Yeah but US Junior Ladies have been getting worse over the last 2-3 years which isn't good. Not winning a medal at all is worrisome to say the least. Kaitlyn does seem to have some potential but will she suddenly have a big growth spurt and can she rotate her jumps is the big question.
2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating
- Thread starter R.D.
- Start date
Yeah but US Junior Ladies have been getting worse over the last 2-3 years which isn't good. Not winning a medal at all is worrisome to say the least. Kaitlyn does seem to have some potential but will she suddenly have a big growth spurt and can she rotate her jumps is the big question.
- Joined
- Feb 24, 2012
USA is looking ffine. The juniors hae time. They Ashley and Gracie with experience. And Karen though young is already a medal contender and that does not factor in Mirai, Mariah, not to mention Brady, Caroline Zhang, Angela. Things are looking fine; there is time for the skaters to grow up.
Not so much us getting worse as Japan and Russia getting a lot better. 4 years ago Alexia's score of 149 could've gotten her a bronze easy. Vivian's score of 177 would've gotten her gold. Our girls are getting much better. I follow intermediate, novice and junior levels. There's a lot of talent coming up the ranks. Emily Zhang is only in intermediate but can land all her triples including a 3S+1/2+3S combo in the back half. In 2011, Karen could only land two triples in competition. The bonus system encourages skaters to get higher level jumps. I can't wait for some to get just one more year of experience. Like Audrey Shin who is 12 underrotates but is now being coached by Rafael Artunian.
I'm optimistic this year. I think we have some bronze coming our way as well as a good chance to get our three slots back at JW in 2019. But wins will be a hard with all the 3A and quads japan and Russia are going to bring.
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2014
Agree, in general. US ladies aren't getting worse as much as Japan, Russia, and probably S. Korea are getting better.
Just due to the systems in place, there won't be much dominance by US ladies AT ALL. But one or two might make a breakthrough/
- Joined
- Oct 30, 2012
It does not sound good. We thought the US national was the rock bottom but it seems we don't even know where the bottom is now. We thought Marina is the miracle worker but so far, between Frank and her, Gracie takes a steeper downward dive. The only logical explanation is Gracie is injured recently. But if she is, she should not be doing the shows. :noshake:
I am not too optimstic on the Juniors for two reasons - the did not start under the bonus system AND there are not alot of them. At a recent competition we went to, there were move Seniors competing then Juniors. Really stange.
I get really positive when I look at the Novices. The bonus system started with the Novices and alot of the top ones try to max out the bonus system. If you look the competition protocols, you will notice that Novices tend to try tougher jumps than those that at a level above. I heard that rumors that a couple of really good jumping "Novices" planned to bypass this level to get easier level above - let's see how if anyone decides to do that.
Top intermediates (and juveniles) are also pushing bonus system. And at those levels, they are getting get of the PCS "tranisition" score which will work in favor of the jumpers. At the lower IJS level, skaters could either do transisitions or jumps, but usually not both.
Actually, skaters like Kaitlyn, Alexia, Ashley Lin, Ashley Kim and Starr all competed under the bonus system. It's why both Kaitlyn and Alexia of them started the tradition if having triple triples at novice level. And why all of them have clean triple triples as juniors as their first year, which is very uncommon. Kaitlyn got her own 3T+3T at the sectionals of 2015. Then she just added on even tougher combos the next season. She really is remarkable.
The truth is what Kaitlyn did last year is rare. In fact Kaitlyn herself is a very rare skater. I'll explain.
I'm used to seeing young skaters spend 2 years at a level while mastering the content. It's just normal. 9 year olds will often spend two years in Juvenile while the master IJS. Then sometimes two years in intermediate training their first triple. A lot spend two years in novice master all their triples. And it's often by their second year of junior before they ever manage a triple triple. Kaitlyn by passed all of that. She mastered her jumps very quickly. She learned triple triples in record speed. It's not common for 1st year juniors to have all the jump she already has. Nor is it common for them to win nationals their first year.
What's more amazing is between January and May of last year Kaitlyn didn't even have a coach! She was practicing alone that whole time with no program or a coach to teach her new things. In a month of having coaches she was beating everyone handily with the highest score of any junior that year.
She's not without flaws, obviously. She needs to work on her consistency, spins, and her components. But the best part is that she's only 13. She has no choice but to focus on juniors and therefore rising of to the levels of the Russians/Japanese/Koreans. Barring injury or another coaching issue, she's going to make some waves for sure.
- Joined
- Sep 8, 2016
What is this Gracie gold article controversy I heard about today? I'm trying to get a link to this so-called article but can't find one. Was there something negative written about her?
I haven't seen anything about Gracie directly, but in the past week in Illinois there has been negative publicity about legal issues involving the medical license of her father. Since it doesn't directly relate to skating, I won't link it here. But the situation (dating back a year) could definitely be affecting her mental state & even possibly the family's financial ability to support Gracie's skating, let alone that of Gracie & sister.
True but when they were Juvs, the bonus system was not in place (unless they skipped multiple levels).
I don't think most people understand how much the bonus system has changed the lower IJS levels. A couple of years back, only the top juv girl had a double axel at Nationals but now the majority of girls at juv Nationals have a doulbe axel combo. Same with triples at the Intermediate level. Now we are seeing triple triples at the Novice level, which I think is thanks to the bonus system. If I remember correctly, Gracie was targeted as the future of USFS because she was doing triple triples as a Junior while the majority of Seniors did not have one.
I completely understand what you mean. In spite of what detractors think we NEEDED this bonus system. US ladies were going backwards. In 2014 when both Starr and Kaitlyn were Juveniles they both ended two clean 2A in their free. The winner had no 2A at all. In 2015, no girl on the juvenile podium had a 2A! In fact only one girl competed with a 2A and it was under rotated. In intermediate one of the medalist didn't even have a 2A or any triples. Plus the winner of novice only had two triples. Bradie won with no triple triple, the first lady since Gracie gold to win without attempting a triple triple. Being artistic and having strong components was now the focus rather than developing jumps while their young.
But I saw a difference immediately. So many more 2A and fewer component only girls at juvenile. Girls like the Emily Zhangs (there are two) with all their triples in intermediate. Triple triples in novice. That amazing and exactly what we needed.
But it's not enough. Systematically more thing are needed to push our ladies further. We need a 3A national champ. Something that will force all coaches to focus on advance jumps. We need the challenger series that they are planning to add higher level competitiln for novices and juniors that have out grown the competition in their area. We need to have more of our top coaches coach more ladies rather than just a few. There's a lot more that can be done. But I think were moving in the right direction.
Well this is what I observed. The first levels are prepreliminary, preliminary, and pre juvenile. Prepres can be any age but are mostly under ten. Same with preliminary.
Most of the girls I followed skipped pre-juvenile and went straight to juvenile. That's the first level that can go to nationals and the first that uses IJS. The youngest age is 9. You won't see many old than 12 in this level.
Next is intermediate, the first level your allowed to so triples. Girls are 10 and 11 here.
Novice is next. This is the level where you're given a bonus for triple triples. They can also be selected to compete international at advanced novice competitions. Girls range from 12 to 14. Some older girls have won national titles though.
Finally there's junior. Girls are normally 14-17. It's rare but some twelve year olds have done well in juniors. Kaitlyn is one of the first non-qualifiers to win in a long time.
Typically girls will go senior whenever their ready even before they've had any junior success. Mirai went at 14 (and won!).
To be honest most of those skaters are not contenders. Milrai and Caroline are near the end of their skating careers and Zhang while she had a nice comeback last season is not the answer and someone like Angela has never broken through and she's not an up and comer anymore. The fact is after the Olympics the US could see Gracie, Ashley and Mirai retire from competing leaving the US with maybe Karen as a threat internationally and not much else. The lackluster Juniors of the last few years is why their is no one under 18 that can contend with the Russian and Japanese girls with the exception of Karen Chen.
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2014
Man, the fact that Polina was never really able to break through (held back by slowness and her programs, IMO) is such a bummer. In 2014 she was really seen as part of the future of the US ladies. But maybe after all this time off she's improved in the ways she needed to.
I think your "average" age is a bit on the low side.
Last year I knew 3 juv girls that went to Nationals and all 3 were either 10 or 11. At the Intermediate level, I know 2 girls that went to Nationals and both were 12. And for what it is worth, all 5 of these girls that went to Nationals last year are moving up to the next level this year. Remember that a top skater at one level is probably better than the majority of skaters at the next level up.
I think the bonus system is shifting the age and the level progression.
I would disagree on the comment of not seeing alot of 13 years olds at the juv level. We saw alot of them but they are usually not the top skaters. Exceptions do exists - there was one 13-year old that reached Eastern last year.
- Joined
- Apr 24, 2017
Thank you! :agree:
I do agree that there are lots of diversity in the levels. Last year a 13 year old placed at juvenile. I've seen 14 year olds in intermediate as well.
I think I was saying the age that they may start a level. Nine and ten seem to be the age where girls start juvenile. Then they move up as they are ready. Sometimes they stay a year or maybe two. It depends on their own skills and their own desires.
Of course this was before the bonus system. Now older skaters may have an advantage by having higher level jumps. Of course they already had the maturity factor that helped them win in the past.
I'm seeing more younger skaters master top level jumps. Although they're often underrotated. But Emily Zhang attempted all her triples in 2016 and nearly all her underrotated. This year their clean. Hopefully that will happen with many ladies as they rise through the ranks.
- Joined
- Jul 9, 2014
Hopefully our young skaters don't read this site. Seriously, you just can't tell until the skaters become Seniors. Some will get there sooner than others but, like Lip, there's no guarantee they will stay there. I have often mentioned Angela Wang as one of the most promising Juniors I had ever seen....She still hasn't medaled as a Senior.
Look at what's happened with "Late Bloomer" Ashley Wagner. Compare her to Gracie who was landing huge combo's as a Junior. I see no benefit in pushing a skater to do these difficult combo's, especially backloaded, before their bodies can handle it. I believe my fav, Maria Butyrskaya would have some words of wisdom for those of you who think our Juniors are behind the rest of the world. IMO, it's not a big deal.
Of the 3 Juv girls that went to Nationals last years, 2 were 2nd year Juvs and the 3rd was a 3rd year. So repeating at that level tends to be common.
It will be interesting to see what happens next year when the Juv age gets lowered by a year. My guess is the overall qualify at that level will probably remain about the same.
I really think the bonus system will pay off over the next couple of years.
