
As you can see, there were only 4 instances out of 39 where the ISU score is higher. This indicates there is some kind of inflation going on. The average inflation of the 39 samples is 15.47 points. This is fairly significant. I don't know if this is actually a "problem" of any kind, it's just very interesting.