My premise is that Hanyu can beat Kozuka by more than a good chance if the National judges are "fair". However Kozuka is always in the position to be "favored" by the federation politics and special considerations. His sponsor is Toyota and coach (Nobuo Sato) is one of the most influential man in Japanese skating community. Especially in this year, Asada is in very precarious situations by her own fault. If she couldn't pick up her forms by Nationals to some degree, they may need to consider putting her off the worlds team. In that case, I predict they will do whatever it takes to give a berth to Kozuka, as returning favors to Sato Sensei for holding the bag (= Asada).
Can you cite some examples where Kozuka was "favored" by the federation politics and special considerations?