Will '05 World's Results Predict Ladies Olympic Final Results?

[Rgirl]

'05 Worlds Pairs: 1) Totmianina/Marinin; 2) Zhang/Zhang; 3) Petrova/Tikhonov*.
*Shen/Zhao not entered at Worlds due to injury.
'06 Olympics Pairs: 1) Totmianina/Marinin; 2) Zhang/Zhang; 3) Shen/Zhao.
*Petrova/Tikhonov finished EDIT: fifth at Olympics.

'05 Worlds Men: 1) Lambiel*; 2) Buttle; 3) Lysecek**.
*Plushenko not entered at Worlds due to injury.
'06 Olympics Men: 1) Plushenko; 2) Lambiel; 3) Buttle.
**Lysecek finished fourth at Olympics.

'05 Worlds Dance: 1) Navka/Kostamarov; 2) Belbin/Agosto; 3) Grushina/Goncharov.
'06 Olympics Dance: 1) Navka/Kostamarov; 2) Belbin/Agosto; 3) Grushina/Goncharov.

'05 Worlds Ladies: 1) Slutskaya; 2) Cohen; 3) EDIT: Kostner.
'06 Olympics Ladies (AFTER SP ONLY): 1) Cohen; 2) Slutskaya; 3) Arakawa.
Kwan forced to withdraw from Olympics due to injury.

In the Pairs and Men's events, World's results predicted two out of the three podium spots. In Pairs, Worlds predicted Olympic gold and silver with Shen/Zhao out with injury. In Men's, Worlds predicted Olympic silver and bronze with Plushenko out with injury.

In the Dance event, Worlds predicted Olympic gold, silver, and bronze with no medal contenders out with injury.

In the Ladie's event, will World final results correlate with Olympic finals???

A few things of note: Cohen's '04/05 SP, though the same music and the same structure, had a higher point value due to changes in certain elements. Jumps and FW were the same, but spins and the spiral sequence were more difficult. Also, since both last season and even since USN, about a two-second repeat of the penultimate musical phrase allowed Cohen more time to complete her final combo spin and end right on the music. At Worlds she got a time violation for finishing late. OTOH, at Olys her wonky 2Axel didn't allow her to do the catch-foot on the run-out.

Arakawa's SP used different music from last season to this, but the structure of her SP was essentially the same. However, like Cohen's SP, Tarasova greatly improved the point value on the spins and spiral sequence, and planned a 3/3 for the opening combo, which Shizza was unable to do due to her landing on the 3Lutz. In particular, like a change in Cohen's spiral sequence, Tarasova changed Shizza's from leg lift followed by catch-foot in same position to catch-foot followed by maintaining the leg in same position at same height. Shizza did it in the Y position. Cohen did hers in the Fan position (leg lifted in front).

Also note for Arakawa that Tarasova changed her LP music from the Chopin to "Nessum Dorma." It's Italy folks and Tarasova is one smart cookie--wrapped in many furs, natch. I loved Shizza skating to the Chopin, but I think she will skate better to ND and the judges will like it better, too.

I found the changes to Arakawa's and Cohen's elements in the SP both aesthetically more pleasing and very smart in terms of point value.

As for Kostner, unless almost everyone ahead of her tanks in the final, I don't see her repeating her '05 World bronze. Looks like a combination of Kostner's inconsistency and the pressure of skating in front of a very demonstrative home crowd just got to her. Poor thing.

I'll comment on the unfortunate changes in Miki Ando's SP in the "What did Heiss do to Miki Ando?" thread.

So what do folks think? Will the '05 Worlds results predict at least two out of the three Olympic podium spots? Also, any other comments about how the ladies skated last season as compared to this season, including changes in music, choreography, and performance quality?

Rgirl

 

[Rgirl]

So nobody's gonna take the bait, huh?

C'mon, Joe. Your correct predictions are legendary.

Rgirl

 

[hockeyfan228]

I'm confused about a couple of things.

Petrova/Tikhonov were 5th at the Olympics by almost 5 points below 4th place Pang/Tong, who missed bronze by a sliver.

You posted

'05 Worlds Ladies*: 1) Slutskaya; 2) Cohen; 3) Ando.
*Final result same as SP result.
'06 Olympics Ladies (AFTER SP ONLY): 1) Cohen; 2) Slutskaya; 3) Arakawa.
Kwan forced to withdraw from Olympics due to injury.

Ando was 3rd after the quali round, but because of her 7th place finish in the SP, was 4th after the SP, behind Slutskaya, Cohen, and Kostner, with Kwan right behind her in 5th. On the SP results alone, it was Slutskaya, Cohen, Kwan, Kostner, Arakawa, Sokolova, Ando. Ando ended in 6th place overall, with Kostner winning the bronze medal.

Whether this will predict the Ladies' results is hard to say, although Slutskaya and Cohen are well-placed to repeat on the podium. For Kostner, it would take a near-perfect skate and a series of melt-downs for her to make up a 13-point deficit. If you are looking at patterns, it is Gedevanishvili or Meissner who might be the equivalent of Shen/Zhao, as the only other top competitor who didn't complete World Championships in Moscow -- and Meissner was there physically -- but that's really stretching it.

 

[Rgirl]

Thanks for the corrections, as usual, Hockeyfan. Though I did correct the '05 Ladies bronze medalist to Kostner, but the edit didn't take. I've been having that problem. But thanks for pointing it out.

No wonder nobody responded.

Will try editing my post again to correct it.

Rgirl

 

[Rgirl]

Okay, I'll reply to my own thread, lol.

Based on the Ladies results of both '04 and '05 Worlds, here are my predictions for tonight.

1. Slutskaya
2. Cohen
3. Arakawa

I had a really tough time deciding between Cohen and Arakawa for silver and bronze and I'd be happy with either. I finally went on Tarasova's reputation for wearing out her female skaters and Sasha being back with Nicks. However, Shizza skates after Sasha, so she could go to town on the 3/3s.

With Irina skating last, I think she is going to will herself into first place no matter what everybody else has done.

It's going to be another late night!

Rgirl

 

[soogar]

I'm confused by your post. Tarasova had nothing to do with Shizuka before these games. Shiz dumped Tarasova before Japanese Nationals and is now coached by Nikolai Morosov. Considering the way Tarasova dumped on Shizuka when she started losing, is TAT going to take credit for Shiz's OGM?